Note: I just posted the pick alert over my old Blog so that I wouldn't take up space in the Forum:
I'd like to apologize for not posting plays, but it wasn't out of some innate need to screw anyone.
I've been privately running a 45% win rate (which is not marketable, and not what I'm accustomed to), and it's taken me two weeks to get back on track. Two weeks ago I realized that a sizeable chunk of my system was completely out of whack. The Umpires were operating as if they've gone mad. Let me show you what I mean:
UNDER UMPS under the influence?
Jeff Nelson, Doug Eddings, and Mark Wegner are known as three of the biggest UNDER umpires in the history of the game. EVERY YEAR these guys push games UNDER with their massive strike zones.
BUT this season they are 16-5 OVER
OVER Umpires?
Holbrook, Meriwether, and Chad Fairchild are traditional OVER umpires, and they are currently 8-12 UNDER.
I'm not trying to make excuses, but I would like you to know that I've rebuilt the system by REDUCING THE UMPIRE'S EFFECT on my capping. The new strike zone tracking systems used by the MLB have apparently altered the casual way an umpire calls a game. In fact, I think the guys that have been targeted by MLB management (specifically Jeff Nelson and Doug Eddings for their oversized zones) are altering their zones dramatically.
Also: I've noticed that games with high run totals in the early innings are seeing a halt in scoring.
Oakland and Detroit had a score of 11-7 in the 5th inning yesterday. Noone scored another run for the rest of the game.
In the Cleveland game yesterday there were 12 runs by the 5th and no more for the rest of the game.
On Saturday, in AL games that saw big run totals in the first 5 innings, (3 games) THERE WERE 3 RUNS SCORED OVER 14 INNINGS IN THOSE 3 GAMES. And 3 of the 6 teams in that group have some of the worst relievers in baseball right now! Call it what you like, but the strike zones expanded in those games after the run totals went through the roof in the early innings. Another thing regarding two of those games: most teams don't waste their good relievers in a blowout (and still no runs were scored in the late innings!).
I'm not making accusations or excuses, but it's been a shock to a system that relied on the predictable nature of the UMPIRE. I corrected this by reducing the role of the Umpire in the my system and replaced him with better, and more reliable indicators. I feel pretty good about the last few days, and I believe we can start rolling out the plays.
I deeply apologize for the slow start to the 30 play package, but I didn't want to risk your money until I got a handle on what was happening. The plays will begin rolling out daily starting tomorrow, so please keep an eye out for the releases if you have the package.
Call me what you want to call me, but I NEVER throw out picks unless I'm certain that I have a handle on the games. Frankly speaking, the 30 play package is 0-3-1 (-5.50 units), but it would be closer to 13-17 if I just kept throwing out plays druring the past 4 weeks. I hope my reasoning makes sense, and I'm very eager to get on with the season! Once again, sorry for the slow start.