Stay Focussed King!
RUSH DOMINANCE PLAYS
Tha Arizona Cardinals -3 (-110) WINNER! (2-Units)
The Tennessee Titans -3 (-110) WINNER! (2-Units)
Late Total Play
Philly/Cincy OVER 40.5 (-120) LOSS (1-Unit)
2-1 day (+2.80 Units)
Right now we are trying to make a strong move in the NFL, and I have an intense desire to move from #12 among "monitored services" to a better ranking. There's a tight grouping of handicappers in the 63% and 70% range, and the dropoff with a failure this weekend could be maddening, so I'm extremely hopeful that our system holds up.
We are sitting at just under 64% at "the monitor" and 63% over here at Pregame in the NFL and we have a nice 5-1(+4.80 Units) record with the "Rush Dominance" Screens.
I guess I'm writing this to say that I'm both pumped and cautious this week, so hopefully we get our best effort tomorrow.
Rush Dominance Watch List (in no particular order):
1. Philadelphia is presenting a decent number at -9, and they have all the makings of a classic "Rush Dominance" play.
Right off the bat we have a 1-back set facing a 4-3 defense that is reeling. The Cincy defense has a serious lack of ability in terms of penetration, and with only 9 sacks, and a 50% 3rd down allowance rate this squad is NOT CAPABLE of covering the various weapons that Philly will offer. In terms of matchups, the Bengals have to account for the 1-Back, and then a slew of options at, or around the line of scrimmage.
Cincy wants to blitz, but how do you steal the men from coverage if you can't sack the QB? Someone will pop open on a check-down. Frankly speaking, the Bengals are a "damned if they do", and "damned if they don't" blitz.
Compunding this weakness is the absence 2 DE's, a LB, and having a safety and another LB that are probable, but nursing injuries. You can't run away from the fact that Philly is one of the top offenses in the NFL facing one of the worst defenses in the league.
This is a simple function of having one team (Philly) that is facing a defense that it was created to dominate (Cincy). The pass-first mentality meets one of the worst pass defense in football. No pass rush. No stability in the second and third levels, and a potential lack of depth, should lead the Eagles into a relaxing day of shooting goldfish in a pond...........................
Problems with Philly: The Bengals are a desperate bunch and they've had 2 weeks to get ready for both the Philly defense and offense. My big worry here is that the Bengals may go back to that "dink and dunk" game that kept them alive in a few matchups.
2. Ravens: There is very little reason to get excited over the Giants at -7.5 (BetUS) when, in fact, the screens are suggesting that the Ravens can give New York all they can handle.
This game is more evenly matched than the line suggests. The giants are a very strong club. They play defense and run the ball, so it's like one "Rush Dominance" monster meeting another. I ALSO WONDER IF THE RAVENS WILL BE FORCED TO GO VANILLA (on defense) AGAINST THE BEST RUNNING GAME IN THE NFL. I fear this because Baltimore wants to bump the recievers at the line of scrimmage (and run 3-deep coverage schemes), but guys like Plax Burress can break a cornerback over their knee in a technical bump and run. So I suspect that the corners for the Ravens will rock-back and wait on Burress to screw up his routes like he always does.
Either way, this is going to be a bloodbath and both of these teams are so evenly matched that I find it remarkable to see that the line is up to +7.5 at BetUS!
Baltimore has discovered their rhythm on offense, and the odds-makers and the public have yet to catch on. Mason's injury complicates things, but this is not the same Ravens offense that started the year. Quarterback play is probably the difference here, but Flacco isn't making a ton of mistakes, and Eli may not fare too well on Sunday. In fact, if we have to speak about Eli Manning, just remember that he tends to look like a deer in the headlights against the top level defenses, and I suspect he will offer the Ravens a few freebies before the day is over.
Baltimore CAN push Manning out of the pocket, and I think they will be sitting on routes, so the turnover differential may go in Baltimore's favor. It seems to me that the Ravens might complicate Manning's efficiency by getting away from the press, and settling into the zone, and 2-deep coverage schemes.....................
Problems with Baltimore: If Baltimore cannot run the ball, then the advanced coverage schemes orchestrated by Spagnuolo (DC-Giants) WILL disrupt Flacco. There's no doubt about it. The Ravens can't keep their defense on the field with a poor showing in the running game.
3. As usual, the Titans are falling under serious consideration as a Rush Dominance play. They certainly merit the approval of the early screens.
Get ready for the "fade Tennessee" crowd. I wonder if a large number of people are automatically going against the road favorite that's undefeated? They have to lose sooner or later right?
The numbers don't support a fade on Tennessee.
Defense travels. Especially a defense that holds opposing QB's to a dismal 60.49 Passer rating. And forget about the passing numbers....what about holding opponents to an average of 90 yards rushing per game?
Like Baltimore, Tennessee is adapting to their TE, and the passing numbers are now swelling as a result. When a defense, like Tennessee, is backed by an offense that has only allowed 5 sacks all season, and passed for almost 300 yards last week against the Bears, then you have a strong team, and one that may be heavily underrated at the window..................
Problems with Tennessee: It's a road game; they are the favorites, and It's the NFL. Jacksonville piled on SEVEN SACKS last week VS Detroit, and the defense may be finding its legs. Jones-Drew is beginning to look like the guy that shredded defenses in his debut season. I also wonder if Greg Williams will throw the kitchen sink at Kerry Collins. Tennessee is a team that can decifer a defense with their own movement, but Williams may pressure Collins more than past opponents. So are we fearing a 13-10 final like the Titans had in the Baltimore game?
