The King Maker

THE KING MAKER'S NFL/NCAA Record Page

The King Maker — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 00:15:00 GMT

THE KING MAKER'S 2010 FOOTBALL RECORD AND WAGERS

I'm not going to use The Sports Monitor for the Fall, but I'll keep the record and the wagers right here, so that everything is visible. I like The Sports Monitor, and I have no real complaints, but I think it's imperative that every handicapper that takes money for their information should be as transparent as possible.

The one drawback is that I'm going to post FLAT BETTING numbers. Every wager that has a line attached to it is going to be 10-Stars (1-Unit). Every wager is the same. As always, you'll wager whatever you want on a game, regardless of what I tell you. So I'll post every graded wager when it goes final. You'll see all the FREE wagers long before kickoff. FREE and PAID are the same thing. My FREE plays are part of my record, because they mean something. FREE doesn't mean "weaker". FREE plays aren't window dressing.

NFL Record: 24-17 (10-3 on FullTotals); Team totals 2-2

Atlanta -1 (-110) RD LOSS

Cincinnatti +5.5 (-110) LOSS

Green Bay -3 (-110) RD WINNER

Baltimore +1.5 (-110) WINNER

San Diego -4 (-110) LOSS

No NFL plays for Week 2: I simply Needed to see these teams objectively for one week.

The Cincinatti Bengals -3 (-110) WINNER

The Dolphins/Jets OVER 35.5 (-110) WINNER

The Chicago Bears +3 (-110) WINNER

The Miami Dolphis PICK EM (-110) LOSS

The Chicago Bears +3.5 (-110) LOSS

The Bengals/Browns OVER 37 (-110) WINNER

The Cincinatti Bengals -2.5 (-110) LOSS

The Bills/Jags OVER 41 (-110) WINNER

The New York Jets -4 (-120) WINNER

The Pittsburgh Steelers -14 (-110) WINNER

The Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) LOSS

Buffalo/Baltimore OVER 39.5 (-110) WINNER

The New York Giants +3.5 (-110) WINNER

The Miami dolphins +1 (-110) WINNER

The Houston Texans +5.5 (-110) LOSS

Baltimore Ravens OVER 23 points WINNER! (doesn't count in record)

The Chicago Bears -3 (-105) PUSHER

Baltimore/atlanta OVER 43.5 (-110) WINNER!

NY Jets/Cleveland Browns OVER 36.5 (-110) WINNER!

The Pittsburgh Steelers -5 (-110) LOSS

Philadelphia Eagles / Washington Redskins Under 44 (-110) LOSS

The Buffalo Bills +4.5 (-110) at Bookmaker for 10-Stars WINNER!

The Bills/Bengals OVER 41 (-110) at BetUS for 10 Stars WINNER!

The Cleveland Browns +2 -110 at BetUS for 10-stars LOSS!

The Cleveland Browns OVER 20.5 (-115) LOSS (Not on Record)

The Indianapolis Colts OVER 23 (-115) WINNER! (Not on Record)

The New York Giants OVER 21.5 (-105) LOSS (Not on Record)

The Chicago Bears +3 (-110) WINNER!

The New York Jets/Bengals OVER 43 (-110) LOSS

The KC Chiefs -1 (-120) WINNER!

The Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-110) LOSS

The Bills/Vikings OVER 43.5 WINNER!

The Buffalo Bills +5 (-110) LOSS!

The Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) LOSS!

The Patriots/Jets OVER 44 (-110) WINNER!

The New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) EASY WINNER!

Miami Dolphins/NY Jets OVER 38 (-110) LOSS!

The Atlanta Falcons -6 (-110) at BetUS WINNER!

The New Orleans Saints +3 (-110) WINNER!

The Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110) LOSS!

The Seattle Seahawks +10.5 (-120) WINNER!

NCAA Basketball 2010

Totals 4-6 Team Totals 2-0 Sides 4-3

St. Johns University OVER 70 points (-115) WINNER!

The Georgetown Hoyas OVER 70.5 (-115) WINNER!

George Mason +3 (-110) LOSS!

Oklahoma/Kentucky OVER 140 (-110) PUSH!

Tennessee/Villanova OVER 143 (-120) WINNER!

The Michigan Wolverines +9 (-110) OUTRIGHT WINNER!

The Baylor Bears -9 (-120) WINNER!

Northern Iowa +3.5 (-120) LOSS!

The Georgetown Hoyas -1.5 (-110) LOSS

Tennessee/Pittsburgh OVER 140 (-110) WINNER!

Tennessee/Oakland OVER 151 (-120) WINNER!

The Auburn Tigers +12 (-120) PUSH

Northern Arizona/Arizona OVER 142 (-110) LOSS!

Tennessee/Charlotte OVER 143 (-120) LOSS!

Baylor/Gonzaga OVER 140 (-110) at BookMaker LOSS!

Florida/Kansas State OVER 134 (-110) at SI and SBG LOSS!

USC +9 (-110) WINNER! (Not part of the record)

USC/TN UNDER 133 (-120) WINNER! (Not part of the record)

The South Florida Bulls +9 (-110) WINNER!

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies +9.5 (-110) WINNER!

Indiana/Minnesota OVER 137.5 (-110) LOSS!

Purdue/Penn State OVER 126 (-110) WINNER!

Pittsburgh/Georgetown OVER 139 (-110) LOSS!

NCAA Record: 16-16 with Rush Dominance Wagers at 4-5 and SEC Wagers ARE 8-4

Minnesota -3 (-110) RD WINNER

Northwestern -3.5 (-110) RD LOSS *

Cincinnatti +3 (-110) LOSS

Boise State +1.5 (-110) WINNER

Auburn -1.5 (-110) RD WINNER *

West Virginia -12.5 (-110) LOSS

South Carolina -3 (-110) WINNER *

Alabama -12 (-110) RD WINNER *

Miami +9 (-110) LOSS

Oregon -11 (-120) WINNER *

California -2.5 (-110) LOSS

Arkansas +2 (-110) WINNER *

LSU -7(-125) WINNER *

Auburn -7 (-110) RD LOSS *

The Miami Hurricanes -3 (-125 or -120) WINNER

The Kentucky Wildcats +440 LOSS

The Kentucky Wildcats +14 (-110) LOSS

The Nevada Wolfpack -4 (-110) Top Play RD WINNER

Oklahoma State -2.5 (-110) WINNER!

The Wisconsin Badgers -2 (-110) RD LOSS!

San Diego State Aztecs -4.5 (-110) RD LOSS

The Central Florida Knights -5 (-120) WINNER

Cincinnatti/Louisville OVER 56 (-110) WINNER

UTEP Miners -3 (-120) LOSS

UTAH Utes -20.5 (-110) WINNER

Ohio state Buckeyes -4 (-110) LOSS

The Cincy Bearcats -8 (-110) LOSS

The Texas Longhorns -20.5 (-110) LOSS

The Alabama Crimson Tide -16.5 (-110) WINNER

West Virginia -5.5 (-110) LOSS

Tennessee -7 (-135) WINNER (Not on Record)

Auburn Tigers PK (-110) WINNER!

