Tony George

MLB First Half Stats to Consider

2012-07-09T15:10:17Z

MLB First Half Stats to Consider

BY Tony George

The first half of bases is in the books as the All Star Game in my hometown is underway. More than a few surprises in the first half as always, and some heated races innumerous divisions should provide plenty of fireworks in the second half of the season. I will make this blog short and sweet and lay out some teams here who you need to keep an eye on for moneyline opportunities in the second half of the season.

Top 5 Moneyline Teams in first half

Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Washington
NY Mets
NY Yankees

Top 5 Worst Teams against the Moneyline in first half

Philadelphia
Colorado
Milwaukee
San Diego
Houston

Top 5 Teams on OVERS

Philadelphia
NY Mets
Milwaukee
Colorado and Houston TIE
Boston

Top 5 Teams on UNDERS

Oakland
LA Angels
Cincy – NY Yankees -TIE
Kansas City- Detroit –TIE

Please note that the overall team stats do not always equate to wins and losses. Only 3 of the Top 5 moneyline teams lead their division. The Pirates, Yankees and Nationals. None of the teams in the Top 5 in Overs lead their division and it is more of a tale tell sign that their pitching is lacking, as evidenced by the Phillies being the worst cover team in bases.

Texas and the NY Yankees have the best records in MLB with 52 wins each, followed by Washington and Pittsburgh in win totals. NY has the biggest division lead at 7 games over second place Baltimore in all of Baseball and the Yanks, Rangers, Nats and Pirates are the top 4 teams in bases in my humble opinion. The AL Central is the weakest division in baseball right now, and to think Kansas City is 10 games from reaching .500 as a team and still only 9 games out of first place in this division is a sure sign anyone can win this division with the White Sox currently leading it.

One things you can count on is teams playing true to form in the second half. The stats do not lie and always look at the bullpens ERA’s, On Base Percentage and Slugging percentage. The bullpens determine the outcome of more games than do those of the starters. If you look at starting pitchers ERA, many times under 3, and then see their overall wins and losses, you are scratching your head. It is one of two things, no run support with a bad offense or no decent bullpen to back them up.

The "Importance Factor" to Teams on Monday Night Football

2011-10-04T16:57:00Z

By Tony George

I was aksed numerous times last year and many times this year about how my prowess on Monday Night Football, which is well documneted, is at such a high win rate. I am not bragging on this, just simply stating a fact. I am 5-0 this season, went 11-5 last season and my winning percentage dating back 5 years is 63% ATS or better in EACH of the past 5 NFL Seasons on MNF. Many think it is one of the hardest to handicap, I simply do not. I thought I would share a story that might provide some insight into my take and approach.

I can equate my NFL Playoff record to the same take I have on Monday Night Football. Going 12-5 ATS in the Playoffs in 2010-11 was 1 win better than I had in MNF last year. WHY? Well I have an answer folks. In 2005 I was one of the select few at a BoDog convention in Las Vegas to be a featured speaker at the convention and I was asked to present Internet based solutions for offering selections online. Long story short, I found myself in the green room, for lack of a better term, with the biggest featured speaker of the entire convention, the legend himself, Joe Montana.

After we exchanged hello's and got to talking about my Nebraska roots and he and Roger Craig and Tom Rathman's success's in the past at San Fran, and his Nebraska connection and friends, the floor was open to visit without looking like I was star struck (which actually I was). I asked him point blank, "since you are at sports gaming convention, I am asking you about Monday Night Football. What is the importance to a team in terms of winning that game? Do you know who is the favorite and who is the underdog, and do you know what the line was when you played in them?".

The answer he gave me confirmed my belief that the NFL Monday Night Football is one of the biggest games of the year for the teams who are playing. They know the line, they know 20+ million people people are watching worldwide, and they know the importance of winning that game. In essence he told me even if you are playing a weak sister for some reason, or percieved weak sister, you are going to get their A Game and on the other side of the coin, we are going to give them ours. He said there was very little difference between a Monday Night Football and a Playoff game in terms of focus and preparation. That shocked me but the haze lifted in terms of why so many games are tight and even amazing on Monday Night Football. Sure there is the occasional blowout, but for the most part many of us watch well into the night to see if our teams covers in what was expected to be a whitewash by one team.

As we are all aware of, who handicap and wager this sport, many teams week in and week out are totally unpredicatble. It is Jekyl and Hyde week to week. That is why the NFL is a very frustarting sport. Look like a world champ one week, and chump the next. Teams on Monday Night Football bring their A Game, there are no surprises. Just like in the NFL Playoffs. No one is taking the day or night off. No one is not going to perform to their utmost capability, and everyone CARES about winning the game no matter what it takes. That narrows the gap amongst teams and the stats are more reliable and there is lots less of a surprise at games end. Just like the playoffs. The stats do not lie, the man to man matchups are true to form, and the battle in the trenches is epic.

One other thing he told me, is this" Remember we all are pro players getting paid. The difference between a division leader and a team at the bottom of the division is very little. We all had 300 pound guys, linebackers that spit nails, and WRs that could run 4.3 Fourty Yard Dash times and QB's that can throw it on a rope 30 to 40 yards downfield. It is really a game of inches and preparation, nothing more and nothing less".

That in a nutshell tells one who handicaps that the intangibles are more limited in games of this nature. While special teams, penalties, and turnovers still play a major part in the outcome of almost 100% of the games played, they are more limited due to the importance and focus headed into a Monday Night Game, and I for one have always taken that into strong consideration both on MNF and the Playoffs and have success in doing so, especially taking dogs in the right scenario.

Why take the Skins at Dallas with Grossman at the helm on the road, why take the pathetic Colts at red hot Tampa with an unproven QB? Read between the lines gents, some serious food for thought.

The Big 12 Season Preview

2011-08-15T19:10:00Z

By Tony George

A new horizon for the Big 12 Conference in the 2011 season, as the mighty Huskers have ventured north into the Big 10 conference taking out a major force to be recokned with in this conference and removing a huge obstacle for many teams from the south, as well as nemisis Missouri breathing easier, and the Colorado Buffs limped into the new Pac 12 conference taking away a guaranteed win for many teams and offering the PAC 12 a temporary patsy for the short term. There are 5 teams in the USA coaches’ poll out of the Big 12 in the Top 25, and Okalhoma is ranked first in the nation.

There will be no season ending conference championship game in this conference, not until they have 12 teams and divy it up into North and South divisions again, so it is winner take all in the regular season standings this season. This is a solid conference overall, it should be noted as many as 8 Heisman Trophy candidates are in this conference and chances are that award more than likely will come out of the Big 12 this season.

Offense will be showcased all season with some big time stud quarterbacks front row and centrer, some exciting skill players also will share the limelight. But it will be the team with the best Defense that ultimatley wins this conference and perhaps a BCS Bowl Championship bid. It would not surprise me again if 2 teams out of this conference make it to a BCS Bowl game and one of them contends for a national title.

The conference lacks overall parity, but it is top heavy with very good and experienced football teams with good coaches, and high octane offenes with playmakers all over the field on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma is the Las Vegas odds on favorite to win this conference and play for a national title, but I assure you the path is not easy, and while Texas is way down this season, Okie State and Texas A&M are way up, and Mizzou will make it a difficult win as well, especially in Columbia for all who visit. There are some landmines as well with Robert Griffen and Baylor and Texas Tech is always a hair rasing experience when playing in Lubbock. The bottom half is about even in this conference so you may see some very close games even between the also rans, but the Top 5 teams in this conference are Top 25 ranked teams overall and at least 3 of them in the top 9 in country.

My breakdowns are in condensed form this year, but very well researched and should hold true to form unless injuries ravage a team, here we go: THE RANKINGS

Offensive Units

1. Oklahoma2. Oklahoma State

3. Texas AM

Defensive Units

1. Oklahoma2. Texas AM3. Missouri

Oklahoma Sooners - 1

Bob Stoops can win the whole shooting match this season on the national landscape but winning the Big 12 is a huge feat in the process. The Sooners are ranked number 1 in ther nation to open the season. OU has a stud QB in Laundry Jones, a great playmaer in Broyles at WR, an awesome defense, and of course depth and experience. They also won a BCS Bowl game last year albeit it was against U Conn in a snoozer.

