The King Maker Prospectus for NCAA Hoops
If you lost your shirt last year, then get ready to rip the jacket off the "Books" to warm yourself during the winter. We should have a complete edge on the "house" as soon as we get a peek at the NEW Tempo arrangements of most of these teams, and when we do, our accounts should reflect our advantage.
Some things you should know about the King Maker Approach.
Many of the people that have followed me through the years know that my research depends HEAVILY on 4 things:
1. Allignment Mismatches.
2. Tempo Screens.
3. Zone Read Analysis
4. Satistical differential imbalances.
Two of the four examples are "data dependant", and do not become fully available until after Christmas. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON I RELY ON MY ALLIGNMENT MISMATCH SCREENS, AND MY ZONE READ ANALYSIS. This is an incomplete approach, but it yielded a dominant 12-5 Run to start the season.
The tricky part for my system is the TRANSITION into the full system. At this point I infuse the available stats and data, and since the sample is still small, the results can be troublesome. At this point of the season last year I suffered a 50% run that seemed to last 4 weeks. THIS POOR RUN WAS PARTLY DUE TO OVERCONFIDENCE AND PARTLY DUE TO A MISPLACED TRUST IN THE SMALL DATA SAMPLE.
Then we hit our groove and went on an AMAZING run as we rushed through the last 2.5 months of the season at, or around 70%. I'm not sure if there were any systems out there that did better.
I'm not interested in bragging about our success, but I DO WANT YOU TO BE AWARE OF HOW TO PLAY MY HOOPS SYSTEM:
1. We can take advantage of the books failures in the early weeks of the season (They make a ton of mistakes early), so there is stronger value in the early going.
2. If you see a sudden struggle in December, then immediately pull back your wagers and pay close attention to how near or far the analysis is from the actual outcome of the games.
3. When we hit mid-January, and if you like where I'm going with my work, then you should begin to elevate your Units. As you might see with the NFL (#12 at THE SPORTS MONITOR), I am better as the season progresses. Basketball is no different.
We ended up 129-74-1 (64%) in College hoops last season. We started strong, struggled in December and part of January, them dominated the rest of the season. Hitting above 71% for over 60 days.
Here are two examples of my analysis:
Texas/Stanford OVER 133.5 (-120) BetUS
Call me square, but I have my reasons.......
Line might drop for you.....
We have a nice combination with Texas that fully supports the way Stanford wants to score points. Normally Texas can be considered a better than average FG defense. They are really pretty damn good (So is Stanford), but when you look at the tendencies of both of these teams you can see a game developing within the game. A sort of defiance of expectation.
For instance: Stanford is a really good interior defense, but they are spotty on the ARC when defending people. Two perimeter players for Marquette scored 44 points on Stanford in the last game! So, I suppose you can guess that Abrams, Augustine, Atchley, James, and Mason (All around 40% from the ARC) are going to get a few good looks tonight. Keep that in mind: 44 points from two Marquette players!
Also keep in mind that Stanford has been burning their guards in the tournaments. Fatigue, no matter how long the rest, will be a factor at some point in this game. It's not an anomoly that they coughed up so many points in the last game.
But the glorious thing here is that the public loves Texas, and they are in deep shit with their reasoning. There is every indication that Stanford is facing a Texas team that has a severe problem on the defensive boards. They tend to give the bigger teams a bunch of second looks! Against Stanford, that will kill you!
In fact, Texas doesn't like to turn people over as well! They seem to bother the shot, not the dribble! This is a wonderful habit that Stanford will exploit, because they bypass the ARC and head for the brothers over 67% of the time anyway.
Texas is not inclined to play stiff defense on the dribble so the process of delivering in the feeder lanes will be easier on the Stanford Guards. We love clear "distribution patterns" for an OVER!
To make it simple: Texas doesn't Steal, and Texas doesn't stop people from getting offensive rebounds. We know that we are in a good place with Stanford's height and talent in the paint. I firmly believe Stanford can hit 70 points tonight.
I also think that there will be plenty of action in the paint, and hopefully more fouls.And the rise of a few bench options, for Texas, will certainly boost their chances for a few more offensive boards when the brothers are out.
I have a clear progression to the hoop for Stanford. There is VERY little blocking them from performing to their average or above. The systems, and tendencies that are exibited by Texas, on defense, are the systems that Stanford can work against.
The final helper to our over, in terms of Stanford, is their nice Assist-to-turnover ratio (ATR). They don't cough it up, and they are VERY good with distribution.
Will Texas Score 70?
We need that lame perimeter defense for Stanford to perform badly again, but that's about it.
This is a telling stat: 4.4 Steals Per Game
Stanford, like Texas, is not interested in attacking the dribble. They have one of the lowest Steals rates that I've seen from a major program. This re-affirms the idea that Stanford doesn't like to expend energy on poking at the ball. Instead, they try to "stay with" their faster, and more talented opponents. Texas can "get free" in this type of guard.
Guys Turnovers kill an OVER. They should call them "TurnUNDERS". WE HAVE TWO TEAMS THAT DONT LIKE TO STEAL!!!!! And two teams that don't turn it over! Texas is #1!!!!!!!!
We love the fact that Stan wont steal. Texas is the best in the world at protecting the ball!
As far as offensive efficinecy: Texas is #3 behind Kansas and North Carolina. You don't get that number by being sloppy. This is a team that can move the ball and keep control!
And this brings me to my biggest point: Texas must sense the issues involved in getting stuck in a half-court offense against this Stanford defense. If they get bogged down in a protracted half court war, Texas will not cover. Texas will LOSE.
