Last Tuesday night, the posted total in the Detroit/Chicago game opened at 190, ran down to 188 ? and 10 minutes before the game started ran back up to 191 or 191.5 in some places. If you bet the "under" after the line ran down to 188.5 because you were trying to follow the smart money, or you bet the "over" after the line ran back up to 191 for the same reason, you are betting exactly wrong.You can't win long term trying to follow the "wise guys" after the line has moved. When you bet into a line move caused by the syndicates, you are not following them and you are not playing along with them. In many cases, you're the sucker at the table. The big money is able to manipulate lines to their own advantage. They can make a splash by having known runners place a few bets on the wrong side. The books will normally move the line by about 1.5 points as soon as the action comes in. The followers in the public, seeing the move, will then begin betting in the same direction, moving the line even more with their money. When the followers are done, the smarts will come back in and slowly bet the opposite side - the side they really like - at a line that is better by as much as 2.5 points. When the books finally catch on, they will jump the line back, but rarely will it reach the point to which it would have moved had the big money started betting the side they liked in the first instance.The Detroit/Chicago game on Tuesday worked out perfectly for the smart money. The final score landed on 190, exactly in the middle between the line of 191 at which the "smarts" bet the under and the line of 188.5 at which they bet the over. The followers, as they often do, took the worst of it no matter which direction they jumped. If you have a book who is slower to move his lines, you can bet line moves by playing middles. On Tuesday, if you could find 191 and 188.5 at the same time, playing a middle was a great bet. For every $100 you bet under 191 and over 188.5, your total risk of loss is $10 of vig. Whenever the game lands on 189 or 190, however, you will win both $100 bets and collect $200. Whenever the game ends with 191 points you will win $100 on the over 188.5 bet and push the under 191. The odds against the game ending with a score in the middle when you have two numbers fully in the middle and one number to side is slightly more than 4-1. Your win will be $200 to $10 or 20-1 with totals of 189 and 190, and 10-1 with a total of 191. I'll take 20-1, or even 10-1 odds on a 4-1 shot anytime I can get it. The only way to actually follow the syndicates, however, is to know which side is the correct side, and be able to take advantage of that information before any line moves or after a move in the wrong direction. When you know the right side, you stop fearing moves against that side. You welcome those moves instead, because you know they have made your bet better.
I've been connected with one group for 17 years. Whenever I know a play early enough to post it, I've begun to put the plays in packages here at pregame.com. Since I began posting the Syndicate Selections this past weekend, the group has swept the board, 3-0. Be sure to go to my Pick Package Page every day to check for Syndicate games as well as free picks in the package promos. I'll post the Syndicate Selections between 1 PM and no later than 5 PM every day that I have any early enough.
Really insightful post Rob, thank you.
Outstanding information. Like Altham, also love the posts.
Thanks Altham. It's always nice to know that people appreciate my writing.
I always enjoy your blogs. Thank you for sharing great information with the forum.