Returners: 8 on offense, and 6 on defenseStrength: Passsing game and playmakers at WR. Linebacking unit best in Big 12

Weakness: Defensive line, inexpereince at Running back

Overall OU’s biggest issue is their schedule. An early game at Florida State who wants some pay back after a 31-7 beating last year at the hands of the Sooners in Norman, and a lot of presure on Laundry Jones at QB to win a Heisman is also a distraction. They also have Missouri after FSU on the road at home, but expect Mizzou to have the Sooners full attention after beating them last year in Columbia. They have the depth overall in skill positions to compete with anyone in the nation, an offense that can play from behind, and while they may give up some yards on defense, overall they will not give up huge plays or allow teams with OUs skill at linebacker to rack up huge yards rushing the ball.

If you can out score OU then you can beat them, and there are maybe 2 teams on their schedule that can do that. A home game against Texas AM November 5 will be a huge test, and the big game, featuring 4 Heisman canidates will be December 3 in Stillwater against in state rival and very talented contender Oklhoma State. They get past Okie state either undefeated or with one loss and you may have a BCS Championship Bowl contender. This will be a close race between the top 3 teams in the Big 12, a SLIGHT lean to OU to get it done. I assure you the path this year will not be easy for OU, even without a championship game to deal with.

Texas A&M Aggies - 2

I never was a huge fan of Mike Sherman, but I give him credit, he has flat out recruited and coached this team into a spoiler and major contender this season. The defense of this team overall is close to being the best around and ranked 14^th nationally last season and were number one in the conference at stopping the run, and with 9 starters back, look out! They also have a balanced attack with all world QB Ryan Tannehill and a solid running game that is 3 deep along with WR Fuller back as well. Texas AM CAN win this confernce, have no doubts.

Returners: 9 on Offense, and 9 on defenseStrength: Expereince, QB, overall Defense, DBs, RB

Weakness: Linebacker

I am hard pressed not to take Texas A&M as my pick to win it all, with a 1-2 punch at RB, a great QB in Tannehill, a solid 1-2 at WR and a great defensive unit with the best DBs in the Big 12 conference, and they have depth at skill positions. The only reason I am not taking them to win it is they have to play Oklahoma in Norman in early November I just do not think they can beat OU at home.

The have a balanced attack, are well coached, they are perhaps the most physical team in the Big 12,and they have a great home field advatage in big games as well, just ask Nebraska from last year.

It will be the team who stops the other team with Defense that wins the Big 12, with all the talk of high powered offenses, and Texas A&M is the team who has the best overall unit. Does defense really wins championships? If so, then Aggie fans have no excuses and if they beat OU in Norman and they get Okie State, Texas, Mizzou and Baylor at home, then the 12^th man may in fact help them to a championship, do not be surprised folks!

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 3

Mike Gundy has a team folks, have no illusions. Brandon Weeden at QB is a massive stud who led the Big 12 in pass efficiency last season with 34 TD passes and almost 5000 yards through the air, and his stud WR Justin Blackmon is also back. His team also has the best OL in the Big 12. Winning the big game has always been Head Coach Mike Gundys downfall and he has a monster game against hated OU to end the season in December in Stillwater, which may in fact decide the Big 12 and the national landsscape for the championship bowl game as well.

Returners: 7 on Offense, and 6 on DefenseStrength: Offense, QB, WR and defensive backsWeakness: Linebacker unit, DL, Road game schedule

If Okie State can win on the road, they can win the Big 12 conference, which is the bottom line. Games at Missouri, Texas A&M and Texas are brutal. The Longhorns are down this year and beatable, so if they can go 1-1 against A&M and Mizzou on the road and not slip up along the way, they could potentially get OU for all the marbles at home for the season finale.

One point of concern is the fact this offense lost All Amercian Kendall Hunter at RB, and they lost their OC to West Virginia. Those are two question marks that have to be addressed to keep OSU on the path of winning.

The defensive line is a concern especially rushing the passer which is going to be key in this conference. They also have 2 linebacker spots up for grabs in fall practice and inexperience at defensive tackle. When you return an offense almost in tact that managed 570 yards and 44 ppg in 2010, you can overcome some defensive issues. They ranked 11^th in the Big 12 last year in pass defense, that MUST improve.

Overall I like OSU and their offense to out score opponents, and any Cowboy backer must be hopeful that punter Quinn Sharp can replace stud kicker Dan Bailey pulling double duty this season.

At days end QB Weeden and WR Blackmon are threat that all defenses must prepare for and they are going to win on field battles more than they are going to lose. Expect that 44 ppg on offense to remain the same this season and look for Okie State to be in thick of it and a possible Spoiler for Oklahoma in the final game of the season.

Missouri Tigers – 4

One thing is missing at Missouri this year, a returning stud quarterback. Gone are the days of having the luxury of Brad Smith and Chase Daniels returning and Gabbert is gone to the NFL and his heralded brother left the team in spring camp. Gary Pinkel has a way of getting and coaching up awesome QBs, so Jeff Franklin has to have a HUGE year in order for Mizzou to win big games. One thing Mizzou does have this year, unlike years past is a rock solid defense.

Returners: 9 on offense, and 7 on defenseStrengths: WR and defensive end, DL, RB depth

Weakness: Inexperience at QB, DBs, road schedule

Hard to imagine that with 9 starters back on a solid offense from last year there is concern, but there is MAJOR concern at QB, which is new to Tiger nation. TJ Moe is a stud at WR and Egnew is an All American canidate at tight end. The OL is in tact, all the pieces are there is James Franklin can administer a revised spread attack with all 3 yard gaining rushers from last year in tact as well.

If Mizzou can rush the ball better and set up their offense not to rely on a QB making plays 80% of the time as in years past, they can nuture Franklin and balance an attack that has talent and great guys up front with experience. The offense and Mizzou goes as far as Franklin and quite frankly the play calling. They do have the best kicker in the nation in Grant Ressel which will help in close games without a doubt.

The defense is KEY for Mizzou this year to stay in games, and they have the 3^rd best in the Big 12 in my opnion. It has been their downfall over the years, score plenty of points but cannot stop anyone, especially good running teams. No one will run the ball well against Mizzou, they are stacked up on the DL, but the secondary is weak. Hopefully this talented front line can rush the passer and get some heat on opposing QBs as so the defensive backs can cover in zone more often. With all the great passers in the Big 12, I just see Mizzou giving up too many big plays to contend in big games against the likes of Jones, Tannehill and Weeden at QB. Games at Texas AM and Oklahoma loom very large as well as a national TV game against Arizona State in the second week of the season on the road. Mizzou will contend in every game they play.

Texas Longhorns – 5

Not gonna be a Texas Longhorn dominant year for once in the Big 12. With all their dominance in this conference, money and power, and now their own TV Network with no shared revenue, this is one of the reasons Nebraska bolted and rival Texas AM wants out of the Big 12 and Texas has a bullseye on them. A tough year last year and another this year is a real possibility. The Longhorn faithful may again call for Mack Browns job, which is insane to be honest. Only 4 returners on offense is a huge problem, and a tough schedule that for once many teams in front of them are just better this season.

Returners: 4 on offense and 6 on defenseStrengths: QB experience, defensive line, special teams

Weakness: New offensive scheme, pass defense, scoring offense

Texas has a new guru on offense as coodinator in Breyan Harsin outr of Boise State. Lots of shifts and motion may in fact confuse opposing defenses, but I doubt the execution will be stellar out of the gate. With only 4 returning starters, QB Garret Gilberts will have a load on his shoulders to put points on the board. The Longhorns averaged only 23 ppg last year which ranked 88^th nationally, that has to change in order to keep pace with the Big 12 elite, I just do not see it happening with a young team and a weak OL.

