Once upon a time, a long time ago, in the land of Las Vegas, far far away, when Pregame was just a fantasy in RJ's head (when you are surrounded by show girls all day, you fantasize about sports websites), there was something called the PLUS10 Club. Rumor has it the Plus10 still exists. Check it out.
Way back then I was given a free $50 account as a promotion by an offshore sports book. I was giving a free pick everyday to PLUS10 subscribers, and I decided to that I would see how much I could accumulate in that $50 account while everyone else played along with me in their own accounts. Once the account got above $300, it never again fell below that. At its highest point before I stopped contributing to PLUS10, it reached a little over $1100. I've gotten another promotional account. This time it's $100, and I've decided to do it again. We'll set a goal of beating the 23x top we hit the last time. Since we're starting with $100, the proportional record would be $2300. To beat it we'll set a goal of $2400 before we take them money out with a hearty thank you to the book and buy the significant other something nice. Used to be you could buy a damn nice necklace or bracelet for that kind of money. Today, you can get a damn nice wallet to go inside her $6000 hand bag. Oh, well, it beats having him or her harp on you for betting the games. Here are the rules:I will post the pick and the exact amount to bet on it from bankroll in this blog thread everyday. This blog thread will continue until we either bust out or hit our $2400 goal.Be sure to play exactly as I tell you. If for any reason I fail to tell you an amount to play, it will be assumed that the risk on the play was a standard 10% of bankroll until the bankroll doubles to $200 and after that it will be a standard 5% of bankroll until the bankroll gets to $1000, at which time it will become a standard 2% of bankroll. Remember those are the amounts assumed only in the absence of any other stated amount. In money line sports, the standard amount will be the amount to be risked for the comeback at the odds. For example, if the assumed bet it $20 on a -150 favorite and it wins the win would be 20/150 = $13. The loss if the play loses would be a flat $20, NOT $20 x1.50. If no play is up by one hour before the start of the first evening game that day, there probably will not be a play. I a play will come up late, I'll post an annouuncement no later than one hour before the first evening.Finally, these will, in most instances be my plays. I will try to put them up early. Additional late information may come in on the game after the play is posted, or the Syndicate group whose plays I also use for Pregame subscribers may come in on the opposite side of the game after I post it here. For that reason, I cannot guarantee that the selections here wil always be one of my selections given to subscribers. The play may be elimnnated late, or on very rare occasions end up being opposite a play I give to subscribers based on late information or from the Syndicate. Under all circumstances, however, the play as posted here will count toward the offshore account. The balance in our offshore account is now $100. See the Replies for tonight's play.
TODAY'S OFFSHORE PLAY IS MY MIRROR IMAGE GAME OF THE YEAR ON A LATE MLB GAME TONIGHT.
Note: My Mirror Image Game of the Year has never ever lost, mainly because I have never-ever had a Mirror Image Game of the Year before.
We have LA vs LA, J. Weaver vs. J. Weaver, and a righty vs. a righty.
Back in the 60's there was a folk group of mediocre popularity called "The Weavers." To my knowledge none of them every pitched in the majors. Tonight's Weaver brothers are about as similar to each other and the original Weavers were to the Heavy Metal bands.
Jered Weaver for the Angels, has allowed 9 hits and walks per 9 innings -- just one per inning -- in 90 innings pitched this season. Jeff Weaver for the Dodgers has allowed five more hits and walks per 9 on average. Hits and walks/9 is the most predictive statistic for pitchers.
Loking at Home and Away numbers for each pitcher the differential gets even more extreme. Jeff Weaver of he Dodgers has allowed an absolutely hideous 27 hits & walks/9 on the road with an 11.12 ERA. Jered Weaver of the Angels has allowed a mere 6.39 hits & walks/9 with an ERA of 1.01 in 5 home games. You don't see differentials like that too often.
On the offensive side, the Angels average 6.73 runs per game at home vs. righthanders, while the Dodgers can only manage 2.63 runs per game on the road vs righties.
The Dodgers used to come from Brooklyn, and they used to be men. Now they can't even beat a bunch of flitty Angels from LA LA land. The only vestige of the old Brooklyn Bums is the bull pen. The Angels available bull pen stinks and the Dodgers have the much better available bull pen.
My fear in this game is that the Angels could get off to a big lead and lose it late. I am not willing to take that chance laying odds. To avoid that problem, the first play in the offshore account is going to be:
ANGELS (1ST 5 INNINGS ONLY) -170 over Dodgers (Weaver over Weaver)
We'll play $17 to win $10.
To be sung to the tune of "We're Off to See the Wizard" from the original Wizard of Oz movie with Judy Garland.
We're off to see the bookie
To pay him off at the odds
We took the Angels with a pitcher of pitchers if ever a pitcher there was.
But if ever a horrible pitcher there was, last night Jered Weaver was one because
Because, because, because, because, becu-u-u-z
Because he forgot which Weaver he wuz
Bumpety bumpety bump ba bump
We're off to see our bookie to pay him off at the odds.
Jered Weaver threw in a clunker last night. It's perfectly understandable. He got confused and thought he was Jeff Weaver.