RD=Rush Dominance

* Signifies SEC Wager

Our Little Umpire THREAT for Tuesday: Larry Vanover

The King Maker — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 02:01:00 GMT

The Number #1 Threat to Pitchers on Tuesday:

Larry Vanover: VERY small Left Side (catcher's left hand). VERY small High Zone.

He's 9-4 to the OVER even though he's running a 2.35 K/BB ratio!!!! He's filling up his sheet with UNDER percentages, but this is a result of Pitchers that have scouted Vanover. They seem to immediately sense the batter friendly inside on the RHB, and they can't hide in that outside edge on the southpaws. This is a nice "cornering" effect on pitchers, which means that the Ump has restricted the top of the zone and one of the edges to form a tight corner on half of the strike zone.

So you get this Umpire with UNDER surface stats, but he actually has a pre-negotiated OVER zone for the pitcher. Veterans see this, and they pitch accordingly. Rookies don't know what the hell they're doing, but they learn quickly.

11 runs per game on average this year.

He threw us off in 2009 with a weak schedule.

He was in the 10 run zone in 2008 and 17-12 Over.

But what we want to prey on is the pitchers that need the top zone to throw off batters. They won't get it in a Vanover zone....The 10% top pitching hurlers need that sort of diversion to throw off a batter...sometimes to mask a weak change-up.

So who do we have?

Oh Lord! Dontrelle Willis is not locating against UNDER Umpires, so I think we have a Crapper in the making on this one. He was horrible against the Yanks, and they didn't have to work hard, since only 27 of his 67 pitches were thrown for strikes.

Dontrelle owns left handed batters this year, and it's the RHB's that are tearing him up. This is a bit of a problem because Dontrelle doesn't really need the zones that Vanover is fond of stealing from pitchers on the Right Handers. He'll lose the little "high-low" switch-a-roo on the RHB's but it's not a devastating zone for him on paper. ON PAPER!

But if he's not locating, then what does it matter?

The important thing to consider is that Vanover is closing off a corner of the zone to a pitcher that isn't locating well.

If you want me to say Willis is going to get destroyed, then I CAN'T say that, but you MUST locate with Vanover. Dontrelle should be able to pitch his game, but there won't be any diversionary pitches and that's never good for him.

Don't back him in this zone.

I don't see a ton of trouble for Wainright, but his treatement of left handers will take a ton of skill. I think he should command the RHB's pretty well, and this zone will crimp him on his low inside stuff on the Righty, but I think he has the Fastball to get him out of the counts that don't favor him. You'll see a lot of pitches thrown for strikes by both pitchers and Dontrelle should suffer much more than Adam. if there's contact, then we can seek an over, but i think Adam might smoke Zona (unless there's a reason for his lousy outing in the last game. (I'll try to find out, but Maholm made me look like a dipshit, so who knows.)

Historically:

Dontrelle sucks in Larry Vanover's zone:

Larry Vanover dismantled Dontrelle in 1.1 innings against Cleveland with 8 earned runs and 4 walks with just 2 strikeouts a few years back, so I wonder what the Cards will do to him tomorrow......

On May 29th of last season the Orioles killed Dontrelle with 10 hits, 7 Earned, only 1 strikeout...all in 5 innings.

Wanna go back to 2007? Paul Maholm and the Pirates beat him with Vanover calling the shots. 114 pitches in 7 innings and only 9 base runners, but he lost and Pitt sucked then...just as now! Dirty, Stinking, Maholm! (Naw, Great game.)

I think we might be able to do SOMETHING with this......take the info and run with it boys!!!!!!

Any suggestions?

HERE'S A FEW TRINKETS FOR YOU! Saturday information for the masses!

The King Maker — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 23:59:00 GMT

Sexy Saturday!

WE have two mediocre "worm killers" in Baltimore!

Livan Hernandez floats 30% of his pitches right at the gopher's forehead, and Mister Bergeson of Balto NEVER gets into the upper strike zone, so we have two fellas that don't strike out many batters but, when they get their groundballs in the upper teens, these cats can hurt an OVER. What we need is an umpire that limits or eliminates the low zone, but we drew Bob Davidson! AND this is what Bob calls a strike:

Crawford and Madden were ejected after this pitch.........Bobby Davidson is a pitcher's best friend, and he likes to puke up a strike zone that Glavine and Maddux would love! So I'd say we can't really prey on the lack of up'ness that Livan possesses. I think he might have a buddy in Bobby behind the plate.

It's a day game, and the shadows will be creeping into a bad spot for batters too....

Livan is traditionally bad when facing Baltimore batters, but he's had some pretty terrible years, and I've noticed that he's given up only 1 home run in the last 583 pitches....Yup....Wide Zone, no homers, and a shadow creeping in? Look for Livan to get some luck.

Toss out the .314 Batting Average that Balto owns on poor Livan.

Ignore the fact that he's only struck out 13 batters in the last 4 games.....

Bergeson is the CRAPPER: If I told you that a pitcher was toting an 11.12 ERA around in June; and a 10.80 ERA against the team he was facing on Saturday; and if I told you that Southpaws were batting .358 with a Barry Bonds-like 1.018 OPS; and if I told you that right handed batters were tagging him for a nice .287 average.......AND that available Natty Bats were hitting .321 against him....what would you say?

Well: I think you would say that Washington NEVER does well for us, so why start now!

Ahhhh: I'd suggest a really deep...soul searching...look at this game.Let's see what they offer us! :)

San Diego at Florida

John Garland is another "worm killer" that's running a terrible ERA in June (6.38). The 4 runs he gave Baltimore shouldn't have been charged to him, but it doesn't hide the fact that he's coming back down to Earth.

This ground ball pitcher had exactly ONE ground ball in 5 innings of work on June 14th. He struck out 7 but gave up 4 walks and six hits with a home run. So that hiccup at Baltimore in his next start wasn't exactly a fluke. But LARRY VANOVER was his Umpire, so the reasoning for that ONE grounder was clear. He had to go up into the zone to meet Vanover's expectations!

The 1.50 ERA that he's earned against Florida came a long while back, boys, but he's seen these guys on more than one occasion and he's held them to a .228 BA. So we have to wonder if we can play the Fatigue card yet.......Can we? Or can Garland help us get an UNDER!!!!!

John Hirshbeck is his umpire: He possesses a fairly large HIGH zone and a large RIGHT side, and that's probably why Roberto Alomar spit on him. Can't remember where that pitch was.....ANYWAY:

The Large right side would suggest that Garland might be able to tag another bad outing on the Florida bats! Garland HIDES on the far side when he faces the right handed batters, ok?

We might think UNDER.....we might not...........is he tired? Is Garland a possible STRONG DOG?