Defense will have to carry Texas in many regards, and again with many 3 and outs on offense, I just do not see this defense with 6 returners being able to do it against good teams. Long time DC Will Muschamp is now Florida’s head coach, so there is a new DC in town here as well. That is a HUGE hit for the defense at Texas.

All in all, there is a ton of new schemes on both sides of the ball with new coaching, and while there is young talent here, it is inexpererinced and in a scenario of learning all new schemes in a year where the Big 12 elite is top notch, Texas is looking at 4 to 5 losses this season.

Baylor Bears – 6

Art Briles got Baylor to a Bowl Game last year. That is a huge step for this downtrodden program, and the Bears have the best dual threat weapon in the country at QB, in Robert Griffen. A true Heisman trophy canidate, he can litterally turn a game around with 1 play. He gets 8 players back on offense. That is HUGE for the Bears. Baylor has a tough schedule opening up against TCU and should get through their first 5 games at 4-1. Returners: 8 on offense and 5 on defenseStrengths: All world QB, depth on offense, confidence

Weakness: LB and secondary, new DC

I honestly feel with an offense that put up 31 ppg last year and with 8 returners and Griffen being healhty, Baylor will win some games they are not suppose to somewhere along the line, and surely cover bigger spread numbers when a dog, Griffen is that good and a huge playmaker. Covering spreads does not get you to 7 or 8 wins and a bowl game however.

Defense is an issue again, and with a new DC in town, and many switches in positions in spring camp for numerous players, it is a work in progress here. While I think Baylor can get a big win against a good opponent like Texas on the road, it is apparent that another 5 or 6 loss season is upon them, but they will compete, are well coached and have the most dangerous player in the nation at QB. They will cover some spreads and make some noise this season, and a bowl game is very possible. If you overlook this team, you will get stung.

Texas Tech – 7

Well it did not take long for Tommy Tubberville to learn about the Big 12. It is every bit as tough as the SEC. He had 2 veteran QBs last year and now both of them are gone and he faces an uphill climb with a tough schedule in 2011. The won 4 out of their last 5 games last year, one of them against a good Mizzou team, and won a bowl game. I do not think that happens this season. I do not see them as a contender this year, just too many holes at skill poistions to overcome.

Returners: 6 on offense and 5 on defenseStrength: OL is veteran, secondary

Weakness: new QB, DL, new DC and scheme

The bottom line is that the Mike Leach leftovers are still in house in some respects and those players do not fit the offense they like to run. Seth Dodge has little experience at QB and was highly recruited out of high school, but he is in a dog fight with 3 other players for the starting QB positrion. That is not something in the high octane Big 12 that you want to have. If that is not enough, the top 2 leading WRs from last year are gone and the RB postion is iffy at best.

While I feel the offense will be able to get some points up, the Red Raiders success hinges on the defense which now goes to a 4-2-5 scheme and is brand new under new DC Chad Glascow out of TCU. That is the third DC in as many years for Tech. Enough said, 6 losses and a 4 straight losses at the end of the season is very possible and a tough year in Lubbock.

Kansas State – 8

Bill Snyder returns for another year, and he has his hands full. KSU lost a thriller of a bowl game last year and finished better than I expected. They are physical and well coached, but bottom line is they lack talent and depth to compete this season to the level of the 7-6 record they has last year. They only won 3 Big 12 games last year, and while nemisis Nebraska is gone, it is no easy road to 6 wins this year for K State.

Returners: 5 on offense and 7 on defenseStrength: WR, Secondary

Weakness: Depth, RB, DL

While QB Collin Klein returns at QB, the job is up for grabs. KSU also has to replace NFL RB Daniel Thomas who was a massive stud and had over 50% of the entire offense last year and they also have to replace key players on the OL. The good news is Chris Harper is back at WR and Brodrick Smith is back and healhty at WR as well. K State can stretch the field vertically. Balancing an attack might be a problem, but Klein at QB will run it and spread the field with his legs if need be. At days end I think he wins the starting job.

Defense is nother issue with experience but while K State cannot stop anyone running it, they can stop the pass with an experienced and big hitting secondary. Improvement at LB is needed and some young players look promising. The first road game for this young team is against Miami and they have to play Kansas in Lawerence this year. Just too many question marks and youth, but if anyone can coach them up and get 5 or 6 wins, it would be Bill Snyder.

Iowa State – 9

The Cyclones underperformed last year and now have to replace the entire offense from a skill position standpoint, and that is a huge task considering the talent level in house at tthe moment. A QB shuffle is in place in fall camp and it looks to be a junior in Jerome Tiller but Steele Jantz is sharing equal snaps. The entire season hinges upon the offense clicking and they never completed a pass over 39 yards last year. This is a work in progress on offense and in the Big 12 you have to score 28 ppg to compete, I just do not se it fro ISU this year. Returners: 5 on offense and 7 on defense Strength: OL and LB

Weakness: QB, RB, lack of depth at skill poistions on offense

The Cyclones go as far as the offense will take them. A 2 man race for QB still ongoing, issues with RB and uncertian talent at WR is a huge problem. ISU will play good defense, they like to blitz and have some good players at LB in and the secondary, but with no offense to sustain drives against good teams, the defense cannot carry them. I see 4 wins for ISU this year and a brutal schedule with Iowa and U Conn before the Big 12 schedule even hits. Another long year in Ames with this team who will struggle big time on offense.

Kansas – 10

Hate to say this about my friend Turner Gill, but keep your head down or the fans may chop it off this year. Kansas was litterally a train wreck last season as they lost all skill players the year before and ex Nebraska superstar and coach Turner Gill was handed a losing hand on the deal and it showed. More of the same with some improvements this year, but with the entire athletic program a wreck and in scandal at KU, it simply does not look good for Kansas this year in football.

Returners: 6 on offense and 7 on defenseStrength: Coaching, RB

Weakness: everything else including QB

With 13 rerturners you might think the Jayhawks could play some spoiler role, but a true freshman is beating out last years starer Jordan Webb at QB. High hopes for incoming frosh Brock Burgland at QB, a Colorado commit that came to KU after the dust settled, but I do not feel a true frosh at QB in the Big 12 will prosper. James Sims is back at RB and 2 new frosh with 4.3 speed back him up so they can muster up a running game somewhat. Look for Gill to make some changes, try some trick plays and expose his speed on offense. KU was ranked 111^th in scoring nationally last year, so anything is an improvement.

The defense was a mess, and while they have 7 players back, they will be a mess again this year. Giving up 34 ppg and not being able to stop anyone running the ball needs to improve. The days of Mark Magino are gone and Carl Torbush at DC has a work in progress on defense. Kansas has huge special team’s issues and talent and depth issues on defense. KU will be the whipping boy again in 2012. At least there is always basketball at KU.

FUTURES: Okie State and Texas AM OVER 8.5 wins Each

Laundry Jones to win Heisman 15 to 1

Armageddon for Online Books and Poker is here

2011-05-24T16:47:00Z

By Tony George This is my opinion, not representation of the site it appears on.

If the recent seizure of 3 of the biggest online poker sites was not enough to set you back in your seat and take notice, the US Feds have seized more domain names in the online poker and sportsbook world this week, and I see no end in sight. Gambling online, as you know it, is now a thing of the past in its present form. Like booze prohibition back in the day, it will come back in a very regulated form at some point, but the days of betting $50 on the Jets on Monday Night football online are over.

The following domains were seized this week by the Federal Government:

Bookmaker.com

2Betsdi.com

Funtimebingo.com

Goldenarchcasino.com

Truepoker.com

Betmaker.com

Betgrandesports.com

Doylesroom.com

Betehorse.com

Beted.com.

Other Big named Books like BetUS for example, are no longer taking US clients, and getting your account cleared out at many of these is now virtually impossible. If you somehow get a western union or wire, claim it on your income taxes as gaming winnings this year. That’s right even if you had $3000 in losses and get a wire for $2500 from an offshore processor because that is what you had left in your account, you better claim it to be safe. All banks in the US are on notice, trust me on that one. Uncle Sam is not screwing around any longer ladies and gents, they are shutting it all down officially. Even though these books are operating to the letter of the law and following regulations in these third world countries they are located in, that bears NO meaning to the Feds. Federal laundering charges, felony wire and mail fraud and racketeering charges are going to be leveled against anyone inside of the US that is processing payments. That is the way I read it.

