Betting Odds - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament

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Betting Odds - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament

Las Vegas, Nevada (March 13, 2011) – from RJ Bell of Pregame.com:

Second column equals how much you win risking $100 on team.
Third column equals the exact percentage chance the team has to win tournament according to Las Vegas.

Ohio State   

$400

14.3%

Duke   

$450

13.0%

Kansas   

$460

12.8%

Pittsburgh   

$725

8.7%

San Diego St   

$1,600

4.2%

North Carolina   

$1,700

4.0%

Texas   

$2,000

3.4%

Notre Dame   

$2,200

3.1%

Florida   

$2,200

3.1%

Purdue   

$2,200

3.1%

Kentucky   

$2,500

2.8%

Syracuse   

$2,500

2.8%

Louisville   

$2,800

2.5%

Connecticut   

$3,200

2.2%

Kansas State   

$3,400

2.0%

28 Other Team   

$4,000

1.7%

Washington   

$4,000

1.7%

BYU   

$4,500

1.6%

Wisconsin   

$5,100

1.4%

Arizona   

$7,200

1.0%

Georgetown   

$7,200

1.0%

St Johns   

$7,500

0.9%

UCLA   

$8,000

0.9%

Michigan State   

$9,000

0.8%

West Virginia   

$10,100

0.7%

Vanderbilt   

$11,500

0.6%

Villanova   

$12,500

0.6%

Cincinnati   

$14,000

0.5%

UNLV   

$15,000

0.5%

Illinois   

$15,000

0.5%

Old Dominion   

$16,000

0.4%

Temple   

$17,500

0.4%

Xavier   

$17,500

0.4%

Butler   

$20,100

0.4%

Tennessee   

$20,100

0.4%

Penn State   

$22,500

0.3%

Texas A&M   

$22,500

0.3%

Michigan   

$22,500

0.3%

Florida State   

$27,000

0.3%

Georgia   

$30,000

0.2%

George Mason   

$37,500

0.2%


Interesting notes:

The four #1 seeds have almost exactly a 50% chance to win (creating an interesting proposition: Would you rather have the four number ones, or every other team?)

Over 98% chance one of the 40 teams listed below will win (giving the last 28 teams less than a 2% chance combined).

No double digit seed has better than a 330-1 shot of winning.
  • True odds are closer to 50/50 on a 1 seed winning, going by log5 analysis

  • Getting +148 on that prop has a bit of an overlay... and I still think it is at +138

  • Pinnacle must have read this as they dropped to -156 :) So with a .20 cent comeback the math is basically the same, except Pinnacle was behind the curve a little.

  • Pinny has "will a #1 seed win the tourney" Yes is -167/No +148 which means there is a 61.17% chance a #1 seed wins according to them.... and they are the sharpest book in the world