Now that we are well into the MLB Season I will try and cover some of the many factors that I consider each day when I begin handicapping, which I feel are by far the most important. Lets start it off with one of the keys...a teams "Bull-Pen"...I truely believe that it is one of the most important factors that many do not put enough time into, and definately don't keep thorough enough records. Besides it not being all that difficult, it will also surely save you from so many so called "bad-beats" that actually may not have been that bad of a beat....
When I begin to take a look at a team's bull-pen, even though I begin with the overall stats of the entire pen, and then take a closer look at those pitchers who were recently used, as well as those I feel will definately be available...that is only the very beginning.
I have found that ever since I began breaking each team's bull-pen down into both, those pitchers used from the 6th inning on (middle relief), and also into those pitchers who are used only as late inning and closing situations. The tricky part is determining the type of "set-up" man the team has and then trying to correctly apply his stats to the correct group because doing so will have an impact on your succes.
By breaking the bull-pen down into these various catagories, it allows me, the handicapper to get a much clearer picture of exactly what I am working with, and by that I mean.... depending on the starting pitcher, and the team being faced...I am in a much better position to determine what may happen based when I have to apply what I know about the pen. Because if Jake Peavy is on the mound, my middle-releif may have very little, if no influence in the outcome of the game. So why would any capper take the total statistics of the bull-pen into account. Now that was just one of the many different type of "reasoning scenario's" that I feel each capper must have for the game he will be wagering on.
Finally, the last topic that I feel really helped me to apply the correct stats when I take the bull-pen into account for a wager is..."Knowing the Manager"...when it comes to MLB, the managers make so many crucial decisions throughout the game that you have to have at the very least, a minimal understanding of how he will manage in certain situations. Will he leave his "ace" in even if he gave up 5 runs by the 4th inn ...because if he won't and I think this starter is getting rocked early, then I need to account for those "long" middle relievers who we usually only see in these siuations.
Knowing each team's bull-pen may take some time and it will surely take some work...but it is just so vital when trying to pick anMLB winner and if you are going to take the time to include it in your work then I really want to stress that by breaking the bull-pen down into the different situations that each team uses them in, and knowing what each manager is likely going to do...you will surely raise your winning percentage and with it...your bankroll. This was something that the sharps had actually begun doing even before the oddsmakers were, and many plays were made "Steam" only because of the influence the bull-pen was going to have on the game. Always make sure to include the "Overall pen", "Middle pen", "Late/Close" just like they when you include the bull-pen into your work.