It appears that many people love a certain home dog. They cite the unstoppable offense, the seriously impressive pass protection, and a surprizingly good defense. Their love is not misplaced. And they definitely have a case for wagering on the home dog, but we need to clear the air about the doggie, before we drink the juice and fall head over heels for a hound that may actually be a paper tiger in disguise!
Our paper tiger is 5th in the nation in total penalties.
And their schedule strength is #91, which is the worst in their respective conference.
The Schedule is where we have to look when we're flushing out a paper tiger, so we go to the numbers, to see where he's eaten, have his meals been far too easy to track down?
Our paper Tiger built the #2 Offense in the land against the following defenses:
1. Eastern Washington: (Big Sky team that is 2-2 in their pee-wee conference)
2. Nevada: #96 Defense allowing 328 yards per game!
3. SMU: The worst defense in the nation (#120). Allowing 60% 3rd down conversions!
4. Massachusetts?????? No comment!
5. Kansas State: The #110 defense in America!
6. Nebraska: #66 defense in the land and the best defense they faced. (Went to Overtime)
7. Texas A&M: The #104 defense in the land. A 56% 3rd down allowance!!!!!
8. Kansas: The #89 defense? Allowing almost 300 yards per game passing to everyone!
Tell me what you see here? Our paper tiger is penalized more than everyone in its conference, and penalized more than all but 4 of the teams in this great nation, and they mumbled and bumbled along that clumsy path against some of the worst defenses in the world.
HAVE YOU EVER SEEN A MORE SHODDY SET OF DEFENSES? What a perfect storm! It appears that you could complete a pass on good intentions against that schedule?
Look at the Turnover margins for some of these teams that the paper tiger played!
SMU #99 in turnover margin!
Kansas State #79 in Tunrovers coughed up!
Nevada tied with the Huskers at #96!!!!!
Texas A&M is #73 in turnovers.
What does that tell you? Our paper tiger faced the worst defenses and also faced the worst teams in turnover ratio!
No wonder the paper Tiger is soo impressive in scoring and on defense. The other team handed them the ball!
There are many more reasons behind the following wager, but I think we can take a chance on.....
The Texas Longhorns -3 (-125) at Bookmaker
Louisville -13 (-110) at BetUS
Georgia Tech -2 (-110) at BetUS
NCAA Football Record: 22-20 (+2.96 Units)
"First half wasn't even close - they ran a stat that Texas Tech had almost 200 more yards at one point."
We tend to watch the entire game when we have a wager like Texas -3. If you'll remember, Texas was down 26-29 with 11:00 remaining in the game. At that point, with Tech defenders reeling, it was certainly a close game. And Tech had 200 more total yards in the game, but I don't really get your point.
Perhaps you'll remember that Texas was VERY much in the game. As far as the Total perception of the contest (for 4 quarters) a team, like Tech, cannot possibly dominate a game if they are losing with less than 20 seconds to go?
If the game was capped for the first half, I would understand your post better, I suppose.........Good to hear from you after such along absence in my threads, perhaps we'll get on the same page as time passes.
Good Luck to you!
GF? I said I thought we had a chance to cover (at -3), and that was DEFINITELY in reach. The guys that had +6 or +5 had less to worry about, but Tech led by three with plenty of time remaining, so my statement wasn't misplaced. A Texas TD would have given us a potential 4 point lead at one stage of the 4th QTR. The guys that caught the great lines at the start of the week were not worried, but remember. We were playing off 3 points, not 6 or 5.5, or 5. The spread was in doubt for those of us that had 3, so I don't get the "HUH?"
It was a GREAT call by Tech backers, and they did dominate the first half, and were unstoppable on that last minute drive, but the spread was in question for those that had 3 points and 3.5 points. It was definitely in question when Tech led by only 3 points.
You guys did a GREAT job! There was only about 5 minutes where I felt like we could cover on the -3. The rest of the game was all Tech. A bad call for me, but I had a shot to cover in the 4th.
i lost my ass right along w/ u kevin, after Louisville lost the 3-teamer for me, i pulled for Tech to pull the upset.
First half wasn't even close - they ran a stat that Texas Tech had almost 200 more yards at one point
HUH?? Texas Tech DOMINATED this game, and Texas just about stole the GAME< but the SPREAD was NEVER in doubt from the get go.
1-2 for the day. Terrible!
Congrats to the Tech backers. What a crazy game.
I felt like we had a chance to cover, even in the late stages of the game, but a couple of dropped interceptions opened a few doors.
Sorry for the 1-2 day.
A side note: I am not completely discounting the power of Texas Tech, nor do I like backing the Road favorite in this game, and I do think this game will be a thriller, but in terms of basing a real number on the accomplishments of TT, and especially their defense (which may have benefitted from a short field on many occasions), there is no real way to assess their relative power.....especially in the face of the facts posted above.
I'm willing to be silenced on this matter if Tech blows up this Longhorn team, but I think I can squeak by in this wager based on the exhuberance of all the Tech Hype. Buying to 3 points is a must in this wager. Keeping it under 4 is very important.