RJ Bell

How Baseball Betting Has Changed in the Sabermetric Era [Podcast Interview]

2011-04-27T17:35:00Z

Gill Alexander is a pioneer in applying advanced statistics (i.e., Sabermetrics) to handicapping and MLB betting. Gill joined RJ Bell on the “Today in Sports Betting” podcast to discuss. News from the interview . . .

Value uncovered from Sabermetric analysis points to opportunity on the underdog side of baseball games much more often than the favorite side. This is consistent with the general principal that the unsophisticated public has a bias toward backing the favorites in the marketplace.

A large percentage of Sabermetric data is not accounted for in the marketplace even if the data is applied in a imprecise fashion. Areas of nuance include distinctions between early, middle, and late season. Specifically, the early season has less data to consider, and the mid-season presents questionable motivation for the teams out of the playoff race, while the late season includes many minor league call-ups.

University-level quantitative analysis is not typically applied to sports betting for a number of reasons, including an inverse correlation between sports betting experience during formative years and the pursuit of a hard-science PhD, plus the large number of investment firms throwing around large amounts of money to recruit the leading quants.

Winning handicappers are inclined to creating result feedback loops – i.e., following closely what is working (and what is not) in their handicapping. The average square bettor does not consider the truth of his results nearly enough. Paradoxically, handicappers have to be careful not to mistake unavoidable variance with a fundamental changes that merit handicapping adjustments.

>>> Listen to the entire interview with Gill Alexander and host RJ Bell

Related Links:

Listen to Gill’s Podcast with the Executive Director of Las Vegas Sports Consultants

Gill’s homepage: www.BettingDork.com

All podcasts: www.PregamePodcasts.com

Michael Lewis Book Moneyball

Comments . . .

What do you think of using Sabermetrics in handicapping?

Betting Odds - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament

2011-03-14T04:37:00Z

Las Vegas, Nevada (March 13, 2011) – from RJ Bell of Pregame.com:

Second column equals how much you win risking $100 on team.
Third column equals the exact percentage chance the team has to win tournament according to Las Vegas.

Ohio State	$400	14.3%
Duke	$450	13.0%
Kansas	$460	12.8%
Pittsburgh	$725	8.7%
San Diego St	$1,600	4.2%
North Carolina	$1,700	4.0%
Texas	$2,000	3.4%
Notre Dame	$2,200	3.1%
Florida	$2,200	3.1%
Purdue	$2,200	3.1%
Kentucky	$2,500	2.8%
Syracuse	$2,500	2.8%
Louisville	$2,800	2.5%
Connecticut	$3,200	2.2%
Kansas State	$3,400	2.0%
28 Other Team	$4,000	1.7%
Washington	$4,000	1.7%
BYU	$4,500	1.6%
Wisconsin	$5,100	1.4%
Arizona	$7,200	1.0%
Georgetown	$7,200	1.0%
St Johns	$7,500	0.9%
UCLA	$8,000	0.9%
Michigan State	$9,000	0.8%
West Virginia	$10,100	0.7%
Vanderbilt	$11,500	0.6%
Villanova	$12,500	0.6%
Cincinnati	$14,000	0.5%
UNLV	$15,000	0.5%
Illinois	$15,000	0.5%
Old Dominion	$16,000	0.4%
Temple	$17,500	0.4%
Xavier	$17,500	0.4%
Butler	$20,100	0.4%
Tennessee	$20,100	0.4%
Penn State	$22,500	0.3%
Texas A&M	$22,500	0.3%
Michigan	$22,500	0.3%
Florida State	$27,000	0.3%
Georgia	$30,000	0.2%
George Mason	$37,500	0.2%

Interesting notes:

The four #1 seeds have almost exactly a 50% chance to win (creating an interesting proposition: Would you rather have the four number ones, or every other team?)

Over 98% chance one of the 40 teams listed below will win (giving the last 28 teams less than a 2% chance combined).

No double digit seed has better than a 330-1 shot of winning.

Bracket Tips - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament Advice and Rules

2011-03-13T23:02:00Z

Bracket Tips - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament Rules & Advice

2011-03-13T23:00:00Z

Bracket Tips - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament Rules and Advice

2011-03-13T22:41:00Z

68 men’s college basketball teams begin March Madness on Tuesday, and battle through the next three weekends, culminating with the Final Four.

