The truth is, prior to moving to Vegas, I had no clue about the Run-Line, in fact the only time that I ever heard of a point-spread in baseball in my early years, was when Clemens was -300 and rather than allow credit players to take a shot at me I would make him -2runs instead. Then eventually I came out to Vegas and since it was August, baseball was the sport of choice for the "sharps" who employed me and that was my very first encounter with the Run-Line...
Back then, we rarely ever layed it, and in fact I can probably count on 1hand the amount of times we took -1.5runs over my years as a runner as the main wager. Of course the Run-Line gave us the opportunity to scalp at times, but I am refering to using -1.5 as our main bet. Instead I found myself taking +1.5 many times and actually did well with it but then again, back then if the books had their way, from May to Sept, except for the NBA Playoffs, they would have prefered if I left town because in MLB, they stood absolutely no chance of beating us...
Eventually I became friends with many of the other runners, since I saw them more than I saw my own family back then and that was when I first started seeing the positive and negatives associated with Run-Lines...so many times the order would come in to lay -140 on a team and within 30min, it was -175 all across town and since there was no offshore, if you tried to hit your local with it later in the day when they started working...he would probably be using 9 or 11 on the game...I'm sure you remember when MLB lines were offered in that format....so as I sat there awaiting the next order to come in I would get a chance to speak with the others and found out that so many of them were using the RL as a way to avoid the vig when they wanted to get down for themselves...what you need to remember is that our job was to move the play for our boss first, and after that, we were free to do what we wanted for ourselves...
So you can imagine the dilema we each faced each day because we knew the sharp side, but unfortunately couldn't get the sharp number for ourselves...so many of these runners were using the RL as a way to do that and over the years, I saw so many times the look on their faces when the STEAM won by 1 and everyone back at the office was happy, except the people placing the winning wagers.
Eventually as you all know, I went off on my own and began capping my own plays which of course I owe to the education I got working under others and since I was calling the shots, I now had the Run-Line at my disposal and even though I do not use it as much as many capper I know, there still are times when I know its definately the right move to make, and also other times that I see and hear others taking it, and I just know its wrong....so I decided to do a little work...well actually I had one of the guys who helps me do this as a project...and here is what we have found as far as the Run-Line is concerned...
First we found that a single run will win the game 27.8% of the time....but of course that wasn't enough, so I had us all go back in and dig up some details and here is what we've got...
In the last 3yrs, 31.4% of ALL HOME WINS have come by only 1run....and 23.6 % of ALL ROAD WINS have come by 1run....the discrepency is obviously based on the fact that when the game is tied and the home team scores...the game is over, while on the flip-side, the road team can keep on scoring when tied...
From all of our research, another very important fact was discovered...unlike other sports, where home teams win at a much higher rate, in MLB, the HOME TEAM only wins the game about 54% of the time...in the NFL its around 58%, NBA around 60%, and NHL around 63%...so the reason that is so important when discussing the RL is because the oddsmaker will definately be taking that into consideration when making the price...
The other thing we found which was very important is the fact that the Total that is being offered on the game plays a huge role in the price, which is obvious because you should get better compensated when laying -1.5 on a Total of 7, than in one where the Total is 10.5, ...below I will break down the numbers we found for RUN-LINE Results over the past 3+ yrs...
TOTAL RD TM WINS HM TM WINS % RD TM by 1 % HM TM by 1
7 41.8 % 58.2 % 31% 38.5 %
7.5 43.6 % 56.4 % 24% 36.7 %
8 48.5 % 51.5 % 28.2 % 33.1 %
8.5 46.6 % 53.4 % 23.8 % 30.5 %
9 45.5 % 54.5 % 22.2 % 30.6 %
9.5 44.3 % 55.7 % 23.8 % 30.8 %
10 49.4 % 50.6 % 26.2 % 27.7 %
10.5 43.4 % 56.6 % 20.3 % 27.4 %
11 43.7 % 56.3 % 20.3 % 31.5 %
These are the figures for RUN-LINES in MLB over the past 3+ yrs and because they have remained consistant, I feel we have enough of a sample to draw many different conclusions to help us best determine whether or not, when we break down the price being offered, and compare the likelyhood of a particular outcome....whether or not applying the RL will prove to show us a better return over time than going ahead and laying the ML and swallowing the vig....because if you remember and I feel that I should make a Blog Post about this topic...you can actually lay -200 and still have value...there is no law that value only exists in Dogs...that is another one of those bettors misconceptions that I am always refering to....
I hope that this helps you a bit through the next couple of months of the MLB Season and I am sure that this is a topic that can definately get a lot more coverage because as sports betting continued to grow and hit the mainstream like poker has...you will see a lot of people trying to take advantage of the RL without fully knowing the details and instead, only concerned with the pretty price its offering...and as that happens, remember, the oddsmakers will have to adjust to compensate....kind of like the pros at the poker tables had to do for all the new "dead money" that was entering tournaments...and as sharp and successful bettors...we will be able to take full advantage of it because unlike the masses, we have forced ourselves to learn whether or not value is actually present....Please feel free to add your thoughts to this post because maybe we can expand on this subject much more over the next few weeks, and I am also very eager to find out how many of you use the RUN-LINE....best of luck, Vegas-Runner...
great info runner thanks for sharing!
