Can somebody explain to me why Arena Football is so much less popular than the NFL and NCAA?
Perhaps the problem is that the smaller field takes away some of the psychological excitement. Football, after all, is a macho sport, and we all know small just ain't macho.
Whether or not you are an Arena Football fan, however, if you bet sports you should not ignore the AFL. The AFL is far more predictable than the NFL. It is rare for any handicapper have a win percentage better than 60% in a season consisting of 60+ NFL selections. In the AFL, however, season win rates between 65% and 70% are not unusual for the skilled handicapper. I've experienced AFL win percentages in that range most seasons, and other handicappers with whom I've spoken have also experienced unusually high win percentages in the AFL.
The higher predictability of game results in the AFL over the NFL appears to be attributable to two factors:
(1) Less parity between teams in the AFL than in the NFL; and
(2) Fewer variables to handicap in the AFL.
The lesser parity is caused, to a great extent, by the fact that there is less player specialization in the AFL. AFL teams are limited in their personnel, and most players are required to play on offense and on defense, as well as to perform functions that would be reserved for the special teams in the NFL. As a result, it is harder for an AFL player to be expert.
Many players can be become equally expert at a single function, but very few players can be become equally expert at many functions. It is more difficult to be a good AFL player than it is to be a good NFL player, and that causes a greater differential between players and consequently between teams.
There are fewer variables in the AFL than in the NFL because the nature of the AFL game and the smaller size of the field lead to fewer play options. One of the biggest differences between the AFL and the NFL is the dominance of the passing game. Despite the smaller field, average AFL passing yardage is equal to that in the NFL. The average run yardage for the majority of teams in the AFL, however, is less than 25 yards per game. The virtual elimination of the running game as a factor eliminates many of the variables present in the NFL. The fewer the variables that must be considered by the handicapper, the greater the potential degree of forecast accuracy.
But forecast accuracy is only part of the story. For a handicapper to achieve a high winning percentage in a sport, the sport must not only be predictable, but it must also have lines that do not reflect that predictability. In other words, the lines must be inaccurate from a handicapping standpoint. The lines in the AFL are less much less accurate than in the NFL. We'll discuss the reasons in the next article.
Packages will be available containing my AFL selections beginning with the games on June 7 at the Rob Crowne Pregamepros Pick Page.
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