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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    Yesterday - 4:48 PM

WHY BIG BROWN FAILED TO DELIVER

It took Rick Dutrow almost two days to finally place the blame for Big Brown's failure on jockey Kent Desmoreaux.    

Dutrow and other observers have said that Desmoreaux tried to force Big Brown to the outside in a panic.  That's probably true, but it still doesn't explain Big Brown's refusal to fire.  A glance at the close-up films of Big Brown in the race, however, tells the story.

As I noted in my PreGame blog article before the race, breaking from the rail post is not an advantage at Belmont.   The track is heavily sloped toward the inside, and horses starting from the outside posts are running downhill when the gate opens.  To win from the #1 Post, it is best to gun your horse at the start and take him to the front.  If you don't he'll get buried and need to put in extra effort to get to the outside and run around horses later.  

Interestingly, the best way to run from the #1 Post is also the best way to win the Belmont.  Despite the race being 1 1/2 miles long, horses that hang back have not done well.   Every Triple Crown winner and most Belmont winners have gone to the front and stayed there -- setting their own pace for the race.  That's exactly how D'Atara won this year.  

Desmoreaux, after failing to accelerate Big Brown to the front at the start, attempted to force Big Brown to the outside with insufficient room.  In so doing, he ran Big Brown into the horse in front, causing Big Brown to get kicked.

The announcers pointed out that such kicks do not normally cause serious injury.  While that is true, such kicks do cause pain.  Imagine getting kicked in the shin by a horse's hoof.  Big Brown felt it just like you would.  As soon as Big Brown felt the kick he threw his head to the side.  In so doing, the horse wasnt being unruly, it was simply attempting to see where it was going.

Theres an old saying that horses will run into the side a barn.  That saying is based in truth.  Horses cannot see the barn or anything else in front of them.  Horses see only to the side and cannot accurately gauge distance in any direction.  A horse's eyes are on the side of its head.  It sees two separate images to each side, and only peripherally to the front.  Optically, to see in 3-dimensions requires two images of the same object.  Horses can never achieve this, and therefore the two images a horse must interpret are 2-dimensional, making it impossible to judge distance.  

When a horse is trained to race, it is trained to trust the jockey to direct it.  When a horse veers out very wide, or hits the rail, or refuses to run, it is usually because the horse has lost trust in the jockey.   Think about your own reaction if you were running blindfolded, guided by a seeing-eye dog, and the dog ran you into a tree.  There's a good chance you'd lose trust in the dog and slow down to avoid another collision.  When Desmoreaux ran Big Brown into the horse in front, Big Brown slowed down, refused to accelerate, and kept turning its head to the side to see in front.  
 
Some of the problem can also be placed on Big Brown's lack of experience.  Big Brown had only had five prior races, all trouble-free. The reaction of a horse more experienced in being bumped and kicked in races may not have been as extreme.  In the case of Big Brown, however, the lack of experience combined with the poor ride worked together to defeat a horse that looked like a sure thing to be the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.  

To Desmoreaux's everlasting discredit, he eased the horse for no apparent reason except to cover the effect of his own bad ride.  When a horse is eased, it appears that something may be physically amiss with the horse. That takes the immediate heat off the jockey.  As already noted, because the horse was eased, it took Dutrow two days to be sure that something wasnt physically wrong with the horse before saying anything about the bad ride.  An announcement two days later is much less damaging to Desmoreaux than the questions, interviews, and blame that would have been heaped on him on national TV if he had not eased Big Brown.    

Big Brown's Wall Street tycoon owners will continue to race him -- without Desmoreaux.  Next time, the odds will probably be more rewarding as a result of the public's misunderstanding of the Belmont performance.   Big Brown's next race may be an opportunity to bet the best horse at better odds with a better jockey on his back.  

 Rob Crowne's Biography

A professional sports bettor and card player for 24 years, Rob is known as being as an expert handicapper and bettor, as well as one of the few sources for picks of the professional sports betting groups... Read more

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