The Phils and the Jays!

Paul Schrieber is calling the Phillies game!!!!!!

This is what the Hardball Times used to say about Paul:

"Paul Schrieber: Favors hitters second-most in the league, but has a normal sized zone on the left side of the plate. Right-handed hitters must love him—he is very stingy on both the high or low strike (under -3 for both) and doesn’t call the outer half of the plate on them. When he’s behind the plate, pitchers are going to have to come inside and keep it closer to the belt."

Arizona at Tampa

The D-backs haven't seen Price. The left handed Arizona bats don't stand a chance with Tim McClelland calling the balls and strikes. The low zone on the southpaws for both teams will be pitcher friendly, but Price shouldn't try to get too fine on the outside low zone. McClelland will give him a ton of strikes on the lower part of the plate, and this should make him a lethal commodity tomorrow. He's got a sore groin, but I think it's not an issue. Arizona will see a steady diet of lower pitches, marked by carefully placed high, outside shots that should screw them up on both sides of the plate. Price has a green light, for NOW.

Ian Kennedy is allowing home runs at an alarming rate, and he's a wicked fly baller. He allowed 16 flyers to hit the sky in his last game. Two of them were Home Runs! He's had 6 home runs in the last 4 games and it'll be a hot one tomorrow!

For what it's worth: McClelland will slow the production of fly balls for Kennedy, but not enough to counter Price, ok?

These are a few games that are sticking out for me, but there's a lot of work to do...if I see more oddities, then I'll slap em down, ok?

Hope all is well for you guys tonight!

THE KING MAKER'S "WORM KILLER" REPORT

The King Maker — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 19:01:00 GMT

I've done the math. I've seen the reports and graphs. And it's very clear that the teams that hit too many grounders score the fewest runs. AND, as you know, line drives and fly balls are important factors in generating runs, and walks actually have a bigger impact on scoring runs than fly balls. High strikeout rates and many ground balls lead to victory (Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Timmy Lincecum).

It seems like common sense, and it is.

So I've developed an added system for locating situations where the Grounder and a high K-Rate overlap with a "worm killing" Umpire. I'll look for multiple batters that swat at the low zone, and I'll find the right defenses for our system. It sounds rather simple, but it takes a ton of work. And you rarely see anyone applying this "overlap" technique in real time, with money on the line.

The goal is to send out alerts on potential "worm killers". A "worm killer" is a pitcher that relies on a high ground ball rate for survival. The tricky thing is that there are 4 kinds of "worm killer". You have the boys that reside in the Northeast quadrant of a GB%-K-BF Graph: These are the dominant Killers. Then you have weak Killers in other parts of the graph.

GB% lies on the y-axis (vertical) and "K/batters faced" covers the x-axis (horizon).

I'm trying to be as clear as possible, but when I plot my "worm killers" (ground ball pitchers) on the graphs I can find the dominant pitchers in the Northeast part of the graph, and then we can see the inverse (weak grounding pitchers) in the Southwest zones.

I WANT PITCHERS THAT HAVE HIGH GROUND BALL RATES AND HIGH K-RATES TO FOLLOW.

I WANT PITCHERS WITH HIGH GROUNDBALL RATES AND SMALL K-RATES TO FADE OR AVOID.

The goal is to find dangerous spots on OVERS, or find sweet spots on UNDERS. A dominant "worm killer" can destroy a Total or enhance a Total. The same goes for a weak Killer. The job is to discern the value in each situation.

I've compiled 25 Dominant "worm killers" like the following....Halladay, Sabathia (when healthy), Hernandez, Jimenez, and a number of hidden jewels like Doug Davis? (we'll see).

I've targeted about 30 Weak "worm killers" like the following.....Carmona, Maholm, Lannan, Cook, Kendrick........

When I see the guys on my lists, I'll transpose their umpire's strike zones and run a scan on the opposing batters, the BAIP, the ISO, and a handful of useful periferals, and the end result will be an alert on the likelihood of a low scoring affair, or a dominant performance by a guy like Halladay (Who plays tonight). We might be able to locate double play potential as well......but "luck" might be a factor there.

Why did I come up with this?

Wandy Rodriguez confused the crap out of me yesterday and when I'm confused I go to work.......You can make fun of the "Worm Killer" and the CPI, but I think they're going to make more money than they lose in the second half.

I just wanted you to know where my brain was today......I have to decrease risk and the only way to do it is to WORK my ass off. We can work through the bad luck and probably find a reliable addition to the CPI and The King Maker System. Something has to change, right?

The King Maker's Crappy Pitcher Index: THREE plays Posted..

The King Maker — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 16:12:00 GMT

THE CRAPPY PITCHER INDEX (CPI)

The King Maker's Plays for Tonight:

Play #1: The Boston Red Sox -1.5 (EVEN) at BetUS for 5-Stars

Play #2: The Philadelphia Phillies -1/2 -135 at BetUS (strong)

Play #3: The Minnesota Twins -125 at BetUS for 5-Stars

My new "source" is adding this play:

The Boston Red Sox -150 at BetUS

(We already have the Boston RL so I'm just giving you and FYI, she's rarely wrong.)

The title of this daily blog will change. In many ways the term "crappy" is a little misleading and certainly unprofessional, so I'll get on the sensitivity wagon and refrain from offending our starting pitchers with the word "crap".

The other problem with the term Crappy" lies in the fact that many of the pitchers that we discuss will be really wonderful pitchers (on paper). Is it kosher to call Roy Oswalt a "crappy pitcher" if his WHIP is 1.08 on the season? He IS carrying a 5.40 ERA over the past 21 days! He won't be on the CPI today, but he's locked in a battle with one of the best pitcher on the card today, so that 5-8 record, on the season, should effect your confidence with that 3.12 ERA in 2010.

For all his hard work, Roy Oswalt averages 4 runs of support in his appearances......Timmy Lincecum gets well over 6 runs per game from his team so the gap is really noticable.

But this leads us to another problem with an Ace like Lincecum. The fact of the matter is that he might be on the CPI if we looked into the reality of his situation. Before he took care of his last three opponent (Oak,Bal,Pitt), there was a dreadful span of 20 walks in 4 games with only 19 strikeouts! Teams are stealing on him. His "first pitch strike average" is hovering around 50% (almost 60% last year) AND, before his little 3 game run with lousy batting orders, he was sitting with a 19.23 pitches per inning average! His control might appear to be resurrecting itself, but I'd suggest that you simply wait for him to perform against a strong batting order before you make a determination on his value. He has the Astros today, so I guess he's got a nice shot at grabbing a win, but if Bourne gets on base then he's going to reach scoring position. Tim is not stopping the baserunners these days. If we get a big strike zone we might feel safer with Lincecum. If we get a batter-friendly zone then lay off entirely.

Moyer? A Crapper?