Of course many of these books are getting new domains and are suppose to be right back in action. My answer is tread lightly my friends. You are playing Russian Roulette with any funds you send them or are suppose to get from them. Last time I checked the Feds are not stupid and they mean business here. They have not wasted millions of tax payer dollars or thousands of man hours going after these guys, just to let them establish a new domain path and be right back in business the next day.

Are you Mad yet?

Your right to do what you want in the privacy of your own home in terms of online gaming or on a mobile device, is now 100 percent under siege. As I have stated in many blogs and articles for gaming sites over the past 2 years, if Uncle Sam cannot tax it, regulate and control it, and derive money from it, it is going to be illegal. That is how a democracy works.

The other way a democracy works is pressure from registered voters to elected officials to get something done about this and turn it around, and work out a solution that makes sense to Uncle Sam, which in essence is making sure the Feds get paid with taxes. You have no one to blame but yourself if you do not contact your elected officials in Washington and gripe. Barney Frank has introduced legislation more than once for online poker, but cannot gain steam or gets votes and support. Look it up and get active.

Height of Hypocrisy

The Feds back and regulate the state lotteries such as scratch tickets and Powerball. The biggest sucker bet on the planet. It is worth hundreds of millions in tax revenues yearly to state and federal coffers. They love the lottery system where the average Joe has NO chance of winning. The only person that wins in the end is the Feds and state government, and some guy with an old washing machine on his front porch in the backwoods of South Carolina who bought a ticket at the Quick Shop purely on accident. Reminds me of the Casinos in Las Vegas, the house always wins.

The Feds backed the biggest gamble in US History and then paid for the losses with Bear Sterns, AIG and others. The Feds then funded a $700 billion dollar bailout of investment and commercial banks and gave them TARP money whether they wanted it or not, a carte blanch deal, with YOUR tax dollars. These investment banks underwrote bad subprime mortgages knowing that mortgage backed securities were not being regulated and they were no good, so all these Wall Street types, and banks could get their fees. This GAMBLE almost destroyed the entire economical system of the US, and not one person was charged with a felony.

Game Over – Accept it

The Feds do not back online gaming. Why is that you may wonder? They do not get paid and cannot regulate it. Kind of sad actually because gaming online regulates losses for the end consumer first and foremost. If you are out of money, you cannot bet anymore. That is better than the local bookie who will take your bet anytime, anywhere and when you come up short on Tuesday, breaks your kneecaps if you do not pay. Now the Feds are going to spend more millions going after these bookies instead of taking that money and fixing infrastructure issues within our borders, or funding healthcare. When you are a responsible and informed gambler on sports or poker online you are giving yourself a better than average chance to win. Yet the Feds are not allowing you to do that in its current form.

Whether you like it or not, unless you as an individual take action, nothing will change. If it does change it will be at a snail’s pace. Las Vegas Casinos have legislation in place to start up online poker rooms within the US borders and the windfall from them being the only game in town, totally US bank backed, is attractive to law makers who love the money potential of that scenario. I see that happening within 2 years or less. Sportsbooks are a long way from where Poker is, and there is no grass roots organization at all, and everyone with all the money is offshore and directing their efforts to foreign markets now. Right now it is a big crap sandwich, time to take a bite because within the next 3 months you will have nowhere to wager a sporting event online without serious risks.

HOW SWEET IT IS - THE FINAL 16

2011-03-22T18:57:00Z

By Tony George

Here we go gents. After all the heart attacks, cussing in public bars, and violent tossing of remote controls, and throwing up of excess beer and chicken wings after Thursday through Sunday games in March Madness, it boils down to the Sweet 16. Yes, many improbable results and teams like VCU, Marquette, Richmond and Arizona take their place alongside the most storied basketball programs in sports like North Carolina, Kansas, Duke, and U Conn which these unlikeliest aforementioned teams killed many a bankroll from a sports gaming perspective along the way. Morehead State killed more brackets than Attila the Hun did people!

I would count Butler in there as a “out of nowhere team”, but remember, they are the NCAA runner up champions and not to my surprise, are still hanging around like a bad head cold. Many of you cannot see the forest because of all the trees in the first 2 rounds, but the picture, while much clearer, it still slightly cloudy with a chance of rain.

I will break down a few games and throw in some stats and takes here that might open your eyes. Teams that lay 6 points or more in the Sweet 16 are an amazing 31-2 Straight up in wins and covered the spread 21 times out of those 33 games. What does this mean? That means that Cinderella’s sometimes face reality. But then again it is all about matchups, and while power teams like Duke, NC, Kansas and U Conn prevail more times than not, there are teams like VCU and Butler that are like a cold sore, they appear at the worst time and are hard to get rid of.

At day’s end in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, the matchups are much easier for a pro handicapper like myself to handicap. You do not have a 2 day turn around to either play the game or handicap. You time to breakdown teams with stats and film, just like coaches and the results many times are more predictable. Better teams win more times than not. Do not count out Mr. Fisher and the Aztecs, however the noose is tight now and we are not playing Mountain West teams anymore. So many scenarios to consider and so little time.

One other factor to consider. Look at the list of experienced coaches who have huge success in the post season. Who can coach and win big games, you need to seriously consider this when looking and handicapping the remaining games. There are some newbie’s in the pool and some veteran studs in the mix as well. The one wildcard is Marquette who is hot at the right time, but loaded with JUCO players, and against the nation’s elite now, you may see some separation. VCU simply does not know any better are kicking peoples butt with sheer hustle and no fear, and Butler thinks they are suppose to be here, again! Jimmer Ferdette simply thinks he can shoot three’s from any point across the half court line, and he does and makes them. Oh how sweet it is!

A Few Takes on upcoming Sweet 16 games

Duke -8.5 vs. Arizona – So going with the fact that Duke struggled to beat an average Michigan team where they let them hang around, that could be the game they talk about after potential national title win as the one that woke them up. One thing about Arizona, they are deep and rotate, not sure that matters against Duke who’s second string 5 players on the bench could start for Arizona with the exception of Williams. Better team here is Duke by far, and unlike Texas who is very poorly coached, Duke has the best big game coach in history. Duke may win by 15 or more.

Ask yourself this question? Does one player carry a team this late in the season on the biggest stage in sports or does a complete team win Sweet 16 games? Enter BYU and Butler into this equation and you may in fact have a fat wallet. North Carolina will garner a lot of public attention and money, but they are young and at day’s end cannot beat either Kentucky or Ohio State. Duke showed everyone who is any good at coaching how to dismantle them in the ACC Championship. Did I mention Wisconsin yet? Well I won’t for long because there is a serious question about their offense now that they are this deep, but Butler provides one of the most interesting matchup’s of all, a real coin toss.

Kansas looked as good as anyone in the second round outside of VCU who has dominated every single opponent they have played, even USC in the play in game. VCU a 4 point puppy against Florida State in a mismatch of styles, and defense more times than not wins in a game like this, just an FYI. Then again how do you really stop VCU and their style of play?

Kansas is a potential blowout in the making against a Richmond team that does rely heavy on sharpshooters from the outside, and KU will defend that well. I am leaving Kentucky out of the mix here, they are too young and have just skimmed by the entire way, that does not hold water now. Ohio State gets over on Kentucky, but one big man in the paint cannot win from this point forward.

Final Four Projections – Un-Point Spread Related

Kansas, Florida, Ohio State and Duke. That’s right, three #1 seeds and a # 2 seed, rare but not impossible this year! You cannot discount U Conn and their huge run the Big East Tourney and having the best player in College Basketball is a huge plus. Kansas is in for sure here, Florida should end Butlers run and U Conn and SDSU should be epic if they meet in the South Region, but I lean to Duke to beat U Conn with an easier path.