4. The Redskins have entered the realm of Rush Dominance, even with their weakness at the RB position.
Dallas is the #12 Offense and the #12 Defense, and we certainly have to respect the potential re-emergence of Romo, but all we have to do is look backward a few weeks to see what Washington can do to this Dallas team. It was a systematic erasure of the Dallas running game that led Washington to victory.
Do you remember that Romo threw the ball 47 times and that Marion Barber ran the ball only 8 times? Marion was the leading rusher, and T.O. Was #2 with 2 carries!
What does that tell us about Sundays game?
It tells me that a bum pinkie finger will get a ton of work, and if it doesn't, then how successful is that power running game going to be? 8 carries? Either way, it's hard to envision a potent Dallas attack tomorrow.
I know all games shouldn't be treated the same, but we are confirming a gameplan that Garrett thought he could impose on Washington. He wanted to pass the ball. Unfortunately, he passed for an average of 6.4 yards per attempt.
This is a Washington defense that can limit a passer to UNDERNEATH routes, and if Dallas doesn't find running room against the #4 defense in the NFL, then where will Dallas find itself on Sunday?
One way or another we could see an UNDER brewing here, but I think we have a hidden gem in Washington........................
Problems with Washington: Even though they made an extra effort to roll coverage on T.O, and actually gameplanned to shut down the passing game, the Cowboys still racked up a ton of passing yards. Are they going to get away from run stuffing in order to stop the Cowboy air attack?
5. Arizona seems to be lining up as a Rush Dom play, even with the potential threats of Seattle's apparently revitalized team.
Poor Seattle: Kerney is out, the pass rush is still at it's weakest point this season, the safeties are slow, and the corners are not consistant. When a team faces Warner, they want to blitz him, get in his face, and try to disrupt his timing, but Warner has turned into the best "hot-read QB" in the league, and the guys that he "checks-down to are some of the best YAC recievers in the NFL. Poor Seattle.
You have 3rd best offense in the NFL facing one of the worst defenses in the league. The math should be pretty simple here, right?
Problems with Arizona: We talk about penalties in our handicapping, and this Cardinal team is the king of shooting themselves int he foot. Seattle's poor defense mitigates some of our concern with the hankies, but it's hard to ignore their tendency to give away yardage. Playing at Seattle will NOT help the Cards in this matter. Hasselbeck may provide trouble for Arizona's reckless, but talented secondary. Their zones are fairly easy to crack, so Matt's arrival may confound the Zona defense and send the game into "shootout mode".
6. Carolina is sitting on a huge line, but there is reason to believe that they can tow that bloated number.
Carolina tends to cover big numbers this season, so the high price is not unjustified. If people are waiting to see Culpepper rise from the ashes, then it wont be this week. It's been years since Daunte Culpepper has sniffed more than 6 or 7 yards per pass attempt, and I don't expect it to change any time soon. I think the line is justified.
And consider this: Jacksonville ran all over this Detroit defense. And Carolina has the tools to inflict even more damage with Williams and Stewart. It could get ugly in the second half.
Problems with Carolina: Oakland made them look bad! And how many teams cover those big spreads when their primary mode of travel is the running game?
7. Pittsburgh is once again in the Rush Dominance discussion. (More to follow in this game)
There's a lot to write, this blog will unfold over the duration of the day.....
I have posted my two strongest Rush Dominance plays over at Pregame Pros, and they come from the qualifiers above.
I hope to post a "Rush Dom" total in this blog as the day progresses.
CLICK HERE FOR THE KM'S 4-UNIT "RUSH DOMINANCE" PACKAGE
The King Maker's NFL Record 19-11 (+6.95)
Added Late Play:
Philadelphia/Cincinnatti OVER 40.5 (-120) at BetUS
I already highlighted the mismatch between the Philly offensive set and the Bengals defense, and I truly believe that Philly will approach 31 points with no problem. It's not a stretch for me to assume that a defense allowing a 50% 3rd down conversion rate will continue to bleed points all over the field.
What is Donovan going to do against a non-existant pass rush? You can answer that.
It should be a huge blowout, but I suspect you might see a little life from the Bengal Offense. Maybe we see an interesting game here.
I think we have a great shot!
Good job Kev, looking forward to your CBB picks this year
Nice job Kevin.
We may have something Tommy. I hope it continues to do well! Nice hit on SD for you!!!!!!!
Looks like you have a very profitable system going King. Keep them coming.
Where are we going to go on this Washington game?
Any suggestions...I want a little action....I see Wash +3
Sorry for showing up late Joe. Here's the plays:
I took food off our table with that damn total, but we nailed our Rush Dominance Plays to go 7-1 on the Dom.
RUSH DOMINANCE PLAYS
Late Total Play
We moved to 19-11 in the NFL (+6.95 Units)
We moved to 7-1 on Rush Dom Plays (+7.60)
I think we may have a system boys!!!!!!!!!!
Damn, K. That total doesn't look good right now.
McNabb looks terrible again today...slow start after slow start..
Great article, KM. I'm curious to see what your plays are today. Maybe they match up with mine. Could you post them after the games start or at least after the 2nd half starts?
Guys: Go Over in the Philadelphia game, and shave the hook off the 41, ok? Philly may get there on their own today.....
Goodluck today King$$$$$
Guys: I love two totals today, but they have their own risks attached to them...Let me bash my brains for a few more minutes and then we may pull the trigger on a Total.........
The system didn't take my initial write-ups on those 2-Unit plays, so I lost a ton of info, and didn't realize it until this morning. I don't know if I made the error in loading the analysis or the system booted me, but everything works fine now.
The plays were posted yesterday (on time and intact), it was just the analysis that was missing. Sorry for the lack of analysis. It won't happen again. Smaller writeups are posted over there.
A special level of detail here!