On the flip side, we have Jamie Moyer sitting on a 6.50 ERA over the past 21 days, but his WHIP, over that span, is 1.22 (1.13 on the season); AND the Phillies are throwing up a ton of runs when facing a pitcher like Talbot (of Cleveland). It seems like the Phils resign themselves to destroying Moyer's weaker opponents. We sorta like that kind of weirdness! Garland, Burnette, and Wolf were destroyed by the Phillies as they capitalized on weak pitching for their aging starter. Don't forget the 2 hitter in 9 innings with the Braves (7-0) and the shelling of Johan Santana (11-5)...all since May 2nd!!!!! Lots of runs, folks. That's 6,6,6, 7, and 11 runs in the above-mentioned games (a couple of goose eggs have appeared, but those run totals are pretty nice over a 2 month span in Moyer starts, right?

So let's get on with today's CPI!

#1 Crapper: Chris Narveson

Narveson has a better ERA than Moyer over the last month (6.21), but his WHIP is 1.48 and his seasonal ERA and WHIP are 5.79 and 1.62, so we have a ton of consistancy with Chris' level of ineptitude. His 5-4 record is somewhat mystifying, but when we look into this oddity we can see that the Brewers are 2-5 over his last 5 starts. Narveson has pitched in 3 games this month and he's allowed 18 hits and 9 walks in 17.1 innings. His only bright spot was a win over Texas, but it was a fluke. His ground ball rate jumped to 11. His only other win over the last 7 games came against Pittsburgh (14 grounders), so we know that he CAN win if he keeps the ball on the ground. But this is a 28.571% 'happening".

What we want to look for an Umpire that disallows the low outside zone on the catchers left hand side. Narveson will go inside and low on right haded batters and he absolutely NEEDS the low outside zone on southpaws. We don't have an umpire in this game until about 40 minutes before the first pitch, so I'll call him out at 7:30 EST for you.

You would think that Chris has a slight advantage when facing a team that hans't really seen him, but he's faced 5 Minnesota batters in the past and they created 3 base runners on Narveson...it's a negligable sample, but it's fun to see.

Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, and Span are lining up in a left-on-left situation with Narveson, but the advantage of this arrangement dissapears if we get an Umpire that disallows the low zone, ok?

Every Minnesota switch hitters will go right handed tonight and we should lose a lefty, in Kubel, since the DH is not in effect.

Narveson is holding left handed batters to a .219 batting average, but the right handers are belting out a .324 BA on the southpaw! Narveson is throwing close to 90 pitches per 5 innings on AVERAGE and Philly took him to 130 pitches in 5.2 innings one month ago!

The oppositions run totals for Narveson's duration on the mound since Memorial Day?: 5,2,4,5,4.

The oppositions run totals against Milwaukee when Narvenson starts since memorial day?: 5,2,5,13,5

Logic suggests a play on Minnesota OVER 4.5 Runs -120

We need an Umpire that disallows the low zone, and we need to see Minnesota's batting order at around 7:30 PM EST to make this a King Maker Play, but it seems like we can line up the percentages and guess on that line going over.

The Twins -125 might be a play as well.

#2 Crapper: Mitch Talbot

He has a 37/31 K/BB ratio. He's coming off a disaster against the fickle Mets with 13 hits and 8 runs, and his flip-flopping GB/FB rates are showing a decided lack of consistancy. Location is a problem for Mitch with 99 pitches in 4 innings with Andy Fletcher calling the game (Pitcher Friendly Umpire) and he threw 95 in 5.2 (Even though he induced 17 ground balls!) in his last disaster. He's all over the place and the 2.00 ERA that he held in the early weeks is nothing more than the sign of a hyper kid throwing his heart out. Now that he's been "discovered", opposing batters are waiting him out. His lack of strength against right handers is a telling stat. He shows NO advantage against his dominant side (.324 to RHB). I don't think it matters that most of the Phillies power comes from the Left. It should disrupt the rhythm of Talbot. He swings wide on "lefty" and pounds the zone on "righty". The fact that he has a decent BA when facing the southpaw is a condition of luck and impatience by KC, Baltimore, The White Sox (twice), and Anaheim in recent weeks. Philly is much stronger than all of these teams.

Mitch pitches to contact with right handers and he plays keep away with the southpaws. If we get a batter friendly strike zone, then Philly CAN hit 6 runs tonight. If Talbot can use the far outside of the southpaw batting zone, then we might see Philly start to chase the wide side.....

If we get an OVER Umpire then the Phillies will kill him.

UMPIRE IN THE PHILLY'S GAME! 5:40 pm est

Added Update: Brian Knight won't give Talbot any charity. He's got a pitcher friendly High Zone, but it comes at the expense of the low zone, so the Phils WILL have offensive power tonight! You have a definite Green Light on -190 if you're rich and I'm toying with the RL in this wager... Rollins is leading off for the Phils!

Added note: I think the Red Sox Run Line has a nice chance at hitting tonight...

A Side Note

I've also added a partner/source to my baseball handicapping, and I'll introduce this person when we learn to combine our talents. We went 6-1 in a testing phase last weekend, so I'm close to using this person as a reliable source.

The King Maker's Plays for Tonight:

Play #1: The Boston Red Sox -1.5 (EVEN) at BetUS for 5-Stars

Play #2: The Philadelphia Phillies -1/2 -135 at BetUS (strong)

Play #3: The Minnesota Twins -125 at BetUS for 5-Stars

I'm not waiting on the lineups or the Ump in the Minny game. The wager needs to go in now....

The Angel Campos Journal by the King Maker

The King Maker — Mon, 03 May 2010 11:47:00 GMT

Angel Campos has a very small LOW zone. (proven)

Angel runs a K/BB ratio that rests in the 2.20-2.40 range during the last few seasons, but he's become a terror to pitchers during the first weeks of 2010. He was deceptive to me, because he had a 15-17 Over/Under record in 2009 (17-5 in 2007), but his numbers, aside from the high home run rate, were all pointing to an UNDER umpire (Strike Rates, K/BB, Pitcher matchups).

He had a 2.40 K/BB ratio in 2009! This is a massive UNDER indicator if the Strike Rate is high.

But the fact of the matter is that I RE-learned something about my statistical approach:

1. A High strike rate CAN mean that the pitchers are FORCED to throw more strikes. My traditional view was to assume a larger zone when I was beginning my umpire work (in 2005), but the contrary CAN exist, and Angel is a perfect example. It's just so rare that I got mechanical and robotic with my assessment.

2. Home Run Rate is an underrated number. This innocuous stat can be influenced by weather, hitters, bad pitchers, and just luck, but it is a deadly indicator if it agrees with strike rate, K/BB, and Total runs.

Angel Campos is one of the larger anomalies in strike zone analysis. He's going to be erratic on totals and he can range from that 17-5 OU (2008) and he's just as likely to shift to a 15-17 (2009) again, but he's trending hard in the Over department and I was snakebitten because I FAILED to respect the HR rate. Angel is a hard nut to crack, but we have him in our sights now.