All Good teams and it is anyone’s game in the Final Four as all teams who make it here are massive studs and well coached. Since I had Pitt winning it all and they took a pee down their leg, I will stick to my first love, the Big 12 and a Kansas national title, the Morris twins are a handful! You ask for a wild card shocker to end up here as a long shot, I would lean to VCU over Butler and Marquette, they are impressive to this point.

Big 12 Power Ratings February 22

2011-02-22T16:38:00Z

By Tony George

Kansas and Texas both lost week but remain at the top, and Texas AM and Nebraska are very dangerous right now, especially at home. Texas and KU BOTH looking to get back on track this week.

Kansas on Big Monday on ESPN just destroyed Okie State, who as stated in the past is not the same team away from Stillwater, and Texas looks to dismantle Iowa State who is very short handed on Tuesday.

The Key game this week is Kansas State at Nebraska on Wednesday Night the 23rd. HUGE game for both teams. NU is 16-1 at home and avenging a blowout loss at K State last month and as mentioned off a signature win against #3 Texas on Saturday, Doc Sadlers biggest win at Nebraska.

Mizzou finally picked up a road win, albeit at Iowa State but Missouri is gaining some steam headed into March Madness. The Big 12 Tourney is around the corner and will be a good one.

THIS WEEKS RATINGS

Texas 93

Kansas 91

Texas AM 88 - tie

Missouri 88 - tie

Nebraska 86

Kansas State 84

Baylor 82

Oklahoma State 80 (tie)

Colorado 80 - tie

Oklahoma 78

Texas Tech 76

Iowa State 75

Allow 2 points for homecourt in all cases but the following:

Texas and Kansas 4 points at home, Nebraska 3.5 points, Missouri, Texas AM and Okie State 3 points

Big 12 Hoops Power Ratings for Feb.14th

2011-02-14T17:50:00Z

Back in the saddle again after a 5 day break from all capping, BUT plenty of time to catch all Big 12 games of interest and make some small adjustments to my ratings of 2 weeks ago.

Texas and Kansas continue to seperate themselves from the rest of the pack and Texas simply put is on a roll, and the best ATS cover team in the Conference at 15-5 ATS overall, and they are 10-0 SU in conference action. While the Longhorns struggled with Baylor on Saturday they managed a win and a rare cover miss, while Kansas was pounding Iowa State at Phog Allen to move to 9-1 in Big 12 play.

Also rans are Texas AM out of a slump and they are 6-4 in conference action. Besides Texas and Kansas, Texas AM is the third best road team in the conference at 4-2 SU. Baylor is at 6-5 in conference action and their guards are starting to step up, and Mizzou continues to pound people at home, and act tlike they have never played before on the road, the Tigers are deplorable on the road. Nebraska's defense continues to impress and keep them in games and they just beat Okie State in Lincoln this weekend. NU is very tough at homne and have just 1 loss there all year and that was to Kansas. Colorado is falling fast losing 6 out of 10 and they have Kansas on deck, but managed a win over Kansas State in Boulder this weekend.

Kansas Satte is an enigma wrapped in a riddle this season, but it is apparent that all the defections from players, 10 transfers in 3 years, is taking its toll, and they are on the cusp of losing a bid to the NCAA tourney, especially with an early exit in the Big 12 Tourney if it happens. I think Frank Martins act is wearing thin, and remember this was a top rated team last year that went deep into the Big Dance.

At days end, with the way things are looking, KU and Texas will be in seperate brackets in the tourney, and if they can manage to avoid some upsets in Kansas City in that tourney, will meet and decide not only the conference championship, but no doubt a number one seed in the big dance in March Madness. Here are my powoer ratings for this week.

Feb 14 rankings

Texas 94

Kansas 92

Texas AM 90

Missouri 89

Baylor 88

Nebraska 86

Colorado 85

Kansas State 84

Oklahoma State 84 (tie)

Oklahoma 82

Texas Tech 81

Iowa State 79

Allow 2 points for homecourt in all cases but the following:

Texas and Kansas 3.5 points at home, Nebraska, Missouri and Okie State 3 points.

Legalize Gambling - Help Save America

2011-02-08T22:29:00Z

By Tony George Every year after the Super Bowl I get angry. I am not referring to the fact that football is over, but that does not help my demeanor either. The opening first two months of the first quarter of the new year always brings bad news from the economic front in politics. Watch the news every night if you need to be reminded of this fact. I am going to make some assumptions in this blog about tax revenues. I also am going to quote some public opinion out of an article in 2009 in the state of New Jersey, one of the hardest hit states in the Union outside of Illinois in terms of being not solvent as a government entity.

While I am a moderate to liberal republican as an individual, bordering on libertarian, and never thought I would agree with anything that Barney Frank had to say, legalizing gambling, and online gambling may not save the beast that is the Federal Government, but it surely would do more than provide a band aid. I fully back Mr. Franks quest to ease restrictions on online gaming. As we all know in gaming circles, in 2006 the Feds decided to outlaw Internet gambling, including Poker Rooms, and many of my friends we all of a sudden called criminals in the US. Just an insane situation, but sadly a fact. My personal marketplace declined close to 80% alone in revenues, and I am a small fish in a big ocean when it comes to online sports handicapping and online sports gaming.

I guess the biggest sucker and square bet in the history of man, state lotteries and Powerball lotteries are OK with the Feds however, where you have a 1 in 20,000,000 chance of winning, but give yourself better than 50% odds to win a sports bet, or a Poker hand, and you need to go to jail. The Feds LOVE the monies they receive from the biggest scam in American gambling, but this proves my point. The Feds can track it and regulate it and profit from it, so it is legal. Online gambling and dealing with foreign companies and international gaming regulations with no way to get in it and control it, and get no money from it, they make it illegal. Not to mention just stepping all over out civil liberties and violating our privacy in the process. One thing consistent about Washington DC is that it has the basic 2 human emotions, Greed and More Greed. I guess I can say the same thing about Wall Street while I am at it.

The Super Bowl handle in the state of Nevada for the Super Bowl alone was 87 million dollars this year. Recently New Jersey toyed with the idea of legalizing sports gambling in their racetracks and casinos. State officials and others estimated a $100 million dollar take in tax revenues if implemented by 2011based on an 8% tax rate for gambling. While I assume those numbers were inflated to sell the deal, as is the case with most politicians and their subordinates, the amount of dollars generated by legalized sports gambling in the US would be in the billions in terms of tax revenues. There is 2.6 billion dollars wagered in Nevada per year on sports, and remember that the 87 million on the Super Bowl is estimated to be only 1% of all wagers worldwide on the Super Bowl. Gambling is bigger than Microsoft folks!

Roads need to be fixed, social programs need funding, teachers all need raises, and astronomical debt needs to be repaid. Now so many conservatives think it will decay the moral fabric of our country and most people are not behind it. I beg to differ and post the following quote from an article referring to the question of legalized sports betting at the end of this blog post. The moral fabric of this country decayed beyond the point of no return when New Jersey Shore was renewed on VH1 this year.

Uncle Sam and offshore companies need to form a committee and look at how they can communicate and build a business model that the Feds are OK with in order to open up online betting. Nice thing about online gaming is no one shows up at your door Tuesday morning to bust your kneecaps when it is time to pay up, you can only wager what is in your account, not bet over your head, if anything it is a form of self reregulation upon people who may in fact want to gamble past their means. THEY ARE DOING IT NOW WITH Illegal bookies all over the country and Uncle Sam is missing the tax gravy train. Same goes with poker and online casinos.

The Feds also spend tens of millions of dollars a year and wasted time chasing organized crime when it comes to gambling or illegal bookmaking operations and or chasing down guys at offshore sports books running a legitimate business in the country of origin, so add that to the savings and tax coffers. A violation of civil liberties can be stomped out in the process of legalization, we are all adults and what we choose to do online in the comfort of our home on a few calculated risks is our business. Actually when it comes to sports betting for the vast majority of people who have half a brain, it is a better risk that the stock market.

