THE CRAPPY PITCHER INDEX (CPI)
The King Maker's Plays for Tonight:
Play #1: The Boston Red Sox -1.5 (EVEN) at BetUS for 5-Stars
Play #2: The Philadelphia Phillies -1/2 -135 at BetUS (strong)
Play #3: The Minnesota Twins -125 at BetUS for 5-Stars
My new "source" is adding this play:
The Boston Red Sox -150 at BetUS
(We already have the Boston RL so I'm just giving you and FYI, she's rarely wrong.)
The title of this daily blog will change. In many ways the term "crappy" is a little misleading and certainly unprofessional, so I'll get on the sensitivity wagon and refrain from offending our starting pitchers with the word "crap".
The other problem with the term Crappy" lies in the fact that many of the pitchers that we discuss will be really wonderful pitchers (on paper). Is it kosher to call Roy Oswalt a "crappy pitcher" if his WHIP is 1.08 on the season? He IS carrying a 5.40 ERA over the past 21 days! He won't be on the CPI today, but he's locked in a battle with one of the best pitcher on the card today, so that 5-8 record, on the season, should effect your confidence with that 3.12 ERA in 2010.
For all his hard work, Roy Oswalt averages 4 runs of support in his appearances......Timmy Lincecum gets well over 6 runs per game from his team so the gap is really noticable.
But this leads us to another problem with an Ace like Lincecum. The fact of the matter is that he might be on the CPI if we looked into the reality of his situation. Before he took care of his last three opponent (Oak,Bal,Pitt), there was a dreadful span of 20 walks in 4 games with only 19 strikeouts! Teams are stealing on him. His "first pitch strike average" is hovering around 50% (almost 60% last year) AND, before his little 3 game run with lousy batting orders, he was sitting with a 19.23 pitches per inning average! His control might appear to be resurrecting itself, but I'd suggest that you simply wait for him to perform against a strong batting order before you make a determination on his value. He has the Astros today, so I guess he's got a nice shot at grabbing a win, but if Bourne gets on base then he's going to reach scoring position. Tim is not stopping the baserunners these days. If we get a big strike zone we might feel safer with Lincecum. If we get a batter-friendly zone then lay off entirely.
Moyer? A Crapper?
On the flip side, we have Jamie Moyer sitting on a 6.50 ERA over the past 21 days, but his WHIP, over that span, is 1.22 (1.13 on the season); AND the Phillies are throwing up a ton of runs when facing a pitcher like Talbot (of Cleveland). It seems like the Phils resign themselves to destroying Moyer's weaker opponents. We sorta like that kind of weirdness! Garland, Burnette, and Wolf were destroyed by the Phillies as they capitalized on weak pitching for their aging starter. Don't forget the 2 hitter in 9 innings with the Braves (7-0) and the shelling of Johan Santana (11-5)...all since May 2nd!!!!! Lots of runs, folks. That's 6,6,6, 7, and 11 runs in the above-mentioned games (a couple of goose eggs have appeared, but those run totals are pretty nice over a 2 month span in Moyer starts, right?
So let's get on with today's CPI!
#1 Crapper: Chris Narveson
Narveson has a better ERA than Moyer over the last month (6.21), but his WHIP is 1.48 and his seasonal ERA and WHIP are 5.79 and 1.62, so we have a ton of consistancy with Chris' level of ineptitude. His 5-4 record is somewhat mystifying, but when we look into this oddity we can see that the Brewers are 2-5 over his last 5 starts. Narveson has pitched in 3 games this month and he's allowed 18 hits and 9 walks in 17.1 innings. His only bright spot was a win over Texas, but it was a fluke. His ground ball rate jumped to 11. His only other win over the last 7 games came against Pittsburgh (14 grounders), so we know that he CAN win if he keeps the ball on the ground. But this is a 28.571% 'happening".
What we want to look for an Umpire that disallows the low outside zone on the catchers left hand side. Narveson will go inside and low on right haded batters and he absolutely NEEDS the low outside zone on southpaws. We don't have an umpire in this game until about 40 minutes before the first pitch, so I'll call him out at 7:30 EST for you.
You would think that Chris has a slight advantage when facing a team that hans't really seen him, but he's faced 5 Minnesota batters in the past and they created 3 base runners on Narveson...it's a negligable sample, but it's fun to see.
Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, and Span are lining up in a left-on-left situation with Narveson, but the advantage of this arrangement dissapears if we get an Umpire that disallows the low zone, ok?
Every Minnesota switch hitters will go right handed tonight and we should lose a lefty, in Kubel, since the DH is not in effect.
Narveson is holding left handed batters to a .219 batting average, but the right handers are belting out a .324 BA on the southpaw! Narveson is throwing close to 90 pitches per 5 innings on AVERAGE and Philly took him to 130 pitches in 5.2 innings one month ago!
The oppositions run totals for Narveson's duration on the mound since Memorial Day?: 5,2,4,5,4.
