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The smart bet on the Super Bowl is ...

Robert Walker, who runs the sports and race books for the MGM Mirage casinos in Las Vegas, confirmed what we had been hearing lately and that's that the money line cash has been pouring in on the Giants for the Super Bowl.

There are literally hundreds of ways to bet on the Super Bowl when you consider all the prop bets -- what player scores the first touchdown, which team scores last in the first half, Plaxico Buress' receptions vs. Randy Moss -- but the two most common involve the point spread and the money line. At the MGM Mirage casinos, the line today had the Patriots favored to win by 12. The money line was Patriots minus-450 and the Giants plus-350. These can change at any time.

With the point spread, New England has to win by more than 12 points for New England bettors to win. In addition, there's a vigorish to be paid of 10 percent. So in practice, the New England backer has to risk 110 clam shells to win 100 -- and remember, the Pats have to do it by better than 12 points. A Giants backer wins even if New York loses but by fewer than 12 points. If the Pats win by exactly 12, the bet is a push, meaning a tie.

The money line requires that a bettor simply pick the winner -- there are no points involved -- but will either lay odds or get them. Let's assume a money line on the Patriots-Giants at minus-450 on the Patriots and plus-350 on the Giants. That means a Patriots backer has to risk 450 clam shells to win 100. Conversely, the Giants backer risks 100 clam shells to win 350.

"With all the Giants fans coming out here for the game, they don't just want their team to cover, they want the Giants to win," Walker said. "If the Giants cover and lose, they're not going to be happy."

As a result, the money line cash is coming in at an enormously high 30-to-1 in favor of the Giants. Of course, we still have more than 48 hours until kickoff and a lot more money to be heard from.

"The best case for (the bookmakers) is for the Patriots to win but not cover," Walker said. And, in fact, that what the Patriots did in the last two Super Bowls where they were the favorite against Carolina and Philadelphia.

What this means is that even though it's a risk to have to put up so much money, there is what the gambling folks call "value" in taking the Patriots in a money line wager. Because as a 12-point favorite, they should be laying 7-to-1 rather the current 4 1/2-to-1. Even if the spread were only 10 points, such a line should translate to 6-to-1 (against) for the favorite on the money line.

Sports gambling expert R.J. Bell, who runs the Pregame.com wagering information service in Vegas, says the best way to tackle such a circumstance is with a wagering arbitrage. It is NOT risk free but offers a theoretical player edge. In Bell's example, if a bettor can find the Patriots with a money line of $425 and the Giants getting 11 1/2 points (both very possible with a little shopping), Bell calculates that there is a positive expectation of 5 percent for the bettor who takes the Patriots for 850 clam shells (to win 200) and hedges that wager by taking the Giants for 220 shells and getting 11 1/2 or better (to win 200). By Bell's calculation, the prospect of the Giants winning outright is a 13 percent possibility, in which case our hypothetical bettor loses 650 shells (boo-hoo). There's a 50 percent chance, the Patriots win AND cover for a loss of 20 shells (oh well). And a 37 percent chance that the Patriots win but the Giants cover for a gain of 400 shells (yippee).

As for me, the season record against the spread is 28-26-2. The prevailing spread is Patriots minus-12. The way I see it, New England makes history but the Giants are not embarrassed. Pick: Giants, getting 12.