Legalize it, tax it, reduce restriction and government control of private lives, let the debate cease and create a revenue stream and more jobs for private enterprise and local, state and federal government. While all Pro leagues shy away and moan about gambling, it drives all their sports as well as the NCAA. Who cares about UAB playing Memphis on Thursday night when the spread is 18 points and ESPN is pulling a 7 share on cable in the ratings? Las Vegas Sportsbook owners are like the 3000 pound elephant invited to the annual NFL Christmas party every year, always on the guest list but nobody buys him a drink. Gamblers drive TV revenues through the roof because 80% of the male population are action junkies. The only red blooded American males who did not have some sort of action at all on Super Bowl Sunday were in the cemetery.

Think I am wrong or the public is not on board with me, see below. Time for action folks, get behind the cause, it is working in Egypt right now with a grass roots movement, let’s make it happen!

There's no question that the public loves the idea. The latest Farleigh Dickinson University Public Mind poll shows overwhelming support back in New Jersey in 2009. Those asked about allowing sports betting at Atlantic City's casinos loved the notion – 63 to 32 percent. In every subgroup - men, women, liberals and conservatives – opinion was the same.

The Big 12 Hoops Report - Power Ratings

2011-01-24T17:32:00Z

By Tony George

I am off the races again in Big 12 Hoops action, and also the Mo Valley as my two specialty conferences, but I am finding huge success cherry picking the Books in the Big 12. Some teams are overrated and some teams underrated and we are getting close to mid season conference scenario.

I am finding great value with oddsmakers lines right now, and it should be noted that road games in the Big 12, like any other conference are very tough to get wins at, but conversley, many road dogs are covering some numbers, so I thought I might give you some pointers and some takes on Big 12 Hoops action.

This weekend I unloaded on Texas who was a 7 point pup and they beat Kansas SU by 11. KU is overrated on the national scale in my opinion and hvae had issues putting good teams away, as well as covering big numbers at home against conference foes. Last week they barely escaped a scrappy Nebraska team as a 16 point favorite winning by 3 points in a last minute thriller. They have had srtruggles on the road with close ones against Iowa State and also an OT thriller at Ann Arbor against an average Michigan team. This is NOT the Kansas team of old, and their frontcourt is not as strong as past years editions. Any team who defends the perimeter well and has a decent frontcourt is going to give Kansas problems. I can name 10 teams who can beat them on a nuetral floor, a number 2 ranking nationally is too high for KU.

Kansas State continues to be an enigma wrapped in a riddle, but the bottom line is that ANY team who can play a good defense, will beat K State. Thery are overrated and have no legit frontcourt and while their backcourt is better than average, too much emphasis on Pullen to score the majority of their points is killing the Wildcats, not to mention a 58% free throw percentage, that kills you in big games. They are 4-10 ATS on the year to date.

Texas has flexed their prowess the past week or so pounding a good Texas AM team by 21 in Austin and then going on the road and destroying Kansas. The Longhorns are a COVER MACHINE going 11-3 ATS in 14 lined games, and they are winning by double digit margins all over the place in conference action. I see no end in sight for them. They are a play on team.

Mizzou is also playing great basketball and they are starting to play some defense, and are maybe one of the better coached team in conference play alongside Texas AM. They have the ability to explode on offense as well and they are extremely strong at home. Vegas seems to like Mizzou and they have managed just 8 covers in 15 lined games, but are a dangerous team, but just 1-3 SU on t he road.

BEST AND WORST

Texas Tech is on the only losing team in the conference
Nebraska ranks 2nd nationally on defense at under 57 ppg allowed
Texas is the best cover team in the Big 12 at 11-3 ATS, Texas AM is 8-3 ATS
Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska are winless on the road this season to date
Texas Tech is 3-12 ATS, Kansas State 4-10 ATS, and Baylor 4-7 ATS in lined games
There are 5 undefeated teams on their home floor to date
The only team with more than 2 losses at home is Texas Tech with 4 losses

Your Go With Teams ATS right now who are playing great basketball are Texas and Texas AM. Your against team on the road is Nebraska and Texas Tech and Kansas State. I would continue to go against K State with a line at home over 6 points with the exception of playing Texas Tech. My sleeper teams are Baylor and Colorado, and Colorado is dangerous at home against anyone.

My Power rankings to date are:

Texas 88

Kansas 87

Texas AM 85

Missouri 83

Baylor 82

Colorado 81

Oklahoma State 80

Nebraska 78

Iowa State 78 (tie)

Kansas State 76

Oklahoma 74

Texas Tech 72

Allow 3 points at home for Texas, Kansas, Colorado and Okie State. The rest of the teams I allow a 2 point overlay against the spread for homecourt.

I will update these ratings in the near future and offer up another Big 12 report in 2 weeks.

IS KANSAS CITY FOR REAL? ANSWER ME!

2011-01-03T22:02:00Z

Is Kansas City for Real? By Tony George As a hometown boy, I have followed the Chiefs all year both as a fan and a professional handicapper. After last year’s assistant coach acquisitions, I thought they could break the 6 win barrier based on schedule alone, but a 10-6 record and a division title shocked me, although the Chargers at season’s end destroyed Kansas City, without their starting QB. Then the final debacle was a home loss by 21 to the Raiders who swept them this season in conference play and were the only team in the division who were undefeated in division play. So you ask yourself, was Kansas City even the best team in the AFC West? As evidenced by the seeding in the AFC and the fact KC is a home underdog in the playoffs to the Ravens, it looks like Vegas oddsmakers think they got it done with smoke and mirrors. The FACT of the matter is while Kansas City is a good football, and are good at everything, they are not GREAT at everything as compared to a team like New England for instance. Looking at the combined reord of the 13 teams that Kansas City Plays scares KC Backers, because the combined record of those teams were 85-123. Add in the fact the only playoff team Kansas City beat was Seattle on the road, but Seattle is also the only playoff with a paltry 7-9 record to get to the playoffs. Too bad Seattle is an NFC team and not an AFC team in Kansas City’s defense. SO THIS IS MY BLOG – Do you think Kansas City is for real or not?? Answers in the reply section will be the basis of my reply.

Do you buy Hype or Winners?

2010-11-19T19:54:00Z

By Tony George

Recently I read some forums posts around the internet that had me doing some self examination. I have thought about it more than once over a 19 year span of being a Professional Capper, or a full time sports handicapper, term it as you must. Do I sell hype, or do I sell sports picks? I am confident that I sell the latter of the two. I though I would share some thoughts.

Now no one is ever going to say something nice about a guy who sells sports picks for a living, that just comes with the territory. But time and time again I entcounter such negative references to people that are handicappers, some who I know to be scamsters in this arena, that had it coming to them, and then there are those whom I know and respect and pro cappers who really did not deserve being called the lowest common element of human flith for touting a game of the year that lost by 7 points on the other side away from the spread. Get it over...S*it happens.

If it is hyped up as the super lock of the century with a team laying laying 8 that gets beat by 21 straight up, thats your fault for buying into it. If a guy like Marco DeAngelo (a true pro and a friend) says he has his one and only game of the year, I am ALL OVER IT. Because I know the guy, he is a handicapper and a sports bettor and he does not screw around or take that designation lightly or use it as a sales tool. He texted me his GOY this season, I dropped a dime on it and won without breaking a sweat. True Story.

I include myself in that statement. My Game of the Year this season was a 2 Unit Play with Miami of Ohio over Buffalo laying 3.5 points and they won by 9. I doubled my wager and won. It did not sell much because it was not hype to hell, but I made a dime on it so I was happy, and at days end, that is what matter most, winning games, especially what I consider a big game, double your wager.

HOW DID I GET HERE? What I am doing?

When I entered this business in 1992, basically on a goof, I never knew it would turn out the way it did, that I would end up a brand name to a certain degree and a national radio personality in the sports gaming arena and also legitimate circles in the radio biz as well. There was no Internet, Jeff Allen was at the height of his career before landing in prison for fraud, and boiler room operations were the main cog in the wheel in the business. Is Stu Feiner still around? You know the guys I speak of. I had balls big enough to say I will be the "Ethical Alternative" in sports handicapping.

I did not realize the size of the hole at the time that was in front of me with that statement.