Over 100 million Americans are expected to take part in the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament brackets, risking an estimated $3 Billion dollars in online and office bracket pools.

Some are big college bball fans who pick their bracket like a science, while others have not watched a game all season, picking by seedings, and flashes of insight gained from SportsCenter, the newspaper, or the color uniforms of the teams.

Tourney Brackets are social and fun, and you can win a lot by only risking a little. These 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament bracket tips are historically proven rules, advice, and bracket strategy that will help novices and the experts alike fill out their brackets.

NCAA Tournament - FIRST ROUND:

Pick no more than two seeds worse than #12.
#16 seeds are 0 for 104 in the modern era (since 1985).
#15 seeds are 4 for 104.
#13 and #14 seeds win only 18% of first round games combined.

Don't be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds: #12 seeds have won at least one game 20 of 22 years.

#9 seeds have won over half their games (54%) vs. #8 seeds.

NCAA Tournament - SECOND ROUND:

Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd round.
#1 seeds win their first two games 88% of the time.

Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
These teams win about half the time in Round Two (#12s are actually win more than 50% in the second round). A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 24 of 26 years. Only once in 26 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen.

Seeds worse than #12 DO NOT win in the 2nd round.
Only 6 of 416 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12.

NCAA Tournament - THIRD ROUND (Sweet 16):

Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
72% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!

Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
24 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced.

NCAA Tournament - FOURTH ROUND (Elite 8):

Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 21 of the last 26 years (meaning that only 5 times on 26 years has there been either zero, three, or four number one seeds)

Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 2 of 104 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8.

NCAA Tournament - FINAL FOUR:

Advance NO team worse than a 6th seed to the Championship game.
Not a single one has made it in the last 25 years.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 22 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

The posting forum will be overflowing with free NCAA tournament picks and predications, and here are some online sportsbooks to check updated tourney lines and odds.

Feedback . . .

What tourney bracket tips, rules, advice, and strategy do you follow?

How many brackets will you personally fill out?

Do you like a 68 or 64 team tournament?

Do you like betting on games, or gambling on NCAA tourney brackets more?

Betting on New York Knicks After Carmelo Anthony Trade

2011-02-22T15:49:00Z

The rumors are finally true – Carmelo Anthony has been traded to the New York Knicks (aka, Carmelo’s taking his talents to Madison Square Garden and teaming up with Amare Stoudemire).

What does this mean to sports bettors?

Current NY Knicks betting odds: 25-1 to win the NBA Title ($10 wins $250). There are currently only eight NBA teams with better odds. (See different future odds ranges at various online sportsbooks)

Major changes to a team during the season typically follows a familiar pattern: at first, the public overreacts to the impact (e.g., perceived good changes are considered better than they really are, perceived bad changes are considered worse than they really are).

At this initial stage, there’s typically value betting against the consensus opinion (betting against the team that had the good thing happen to them, and betting on the team that had the bad team happen to them). The two major reasons for this contrarian approach are: a) the public’s overreaction, resulting in marketplace value; b) The genuine effect of the perceived change is often delayed in the real world. For example, a team losing players will rally around the loss for a few games, often doing better than expected initially. A team gaining players will take a while to integrate the new pieces, often underperforming for an extended period.

In the case of the Carmelo Anthony trade, I believe the New York Knicks will be significantly over-valued for 7 to 10 games, and there will be strong line value betting against.

The Denver Nuggets will not be valued highly at first by the marketplace. Typically this would offer value, but in this case I consider the harsh valuation to be justified – the same team-wide disruption affecting the Knicks will also affect the Nuggets. This is very different than a single injured player. A justified low valuation means I am neutral on them betting-wise.

Though it may be surprising to some readers, I see modest value on the New Jersey Nets in the near-term. There is a perception that they somehow lost out on this trade – but in reality they have not been hurt in any way. If the market decides to think less of them, that misperception will offer value.

Typically, after the initial transition stage, the team that was overvalued becomes undervalued as the marketplace becomes frustrated at their expectations not being reached; this is typically about the same time the player integration issues work themselves out. The combination of less regard in the marketplace plus upward trending performance equates to value betting on.

