How the Pros Are Betting Super Bowl XLIV

Super Bowl Arbitrage:

An interesting phenomenon happens each Super Bowl: the money line odds for the game (i.e., no point spread consideration, all that matters is which team wins) are significantly skewed downward. Typically, there's a standard conversation between point spreads and money lines. For example, if a team is favored by -3, the money line would be in the range of -155. But for the Super Bowl, due to the fact that a disproportioned number of casual bettors want to "take a shot" at the big underdog payoff, the money line is cheaper than any other game of the year. For Super Bowl XLIV, the Colts, as 5.5-point favorites, would typically have a money line of -240. The actual money line is -210! Some pro bettors, understanding that money lines are mis-priced for the Super Bowl, will bet the favorite on the money line; and, as a hedge, the underdog on the point  spread . . . creating an arbitrage! The casual fan won't want to do that, but if you want to bet like a pro, go point spread route if you like the underdog; and if you like the favorite, go with the money line.

Numbers below assume professional level shopping for best numbers.

Bet: #1 Colts on moneyline at -200: $440 to win $220
Bet #2: Saints: 220 to win 200 at +5.5

Saints win are expected to win 30%
The above bets would be MINUS $72 in this case.

Colts are expected to win SU but not ATS 20%
The above bets would be PLUS $84 in this case.

Colts are expected to win and cover 50%
The above bets would break even in this case.

So . . . 

$12 positive expectation.
$640 in action, meaning
1.9% return.
Annualized return (money only held one day) = 684% return

Note: as the line goes up or down this week, it doesn't really change the math (most likely the ML would go up or down accordingly). All things equal, I recommend playing the ML as late as possible Sunday (after the public has made their gameday bets).