On May 2nd we played the Nationals and Marlins UNDER 8.5, and most of the statistical outliers supported our assessment, but I was blinded by a lazy look at Campos and we paid for it.

Johnson and Lannan were NOT getting the low zone in that game . Angel was completely consistant and both pitchers drew walks and then sniffed out the situation.

The result? Both pitchers began to move away from the low zone. Both pitchers lifted their pitches into the "hot" zones of the batter and, in that instance, the batters became dominant. The zone became a hitter's zone!

It was a humid day and the only thing that was needed was contact. The wager lost in the bottom of the 6th inning, but I rarely lose without reviewing the reason for the loss. We'll make money from this loss.

Verdict to watch?

*THE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT IS THAT CAMPOS CAN REMOVE THE LOW ZONE. This is the reason for the consistantly high HR rates and it's also the contributiing factor to that high strike rate.

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The KINGMAKER'S Umpire Biographical Blogs: Terms and Conditions :)

The King Maker — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:48:00 GMT

My original use of the term "King Maker" comes from a baseball handicapping system that I developed a few years ago. The King Maker System was an extremely popular subject at Pregame and it exploded with the help of my partner (The Game/JD). With his help, we gathered as many as 2,200-3,000 page views during a period when Pregame had a much smaller membership base. In the end, I can thank the King Maker System for my job at Pregame, so I thought I'd re-introduce certain segments to the archives.

Here's a clip from an article in 2008:

"Formerly known as Three2Won, The King Maker shifted gears to professional sports betting after retiring from a career in stock trading. On Pregame’s active forum community, The King Maker made a name for himself by developing a one-of-a-kind winning "Kingmaker system for betting Major League Baseball”, and was one of Pregame’s best baseball handicappers during the 2007 season.

By taking a 360-degree approach to utilizing information, The King Maker has created a system not only for baseball, but for basketball as well, hitting 70% of his plays during the month of February 2008, boosting him into March Madness."

It's clearly time to get back to the basics with my baseball experiments, so I'm diving back in......

The Umpire IS "The King Maker"

The form of capping that I use in baseball comes from the assumption that two players handle the ball on nearly every possession. If we keep this in mind, then we can leverage a ton of focus on the two men that affect almost every pitch (Pitcher/Catcher). The pitcher and catcher don't work in a vaccuum, so we have to look at the immediate secondary indicators (batter, fielders, Umpire).

Every secondary indicator has equal merit, and we have to weigh the batter and the fielders with a little more weight than an Umpire, but the hidden fact is that certain Umpires actually determine how a batter bats; how a pitcher pitches; and how a catcher calls a game. And this is why I call the "radical" Umpire a "King Maker". The King Maker determines whether an ACE will stink and he also has the power to transform a crappy pitcher into a god. In the days before computer-tracking, you could bank on the renegade umpires. Today is a little different, but I think it's important for you to know the tendencies of certain Umpires. BAIP, OPS, Range, and all of the other statistical models are VERY relevant, so please take all Umpire information as a small part of your capping package, ok?

What can we do with an Umpire database?

1. Find and record OVER and UNDER Umpires.

2. Locate great pitchers that struggle with certain Umpires.

3. Find the lousy pitchers that will get a boost from a King Maker.

4. Locate Homer Umps.

5. Locate potentially biased Umpires.

Odd-ball terms that Kevin Uses: (If I jot down terms that are not used in normal conversation, I'll post them here)

The Box: The StrikeZone

Hot Box Umpire: Usually a 12/6 K/BB Umpire that has a low home run rate and a massive grounder rate. This kind of "box" is usually built for contact.

"Shoe Box": Derryl Cousins' nickname. His strike zone shrinks to the size of a shoe box as the game progresses.

(more to come)

K/BB Ratio: Strikeout-to-walk ratio; calculated as:strikeouts divided by bases on balls.

Strike Rate: The percentage that an Umpire calls his strikes (60% is low and OVER/64% is high and UNDER)

This Blog will be tweaked and it will evovle over the next few years.......

THE KING MAKER'S SECONDARY INDICATORS: Free-Throw Percentages.

The King Maker — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 17:46:00 GMT

Charity is good, as long as you get to the stripe!

Charity Hodges

This is a real quick article in honor of a pal. He always gets nervous when we take an OVER if a lousy free-throw shooting team is in the mix. In many cases, it's a series of lousy foul shots that kill an OVER or, at least, that's what people think killed the total.

In reality, all totals are decided by the confluence of hundreds of variables, but it's often the most apparent or memorable factors that catch our attention. And this is why my buddy rejects many of our OVER calls. Everyone has lost a total by a "hook" due to a brick from the charity stripe. If you've gambled on basketball for more than 5 years, then you've lost a game by a few missed free throws. Or, at least, that's what we blame it on.

To make a long story VERY short:

Many of the more questionable free throw shooting teams have poor percentages because they shoot a boatload of free-throws!

WE took Ball State in an OVER last night. It was set at 112.5 and it cleared that number by 9 points. Ball State shoots 68% from the line (and it was closer to 66% earlier), but they are ranked #2 in the Nation in terms of scoring offense from the Charity Stripe! 28% of their offense comes from the Line, so when they took 26 foul shots last night, we were taking advantage of a hidden Secondary Indicator. IT'S NOT NECESSARILY THE AVERAGE, BOYS.....IT'S THE FREQUENCY.

Here are the teams that score almost a third of their points from the Free Throw Line:

Wyoming 69%

Ball St. 68%-66%

Colorado St. 69%

Northridge 66%

North Texas 73%

Vermont 68%-66%

Bakersfield 68%

Louisiana Monroe 73%

HARVARD (tonight) 76%

Butler 74%

The overall averages of each of these teams are pretty strong, but they usually contain players that have GREAT percentages mixed with some pretty bad players. Those 68% teams have a lot of "UGLY" on their roster.

The next batch of teams with at least 25% charity contribution are as follows:

Kansas State (65%), TAMU (64%), Arizona (75%), Washington State (70%), Washington (71%), Colorado (76%), South Florida (67%).

The teams that are shocking people: Like Kansas State and South Florida, or teams that seem to come out of nowhere with sudden covers like Colorado, Ball State, and Wyoming are doing it with speed, defense, and boards, but the common denominator is that all important Charity Stripe Factor.

I suppose I'm trying to introduce you to seconday and tertiary data strings. As handicappers we need to get underneath the "surface noise" and get into the bones and tendons of a team's functionality.

So DON'T fall for the shooting percentage.

Go after the FREQUENCY and SUCCESS RATE. 26 attempts at 66% is much better than 9 attempts at 75%, ok?

Afterall: a team can shoot 43% from the ARC, but only take 6 of those shots per game, right? The same thing goes for Free-Throws, Field Goals, and Points-Per-Shot. FREQUENCY, FREQUECY, FREQUENCY.....