This will likely not be the case with the Knicks. Yes, the marketplace will become frustrated, and the new players will eventually start to gel – but the general overvaluation of New York teams combined with the general overvaluation of marquee players like Carmelo and Stoudemire rarely allow for significant value on such teams. After the initial stage, I will likely be only neutral on the Knicks.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, will likely offer great value in the mid-term. The marketplace will become frustrated as the team tries to gel, but there will be no big-city nor marquee bias unnaturally inflating public perception; as long as the coach can keep the team motivated, their perceived value will hit rock bottom just about the time their new pieces start to play well together – likely offering strong gambling value on the Nuggets after the initial transition stage of this trade.

I expect to see many professional bettors here in Las Vegas and online to ride this pattern with their free picks.

Carmelo Anthony Trade Details:

In addition to Anthony, the New York Knicks receive: Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman, and Corey Brewer (from Timberwolves)

Denver Nuggets receive: Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinaire, Timofey Mozgov, Knicks 2014 first-round pick, Warriors 2012 and 2013 second-round picks, and $3 million in cash.

Additionally, Knicks are sending Eddy Curry and Anthony Randolph to Minnesota.

CONVERSATION:

Do you agree with the “zig-zag” theory of team disruption (underperform and public overvaluation of “good changes” initially, become frustrated and undervalue around when the good things start to happen).

Would you want Carmelo Anthony on your team?

NFL Combine Betting Odds - 2011

2011-02-21T17:22:00Z

NBA All-Star Game Odds - 2011

2011-02-20T00:30:00Z

60th annual NBA All-Star Game will be broadcast live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles - Sunday on TNT. 8:00 PM ET is the start time.

2011 NBA All-Star Game Betting Lines and Odds:

Eastern Conference -1.5 over Western Conference

Over/Under is 268.5 (updated online and Vegas odds)

All-Star Game MVP Odds:

LeBron James (East) 5/1
Kobe Bryant (West) 5/1
Derrick Rose (East) 6/1
Kevin Durant (West) 15/2
Dwyane Wade (East) 10/1
Dwight Howard (East) 10/1
Carmelo Anthony (West) 10/1
Amare Stoudemire (East) 12/1
Blake Griffin (West) 12/1

You can get even more player betting props with leading online sportsbooks.

Western Conference All-Star Game Starters:

Kobe Bryant (Lakers) Leading All Star vote-getter
Kevin Durant (Thunder) NBA's leading scorer
Tim Duncan (Spurs) 13th straight All-Star game
Chris Paul (Hornets)
Carmelo Anthony (Nuggets)

Eastern Conference All-Star Game Starters:

Dwight Howard (Magic) – 2^nd leading AllStar vote-getter
LeBron James (Heat) Two-time All-Star game MVP
Dwyane Wade (Heat) 2010 All-Star MVP
Amare Stoudemire (Knicks)
Derrick Rose (Bulls) First All-Star game start

Last year the East won 141-139.

Visit the forums for free picks and predictions on the 2011 NBA All-Star game.

CONVERSATION:

Do you think there’s gambling value when basketball’s best meet in the 2011 All-Star Game? Many dismiss such games – but many Las Vegas professional bettors find great value with games in which motivation is the deciding factor.

Does Kobe play harder being at home in Los Angeles? If so, does that mean there’s betting value with the Western Conference as the underdog?

Vegas Take on Lakers Loss to Cavs

2011-02-17T07:00:00Z

Las Vegas, Nevada (2/17/2011) – The Lakers lost a shocking game to the Cavs last night, and RJ Bell of Pregame.com breaks it down from the Las Vegas perspective.

Lakers were 11.5-point favorites at Cleveland.

NBA teams have been favored by 11.5-points or more 52 times this season, winning 47 and losing only 5.

Lakers have accounted for 3 of these losses:
02/16/2011: Lost at Cavs (11.5-point favorites)
01/28/2011: Lost hosting Kings (13-point favorites)
12/21/2010: Lost hosting Bucks (12-point favorites)

Orlando Magic have accounted for the other 2 losses:
11/12/2010: Lost hosting Raptors (14-point favorites)
01/24/2011: Lost hosting Pistons (12-point favorites)

No team other than the Lakers or the Magic has lost as a 11.5-point or greater favorite this season.

Before last night, only 3 NBA teams have been double digit road favorites (and they were 3-0).

