Toledo Point-Shaving: Vegas Odds and Details!

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Toledo Point-Shaving: Vegas Odds and Details!

Bettors won 11 of 17 games, including 7 of 8 close games
At least 10-times the amount reported was likely bet
Big money won 7 of 7 football games

Las Vegas, Nevada (May 6, 2009) - Six former Toledo football/basketball players were charged on Wednesday with conspiracy to commit sports bribery. Two Detroit-area businessmen allegedly wagered over $400,000 on 17 cited basketball games during the 2005/2006 season.

RJ Bell of has researched the betting outcomes of those 17 basketball games. Those betting AGAINST Toledo won 11 of 17 games against the spread. Keep in mind that point-shaving typically involves betting against the corrupt team.

Especially interesting is the fact that Toledo was 1-7 against the spread in games that ended LESS THAN 4 points away from the spread. RJ Bell of said: "In close games corrupt players are especially aggressive in affecting a game's outcome in the final minutes when the betting result hangs in the balance."

Also of note is that Toledo, when favored by more than four-points, was 1-5 against the spread. The typical pattern of point-shaving is for a heavily favored team to win the game but not by enough to cover the point spread. Corrupt players rationalize that no one is really hurt by such corruption since the game's outcome is not affected.

The February 4, 2006 game versus Central Michigan yielded an extreme result: Toledo was favored by 15 points and lost by 16 points. It is quite rare for the spread to be off by a margin as large as 31 points.

Though approximately $400,000 is reported to have been bet, RJ Bell of estimates that at least 10-times that amount was wagered by those with direct knowledge of the corruption. "Serious bettors are usually highly networked. And though a small group executes the actual fix, each tells a few friends, who tell and few friends, and soon hundreds are bettors are putting significant money down based upon knowledge of the corruption."

Las Vegas math fully supports the football allegations. Movements in the point spread are responses to lopsided amounts of money bet on one team over another. As previously reported by RJ Bell of April 2007, during the 2005 Toledo football regular season, point spreads on Toledo's games moved significantly (two points or more) on 7 occasions - and ALL 7 TIMES the big money gamblers won against the opening point spread.

If the allegations are true, these are a few incidents of many. RJ Bell of said: "Academic studies indicate that over 5% of college basketball teams favored by double digits engage in some form of corrupt game manipulation."

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of For follow-up questions, or media appearances - email:

RJ Bell of is the only sports bettor on Forbes' recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called "a true insider" by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick,, , Yahoo, and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, LA Times,, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.


  • Good morning slammer, as of Saturday morning it was here. It was Thursdays show

    Starts at around the 26 minute mark

  • where's that interview prospectus?

  • Hi RJ, I just listened to your interview with Dan Patrick. Kudos. your knowledge on the subject blew him away. I think all these guys are most happy when the guest is as prepared as you were.

    Interesting topic from the standpoint as you portrayed it as to the reasons these kids are vulnerable and the amount of point shaving that goes on. I like everyone else have herd the rumors over the years, even in the NFL, there is one that has floated around up here for years regarding a Bills QB in the 90s. I also herd one guy speak as if it was common knowledge that a Steelers QB ensured an opponents money line win in a super bowl. All a little more than I can believe, more urban legend than anything I have never herd any proof I would consider conviction worthy in the pro's. But the way you break down the Toledo scandal is very convincing from a numbers and probability standpoint.

    Very well done, that kind of media appearance has to drive people to PREGAME