Once upon a time, a long time ago, in the land of Las Vegas, far far away, when Pregame was just a fantasy in RJ's head (when you are surrounded by show girls all day, you fantasize about sports websites), there was something called the PLUS10 Club. Rumor has it the Plus10 still exists. Check it out.
Way back then I was given a free $50 account as a promotion by an offshore sports book. I was giving a free pick everyday to PLUS10 subscribers, and I decided to that I would see how much I could accumulate in that $50 account while everyone else played along with me in their own accounts. Once the account got above $300, it never again fell below that. At its highest point before I stopped contributing to PLUS10, it reached a little over $1100. I've gotten another promotional account. This time it's $100, and I've decided to do it again. We'll set a goal of beating the 23x top we hit the last time. Since we're starting with $100, the proportional record would be $2300. To beat it we'll set a goal of $2400 before we take them money out with a hearty thank you to the book and buy the significant other something nice. Used to be you could buy a damn nice necklace or bracelet for that kind of money. Today, you can get a damn nice wallet to go inside her $6000 hand bag. Oh, well, it beats having him or her harp on you for betting the games. Here are the rules:I will post the pick and the exact amount to bet on it from bankroll in this blog thread everyday. This blog thread will continue until we either bust out or hit our $2400 goal.Be sure to play exactly as I tell you. If for any reason I fail to tell you an amount to play, it will be assumed that the risk on the play was a standard 10% of bankroll until the bankroll doubles to $200 and after that it will be a standard 5% of bankroll until the bankroll gets to $1000, at which time it will become a standard 2% of bankroll. Remember those are the amounts assumed only in the absence of any other stated amount. In money line sports, the standard amount will be the amount to be risked for the comeback at the odds. For example, if the assumed bet it $20 on a -150 favorite and it wins the win would be 20/150 = $13. The loss if the play loses would be a flat $20, NOT $20 x1.50. If no play is up by one hour before the start of the first evening game that day, there probably will not be a play. I a play will come up late, I'll post an annouuncement no later than one hour before the first evening.Finally, these will, in most instances be my plays. I will try to put them up early. Additional late information may come in on the game after the play is posted, or the Syndicate group whose plays I also use for Pregame subscribers may come in on the opposite side of the game after I post it here. For that reason, I cannot guarantee that the selections here wil always be one of my selections given to subscribers. The play may be elimnnated late, or on very rare occasions end up being opposite a play I give to subscribers based on late information or from the Syndicate. Under all circumstances, however, the play as posted here will count toward the offshore account. The balance in our offshore account is now $100. See the Replies for tonight's play.
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Are you sure you're not fronting as Hondo
The Brooklyn Bums lost, lowering the bankroll to $43.
For Thursday, August 27, we're going with the late West Coast start between Seattle and KC.
We're taking Seattle Sailors -155 to scuttle Kansas City Kings and Queens.
Fista only has 20 innings under his belt, but he is the better pitcher in every category. Once the starters leave Seattle has the better available bull pen based on average hits & walks per 9 and on ERA.
Add to that Seattle having the better bats based on righty/lefty, home/road numbers for each team. I calculate the probability of a Seatlle win to be about 70%, which is the equivalent of -233. All you need to lay is -155. That's a bargain in my book.
We took the worst of the 50 cents last time. This time we'll even if out by laying $15 to win 10 on Seattle.
The last play on Texas won, bringing the bankroll up to $60. For Sunday, August 23, 2009 we're going back to baseball again with the carpet bagging traitors, the Brooklyn Dogders -165 over the Cubs.
To me they will always be the Brooklyn Dodgers. I saw my very first baseball game at night with my dad in Ebbets Field. I have loved the Dodgers ever since, but hated them for leaving Brooklyn.
Based on both overall and home and road numbers, Billingsley has the better hits & walks per 9 record, the better ERA, and the better runs allowed records. The Dodgers also average more runs based on home/away and left/righty numbers. The Dodgers also have the significantly better available bull pen based on ERA and hits & walks per 9.
The Dodgers are at home and on a home winning streak of 3-0 and 4-2, while the Cubs are on a road losing streak of 0-3 and 1-5. The Cubs are 26-38 on the road and the Dodgers are 40-24 at home.
We'll risk $17 to win $10 on the Dodgers -165.
Our bankroll is back up to $50 after winning a big play on our first CFL pick of the season. Tonight we're back to baseball.
We're playing $14 to win $10 on TEXAS RANGERS -140 in the FIRST 5 INNINGS ONLY.
Based on home and road numbers Hunter has the superior ERA, the better Hits & Walks/9, and the allows fewer runs per game.
Texas hits better at home vs. lefties than Minnesota does on the road vs. righties.
The only place where Minnesota is slighlly better is in the available bull pen tonight, and we eliminate that problem by sticking to the first 5 innings.
Thank you Doc. Calgary lost the prior game in the last minute at home and Winnipeg never wins at Calgary, but laying 15 points was simply too much. I gave Winnipeg a high probability of covering.
For those wondering, The proper Kelly bet should have been $14 I decided to play $6 over the Kelly bet because of the low amount of the bankroll. Assuming the minimum bet is $5.50, if I lost the $22 it would have only meant a one bet difference to bankruptcy. Happily, we made the comeback to a $50 bankroll.
Winnipeg came through for you outscoring Calgary 20-8 to lose by only 8 and cover the number. Congrats on your win.
It's not looking good Rob. The Bombers are in close running if not ahead of Toronto as the worse team thus far in the CFL this year. Thus the reason for such a big line swing. They got up for the home game vs. Calgary earlier this year, but they're definitely in a funk right now.
It's been a long time between drinks. It's summer, the offshore account was on a losing streak, and I decided to go on vacation.
I'm back jst in time for Preseason Football and the teams in the CFL to finally have enough games under their belts for a decent statistical handicap.
Tonight we're going to go with our first CFL selection:
WINNIPEG + 14 1/2 over Calgary.
The linemaker expects the Blue Bombing smurfs of Winnipeg to get Stampeded by Calgary. It won't happen.
Winnipeg beat Calgary just one month ago by a score of 42-30. The home to road turnaround between these two isn't close to 27 points .
Calgary has the better offense, averaging 389 yards at home, compared to Winnipeg's 299 yards offensively on the road. The yardage difference is the equivalent of about 6 points. That's not good enough to cover the huge 14.5 pt lay. .
Making things better for Winnipeg's cover is that the Blue Bombers are better defensively allowing an average of 588 yds compared to Calgary's 629 yds.
Winnipeg is also much better when it comes to turnovers.
The money management is bad. Kelly would have a fit, and this bet goes against everything I recommend, but we might as well stop pussy footing around with our remaining $30. Let's play $22 to win $20 on Winnipeg + 14.5.