The following article is from Stan Sharp as told to (and
posted by) a Pregame.com staff writer. We have convinced Stan to sit
for an occassional interview that we'd convert into an article.
Stan Sharp took the time to discuss some of the Key Line Moves this week as we will call this series "Inside the Steam"
Florida @ LSULSU Opened (+9) Now (+7.5)This move was Wise Guys taking advantage of the uncertain status of Tim Tebow. Offshore sportsbook Cris opened the game at (+11.5). Vegas waited a little longer and opened the Game at (+9). Since then the line has been bet down to (+7.5). Stan feels that this was strictly a position move as Wise Guys in town grabbed the highest number they could with LSU. As we get closer to Saturday the sharps will buy back Florida at (-7 or 7.5) creating a nice middle for themselves. Actually Stan was surprised that the Offshore Books and Vegas brought the number out so early with the uncertainty regarding Tebow. For a game of this nature they should of held the game off the board for a day or two to have a better idea if Tebow was going to play or not. Stan says that this move was not a result of steam but a positioning bet from Wise Guys who will buy back later in the week with Florida. Connecticut @ PittConnecticut Opened (+10.5) Now (+8)Stan notes that this Games was bet right from the start as this game quickly made it's way down to 8 from 10.5 as the Wise Guys seemed like they couldn't get enough of Connecticut. Stan says you have to respect this move as they are betting against Pitt a team that was on National TV last Friday and looked very dominate in beating Louisville 35-10 so the fact they jumped on the dog here is a Move to respect. Stan believes this was a True Steam Move.
Bowling Green @ KentKent Opened (+6) Now (+4.5)This move on the Dog has the Wise Guys and oddsmakers just disagreeing in the real value of these two teams. Fact is Bowling Green hasn't done a thing since they almost beat Missouri in the second game of the season. It appears the Oddsmakers are having trouble deciding the right number for Bowling Green. The Wise Guys told them they are wrong and jumped on the dog. Stan says he believes the Wise Guys move to be the right side given the fact Bowling Green is giving up 6.8 yards per rush the last 3 games. Stan says Kent is a True Steam Move.Washington @ CarolinaWashington Opened (+4.5) now (+3)Offshore this line opened at 4.5 but the Vegas casinos were smarter than that and waited and opened the line at 3.5 & 3 . Stan's take was the Oddsmakers were thinking that Carolina being a playoff team last year and at 0-3 this year would get some action coming off the bye week. Well the Wise Guys know Carolina isn't good and they have adjusted their numbers faster than the Oddsmakers have so the Wise Guys took the value and grabbed all the 4 and 4.5's they could find with Washington. Stan believes this was a True Steam Move and that this line should settle right on 3 come Sunday.
Stan Sharp is a Professional Bettor in Las Vegas that has won 57.5% of his plays over a 30+ month period. Last Week Stan went 6-1 and over the last 3 months Stan is hitting 62% on all selections. Stan only bets one game a day
but the work begins early in the week as Stan monitors how the lines move and why the money is being bet the way it is.
Nice read of the lines Stan...as predicted the Florida line moved back up as you said it would. You said Connecticut was a True Steam move and they got the money. You said Kent was a True Steam Move and they got the money. Finally you said Washington was Bet Early by the sharps and Washington got the money...Great insight into the lines..Keep up the Good Work! Between you and VR we got the Vegas Strip covered by two of the sharpest wise guys in town.
I am tailing the Connecticut pick.
This is line move discussion (NOT official best bets).
Are the Skins his release? Or does he have an official release at 12:30 on Sunday?
Between Stan and VR, we get a really nice taste of how the wiseguys are thinking, and we can try to add that info to our own handicapping. Great articles - PLEASE keep them coming!!
I agree, these articles are very good. It gives you an idea of what's going in.
And concerning CT, Lutrus may play. He was cleared to practice Tuesday. This is the 3rd straight year that UConn has opened conference play on the road. It won at Pitt in 2007 & at Louisville in 2008.
I like reading these articles every week and think they are worth taking a few moments to take a look at. I totally agree with the move on Connecticut against Pittsburgh because I think the Huskies are a much better fundamentally coached football team than the Panthers. Dave Wanstadt's Pittsburgh teams have been notorious for having letdown losses after some nice wins. However, I really don't agree with the move on Washington. I listen to Jim Zorn, the players, and beat reporters all week, and this team just doesn't give a damn. They aren't very good either. They are also 22nd in the league against the rush. There is no way in hell I would back them this week against a winless Carolina team with a spread of 3.5/4.
As good as Pitt looked, last game the sharps must have loved Conn not to wait for the public to bet Pitt and maybe drive the line up even more.