You.ve all heard the saying, "Good pitching overcomes good hitting."  Really?  Who decided that?  Do you know?  Was it some baseball announcer who never could pick a winner?  Where's the statistical support for that platitude?  If the good hitting won, how would anyone know whether it was merely an off day for the good pitcher, and vice versa?

It is never a good idea to invest your money based on platitudes and old wives' tales (don't tell your old wife I said that).  It is unsupported sayings such as the one above that cause baseball to be the only sport in which many handicappers forget there is an offense as well as a defense to be considered.

In today's Mets game, Belsile for the Reds is matching up against Sanatana for the Mets.  The posted line has my homies, the Mets, as -240 favorites.  The reason for the high line is that in comparing the pitchers, Santana has the much better numbers.  

The Mets are 5-2 in Sanatan's starts, while the Reds are a losing 1-2 in Belisle's starts.  Santana has a 2.85 ERA, has allowed just 1.01 combined hits and walks per inning, and has allowed an average of only 3.1 runs per game to the opposition.  Belisle on the other hand, has a 6.91 ERA, has allowed 1.88 hits and walks per inning, and his opponents have averaged a huge 9 runs per game against him.

The bookmaker knows that the pitching numbers are all most bettors will care about.  They will completely ignore the fact that there is an offense to go with the defense for each team.  Belisle is a righty and Santana is a lefty.  The Mets hit a poor .227 vs. right handers at Shea Stadium, averaging just 3.6 runs per game against righties.  The Reds hit .a better .260 against left handers when they are on the road.  If the line were made based on hitting, the Reds would have to be favored.  

No team is ever worth laying -240 unless it is superior in all categories -- starting pitching, bull pen pitching, hitting, and fielding.  Don't ever risk your money on unsupported platitudes.  Nobody really knows if good pitching or good hitting will dominate in any given game.  

The Mets have a slight edge in the game based only on the fact that they are at home and the pitching differential in favor of the Mets is greater than the hitting differential in favor of the Reds.  Still, it is a game best passed over if you are interested in assuring that you win betting this one game.  If you can relate to betting in terms of the season, however, the Reds are the correct team to bet based on the odds.  The Reds should, at best, be +140 dogs.  If you can get +220 all season on teams that should be only +140 the underdogs will just often enough to make you a winner by Playoff time. .