Some teams may play one or more overtime periods and then be
required to come back and play again the next day. Syracuse, for example, played 6 overtime periods before winning
on Thursday night. The game ended at
1:45 in the morning, and Syracuse had to come back the next evening and play
again. Worse yet, the team had to play
a third time on Saturday.
The best way to bet "tired legs" teams, however, is not
necessarily to play against them in the upcoming game. In the Syracuse game, for instance, everyone
knew about the six OT game, and the line was skewed by giving Syracuse an extra
4 points in the game the next day.
Half-time lines, however, are based on the results of the
first half, and in most cases will not be adjusted in the same manner. Further, if a team is tired, it is the
second-half of the second or third back-to-back game in which the exhaustion is
likely to have the most effect. Second
half lines are posted for all the college basketball games during the March
In Syracuse?s Friday game against West Virginia they were 6-point underdogs. Miraculously, they
won the game on Saturday straight up by 4 points despite having played to 1:45
AM the day before. Syracuse racked up a
big lead in the first half, but lost the second half even though they hung on
to win the game. On Sunday, Syracuse
finally hit the wall. They got off to a
10-point lead at the half and looked like they may be, to quote Jake Blues, on
a "mission from god." The prayers of
the Syracuse fans were not to be answered, however, as Syracuse fell to pieces,
their legs went numb and rubbery, and they lost the by 20 points in the second
half to give those who bet on Louisville for the second half a no-sweat win.
Here?s what to look for when betting Tournament second
The ?tired legs? situations listed
above will have the greatest effect on performance in the second half of
games. Even if the rested team has
gotten off to a big lead in the first half, there is less worry about a
back-door second half win by the tired team because any let-down by the rested
team will be balanced by the exhaustion of the tired team. Finally, second half lines are set based on
the score at the end of the first half, and therefore there is no worry about
the line being skewed because one team is less rested.
RULE: In situations in which tired legs is a factor, always bet against
the tired legs team in the second half rather in the first half or in the game.
Matty -- Thanks for pointing out Louisville.
Has anybody used the system for picking second-half teams?
This is master class level stuff!
Great stuff Rob - I think Louisville is the best second-half team in the country, and they proved it in beating Villanova and Syracuse easily by double digits after trailing both by eight points at halftime the last two games.