Every Girl has her own way of using a dress, and every bettor does the same with a trend.
I submit that EVERY trend has an equal and opposite trend to counter it. We can argue the relative merit of that statement, so I'll throw out a perfect example of what I'm talking about. If you disagree, then feel free to counter my claim:
"Louisville is 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons." YAY! Let's take the Cards!!!!!!
"Louisville is 8-20 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997." YAY! Let's take the Irish!
Which way do we go?
The person that reads the 11-2 ATS information might never see the 8-20 ATS trend because each line was used by separate cappers to peddle their pick. Those two trends will also be separated in the data streams due to the natural segregation of "Hot" and "Cold" indicators. Cappers use trends as window dressing on their plays, as they lend a certain amount of legitimacy to any line of reasoning.
And, Correct me if I'm wrong, but is there a player that was on the Louisville team in 1997 that is playing tonight?
Long Term trends are lipstick on a pig, but if you choose to use them, make sure the trend doesn't extend past the service time of the senior class, and NEVER use a long term trend that bases 80% of it's history on coaches, players, and systems that are no longer active, or (gasp) alive!
This is just a rant. And I will accept any, and all, contrary opinions with open ears.
On soccer, on national teams, you find some very powerful long-long-long-long-long-term trends.
For example, Spain can't win against Italy on the regulation time against Italy for almost 70 years.
Another one, Portugal against Germany only won once...
Against France, usually ends up loosing on the Last 30 years.
Against Italy same thing. However England has lost several matches in the last years, but that trend is more short-term.
Another long-term, but not that long is Portugal winning against Netherlands.
But against Brasil, on Brasil, Portugal loses all the time, same thing usually happens in Spain...
But this is a very specific trend. Usually portuguese clubs/teams fare badly against italian or even german ones...
Some clubs against clubs from certain countries it is almost a certain loss/defeat... :D
Could not agree with you more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Clowns study the stats and trends like they are on some cutting edge information that they and they alone have.
THE BOOKS HAVE THEM TOO!!!!!
If the books want balance betting or EVEN more bets on the losing side of the line. Trends, Stats and Sentiment have got to play into the line.
Common sense says if the trend says one thing the line was push another way.
I like to keep it to the L3 yrs in CBB
Great topic and BLOG here KM.
We also saw that the capper with the short term trend information won the wager!
Outstanding conversation Kev. I especially agree that long-term trends in college sports are far more useless considering the high turnover for coaches and athletes alike.
In my opinion, if you see a tout posting trends that are 30 years old, or trends that say "So and so is 31-12 on Mondays", AND THAT'S ALL THEY POST IN THEIR ANALYSIS, then I would ignore the write-up.
One of the trends that I posted in the write-up was written by a well respected capper, and the other was not.
This is the one from the Great Capper:
"Louisville is 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons."
The other one....not so much.
Money Market: I have seen a Louisvile cheerleaders that looked like pigs with lipstick! Yikes!
Are you saying a pig with lipstick played on the 1997 Louisville team?
Yeah they are useful and meaningless at the same time. I think the reason a lot of us look at trends and frown is due to the overuse by some "professionals". Some guys use trends to their advantage very well and do quite well in the business. I think you put it best with the "window dressing". I see a lot of this. I could pick any side of any game and throw trends at you to make it pretty. It is too easy to fluff up a pick and make it look like you know what you are talking about with trends.
I like trends, but also know which ones im looking for and I NEVER bas a pick solely on a trend. Technical handicapping is only 33% of the game. Some trends are meaningless, especially day of the week trends in baseball. There are certain long term trends that will still work consistently. You just have to know how to look for them and use them.
Yeah. I think we've come to a nice middle ground.
Trends that are built on continuity are VERY useful.
Some trends are meaningless and some have legit value & merit....but I agree a trend with completely different rosters & coaches....does not do a whole lot for me personally........
As always, insightful and intelligent info...
Boss makes a good point, as "coaching trends" are certainly powerful, and not conflicting, so yes, I may be in error about EVERY trend being "reciprocated".
Ray: You are correct.
Very good point!
Also: Short term trends are not what I'm attacking, and, in fact, there are a few short term indicators that support the Cards being in a weak spot tonight as far as energy. (I think I wasn't too clear there. :)
Deliveryman: totally agree.