--

ATTRIBUTION: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

MEDIA AVAILABILITY: RJ Bell is one of the most professional and compelling on-air Las Vegas experts. Email him directly at rjbell@pregame.com to book an appearance.

TWITTER: Follow all of RJ Bell's news making releases at www.Twitter.com/RJinVegas

RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes' recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called "a true insider" by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick, ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, Yahoo, CNN.com and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, New York Times, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. Pregame.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.

###

O.J. Simpson NOT Beaten in Prison (Real Story)

2011-02-16T15:24:00Z

Reports where widespread recently that O.J. Simpson was beaten Lovelock Correctional Center in Nevada prison in racially motivated incident - including details like "bloody pulp" and three weeks in the prison infirmary. Simpon has now reportedly "laughed his ass off" the supposed attack from skinheads, confirming there's no truth to the story.

Gambling connection: I won a bet from a friend way back when that O.J. would be found not guilty.

CONVERSATION: What was your true emotion when you first heard O.J had been beaten?

Irina Shayk, Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Model, Bent Over & Topless

2011-02-15T14:59:00Z

New 2011 Sports Illustrated swimsuit cover model, Irian Shayk - here's the pictures:

SI Model Irina Shayk Bent Over (Picture)

SI Model Irina Shayk Topless (Picture)

SI Model Irina Shayk in Bikini (Picture)

Sports Betting connection? She's from Sports Illustrated!

CONVERSATION: Rate Irina Shayk on a scale of 1 to 10 . . .

2011 Grammy Award Winners - What Were the Betting Odds?

2011-02-14T16:44:00Z

What were the betting odds on the 2011 Grammy Award winners?

Album of the Year:

WINNER: The Suburbs - Arcade Fire +650

Favorite?
Recovery – Eminem -400

Record of the Year

WINNER: Need You Now - Lady Antebellum +250

Favorite?
Love The Way You Lie - Eminem (feat. Rihanna) +125

Song of the Year

WINNER: Need You Now - Lady Antebellum +275

Favorite?
F*** You - Cee Lo Green +200

Best New Artist

WINNER: Esperanza Spalding +2200

Favorite?
Justin Bieber -225

CONVERSATION: Does this make you want to bet the dogs at the Grammys next year?

53rd GRAMMY Awards Betting Odds – 2011

2011-02-12T20:42:00Z

Betting odds for the 2011 Grammy Awards . . .

Grammy odds to win Album of the Year:

The Suburbs - Arcade Fire +650

Recovery – Eminem -400

Need You Now - Lady Antebellum +1600

The Fame Monster - Lady Gaga +600

Teenage Dream - Katy Perry +1200

Grammy odds to win Record of the Year

Nothin' on You - B.o.B (Feat. Bruno Mars) +1200

Love The Way You Lie - Eminem (feat. Rihanna) +125

F*** You - Cee Lo Green +1200

Empire State Of Mind - Jay-Z & Alicia Keys +150

Need You Now - Lady Antebellum +250

Grammy odds to win Song of the Year

Beg Steal Or Borrow - Ray LaMontagne +500

F*** You - Cee Lo Green +200

The House That Built Me - Miranda Lambert +450

Love The Way You Lie - Eminem (feat. Rihanna) +400

Need You Now - Lady Antebellum +275

Grammy odds to win Best New Artist

Justin Bieber -225

Drake +450

Florence & The Machine +275

Mumford & Sons +900

Esperanza Spalding +2200

Remember, odds on things like the Gammy Awards vary great between sportsbooks – see a list of trusted books at www.PregameAction.com

CONVERSATION: Do you see any GRAMMY bets you like?

Picture of Michael Jordan Practicing with Bobcats!

2011-02-11T01:34:00Z

Michael Jordan practiced with the Charlotte Bobcats today.

Here's a picture of Jordan at practice:

CONVERSATION: Would you be excited if Micheal Jordan attempted a comeback with the Bobcats?

Lindsay Lohan White Dress Worn To Court (Pictures)

2011-02-11T01:17:00Z

The white dress worn to court by Lindsay Lohan has caused quite a stir. Here are the pictures.

Lindsay Lohan White Dress Picture #1

Lindsay Lohan White Dress Picture #2

CONVERSATION: Do you find Lindsay Lohan MORE or LESS hot once you knew for sure she was nuts?