The oppositions run totals against Milwaukee when Narvenson starts since memorial day?: 5,2,5,13,5
Logic suggests a play on Minnesota OVER 4.5 Runs -120
We need an Umpire that disallows the low zone, and we need to see Minnesota's batting order at around 7:30 PM EST to make this a King Maker Play, but it seems like we can line up the percentages and guess on that line going over.
The Twins -125 might be a play as well.
#2 Crapper: Mitch Talbot
He has a 37/31 K/BB ratio. He's coming off a disaster against the fickle Mets with 13 hits and 8 runs, and his flip-flopping GB/FB rates are showing a decided lack of consistancy. Location is a problem for Mitch with 99 pitches in 4 innings with Andy Fletcher calling the game (Pitcher Friendly Umpire) and he threw 95 in 5.2 (Even though he induced 17 ground balls!) in his last disaster. He's all over the place and the 2.00 ERA that he held in the early weeks is nothing more than the sign of a hyper kid throwing his heart out. Now that he's been "discovered", opposing batters are waiting him out. His lack of strength against right handers is a telling stat. He shows NO advantage against his dominant side (.324 to RHB). I don't think it matters that most of the Phillies power comes from the Left. It should disrupt the rhythm of Talbot. He swings wide on "lefty" and pounds the zone on "righty". The fact that he has a decent BA when facing the southpaw is a condition of luck and impatience by KC, Baltimore, The White Sox (twice), and Anaheim in recent weeks. Philly is much stronger than all of these teams.
Mitch pitches to contact with right handers and he plays keep away with the southpaws. If we get a batter friendly strike zone, then Philly CAN hit 6 runs tonight. If Talbot can use the far outside of the southpaw batting zone, then we might see Philly start to chase the wide side.....
If we get an OVER Umpire then the Phillies will kill him.
UMPIRE IN THE PHILLY'S GAME! 5:40 pm est
Added Update: Brian Knight won't give Talbot any charity. He's got a pitcher friendly High Zone, but it comes at the expense of the low zone, so the Phils WILL have offensive power tonight! You have a definite Green Light on -190 if you're rich and I'm toying with the RL in this wager... Rollins is leading off for the Phils!
Added note: I think the Red Sox Run Line has a nice chance at hitting tonight...
A Side Note
I've also added a partner/source to my baseball handicapping, and I'll introduce this person when we learn to combine our talents. We went 6-1 in a testing phase last weekend, so I'm close to using this person as a reliable source.
Play #3: The Minnesota Twins -125 at BetUS for 5-Stars
I'm not waiting on the lineups or the Ump in the Minny game. The wager needs to go in now....
If you don't like KingMakers work just stay out of his thread. There's no reason for the bashing. I can't believe you haven't been warned yet.
Please tell me your new partner isn't your daughter. LOL
You rated two of your plays as 5* and the other as "strong". How does "strong" compare to your * ratings?
looking forward to your thread tomorrow, rough first day back!
Props continue to rock and sides are drooping still.
Chacin did well, but it's odd to see so many walks and have a goose egg on the board.
The CPI did ok, but I see the problem with backing Baker.
Umps tomorrow....finally some umps!!!!!
Working on that now.........
Please dont go hide, you continue to be the best "fade" on the internet.
Narveson was a crapper, but Minny seemed to let up on him....
Talbot choked in the first just like Narveson and we Won.
So far, Minny has tanked and Boston forgot how to capitalize on 5 walks from Chacin and another couple after that....
Bill Hohn is calling the Minny game.
His 2010 splits are deadly dangerous for pitchers (1.52 K/BB with 7 walks per game), but he's a Neutral guy with a fairly "normal" zone. He's actually 4-8 UNDER! But that 61% strike rate suggests a meaner glare on bad pitchers....
The front end of the Minny batting order is Southpaw heavy and the back end is all right handers....Narveson tends to do well with Lefties, so I hope Bill Hohn decides to be the OVER ump tonight...
He's an odd cat!
If the thread hits your mobile, then maybe the thread is the way to go, davidtn.
Thanks for telling me.
I graduated from UT and lived in the Knoxville area for 11 years. I love Tennessee!
This person chases me off favorites, and if you look at my wager history in the MLB this season you'll see that I'm not allergic to Dogs. ;)
Thanks for the Bump!
Is your new partner related to "Bookie Bill" and "Stan Sharp"?
Guys: I'm working with a second person these days, and it was the reason for my brief layoff: She's pretty rock solid, but I won't fully use her action until I see a larger sample, ok?
My new partner is adding this play:
I like the thread because we as forum members can get them e-mailed to us when you update and such. But I love that you used twitter, that's the only way I knew you were back. How you liking Tennessee?
Glad to see you back KM. Always enjoy your takes on the games and pitchers.
Holy shit! another 87% public favorite with reverse line movement - I know you are allergic to underdogs but wow
Good to see you too, David...by the way: I live in Tennessee now!
I'm not sure which is better. I like the Blog because I can keep the information on one page, but I'll go back tot he thread if people think it's a better format.
It's really all about the reader, not the writer.
Is the thread better or the Blog?