Ever thought about launching a betting school/education program? Thanks for the insight VR
Guys, you are really welcome and like I said....feel free to offer some suggestions for topics that you may like to see me cover because I truely enjoy getting the opportunity to discuss anything related to sports wagering...I feel that throughout my career, I have been so lucky to have worked with men who at the time had so much more experience than me, but were willing to answer all of my questions and took the time to really share their knowledge as well....and for me to get a chance to do the same is something that I would love to do and these Blogs have afforded me the opportunity...the only problem I have is trying to think of a topic because there is just so much that I don't know where to begin....VR
read something the other day to play biggest fav each day on RL......think its 3-1 or 4-0 this week and u end up layin only 120 or less or +110 or so unless really huge fav...played LAD the other night over Cin 4-1
-2.5 Runline is very handy and I strongly recommend all bettors to stay away by +1.5 RL. It's too juicy and does not pay the risk. Go with - RL if odds are lower than -140.
take me under your wing, and teach me to pick winners like you do haha.....
Guys, thanks for your responses and I really like to see what you all think of these topics because so many times I have been able to pick up some valuable stuff from so many of you...VR
damo05...I will continue to try and pass along as much knowledge and experience that I have to you guys just like others did for me...so please feel free to ask about anything that you would like to see discussed and I will try to cover it, Thanks and best of luck, VR...
I use runlines based on what the 2 teams have done recently. If in the last 10 games each(total of 20), the final scores are won buy 1 run , say like 3 times in those 20 games, then I will usually play it. That means 17 of 20 games were decided by more than 1 run.
Since we are only a few weeks away from both the NBA & NHL Playoffs coming to an end, which means
Thanks VR,
Good Info !
How do You determine Value vs Risk,Price, & Payout?
(especially in lines like -200)
Thanks Again
I do very well playing small home dogs and laying -1.5 +180 or more..... Played Oak -1.5 +200 and won ez, I figure the risk of losing by 1 run is well worth the +180 or better odds...... gl
I agree with Dommy that if you are going to look to lay the RL, then you definately should look to do it on those games where the number isn't very high at all for maximum value...too many sports bettors are only willing to consider it when the ML is too high and the oddsmaker has already considered this so there will be much less value than if you were able to apply it to one of your capped games whose ML isn't very high...
Games, when it comes to weighing value vs risk/reward I believe that it is going to depend on the sport...when we are speaking about those sports that have a "spread", then the value I seek will depend on the work I do on a game after I find that the number being offered differs from the number I have created for that same game...but when you talk about sports which offer a ML, then that changes things a lot...many cappers use different methods to create what they think the actual ML should be and then compare it to what is being offered and work from there...and I also employ sort of the same methods I think, and probably many of the same equations...but I truely think that it also comes down to what I always have called "feel"...and the very best sports bettors that I have ever known have an excellent sense of "feel" for a line and where the value lies as soon as they see it and then spend the rest of their day trying to find supporting data...VR
VR, I'd like to hear your thoughts on taking the Runline +1.5. If you play that on almost any game that goes beyond 9 innings, you're definitely going to be winning a lot. So if you cap a game you think it will be a very low scoring affair and also a close game, wouldn't it be better to take the +1.5?
B, I agree with you 100%...I have always felt that the +1.5 is a very good bet in certain spots and most bettors don't look for it because when they play a dog, they want it to pay nicely if it wins...for myself, I don't look at it like that at all and always try to look at every possible way I can to get the best of this market...when looking to take the +1.5, I will always make sure that I capp the total because just like you said, its a much better weapon when you expect less than 7 total runs to be scored in a game...
The other reason that I feel recreational bettors stay away from taking the +1.5 is because of the price you have to pay for it many times when a team isn't a huge dog...but again, I wasn't taught to think that way while I was learning this game. I mean, I personally wagered obscene amounts of money on some pretty big chalk for many sharps back then, so for me...it was about value and the right side...the price they hang up does nothing to sway me or keep me from a play if I feel I am getting the best of it...even if I look at the board and I see a -260...trust me, thats not going to stop me from looking to see if its a winner...although now that I have the responsibility of so many other good people who are following along, who haven't been with me all these years....so I don't know if they are real far ahead enough to be able to handle those type of wagers...which is why they are so rare for me these days...
But its like I always say...there is no such thing as a bad bet/sucker bet....only a bad bettor/sucker...because if you are sharp, you should usually find yourself in situations which aren't bad bets regardless of how the public perceives them...
How ironic we got one of these tonight...lol...best of luck brotherm VR
I'm glad to hear you don't think it's a bad bet. The only reason I asked you about this was because yesterday the King Maker had a play on The Blue Jays as a big dog. I took a look at the lines and saw you could grab the Runline +1.5 at -130 and thought to myself wouldn't that be the much smarter bet. I know it pays big if they win outrite, but what if they don't win. While I didn't actually place the wager as I had enough action going for me, it would've been a winner had I placed it because as you know Toronto had a decent lead only to lose the game by 1 run in the bottom of the 9th.