I hope this makes sense, if it doesn't ,then comment for me and I'll edit for clarity.

Good luck tonight!

THE KING MAKER: TOUT SCHOOL LESSON #1

The King Maker — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:38:00 GMT

This is an open letter to all aspiring Touts

Rule #1: Your record is never as bad as it seems.

THE KING MAKER is working with a dismal 7-9 record in NCAA football. He's made his clients an abysmal $170.00 on the season. That's not what you want from your Professional is it? WELL SURE IT IS! Let me show you how to cook the books on that 7-9 showing.

I am one of the rare Professional Touts that pays to have his record tracked by an independant monitoring service, so you can dredge up my numbers and decide what you want to do with me. It's a potentially devastating system, because you can't escape your history, and that's why so many Touts shy away from being monitored at all.

TOUTS NEED CREATIVE NUMBERS! Being monitored screws that up!

Let me show you a little something about CREATIVE MARKETING.

I'm 7-9 in the NCAA at +$170.00. That isn't a whole lot to TOUT is it?

But I'm 5-2 (+$2,800.00) on my Top Plays in the NCAA (10-Star)!

Now this is something I can TOUT...."Kevin has nailed 5 out of 7 Top Plays this season and he's unleashing another winner tonight!"

Suddenly, a shitty 7-9 record gets ignored for a hidden nugget of gold (5-2).

Oh, it gets better!

I'm sitting at 9-4 in the NFL and 6-1 with my SIDES (+$3050.00)! So now I can really muddy the waters and say I am 11-3 (+$5,850.00) on my SIDE WAGERS in Football! TRULY I AM A MONEY MAKER! The 5-2 record on Top Plays in the NCAA were all SIDES, so I can creatively mix them with my stellar 6-1 SIDE record in the NFL and cook up a nice 11-3 record on SIDES

THE KING MAKER is a whopping 11-3 on Side Wagers in Football this Season! BUY, BUY, BUY!

As a TOUT I have three MARKETING windows open to me:

1. I'm 5-2 (+$2,800.00) in TOP PLAYS in the NCAA

2. I'm 11-3 (+$5,850.00) on ALL Side Wagers in Football this year!

3. I'm 9-4 (+$2,310.00) in the NFL on ALL wagers this year!

When, in fact, I'm 16-13 (+2,480.00) in Football. I'm 7-9 in the NCAA (+$170.00). And I'm 9-4 (+$2,310.00) in the NFL.

I'm not trying to slam anyone. I'm simply trying to show you how a Tout like me can cook the numbers so that their record looks much better than the actual day-to-day client works with. THIS IS ALSO A REASON WHY YOU MIGHT SEE NEGATIVE POSTS WHEN A CAPPER TRIES TO BE POSITIVE. If you'll notice, I don't have a RED dollar amount up there. I've managed my rating system well enough to survive a 48% record in the NCAA with a GREEN number. The larger question would be, how many of my viewers are GREEN after following that 16-13 Record? DO YOU THINK THEY STUCK TO MY RATING SYSTEM?

You can see why a regular client would be pissed, BUT YOU CAN ALSO SEE HOW SALES CAN BE UPLIFTED BY MOVING THE NUMBERS AROUND. Newbies don't care, and most Touts don't post a detailed record, so all those hidden options are open to me!

This is the nature of the beast. Please know what you're dealing with, ok? Touts can really cook the books and still be telling the absolute truth!

With that being said: I want to congratualte a few of my fellow Professionals.

Spartan is sitting at #4 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor with a 74% Winning rate.

Marco is one of the TOP professionals at 15-9 in NCAA Football at The Sports Monitor.

Vegas Runner is holding almost $5,000.00 in Net Profit at The Sports Monitor in the NCAA (much higher with many clients) AND he's got $7,550.00 in Net Profit in the NFL!

Mike Hook is doing VERY WELL in both NCAA and NFL Football: He's 61.11% in the NCAA and 60% in the NFL over at the Sports Monitor.

Those guys put their asses on the line by being TRANSPARENT. They deserve extra attention. They are Monitored and are dominating! Congrats boys!

That's my observation for the week.

Take it with a grain of salt.

GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI: Miami Answers ALL questions.

The King Maker — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 19:44:00 GMT

Can Miami Actually Stop The Tech Offense?

The new defensive coordinator for Miami was part of a team that shut down Tech last year (28-7 UNC Win). Unfortunately, he won't be suiting up against the Tech offense.

The important thing to note is that Vaughn Telemaque (rFR) and "Ray Ray" Armstrong (true-FR) will be playing a ton of snaps at the safety position on Thursday. I want to show you what happens to a safety that doesn't understand the "keys" to lining up against a Veer/Flex offense.

The Safety has IMPORTANT "contain" duties on the edge, and if he cheats to the line (as most youngsters will do if they need an advantage against the run), then he's going to get popped by a blocker that's trained to nail him in space.

Watch as this Miami safety gets cleared out. He's the second closest guy at the bottom of the screen: Also take note of the OLB that MUST account for the QB. And notice that the Corner has to follow the WR out of the play.....This is man vs. man! Pay attention to the DE that has to read the DIVE and takes himself out of the play. But look at the Safety, ok!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCHuJ8mqjTE&feature=related

Miami Secondary Issues:

*"Jo Jo" Nicholas (Jr) has the Flu, so they lose one experienced Safety tomorrow.

*Miami's Junior CB, DeMarcus Van Dyke, is OUT with a concussion.

*There's a 3rd Redshirt Freshman in the 3 deep at Safety as well.

Can you tell me if Miami has the tools to READ this offense from Atlanta?

Remember: it's about SMARTS and EXPERIENCE, not athletic ability.

Guys: This is a critical position to maintain against any sort of VEER or FLEX or LOAD.....

ACCOUNTABILITY: Shouldn't Every Professional Handicapper Be Monitored?

The King Maker — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 14:00:00 GMT

If you receive money from a client base, then you have the money to reinvest in a monitoring service. It's just that simple. The owner of Pregame.com actually makes it easy on willing professionals to become the subject of an independent monitoring service, it should be noted that he has done whatever he can to make this site more transparent. With that being said........

Should a "service" be trusted with their own reporting methods?

I'm sure you can answer that for yourself. When money is involved, self-regulation is NOT an acceptable form of governance.

Moving on:

The following complaints will occur, in terms of using a monitoring service.

1. "I like to buy points, and the 'monitor' won't let me."

2. "I use multiple books, and the 'monitor' uses a limited set of sources."

3. "I base a lot of my work on Teasers and the monitor doesn't accept them."

Those are valid points, but let's be honest. I don't have any solid numbers, but I believe 40% of the available client base works with a "local" source for their wagering transactions (Municipal or "Bookie"). These local sources are not as flexible as an "offshore book", so the "monitoring" guidelines are closer to reality. Teasers and large point "buys" are not accepted in those locales.

