Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
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Keeping track of the Hilton NFL Contest can be an excellent lesson in short term vs. long term results.   At the end of three weeks of NFL action,  the top selector in the Hilton Contest stood at an excellent, and very lucky, 13-2 (87%).  You don't expect him to be 69-11 at the end of the Contest, do you?  The next four selectors were tied for 2nd place with a record of 12-3 (80%).  

There are 60 contestants who stand at 67% winners after three weeks.  That's approximately 1 in every 6 contestants.  When the contest ends, each handicapper will have made 80 selections.  It is unlikely anyone will be at 67% or more after 80 selections.  It is so unusual for anyone to hit 67% in 80 selections that the Hilton offers a $10,000 bonus each year if any contestants finish at or above that percentage.  Most years, a finish at 63-65% is sufficient to walk away with the top prize of approximately $300,000.  

The reversion to realistic percentages has begun, as those who jumped on board the top selector as if they were jumping into a hot craps table unfortunately discovered this week.  Not a single one of the top 5 selectors has had a winning week so far.  

Parlayexperts.com, the top selector, is 0-4 this week, with Minnesota pending tonight.  

Jasterpix.net (makes you wonder who took Jaxterpix.com) is 2-2 with Minnie pending.

Sean Lenahan is also 2-2 with Minnesota pending.

Ace/Jeff Smith (no relation to Ace/John Doe) is also 2-2, with (you guessed it!) pending.

The only contestant fully determined this week is RGS 2 with a record of 1-4.  

That's a combined 7-14 (33%) so far, with only Minnesota to save a winning week for just two out of the 5 handicappers.  If Minnesota wins the record for all 5 will still be a losing 11-14 (44%).  If Minnesota continues this week's trend and loses, then the combined record will be a hideous 7-18 (28%), with all five of the top contestants being below 50% this week. and lowering the best possible record of all the top five contestants to 15-5 (75%).  That's a mere 8 percentage points away from losing the bonus.  

The favorite at home on Monday NIght combined with the Bret Favre hype has sent the line on Minnesota running from -3 up to -5 right now.   According to Sportsbookspy an incredible 62% of all bettors are on Minnesota.  Minnesota is so hot that the four sports writers analyzing the game in the Green Bay Press-Gazette, a publication normally biased toward Green Bay, picked the Vikings to cover the spread.  

It is often observed that everyone being on one side of the game is the kiss of death for that side.  Will Minnesota win and save face for at least two of the top selectors in the Hilton, or will this week's losing curse continue?  . Is the public correct?  Rob Crowne knows, and if you Click Here you'll know too.  The side and total in tonight's game is up with an analysis, and one of the plays is a Crowne Jewel.  

No matter which team wins tonight, the Hilton Contest is a lesson in why you should never jump on or off a a handicapper based on short term results, and why you shouldn't believe those guys who tell you they hit 69%+ every year..   

  • www.youtube.com/watch

  • Good Luck Jaxterspix.  Sorry about misspelling your name.  

    Congratulations on another winning week.  

  • Hello I am back. Finished 3-2 for the week 4 NFL. Made two bad pix w/ TENN & NYJETS. Should have known that NYJ QB Sanchez was waiting to be exposed as the Rookie is is, and TENN has some real problems. TENN was 0-3 and this was a "must-win" spot and they got crushed by the JAX team that they play 2x per year. Rivalry game. Bad move on my part.

    Getting ready for Week 5.


  • Minnesota, which was my Crowne Jewel play, won.  Despite the win by the Vikes, last week's top Hilton handicapper has been knocked out of 1st place, and replaced by a tie for 1st between two handicappers who were in a tie with others for 3rd last week.  The record of the 1st place contestants is now 16-4 (80%), down from 13-2 (86.6%).;  

  • Wrote an answer to one of the contestants who replied here, but when I posted the answer the reply had disappeared.  

    Since it wasn't deleted by me, I assume it was deleted by the poster himself or by Pregame (perhaps because it was considered solicitation).  

    Anyway, I deleted my answer because it made no sense to be answering a post that no longer existed.  My answer had what I believe to be information of sufficient general interest to warrant a separate blog article.  I'll post that in the near furure.  I just didn't want anyone who saw the reply that disappeared, or who saw my answer, to wonder where it all went.

  • Good Stuff Rob great take on the Hilton Contest

  • Rob wanted to personally thank you for replying in my thread. It made a lot of sense and I wanted you to know I appreciated it. Again THANK YOU!!!