Rob Crowne - All Comments

re: NY GIANTS ARE UNDOCUMENTED "FOREIGNERS"

evollewis — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:26:36 GMT

I like the name... Looking forward for a good game.

[url=http://vpn4all.com/]VPN[/url]

re: NY GIANTS ARE UNDOCUMENTED "FOREIGNERS"

evollewis — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:25:08 GMT

I like the name... Looking forward for a good game.

re: NY GIANTS ARE UNDOCUMENTED "FOREIGNERS"

midnite football — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 02:22:20 GMT

Both states share the team name. They took the "New" from New Jersey and the "York" from New York.

re: BATTLE OF THE BAY & THE PRESEASON ADMONITION

Rob Crowne — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 02:03:23 GMT

Bryan, has it really been that long? Thanks for the good wishes. Great to hear from you. You're one of the very few remaining top handicapping talents that hasn't joined the group here yet. Does your presence mean that is about to change, or are you merely browsing? Give me a call when you can, my number is the same, or I'll call you when I get a chance. Best of luck to you too, but, as I recall, you never needed luck to win.

re: BATTLE OF THE BAY & THE PRESEASON ADMONITION

Bryan Leonard — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 13:04:35 GMT

Rob, Haven't spoken to you in over two decades. Damn we're getting old. Nice to see you're still putting in the work. Best of luck this season, Bryan.

re: BATTLE OF THE BAY & THE PRESEASON ADMONITION

sudwerks — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 12:29:58 GMT

Rob. Thanks for verbalizing my sentiments. As a member of the 49er Faithful, it's wonderful to see the Raiders flounder...again and again.

OUT.

SUDWERKS.

re: BATTLE OF THE BAY & THE PRESEASON ADMONITION

Rob Crowne — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 12:17:53 GMT

Given Oakland's embarrassing 3-20 loss last night, it's hard to believe that Coach Jackson could be so far removed from reality and so oblivious to how stupid and incompetent he appears to keep making the same statements game after game as quoted in the article. We have a coach who says in the preseason that he wants to win so badly that he is "pissed off" that his team hasn't done so, and his team can't score more than 3 points for the second week, and in the 4th preseason game in which their opponent, Seattle, was probably doing nothing more than trying to get out without injury.

It's hard to imagine how much worse the Raiders will do when playing against teams that are actually also trying to win in the regular season.

re: BELMONT STAKES: Does the Post Matter? + (Added Comment)

Rob Crowne — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 12:34:47 GMT

Horses for Courses.

Even though there appears to be no general post position bias on a dry track in the Belmont Stakes , any given post may effect individual runners differently. Shackleford has drawn post 12 this year. Shsckleford runs best on the front end. There is no question that a horse must often exert more at the start to get to the front than a horse that is content to drop into the middle of the pack or run at the rear. If Shackelford must duel for the lead with a horse inside of him, he will be off the rail much longer than if he can reach the lead uncontested. Sometimes, for tactical reasons, the jockey on the inside can refuse to let the rider on the outside get to the rail. Thus, the outside post could, under certain circumstances, provide a much greater disadvantage to Shackelford than to a horse such as Animal Kingdom that is content to run at the back of the pack.

In Shackleford’s favor, there are no other true speed horses in this race, and only four horses that have ever both shown gate speed and run well at or near the lead. Those four horses are Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Stay Thirsty, and Prime Cut.

Mucho Macho Man has drawn post 10, which places the horse in an almost equal situation with Shackelford if jockey Dominguez decides to take Mucho Macho Man to the top. Dominquez has never ridden the horse before, so it can’t be said with certainty what he will do, but Mucho Macho Man has only broken on top in two out of his 10 lifetime races, and the horse did not win either race. Further, the horse had never shown the sort of gate speed that would challenge Shackleford. It is most likely that Mucho will be content to drop in second or third on the rail, a spot from which he runs best.

Santiva, Stay Thirsty, and Prime Cut all have the ability to run on top, but do not normally do so. They little reason to change their usual running styles and challenge for the lead in the longest race they have ever run.

The rest of the field will probably be holding back, hoping someone else goes to the front, and Shackelford should be able to accommodate them easily without the #12 post hampering him at all.

Finally, whether or not the #1 post provides a slight advantage, Master of the Hounds does not have the gate speed to take advantage of it. The horse will likely get shuffled back on the rail and be required to get out in traffic and circle horses in the stretch. As we said earlier, if the track is wet, the post will be a huge disadvantage.

re: WORLD ENDING BET OF ALL TIME IN PREAKNESS

Rob Crowne — Sun, 22 May 2011 06:15:46 GMT

The absurd part of the whole thing is that his followers don't ask themselves why Camping needs contributions if the world is going to end. There really is a sucker born every minute.