The dangers of "Forum Records":

When a record is kept in a forum, "typographical errors" become quite common. Some of those records are made out of honest human error, and some of them are outright mistakes of dubious origin. Either way, it's NOT a good way of doing business. At the end of each quarter, a corporation will release a detailed report on its balance sheet. As a money gathering entity with a performance based revenue structure, the "Service" is, or should be, bound by the same reporting methodology.

*The forum record can also be fluffed up by supporters of a given capper, or denigrated by hidden competitors of a given handicapper. The entire process of posting a forum record falls under a multitude of divergent agendas.

*TYPOS also occur in the transmission of a record from one forum to another, and the alteration of that record, in the hands of a competitor (or downright cheat) is entirely possible....AND INEVITABLE.

Forum records should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt for the above reasons.

It's taken me a while to figure out how to deal with a monitoring service, but I now believe that it's the only way to separate the touts from the legitimate handicappers. It's forced me to lean toward the needs of the clients that don't use offshore books (frankly, theses are the clients with the most at risk, by the way)

Wouldn't you be happier (as a client) if you could reference an independently monitored handicapper?

Should all "paid handicappers" be monitored by a 3rd party?

I'm open to every opinion on this matter, and would love to hear your opinions.....

How to Crush the 3-4 Defense: Tennessee has a Weapon!

The King Maker — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 01:37:00 GMT

You can CRUSH a 3-4 with two Tight Ends

This is a quick Blog to my Pregame buddies. I want you to take this Blog and apply it to every game that resembles this formula. The hard work is in the secondary and tertiary capping, but the opening screening method goes as follows:

Formula:Two Tight End Sets Occupy 3-4 Defenses to the point of neutrality.

I told you guys to take the Chicago Bears Team Total OVER in the Preseason when they faced the Broncos, because I knew the Bronco's switched to a "poor man's" 3-4 defense, and the Bears now had Green Bay's 3-4 and Detroit's 3-4 to face in the regular season.

What did they do to compensate?

The Bears had the ability to run an OFFENSIVE two-tight end set. Mister OIsen and Mister Clark can both match up with the OLB's and also line up in the slot or chip from the line to catch a pass! This drags the OLB's away from the rush, and the blitz, BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE NOSE TACKLE TO BE DOUBLE TEAMED!!!!!!

The Nose Tackle is the heart of the 3-4.

Kill him and the Middle linebackers lose "protection" and get a guard in their grill. Kill him with a double team and he gets.....DOUBLE TEAMED! HA! Two tight ends do that for an offense!

Two-Tight End Sets also:

*Tie up a safety.

*Seal Edges.

*Occupy a middle linebacker in the "seam"

*Make a screen pass effective.

I digress: Double team on the nose-tackle? Occupied Linebackers ON THEIR HEELS?

You have been notified!

Tennessee has Bo Scaife and Algae Crumpler bumping off the edges on Thursday.

FYI, brothers and sisters! Pittsburgh will have to WORK!

Suddenly, a powerful 3-4 is compromized.

I have a thread on the Titan/Steeler game as well:

http://pregame.com/forums/forums/p/94515/611414.aspx#611414

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added on Thursday afternoon: Interesting!

Pittsburgh had the 29th ranked FIRST HALF offense in the NFL last year.

They had the 9th ranked SECOND HALF offense last year.

What does that tell us?

Here's my guess:

Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offensive line, and their impact players are scrappy, but not entirely "elite" (injury was a factor).

So when Team-A's defense is fresh, they tend to hold their own against the Steeler offense, but after the Steeler defense knocks Team-A's offense off the field in 4 downs (over and over), then Team-A's defense gets worn out!

By the time the middle of the 3rd quarter rolls around, Team-A's defense is toast.

This is how a 29th ranked defense suddenly becomes a juggernaut after 2 quarters!

So what did Tennessee do this year?

They retianed 10 players for their defensive line rotation. Out of 53 players, 10 of them are on the D-line. All of them will see action tonight. It's in the design and philosophy of the Titan's system. Play a ton of lineman and kill the opposing offense in the 4th quarter. Attrition!

The question for you is.......do you think the Pittsburgh O-line can outlast the Tennessee D-line?

Is Utah State's Defensive Allignment Designed to Face the Spread?

The King Maker — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:17:00 GMT

I can't tell you if the Utah game will surpass the posted total. (not yet)

I can't tell you, with any sort of certainty, that Utah can cover 21 points tonight. (not yet)

And I'm not an expert on allignment strategy when facing a spread offense. But neither is Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma, or BYU, right?

I do know this:

Traditional 4-man defensive fronts are completely susceptible to the spread option. I'll save you all the diagrams and all the techno-jargon and give you a simple explanation as to why Appalachain State whipped Michigan or why Utah creamed Alabama or why Florida destroys every defense.

For me, it all started with Bobby Wagner (last night). He's was a talented linebacker for Utah State last season. As a Freshman he had 51 tackles, but with a horrible defensive line in front of him, he only had 2 tackles for a loss. In any case, he was the clear choice for starting outside linebacker in 2009.

BUT!

Utah's former defensive coordinator took the job at Utah State and Bobby Wagner was moved to defensive end. It's a curious move, and I was licking my chops, thinking that Utah would run over this kid whenever he lined up across from one of their 300 pound offensive tackles. You see, Bobby Wagner weighs 217 pounds.

Allignment mismatches like Utah State's 231 and 217 pound defensive ends are like candy to a handicapper. There is no way around the fact that SIZE MATTERS in the trenches. There's no way around it! Or is there?

Did it shock you that Alabama's size was useless against Utah in the bowl game last year?

Did it shock you that Michigan's defense looked like a prep school unit against App. State?

How did those big defensive ends, 3-4 linebackers, and defensive tackles get beaten by a division-1 spread offense?

A lesson:

The intention of the spread offense is to SPREAD OUT THE DEFENSE so that the offense can RUN THE BALL. The spread offense wants to run the ball between the tackles. They don't care to run the ball to the edges, because that's where the bulk of the defense has been placed. The spread offense creates weak points between the tackles, and that's why Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow made a living off SEC defenses. They'll do it again this year too.

The weakness of the defenses that face a spread is usually a strength against a Pro-Set.

The 270 pound BCS defensive ends are taught to push the tackles back. They want to collapse the pocket and get into the backfield, and when this occurs they take sweeping strides that open up a gap between the guard and tackle. With eyes upfield, the big defensive end sweeps toward the QB and a hole opens up, then the nimble little QB/RB scampers through that big gap for 8 yards.

In the spread offense, the offensive tackle will actually walk a defensive end back, then leave the end, and proceed to smash into the nearest linebacker.

WHAT! he leaves the rush end?

Indeed! The rush end will usually have the job of covering the QB, so he can't directly assualt him (for fear of losing him), so he stays parallel to the QB. The problem with the big BCS defensive end is that he's not fast enough to "hawk" the spread QB, and he's already missed the running back on a delayed handoff, so that huge gap between the guard and tackle is an "engineered" anomoly. A creation of the spread mentality; and the death of any 4 man defensive front!