I had no resources and no brand name, I was just a fly in the ointment that KNEW he could do better than most without the scams and high pressure, bait and switch scams, callbacks, hassles with western union, $500 a weekend charge for the super lock of the decade that the owner of this so called sports service has $100,000 personally on this particular game that some silver tounged devil is selling over the phone...balh blah blah. THEY WERE WINNING THE BATTLE for clients BECAUSE PEOPLE BOUGHT HYPE AND FANTASY, NOT SPORTS CAPPING.

A reasonsable price for a weekend worth of plays, some substance to them in terms of explaing why I like the play, and telling it like it is, win lose or draw.. I thought this angle could be the revolution in the marketplace in the 90's. That was the plan anyway.

You see, I try to not hype up a huge weekend too much, because I know this craft of betting sports, you can go 5-0 one week, handicap the same way and use the power ratings the next week, and go 1-4. Driving down the strip in Las Vegas makes you realize that the town was not built on the backs of Winners, but on the backs of guys who thought they had a sure fire system, short term or long term to beat the house.

I never have been a hype artist, never been a guy with 25 or 30 Games of the Year. A Game of the Month is just that. A 2 unit wager (double your normal wager). that maybe comes along once every 30 days or so. I preached flat betting to anyone who would listen. I preached LONG TERM. Well while those of us "in the know" understand this to be the only way to really profit long term, THAT DOES NOT SELL PLAYS!

Everyone with a Go Daddy account and half a brain can build a capping site, post a pay pal link and be called a handicapper. SO, if you want to make some cash in the marketplace, you have two choices. Hype the hell out of plays to attract attention, or join a combination site like Pregame or others that have established brand name guys and take your chances splitting up the pick sales pie with 20 other guys. Again I choose the latter of the two, although I have my own site still just because I have had it forever, I am better served on larger combination sites with fair reporting and some rules on touting the hell outta stuff so the playing field is level.

Bottom line is I sell sports plays against the Las Vegas line. I also bet those plays, and many in the business whom I have spent time with in Vegas or know me personally can attest that I put my money where my mouth is at. There are times you have to tout it up alittle in order to be seen or stand out in a crowd, but selling hype is for other guys out there in cyberland, not for me. I have decided that general public perception of handicappers is not high, I could care less, I sleep well at night knowing I have done my due dillegence and kept it on the up and up.

I look myself in the mirror daily, know what yesterdays story was, tell it like it is, and try to make a positive beat on the books daily with hard work, I will leave the heavy hype up to others, it aint for me boys!

NFL Power Ratings by Tony George

2010-11-16T22:19:00Z

The season is just past the halfway point and my Power rating systems are honed in, as evidenced by a 4-1 ATS week in the NFL last week. While power ratings are a guide against the Las Vegas line in terms of an overlay against the number, a myriad of other factors also go into the equation. Weekly injuries, divisional trends, weather and set up lines by Las Vegas oddsmakers, that can be identified with experience play a part in my selections. Headed into Week 10 of the season, this is where they stand. Home field is worth 3 to 4 points depending on the matchup. The Patriots when in sync to me, seem the team to beat if they continue to play defense, it is a shame that the Jets are in the same division. The Colts have fallen simply due to injuries and Kansas City off back to back divisional losses have dropped 4 spots, the biggest loser in points. The Giants and Falcons lead the NFC race with Philly making a 4 spot jump after a more than impressive win on Monday and QB Vick is getting better weekly. If they can play defense, again which is key down the stretch, they will be deep in the mix along with division foe NY, whom they face this week at home. Never put stock in just 1 game, you need to average the last 3 or 4 week’s worth of stats in order to maintain objectivity. The team is listed and then the power ranking number. 1. New England Patriots 992. NY Jets 983. NY Giants 974. Pittsburg Steelers 965. Atlanta Falcons 95.56. Baltimore Ravens 957. New Orleans Saints 94.58. Philadelphia Eagles 949. Indianapolis Colts 9310. Green Bay Packers 93 (tie with Indy)11. San Diego Chargers 9112. Chicago Bears 91 (ties with SD)13. Tampa Bay Bucs 90.514. Tennessee Titans 9015. Kansas City Chiefs 89.516. Oakland Raiders 8917. Cleveland Browns 89 (tie with Oakland)18. Jacksonville Jags 8819. Miami Dolphins 87.520. Houston Texans 8721. Seattle Seahawks 86.522. Washington Redskins 8623. Minnesota Vikings 85.524. St. Louis Rams 8525. Dallas Cowboys 85 (tie with St. Louis)26. Denver Broncos 84.527. San Fran 49ers 8428. Arizona Cardinals 84 (tie with San Fran)29. Cincinnati Bengals 8330. Detroit Lions 82.531. Carolina Panthers 8232. Buffalo Bills 81

The Big 12 Report - After the Carnage

2010-11-09T20:27:00Z

Kansas State..REALLY?

By Tony George

What a week in the Big 12 last week as numerous giants fell, and so did my bankroll because of it. College football this year is more of a flip flop from week to week than I have seen in quite some time, not just the Big 12 but in general. Look like a rock star one week, and act like you never picked up a guitar the next week. Vegas books have to be loving NCAA bettors right now. The frontrunner right now in the Big 12 is clearly Nebraska in the North Division after the Mizzou debacle in west Texas last week, and after OU lost last week, Okie State is the front runner in the South with Texas also going down. Remember NU and OSU already played in Stillwater and the Huskers racked up 51 points on them. Interesting stuff down the stretch in the South, the North is all but done unless Nebraska self destructs.

Mizzou went to Lubbock Texas and let the second worst running team in the Big 12 destroy them on the ground, like the previous week in Lincoln Nebraska as the Huskers rammed it down their throat. Oklahoma was held scoreless at Texas AM in the first half who has a weak defense, and lose in a bad way. Texas goes to K State and gets humiliated, and Nebraska goes to Iowa State with payback in mind as a 19 point fav, and wins by 1 in OT on a miracle. Kansas, yes I said Kansas, scores 35 points in the fourth quarter and beats Colorado, and at day’s end will cost Hawkins his job when the season is over. The only team that really in my mind exceeded expectations who was expected to win was Oklahoma State, who pounded Baylor into submission, and Baylor is a good team, not a great team, but a good one.

Let’s take a look at some of this week’s featured action in the Big 12 and some point spread opinions:

Kansas @ Nebraska -35 – Not interested in Nebraska at this price, and Turner Gill returns to his homeland here as an ex player and coach for Nebraska for over 20 years. While Bo Pellini has no mercy for anyone, word coming down from the press box and Dr. Tom Osborne might in fact play into this getting out of hand for Kansas in terms of a blowout. Turner Gill was runner up for Pellini’s job when he got it and Osborne and Gill are very good friends. I am also not sure Nebraska with Martinez which is a game day decision, not all that p[potent on offense and Nebraska has a huge game on deck with Texas AM next Saturday for all the marbles. Lean to the Visitor and the big points.

Kansas State @ Mizzou -13 – Well Missouri has had their usual mid season slump when playing anyone good. Kansas Sate on the other hand pounded Texas at home last week and have all the confidence in the world. K State giving up 6 yards a carry on the ground, doubt Mizzou will expose it. Synder the far better coach in this one and better to make adjustments during the game to beat Mizzou than the other way around. The talent lies with the hometown Tigers and somehow, someway, I think they pull out a win here, but it will not come easy, K State’s Thomas at RB liable to eat up yards against a weak Mizzou run defense. Lean to the Visitor, this is way too many points.

Okie State @ Texas +5 - BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK. Check out my play and win big as I bounce back after last week’s OU disaster

Iowa State @ Colorado +2.5 – EASY MONEY free play here. The Cyclones really gave a good Nebraska team all they wanted and then some, although Nebraska used their 3^rd string QB in that game, I like ISU to get it done here. THIS IS A BOWL QUALIFIYING GAME FOR IOWA STATE for win #6. Colorado just imploded last week at Kansas allowing 35 points in the fourth quarter to a bad Jayhawk team and I say with a lame duck coach, they do not recover. ISU solid on offense, have a good QB and know after beating Texas in Austin a few weeks back, they can beat a wounded Buffalo team here on the road. Colorado done boys, Lay the small number and Iowa State for my Big 12 Free Play this week.