How ironic would it be if we find out the 89-year old Camping died at 6:20 on May 21, 2011. As for the rest of us, I presume you are all still here, no one has been destroyed, and no one has risen up to heaven; except, that is, for me. I won my No Finish for the Four Horsemen bet, and I've been in 7th Heaven ever since.

Speaking of bets, if you boxed the Contenders above in the Superfecta, as suggested, you invested $84 and collected $311

re: WORLD ENDING BET OF ALL TIME IN PREAKNESS

jv wins — Sat, 21 May 2011 23:36:16 GMT

14 million dollars huh,unfrickin believable.not when you consider though that three quarters of the worlds population HAS to be told what to do or they cant survive

re: Super Bowl XLV Post Game Analysis

deliveryman3 — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 23:01:44 GMT

no doubt when u turn it over 3x u most likley will lose....hard to overcome...doesnt work for one game but during season when u see team have couple of bad turnover games they usually cover the next week as opposed to playing vs the team that has been turnover prone...good way to back a bad team while public backs the better team and u get some xtra points most of the time...not 100% but an edge.

re: HANDICAPPING THE PRO BOWL

Gold6185 — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 03:13:50 GMT

It boggles my mind that on a site that attempts to educate individuals to be intelligent sports bettors that anyone would even place a wager on this type of nonsense. But the comments in the forums are full of people who really don't understand the concept of value betting and are actually betting this game. It's beyond idiotic.

re: HANDICAPPING THE COLLEGE BOWLS - Stats to Use

Rob Crowne — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 22:42:13 GMT

By the way, from a purely anecdotal standpoint, I have used both Away/Away and Overall statistics to handicap the same games, and found my prediction of score differentials are generally more accurate using the overall numbers. That is not to say that comparisons cannot be validly made using the Away/Away numbers. When makikng comparisons, so long as the handicapper uses the same statistics for both, a comparison can be made that has some validly. It is simply a question of comparative accuracy between Away/Away and all games. What can be done to obtain comparisons of teams for the purpose of a final point differential,however, cannot be used at all for absolute score predictions such as a total. To predict whether a line will be covered, all i need to do is compare the teams on some equal basis. If one team is significantly better than the other, I can make a valid prediction using any equivalent statistics for the two. If the line is -3 and the Away/Away numbers predict a 10 point win by the favorite while the Overall numbers predict a 17 point, I will have correctly predicted a score cover either way. Still, if the game ends with the favorite winning by 17 or more points, I will consider the overall numbers to have produced the more accurate result. That becomes important if the line is close to the prediction or if the plays are to be rated. When predicting a total, however, the handicapper must come up with a single score size prediction rather than a team comparison. For that prupose, I have found that using Away/Away numbers lacks sufficient accuracy to create a wining percentage. In fact, the predictions of the total can often be completely opposite using both sets of statistics on the same game, with the Overall having a significantly better win percentage over the two seasons that I used both sets of numbers. In fact, using the Away stsatistics would have produced two losing seasons, while using the overalll numbers produced one small winning season and one big winning season during the same years.

It seems that the location of a game can greatly affect the total, and averaging the locations is simply producing a less skewed single score size prediction. Sciores are not a good way to predict totals in football, but you can do your own research by adding up total yardage offensively and defensively and averging them separately for home games and road games. Then compare the yardage. You will see some consistent differences for each team. This comparison must be done for each separately because some teams will improve more offensively at home, while others will improve more defensively at home.

re: HANDICAPPING THE COLLEGE BOWLS - Stats to Use

Rob Crowne — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 22:03:53 GMT

Thanks. I agree that a comparison of neutral field numbers to home and away numbers would be very informative. Unfortuantely, in college football there simply are not enough neutral field games for valid research to be done. Often, the bowl game is the only neutral field game for the season. When there is an earlier season neutral field game, it commonly is not a true neutral field, but rather an alternative local field for one of the teams.

re: HANDICAPPING THE COLLEGE BOWLS - Stats to Use

BettingResearch — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 13:51:24 GMT

Very interesting thread, thanks for the response. While all of your assumptions are purely speculation and based on your own personal intuition, I would be very interested to see some stats on how teams perform in neutral site games.

For example, I would be interested to see if neutral site games play out more like a road or home game for teams. Would be very interesting to see those results if anyone has them.