So what do you do?

Let's look at what a former Utah DC would do. Well, I'm telling you what he would do. He would add a sure tackling linebacker to his defensive end grouping! IF THE OFFENSIVE TACKLE FOR UTAH IS GOING TO PEEL OFF AND HIT A LINEBACKER, THEN YOUR DEFENSIVE END MUST BE A FAST AND SURE TACKLER. A man just as fast as the QB! A linebacker body-type.

Bobby Wagner is going to be the new prototypical defensive end, and if the BCS world is watching, then they need to find a "rover" that occupies the offensive tackle for EVERY spread offense they face.

Utah State belongs to a conference that runs 3 and 4 wide recievers on all but one team, so they have to adapt, correctly, to what Utah is offering tonight. The placement of a 217 pound linebacker on the defensive line is a clear indicator of what a man, who has practiced against a spread offense for a decade, would do if he ever coached against a spread.

This little article should serve as a wake-up call for those of you that are dead set on the OVER or on Utah as a 21 point favorite. The defense that will be facing Utah tonight was not good last year; And they still don't have the personell to beat Utah, but PLEASE be aware that the Utah QB will be PROPERLY "hawked". The Aggie defense MUST play a ton of spread defense this year, and the mistake of the past coach was his inability to create the proper stops in his defenses.

This is the beginning of the Utah State revival. In three years they will win the conference. If they do well tonight (meaning if they cover), then the lines will be off for the next few weeks for USU and Utah. Utah is playing a defense that can see them coming. Other defense will still be ignorant.

This is a great game to watch. Please focus on the defensive ends for Utah and Utah State. Look to see if the tackles pull off the ends to hit a linebacker, and also look to see if the ends stay parallel to the QB or if they dive at him.

I'm just a handicapper, but this seems like a veritable petri dish!

I have to edit this today, but I'm posting it now....I apologize if the rough draft is hard to read or if I've made a few errors, but the general point is there.......

bear with me.... :)

If a DB is your leading tackler, then you might stink!

The King Maker — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:54:00 GMT

Just A Little Heads Up.

At the end of the 2007 season 25 out of the top 30 individual leaders in TOTAL TACKLES were linebackers. Five of the top 30 were defensive backs (including #4 Will Dunbar of UAB).

UAB was #114 in Total Defense.

The other 4 Defensive backs in the Top 30 in total tackles?

*Jordan Lake of Baylor (#110 in Total Team Defense)

*C.J. Spillman of Marshall (#107 in Total Team Defense)

*Alex Kube of Northern Illinois (#97 in Total Team Defense)

*Davonte Shannon of Buffalo (#72 in Total Team Defense)

My advice?

If the leading defensive tackler on a team is a defensive back, then LOOK OUT!

*UAB had the #4 tackler in the land, and he was a DB, and they gave up 487 yards per game. They gave up an average of 6.5 yards per play. They gave up 4.4 touchdowns per game and went 2-10 that year.

We can expand on this premise by locating the teams that have a high rate of DB tackles. Since the above mentioned teams already stunk on defense. What we can do is seek the higher rates of DB tackles on OVERRATED FAVORITES and, for that matter, overrated Doggies.

This should serve as a red flag in the NFL as well.

You might notice that the absence of Bob Sanders in the Colts defense causes that team to falter? You could see it in Denver, as well, in past seasons. It's a mini capping signal.

Heads up!

Please note that a DB in a "Stack" or "Pressure (man-coverage)" defense will be closer to the line. Nickle packages or Nickle copycats will also inflate a DB's tackle numbers.

Returning Starters Part II: The Defensive Lines are the key!

The King Maker — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 15:58:00 GMT

The defensive line is the lynchpin of every defense.

A strong defensive line will force a weaker offense to utilize their tight ends for blocking assignments. A weak defensive line will allow the TE to run his seam routes. When the TE runs free, then the middle linebacker has to chase him, and this opens up the vulnerable heart of the standard 4-3 defensive allignments.

A strong defensive line forces a fullback, or running back to stay in for protection.

A strong defensive line disrupts the rhythm of the quarterback.

A strong defensive line shortens routes.

A strong defensive line limits what a running back can do.

The best part of a GREAT defensive line is that it "protects" its linebackers in much the same way an offensive line protects their QB. When the linebackers run free, then an offense is compromized. The defensive line is the linchpin of any great defense.

THE MOST UNDERRATED ASPECT OF FOOTBALL HANDICAPPING IS DEFENSIVE LINE EVALUATION.

With that being said, let's look at a weak defense:

Arkansas was the worst defense in the SEC. They allowed 42 touchdowns and 4,500 yards. When you compare it to the 14 touchdowns and 3,100 yards allowed by #1 Tennessee the contrast can be stunning. Why was Arkansas so bad?

You can trace it to the defensive line. This unit is highly undersized with Adrian Davis pushing 250 pounds on one end and two tackles in the 280-290 range. There won't be a pressing need for any offensive line to double team on the inside until Petrino's recruits get settled in. Arkansas was outrushed by almost 60 yards per game last season, and the 2009 version of the Hogs looks just as weak as the 2008 unit.

I mentioned a 250 pound strong side defensive end in Arkansas. He's backed up by a "Sam" Linebacker that weighs 237 pounds and an MLB that weighs 222 pounds.

*What are they going to do when LSU runs a 315 pound right tackle and a 233 pound tailback down their throats? Oh, let me see.....last year LSU ran the ball 44 out of 65 times.

*What are they going to do when they face Alabama's 305 pound senior right tackle? Let's see.....Bama only threw the ball 15 times in the 2008 meeting.....They gained an average of 9.4 yards per carry!

I suppose I'll keep this short by saying:

In most cases....when there is a vast inequality between opposing lines, the gameplan will already be in place for you! SEC teams are no different than any other college team. Their coaches will seek the path of least resistance. FIND THE MASSIVE IMBALANCES AND YOUR JOB WILL BE EASIER.

Also remember: Totals can be assessed with this imbalance in mind. Alabama scored 49 points in that meeting with Arkansas, but they recieved the benefit of 2 interception returns for touchdowns and two huge rushing touchdowns (82 and 67 yards). The 49 points is misleading. MASSIVE LINE IMBALANCES WILL INDUCE TIME CONSUMING DRIVES! (The life gets sucked out of team totals for weaker defensive teams: less possessions for their offense, and a fresher opposing defense.)

This is one facet of football handicapping that occurs less frequently in the NFL, but it pops up all over the board on Saturdays. One can certainly argue that the run sets up the pass, and therefore totals can still rise, but in college the trend toward increased passing due to run success can be less influential.

*Even Tulsa ran the ball 47 times against Arkansas in 2008.

I hope this helps (I may try to find games where imbalances are pronounced).

Kind Regards

Kevin