They will run the ball just enough for us to go over!
Remember: This is a Texas team that forced Wisconsin to shoot the ball 64 Times! They raised the tempo on THAT team, and they can do it to Stanford. I think this is where we get into the 70's.
Both of these offenses can get past both defenses. WE have a shot at catching a nice one here.
This was an easy cover.
And here is our WINNER from the Championship Game:
Kansas +2.5 -115 at BoDog
71% of the public seem to be on Memphis at Noon Eastern. Maybe you can get a natural +2.5, or maybe +3. The books may be glad to take Memphis money all day long.
I waited as long as I could to try to catch the best line, but it may not go much farther from here (Who knows?). I think a great deal of square money has poured into the Memphis line, because there isn't a great deal of information that supports Memphis in this match-up.
My reasoning in backing Kansas is two-fold:
#1: I like the fact that Kansas can match-up in transition with Memphis. The fact that Kansas will avoid any zone defense arrangements really sets us up nicely for a defense of the "Dribble Drive Motion" offense of Memphis.
You beat that offense by playing aggressive man-to-man defense, and you clog the middle of the zone with talented BIG men.
First and Foremost: Memphis doesn't match up well with the Kansas defense. They are not going to be able to account for the size (and depth in size), while dealing with aggressive guards on the perimeter. It's hard to explain, but KU can be "everywhere" when they front the vaunted Memphis offense.
Memphis is #162 in ARC Offense.
Kansas: #12 in ARC offense.
For that Matter: Kansas is the #2 FG% Offense.
But I digress:
Kansas is the #2 Efficiency Defense in the Nation! They built that rating on the backs of Big 12 opponents, not sorry ass C-USA teams. I know Memphis gets all the credit for amazing defense, but they aren't as good as KU. Memphis can be limited in the face of this powerful defense (Like unstoppable Carolina). When focussed, this Kansas team is hardly beatable.
The reason I like KU is that they possess the size and speed in the frontcourt to really fluster the Memphis bigs. The main goal of the "Dribble Drive Motion" offense is to open up the paint, and send one of four guards to the hoop, they can attack the hoop, and when the middle gets clogged, they try to throw back out to the perimeter, or hit Dozier or Taggert with a back-door. They destroy 2-3 zones with this attack (See Memphis State). But they struggle with aggressive man-to-man defenses (See Tennessee).
Kansas is leagues above Tennessee in defense. They also possess the tempo to run hard with Memphis.
But my #2 reason for liking KU is that Memphis will "dribble-drive", and get forced to dish back out to another perimter player, due to the KU strength inside. This will bring us back to that lousy ranking from the ARC for Memphis.
Yup. I said it again.
KU's defense should force Memphis to rely on the ARC more than they usually do.
We may be able to force Memphis toward their weakness. If you make them one-dimentional, then they lose their rhythm, and when Memphis loses their rhythm, they mess up! And boys and girls, they tend to miss free throws, miss shots, and foul when they lose rhythm..
Memphis, like any Calipari team, is a creature of Rhythm. You get them out of Rhythm, and you begin to expose their weaknesses.
Force them to shoot from the ARC!
They will generally miss 18 ARC attempts on AVERAGE per game. You can see that they may be forced to take more than their 27 attempt average tonight. Memphis will not get those transition points that they like to get, due to KU's athleticism, they won't drive successfully, due to KU's size and depth in the paint, and they will try to catch the low percentage shots from the ARC in an attempt to catch up, and make up for their weakness inside.
*Did you see what Kansas did to transition rich Carolina?
*Did you see any second chance baskets from Carolina?
It's the same tonight, folks!
Kansas will take the paint away from Memphis.
Percentage wise: KU should kill Memphis.
I will try to give more analysis as the day passes, but the fact of the matter is that we have two great teams playing tonight. They are fairly similar in the statistical analysis, but KU stands out.
I completely have Kansas as the favorite in this game.
If you have an interest in looking at my full body of work in Basketball, then please go to the CBB forum. I posted nearly all of my analysis, PAID OR FREE, for public viewing in the CBB forum. So you can go back and see what we played and how we played it. I was VERY VISIBLE last season, and should remain fairly visible this year as well. I'm a professional handicapper that does not mind showing you my work, so please don't be shy about asking any questions this season.
I hope we can complete another dominant season, and GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE IN THE COMING SEASON!
Thanks BIG B! And RAY, JEFF, and ALTHAM. If we stick to the basics, and keep from getting cocky or finesse-ridden, then we should be able to navigate through the season really well.
The one thing I wanted to do with this introduction is to find a way to be more transparent. I hope this sort of prospectus is helpful. Any suggestions are welcome.
FYI: I didn't post the Units WON, because, to be honest with you, I never gave much weight to "units". everybody bets what they want out there, and my opinion on units was not favorable.
This year we will track Units (as we do in football), since I now understand that it's a great way to inform the base on what the record really means.
Therefore, I'm sorry I don't have UNITS WON posted in this Blog.
always providing great info, thanks KM
Hopefully this season will bring the same success as last season, i am looking forward to it Kevin
Nice to see you back on College Hoops King. You absolutely slammed the books last year. GL and I will definatly be getting your plays.
Best of luck to you this college season...looking forward to another 70% run!
Thanks Jimmy, and Vaughn!
Vaughn, I was reviewing some of our analysis from last season and saw you in many of those threads, always positive, even on the down days. Thanks for that!
Always look forward to your calls, Winner!
G.L. TO THE KING