DO WHAT YOU WANT WITH THIS INFORMATION: After all, it's your money....
The Boston Game Is More Likely To Exceed 9 Runs.
The drawback comes first:
Lester is actually getting his strike-outs (22/7 K/BB), but he's really missing the zone on batters and it appears that he's falling into hitter's counts on far too many occasions. He struck out 7 in a recent game, but hit 114 pitches after 6 innings of work. This makes Lester an OVER capper's worst nightmare. The surface data is showing conflicting indicators, as the high strikeout rate should show a lower pitch count over 6 innings. The high strike-out rate is a concern.
So Lester makes me worry, but I also have an Umpire with a very small strike zone tonight, so the high counts should be in place tonight, BUT!
The fear thickens with past meetings between Lester and Gerry Davis (our Ump):
Davis is a dreadfully dangerous OVER Umpire.
He's 4-0 OVER with an average of 15.8 Runs per game.
But look at Lester during his last meeting with Davis: A 6-1 Win against Cleveland! (Sept 25th LY)
So there's your warning.
Why should we have succcess in runs scored?
Boston and Cleveland both have huge success against the respective "arm slots" of the opposing pitcher. It's clearly indicated in the surface stats where Boston bats .298 (7 Runs per game) VS Right Handers and Cleveland bats .280 (7 Runs per game) VS Left Handers.
Compound that with the secondary indicators that show Carmona getting torched by Boston batters to the tune of a .393 team batting average (1.017 OPS). In 28 at bats, the Sox reached base 16 times!
Lester fares quite badly against Cleveland batters as well: .322 BA (.948 OPS)
The 6-1 game last season must have been anomolous: Look at his nice numbers!
He had just 2 hits over 6 innings! But what you don't see it that there were only 4 strikeouts and just one walk. He induced 17 of the 22 batters he faced to make contact, and that led the ball into the Batting Average on Balls in Play (BAIP) realm. A pitcher's ERA is deceptive, because it is protected by his defense, so an ace, like Burnette, may have been great looking with that tremendous Jays defense backing him up, but he will suffer with a slower Jeter and a softer defense in New York (his value is misplaced). It goes the same with reviewing the surface stats of that Lester performance from last year.
Gerry Davis forced Lester to hit the strike zone, and it was just bad luck that Cleveland didnt hit the gaps on all that contact. You can tell they were impatient with Lester, when they really didn't have to be. Stupid batting.
Clearly, if I were the manager for Cleveland, I would go right to the film of that game, to see what they should have done with this OVER Umpire.
But Wedge is an idiot, so we are at the mercy of his frontal lobe in this one...
You can grind it out with Lester, and force him to hit his spots. HE LIKES TO GET CUTE. And that's a mistake in this strike zone. Cleveland just has to remain patient and they will get into hitter's counts. BUT IF HE INDUCES CLEVELAND INTO SWINGING, then the Red Sox will crush Cleveland today, and it will be another 6-1 game, with a ton of double plays and ground outs.
The wager on the OVER is predicated on the fact that Cleveland will be more patient.
When you handicap a game like this, you have to trust the brain of the manager, and sometimes I really think these guys dont do the math.
I know this:
Carmona will get pummelled today.
I don't really feel as if he can escape this strike zone, and the patient hitting style that goes with the Red Sox. Boston loves an OVER ump. Their team batting approach is based on waiting out the pitcher. They will take a first pitch strike more than almost any team, so a pitcher with control issues (like Carmona) facing a strike zone (Like Gerry's) will see a 1-0 count early and often tonight.
Hitter's counts develop out of this dynamic.
And the Left, Right, Left, Right, Left flops at the top of the order should increase Carmona's erratic behavior. He is VERY weak VS the Left right now, so the small zone and the flip flop of batters will ruin his rhythm (or should). Look for some action from the Boston southpaws.
We would like to see a few left handers sliding into the back of the order, but it should be R,R,Switch, R.
