If you like the OVER in the Ohio Game Tonight.....keep your shirt on!
We have SEVERAL failures in tempo.
If you follow the King Maker Totals in Basketball, then you know that we look for "clear pathways to the hoop". In essence, I want my offense to have the fewest obstructions to the goal.
You can follow the same thought process in football, so here are the things you need to know about the tempo of tonights game between Ohio and Buffalo:
#1. Ohio is tied for #17 in the Nation in total penalties. And this leads to #68 ranking in total average 1st down totals per game.
#2. Sacks: Both Buffalo and Ohio have each been sacked 19 times this year. This is a double whammy for Ohio, because they average almost 10 yards per penalty.
#3 Ohio is -5 in TURNOVER MARGIN. So it appears that Ohio is a team that can shoot your over in the foot in three ways:
A. They tend to get sacked.
B. They tend to commit a ton of penalties.
C. They turn the ball over more than they should.
#4 Ohio possesses the #50 defense in the Nation, and they appear to have a strong pass coverage unit. They've piled on 13 sacks this season, so the pass allignment seems to be fairly aggressive. This doesn't bode well for a Buffalo team that needs to pass the ball, but has been sacked 19 times this season. Buffalo has only averaged 3.29 yards per carry with the 55th ranked Schedule.
#5 Ohio has the #77 ranked schedule, but they've only managed to score an average of 22 points, per game, against that level of opponent. It should be a concern, but the good news is that Buffalo's defense allows 50% third down conversions; has only committed 6 sacks; and allows 28 points per game, so maybe ohio has a chance to score more than 22, but Buffalo has had a tougher schedule (#55) so the jury is out on this.
Here's the reality of the situation. The line is perfectly placed!
The Total is sitting around 50.
Ohio scores an average of 22 points per game.
Buffalo scores an average of 27 points per game.
Factor in the penalties, the sacks, and the turnovers, then place a small level of significance to the fact that Ohio may be able to slow the Buffalo passing game, and you HAVE A TOTAL THAT IS PERFECTLY PLACED BY THE ODDSMAKERS.
Rule #1: Run away from the perfect line. They have us here. There is no reason for exhuberance on either side of the total in this game!
Just a small heads up!
The total landed right about where the oddsmakers wanted it (51)....not a bad job by the market makers!
Have a good night guys!
Teasers are nice for opinion plays, and I like to play them every once and a while, but most bookies don't allow teasers so it's a waste for a lot of people. I guess I'd post more if it was available to all of the guys and gals.
Good Luck to you!
Peeps posting teasers all over the board these days. NICE.......GL with the play.
Not even through the first quarter and Ohio has coughed the ball up twice, and had a 10 yard penalty........you'd think Solich would coach these kids up, but I wonder.....
I decided to play a teaser with Buffalo +8.5 and Houston -1/2 just for a little action tonight. (opinion)
Houston should cover the number, but the hook on the 7 drives me nuts, and I also believe the Ohio game is a toss up at the worst, and I suspect that Buffalo will be the better team tonight. Jerking that line up to +8.5 feels right.
FYI, Just an opinion.