The Big 12 Report - Battle Lines Drawn

2010-11-02T14:52:00Z

By Tony George

The Big 12 now has 5 ranked teams in the Top 25, and the Nebraska Cornhuskers crawled back into the driver’s seat last week with a beat down of the Mizzou Tigers in Lincoln, where Roy Hulu Jr. ran wild and set a single game rushing records for the Huskers, and that is saying something considering the past running backs at Nebraska. As Nebraska punches their exit ticket for the Big 10 next year, they are clearly lining up an old Big 8 battle at season’s end with long time hated rival Oklahoma who clearly is the best team in the South. Both teams have some potential landmines along the way, but it looks to be a December 12th meeting in Dallas for those two unless the wheels come off.

Other contenders still are Mizzou up north and not to mention Iowa State, a real shocker this season with a huge game on deck this week at home with Nebraska. Baylor is getting the best coaching in the Big 12 from Art Bryles and have now knocked off Texas in Austin as Iowa State did the week before and have no doubt, Baylor and QB Griffen are the real deal and ranked and currently leading the South standings! A lot of big games that determine some paths for some teams this weekend, lets break them down and offer some opinions.

Nebraska -19 @ Iowa State – Potential landmine for Huskers, but remember last year Iowa State BEAT Nebraska in Lincoln after the Huskers turned it over 8 times in a single game. That is a good thing considering Nebraska is off a huge national TV game against Missouri and this could be a letdown spot for a game like this, so having some payback should give the Huskers focus. All world QB Taylor Martinez has an ankle sprain and bone bruise in his leg, and is 50/50 for this game, but Zac Lee is a 5th year senior and started all last year and has seen plenty of time already, so they are in good shape there. ISU off a so-so win against Kansas last week after upsetting Texas. This should be a better than advertised game, as ISU can move the ball, but play little defense and NU’s offense may give them trouble. A lot of points on the road after a big win, Lean to the host to cover.

Baylor @ Okie State -7 – Baylor sits atop the South rankings but are playing a team whose only loss is to #6 ranked Nebraska, a game they were in till mid fourth quarter. Baylor off a huge win and now travel back to back here, while OSU off a pretty tough game and 10 point win at Kansas State. This should be a shootout in Stillwater without question as these two teams 1 and 2 in scoring offense’s in the Big 12. The Total is 73 in this game, the highest for either team all season, I lean to the UNDER. This will be a hard fought game with equal teams, slight edge to OSU at home, UNDER is my lean.

Colorado -8 @ Kansas – If you look at the list of injuries for Colorado it is flat out scary that they are laying 8 to anyone at home or on the road. Given the fact half their OL is out, and QB Hansen is gone for the season, the Buffs face a tough test the rest of the way out, but this is a winnable game on the road. Look for Kansas to possibly get a QB from the stands as they are on their fourth QB so far due to injury and none are ready to play, what a mess for Turner Gill. Look for Colorado to sneak out a win here by 10, lean to visitor.

Other games this weekend include my Big 12 Game of the MONTH between Texas AM and Oklahoma, so look for that. Missouri travels back to back weeks laying 4 at Texas Tech who just got waxed on the road at Texas AM and their last home they were beaten by 17 against Okie State and have lost 4 out of their last 6. SOLID Lean to Mizzou in this one. Texas travels to Kansas State laying 4 points and both teams are reeling. At day’s end the Longhorns have better talent and should win a close one, but Texas not bankable as they have lost 9 out of their last 11 games ATS, small lean to Texas here but a stay away game for me.

Big 12 Weekly Report - Horn Hunting in Lincoln!

2010-10-12T18:14:00Z

By Tony George

A KEY week in the Big 12 in terms of setting the stage for a season ending showdown, the last of it's kind for the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they move to the Big 10 next year. I honestly feel if NU can get over on Texas in Lincoln, they will end up seeing Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. The old rivalry renewed with OU and NU both in the Top 10 and vieing for a national title. It very well could happen.

Some real KEY games this weekend and some excellent macthups that really have season long implications. Mizzou takes to the road for the first time this week and the Wildcats and Jayhawks hook up early in the week.

Lets get right to it boys, my takes and leans for this weeks action in the Big 12

Texas @ Nebraska -9.5 - The Huskers have had this one circled since their spring game, the Big 12 championship score on the scoreboard all week in Lincoln and replays from last years game stick in the minds of the rerturners, all 18 of them for NU who lost a last second heartbreaker to Colt McCoy and the Longhorns last year, a game they dominated. Texas back on their heels and reeling, staring at 3 losses after this one if they cannot beat NU.

Nebraska has a new ace in the hole with all world speedster QB Martinez making national headlines and Nebraska off a complete butt kicking of K State on ESPN last week for all the world to see. You think NU is ready for this one? Texas cannot run the ball, but can throw it, and with NU's pass rush solid and their secondary in the top 2 or 3 in the nation, at home, expect Nebraska to compete here. Bo Pelini has been waiting for this one since last December, and Texas needs this win to save their season. Texas gave OU all they wanted and then some, can they get over on NU in Lincoln and is near 10 points too many?

BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK - Look for it now!

Kansas St -2.5 @ Kansas - THURSDAY NIGHT SELECTION. In State rivalry, Kansas is struggling and K Satte is licking their wounds and now on a back to back ESPN Thursday games. Can Kansas stop RB Thomas and play like they did against Georgia Tech at home, or does K State get it going again after that Nebraska debacle? I have the answer.

Mizzou @ Texas AM -2.5 - Not sure about Mizzou in this one as they begin a brutal stretch of games and have OU on deck at home, the line opened at Texas AM -1.5 and is climbing, and word is in my line of work many big time players love AM here. I am not sold on either team, and QB Gabbert is banged up for Mizzou with a bad hip but is likely to play. Texas AM is a disappointment to date and their offense has struggled and they have been a turnover machine. This one could go either way and home field is huge for the Aggies here, and this is the Tigers true first road game after playing weak sisters all season with the exception of Illinois. Texas AM off 2 brutal games, while Mizzou buried the Buffs last week. Tough spot however for Mizzou without a running game. Very small lean to the host. I am not as confident as allot of the sharps pounding Texas AM in this one, they have only shown me how to lose all season and the Tigers are undefeated and ranked.

Okie State @ Texas Tech -3 - WOW, a 3 point line move on Texas Tech right out of the gate in this one. A tough win over a fiesty Baylor bunch last week in the Cotton Bowl for Texas Tech. Okie State can move the ball and so can Texas Tech. This is going to be a old fashion Texas Shootout in my opinion, lean to the over 69. The QB's in this game have 35 TDs combined on the year, and neither team cares about running it, although Okie State should with RB Hunter, but they refuse to. Probably cost them the game here if they dont. Lean to the Over.

Baylor @ Colorado +1 - The Baylor Bears stand at 4-2 and Colorado is reeling after a pounding in Columbia last week. QB Griffen for Baylor the real deal and is a major danger for the Buffs. Yes, Colorado beat Georgia in here, but Baylor a different animal who is VERY well coached by Art Briles, and hungry for a win after a near miss in the Cotton Bowl against Tech last week, a game they could have won. I look for Baylor to avenge a home loss last year when Griffen was out with injury and claw the Buffs in this one. Lean to the visitor.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma -23.5 - After the Cyclones allowed 68 at home against Utah last week, I cannot make a case for them here in this one as OU has a winnable game at home before traveling to Mizzou next week. Mizzou not a team this year that is a really a look ahead game as in the past few years so OU should have full attention on ISU who they barely beat last year 17-7 in Ames in a struggle. Iowa State was exposed on defense last week and OU will expose them again with QB Jones who has nearly 1500 yards and 11 TDs already. I do not like laying this many points in any conference game this time of year, but ISU comes in here deflated and beat up, OU rolls.

Best of luck and check out my action this week and weekend, curently 6-4-1 ATS in Big 12 premiums and looking to add 2-0 to that number this weekend.