It appears that many people love a certain home dog. They cite the unstoppable offense, the seriously impressive pass protection, and a surprizingly good defense. Their love is not misplaced. And they definitely have a case for wagering on the home dog, but we need to clear the air about the doggie, before we drink the juice and fall head over heels for a hound that may actually be a paper tiger in disguise!
Our paper tiger is 5th in the nation in total penalties.
And their schedule strength is #91, which is the worst in their respective conference.
The Schedule is where we have to look when we're flushing out a paper tiger, so we go to the numbers, to see where he's eaten, have his meals been far too easy to track down?
Our paper Tiger built the #2 Offense in the land against the following defenses:
1. Eastern Washington: (Big Sky team that is 2-2 in their pee-wee conference)
2. Nevada: #96 Defense allowing 328 yards per game!
3. SMU: The worst defense in the nation (#120). Allowing 60% 3rd down conversions!
4. Massachusetts?????? No comment!
5. Kansas State: The #110 defense in America!
6. Nebraska: #66 defense in the land and the best defense they faced. (Went to Overtime)
7. Texas A&M: The #104 defense in the land. A 56% 3rd down allowance!!!!!
8. Kansas: The #89 defense? Allowing almost 300 yards per game passing to everyone!
Tell me what you see here? Our paper tiger is penalized more than everyone in its conference, and penalized more than all but 4 of the teams in this great nation, and they mumbled and bumbled along that clumsy path against some of the worst defenses in the world.
HAVE YOU EVER SEEN A MORE SHODDY SET OF DEFENSES? What a perfect storm! It appears that you could complete a pass on good intentions against that schedule?
Look at the Turnover margins for some of these teams that the paper tiger played!
SMU #99 in turnover margin!
Kansas State #79 in Tunrovers coughed up!
Nebraska #96!!!!!!
Nevada tied with the Huskers at #96!!!!!
Texas A&M is #73 in turnovers.
What does that tell you? Our paper tiger faced the worst defenses and also faced the worst teams in turnover ratio!
No wonder the paper Tiger is soo impressive in scoring and on defense. The other team handed them the ball!
There are many more reasons behind the following wager, but I think we can take a chance on.....
The Texas Longhorns -3 (-125) at Bookmaker
1-Unit
Play #2:
Louisville -13 (-110) at BetUS
1-Unit
Georgia Tech -2 (-110) at BetUS
1-Unit
NCAA Football Record: 22-20 (+2.96 Units)