I guess the big question is whether Lester and Carmona can induce the ground ball with a regular frequency in this strike zone?
Carmona lasted only 5 innings in the Jerry Davis Strike Zone last year, and he lucked out with 13 ground balls on over half the batters he faced, so yes, he seemed to get the induced outs he needed, but he got hit pretty hard for 5 innings with 6 hits 5 WALKS and only 2 strikeouts! So he does suffere here!
It seems as if the ball will be in play or we will see walks in this atmosphere. I don't suspect that Boston will chase Carmona all over the zone tonight. They will wait and watch, like they always do.
Let me share something with you:
The last three games for Fausto Carmona against Boston.....51 pitches per inning in the last meeting...31 pitches per inning in the next to last one.....and 25 PPI in the second to last one.
Boston scored 5,12, and 6 runs in those games.
The Final Total for the games: 9, 14, and 19
The Bullpen for Boston is getting used up at a highly dangerous rate, so you might not see a solid grouping tonight. It's VERY clear that both bullpens are NOT optimal tonight.
I can predict 5 innings or less out of Fausto, and then we get that lousy Indian Pen....I can safely say that Boston can exceed 4.5 Runs.
It is far more likely that Boston wins this game.
The UNDER should not be played.
What do you guys think.....
I'll post what I am personally wagering on when I make the play....
that negative attitude day in day out is obviously well recieved lately . That must have been a great lunch you guys had .
Clean sweep Apathy. You faded your way to two losses. Thanks for the winners Kevin.
It worried me come the 8th inning but we got lucky! Ill take it!
Great job Kevin.
UNBELIEVABLE NICE JOB KING.....YOUR EXPLANATION AND THE RESULTS OF THE GAME MAKE IT LOOK LIKE YOU ARE ACTUALLY ONE OF THE PLAYERS IN THE GAME.
GREAT JOB ONCE AGAIN.
nice job, king.
Ahhhhh, the old Kevin would have said something.....
The new Kevin just wants to do what he does without the bashing.
The aim of this Blog was to say that the game should pass 9 runs.....and though I was a little off on Carmona to a certain degree, it was an easy result on the 9.
I hope I helped a few of you.
looks like winners to me
nice little comeback there buddy :)
Perfect Fade System, ten straight losers!
Yeah Money: I totally missed the Drew and Youkilis news. I saw that JD played last night, so I thought he was ok. If I knew Youk and Drew were out, then things would have changed for me........
So far it's pretty dissapointing on the Boston front... :(
Thought this might help:
Drew, Youkilis out of lineup in series finale at Cleveland
by John Beattie, April 29, 2009 � 2:25 pm
A pair of Red Sox will get the night off against Cleveland on Wednesday after experiencing some soreness during Boston�s 9-8 loss to the Indians on a chilly and rainy Tuesday night.
On WEEI Wednesday, manager Terry Francona said that outfielder J.D. Drew and first baseman Kevin Youkilis may have to watch the Sox offense battle Indians righty Fausto Carmona from the bench.
Sure enough, when the lineups were posted this afternoon, both Drew and Youkilis weren�t on it.
�J.D.�s quad got tight as the game progressed last night so we have to keep an eye on him,� said Francona. �[Youkilis] got hit in the exact same spot twice now so he�s feeling it a little bit.�
Drew has missed three games this season with nagging left quadriceps while Youkilis was drilled in the back in the first inning by Cleveland�s starter Anthony Reyes. Drew was absent from the starting lineup on Monday but later pinch hit in the ninth inning of that 3-1 Red Sox win.
�There�s a possibility that both of them won�t (be in the lineup),� he added. �If we need to play [Jonathan] Van Every in right, we will, if we need to play [Jeff] Bailey at first, we can do that. But the way Youk is swinging the bat, especially against Carmona, we�ll give him a chance to come in and see if he can get it loose.�
im on this king
looks good King...I think I'm taking them now too!
I threw a small wager on
Boston -133 at 5 Dimes