It's my fault really. A pitcher identity crisis is the one factor I didn't take into account in handicapping that game. Live and learn. I'll be sure to consider it the next time I get two pitchers with the same name facing each other.
The Offshore Account got off to bad start, and now stands at +$83.
Tonight, thank heavens, we have no pitchers at all. Instead we're playing the side and total in a late WNBA game tipping off at 8:00 PM Eastern time, between the Phoenix Mercury and Seattle.
Last night we had our first MLB 3-Star side play in six weeks. It wasn't easy but it won. Tonight, as it happens, I have my first 3-Star MLB Total play in 6 weeks. Sometimes it just happens that way. I have also have a 2-star side on the game. It's on the late ESPN Game between the Dodgers and Angels again. That's the side and total a 3-star and a 2-star to give your Father's Day and your week a Happy Ending. Simply click or copy and paste the url below:
pregame.com/.../Bettors.aspx
The Offshore Account write up for Sunday will be up at about 4:45 Eastern.
Tonight we have a Bouncing Boobies Ball Side and Total
PHOENIX MERCURY -1 1/2 over Seattle
PHOENIX/SEATTLE UNDER 169.
There are some totals as low as 167.5 out there. Do not take anything less than 168.5. You can play the side up to -2.5.
Phoenix and the under were my first plays of the WNBA season the other night for Crowne Club members and they got us of to nice start at 2-0 n the WNBA. Tonight we're going with the same side and total.
Phoenix has the much better offense, but Seattle has the much better defense. In basketball, the better offense will usually prevail over the better defense.
Seattle will not win this game tonight by outscoring Phoenix. The only way Seattle has a chance is to slow the game down and manage to hold Phoenix's potent offense down. Thus, I consider it very unlikely that we will lose both plays tonight. If Phoenix loses, the total should win. The side and total could easily both win however, and both handicap to win.
I expect Seattle to hold Phoenix down, but not enough to keep Phoenix from covering the mere 1.5 point spread. We should go 2-0 and if we don't, the worst should be a push.
I'll count the total at the line I see as most common about 15 minutes after I post this.
PLAY $11 TO WIN $10 ON PHOENIX, AND $11 TO WIN $10 ON UNDER 169.
THE OFFSHORE ACCOUNT BALANCE NOW STANDS AT $83, AND WE'RE 0-1 $17 IN BASEBALL.
Don't forget the MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH AND TWO STAR SIDE both on the Late ESPN Father's Day Game.
Click or copy and paste the url below
Quick Disclaimer: These bets are strictly imaginary and for entertainment purposes only. We do not condone nor do we recommend bettiing on sporting events offshore or otherwise in any jurisdiction in which it might be illegal. Hopefully, now that those damn "anti-gambling" Republicans are no longer in control, I will soon be able to stop posting this disclaimer.
Last night I was just simply wrong in the WNBA. Seattle did manage to outscore Phoenix without holding them down significantly. Seattle scored about 15 points more than I thought they would on the way to a straight up victory, and the game went over the total by 7 points.
The only thing I can blame it on is the fact that there isn't a great deal of statistical backup yet this season.
We lose $11 on each bet. That brings the OFFSHORE ACCOUNT down from $83 to $61. It seems I'm going to have to get started winning from the $50 mark again, just like last time, but this time involuntarily.
There are only 4 games on the board tonight. I'm passing all four, and taking the significant other out on last week's winnings. I should have the next pick here tomorrow.
This season has been one of the toughest in recent memory. I start every day hoping the entire board is playable. In baseball, this season very little has been playable. There is no lack of games on the board, but I only like one game and I'm passing in the offshore account.
When it's not there, it's not there, and it never makes sense to force it. Maybe we'll have a better board tomorrow.
PLAYING $10 PER BET GONNA TAKE YOU A LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG TIME TO REACH $2400 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! G L !
Igirl - It took only 6 months to go from $50 to $1200 last time I did this. There's a compounding effect. Have patience.
Not wanting to see this account become a disaster, we took a 5 day rest after 3 losses. The account now stands at +$62.
Today's Play:
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -120 over Minnesota (Pieiro over Liriano)
The Twins being that they are Twins can double up on you. But Cardinals are religious and speak directly to the Great Bookmaker in the Sky himself. If there's anything that can beat an unfair double down by a bunch of Twins, and have us all praising God, Allah, Jehovah, Yehuda, and the Great Spirit for helping us to win, its linking our fortunes with a group of Cardinals.
For you atheists and infidels out there, Liriano for the Twins allows a huge 15.5 hits and walks per 9 innings and a hideous 8.4 runs per game on the road, compared to an excellent 9.27 hits & walks/9 and just 3.5 runs per game for Pineiro.
St. Louis has the better available bull pen. The hitting based on righty/lefty numbers is about equal.
St. Louis is 22-17 at home, and Minnesota is only 14-23 on the road.
The offshore account stands at +62. We'll play $12 to win $10 on the Clergymen -120.
OOPS. I almost forgot my disclaimer necessary to prevent arrest by the Arizona Republicans.
