You revert to MAX PROTECT when you're weak!
I like to build my NFL wagers from the inside-out.
The BASE-UNITS for any team, are the respective lines. If you see a weakness in either line, then you can extrapolate outward. This reasoning follows a VIRAL assumption. If the head is infected, then the body will suffer.
In this case, Jacksonville has an injury-riddled offensive line, and the replacement players are not TRUE NFL caliber starters. Just look at the numbers:
*Jacksonville rushes for only 110 yards per game on average.
*The Jags have been sacked 38 times this year.
We have only one conclusion to draw from the high sack totals. Garrard is VERY mobile, so he should mitigate some of the weak blocking with his skills as a runner. BUT WHEN A QB, LIKE GARRARD, IS FLASHING A HIGH SACK TOTAL, THEN THE OFFENSIVE LINE IS NOT READING THE DEFENSE PROPERLY!
When the sack totals go up, the Tight Ends join the line.
This grouping is called a "Max Protect".
Maximum Protection schemes were once employed for various situational realities, but now, it's increasingly finding a home in the desperate world of wounded teams.
And this is the reality that Jacksonville is facing.
The Offensive line is filled with 2nd and 3rd stringers, and they are slow, and are not particularly good at picking up blitzes. Normally, a good running QB, like Garrard, can buy time for his line or recognize the blitz, and dump to the check-down.
The problem here is that the "check-down receivers" are also second string players! So you have "slow feet" all over the place. Jones, Wrightster, and Porter are all missing, and the remaining wide-outs are INTERMEDIATE RECIEVERS, so The Colts, and their cover-2 defense, will pinch toward the line, knowing that they can match-up with the receivers (and that weak line).
*Did you know that Jacksonville has completed ONE pass for more than 40 yards this season?
I'm trying to show you the reason why.
If a defense is facing a bad offensive line, and they KNOW that their opponent is not getting the time to complete the big play, then they jump the intermediate routes and let the safeties pick up the trash on the double-move. The reasoning here is that Garrard doesn't have the time, or confidence to stand in the pocket, so the ODDS of seeing a 40 yard pass attempt will be rare. It will be so rare that you can jump the "check-downs". Ultimately, YAC yardage (yards after the catch) dissapears and, believe it or not, Garrard hesitates, and waits a little to long to pull out his biggest weapon: His legs!
The simplest way to view this Jaguar Offense is to think of it as a beast with a "flesh eating virus". The disease quickly spreads from the offensive line to the receivers in a flash, and those outer appendages suffer quickly, and fall away.
Also: When you have a bad line, you draw in the TE's, and that eliminates their effectiveness in the "seam", and this further cripples Garrard on his short-reads. If the line isn't getting it done, then the tight ends MUST block. This is an attempt to compensate for slow moving tackles, but it's also used in an attempt to plug holes where the blitz is most likely to seek. If the TE is force to "chip" his man at the line, then that deep "seam" route loses it's element of surprize.
If you move to MAX PROTECT on a large number of your plays, then it's like waving a flag of surrender. You're essentially freeing up a line backer and a safety, and giving them an easy look at your intentions.
Jacksonville has gone to MAX PROTECT.
You're also telling the opposing defense that you will try to beat them with the run, or with your wide receivers. I'm here to tell you that Jacksonville DOES NOT have the speed and talent, in any reasonable combination, to beat this cover-2 defense.
Go get this wager......
The Indianapolis Colts -6 (-110) at BookMaker
Yes, we did get lucky RAY. But luck is the residue of HARD WORK!
Ths is a big weekend. We need to sweep to take #1 at The Sports Monitor.
not quite an easy winner but we will take it. Good Job tonight!
No props for me Chad. KISS, brother! No frills anymore.
And yes! The data is in!!!! WE should be hoops worthy soon...nailed Tennessee the other day on an opinion play.
Kev, BetUS has only become good for taking dogs, IMO. Heavily inflated numbers. And Reggie Wayne just scored a 41 yarder...hopefully you stayed away or bet small. And I'm still waiting to see some of the King Maker CBB plays...nothing but money last year. Good luck buddy
Funny how BetUS has tagged me with -7...LOL
Boy, diversification is a blessing... ;)
Not surprized at all, M........Catching 5.5 is great.
Indy at -5.5 Bookmaker
And that could come into play, but the box is getting more and more populated as the weakness of that O-line (and the loss of 3 recievers) becomes apparrent.
The thought was considered, and it's possible, but it's hard to expect a 40 yarder if they AVERAGE 110 per game rushing, right?
King, I saw you question the longest play from scrimmage, but don't forget about the speed and breaking tackles ability that MJD brings.
Waiting for HAVDAWG selections to come out. Seem late today but that could be me.
Thanks Player, and Samoan:
Samoan: I hear ya.
Lot's of professionals think that Indy can't cover that line on the road. I think they haven't covered anything above 4 (or something like that) all season.
Who knows, brother. I have a feeling that this could be an easy win for us tonight. JMHO
Great info as always TKM..I'm glad to see u on the colts..I'm on them too, but the forum seems to like Jax tonight. I think colts roll big.
Great read...Thanks Kevin..........
Another thing to consider: What will the longest play from scrimmage be? WE know that JAX is not likely to go over 40, can their banged-up secondary hold Indy below the number?