These bets are strictly imaginary and for entertainment purposes only. We do not condone nor do we recommend bettiing on sporting events offshore or otherwise in any jurisdiction in which it might be illegal.
CORRECTION: THE OFFSHORE ACCOUNT STANDS AT +$61 NOT +$62.
We are 0-1 -$17 in baseball, and 0-2 on a side and total in the WNBA.
Play for Thursday July 2.
As I predicted, somebody in power wanted me to start out at $50 again. The balance in the offshore account now stands at $49 -- close enough.
For our first win I'm going back to bouncing boobie ball again with:
MINNESOTA LYNX -6 over Sacramento.
Sacramento is 0-6 on the road and 1-8 overall. They average 69.5 points per game compared to the Lynx who are 7-3 overall, 4-1 at home, and 7-3 (70% ATS), and average 82.5 points per game at home.
Defensively Sacramento allows 3.5 more points per game than Minnesota.
The only thing that has me worried here is that Sacramento is slightly better at rebounding. Nevertheless, these two played last week, and Scaramento lost at home to Minnesota by 3 points. The home to road turnaround differential for these two is 23 points. Minnesota should cover easily.
Take Minnesota for $11 to win $10.
Can anybody tell me: What kind of bra do lady basketball players wear to prevent their boobs from bouncing off their stocmachs and hitting them in the chin? And does it hurt?
I know what hurts ME. My third loss in a row in no-bounce boobie ball. The record in the WNBA now stands at 0-3, In baseball, we're 0-2 -$29. The balance in the offshore account has now dwindled to $38, and I'm about to rename this thread, "How to Lose a Free Promotional Account Quick."
Tonight we put an end to the losing with two teams from the Old West. It's the Colorado Rockies -200 over Arizona. Sure its a big lay, but Real Men like a big gaping lay every once in a while, and besides I need a winner.
Colorado's Cook is the superior pitcher, allowing 11.97 hits & walks per 9 inninhgs and 4.2 runs per game, compared to 15.66 hits & walks per 9 and 8 runs per game allowed for Petit for Arizona.
Colrado also has the better bats based on each team's numbers against right handers.
Both teams have a stinky bull pen. but the available bull pen for Colorado is less stinky.
We'll put $8 of our measly $38 on the Rockies to win the 4th of July shoot'em up and show those snakes in the grass from Arizona who ther real Americans are.
There's one place I haven't been losing lately, and that's on my pick packages. That could be because I'm only putting up the rare big plays. Tonight I have a FOURTH OF JULY SALE on the TOP 3-STAR SIDE in a late game. You can get it by clicking here. pregame.com/.../Bettors.aspx
It's been a long time between drinks. It's summer, the offshore account was on a losing streak, and I decided to go on vacation.
I'm back jst in time for Preseason Football and the teams in the CFL to finally have enough games under their belts for a decent statistical handicap.
Tonight we're going to go with our first CFL selection:
WINNIPEG + 14 1/2 over Calgary.
The linemaker expects the Blue Bombing smurfs of Winnipeg to get Stampeded by Calgary. It won't happen.
Winnipeg beat Calgary just one month ago by a score of 42-30. The home to road turnaround between these two isn't close to 27 points .
Calgary has the better offense, averaging 389 yards at home, compared to Winnipeg's 299 yards offensively on the road. The yardage difference is the equivalent of about 6 points. That's not good enough to cover the huge 14.5 pt lay. .
Making things better for Winnipeg's cover is that the Blue Bombers are better defensively allowing an average of 588 yds compared to Calgary's 629 yds.
Winnipeg is also much better when it comes to turnovers.
The money management is bad. Kelly would have a fit, and this bet goes against everything I recommend, but we might as well stop pussy footing around with our remaining $30. Let's play $22 to win $20 on Winnipeg + 14.5.
It's not looking good Rob. The Bombers are in close running if not ahead of Toronto as the worse team thus far in the CFL this year. Thus the reason for such a big line swing. They got up for the home game vs. Calgary earlier this year, but they're definitely in a funk right now.
GL
Doc
Winnipeg came through for you outscoring Calgary 20-8 to lose by only 8 and cover the number. Congrats on your win.
Thank you Doc. Calgary lost the prior game in the last minute at home and Winnipeg never wins at Calgary, but laying 15 points was simply too much. I gave Winnipeg a high probability of covering.
For those wondering, The proper Kelly bet should have been $14 I decided to play $6 over the Kelly bet because of the low amount of the bankroll. Assuming the minimum bet is $5.50, if I lost the $22 it would have only meant a one bet difference to bankruptcy. Happily, we made the comeback to a $50 bankroll.
Our bankroll is back up to $50 after winning a big play on our first CFL pick of the season. Tonight we're back to baseball.
We're playing $14 to win $10 on TEXAS RANGERS -140 in the FIRST 5 INNINGS ONLY.
Based on home and road numbers Hunter has the superior ERA, the better Hits & Walks/9, and the allows fewer runs per game.
Texas hits better at home vs. lefties than Minnesota does on the road vs. righties.
The only place where Minnesota is slighlly better is in the available bull pen tonight, and we eliminate that problem by sticking to the first 5 innings.