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Key letdown situations are explored from the College hoops card, and all four NBA games are broken down, with Pregame Pros Mike Hook and Dan Bebe! The guys need YOUR help - listen to the show, and hop into the forum thread to answer the question of the week! It's time to get interactive with Tuesday's "Today in Sports Betting!" (February 1, 2011)
WE NEED FEEDBACK ON THIS ONE!
Can't watch the show, never have actually. I'm always Workin and never have a chance, but do have a comment on all the fuss for people that are mad about all the spots where key letdown spots didn't happen like last night with Texas for example...,,It's called gambling for a reason and nothing is matter a fact, EVER. When you bet on these key letdown spots it's important to remember that more times than not your betting on a lesser team to cover against the better team, so take that into account when your figuring how likely that is to happen. The fact that good cappers are on under dogs just means they think it's a "good chance" they will cover. "Chance" is the key word, so no need in getting bent out of shape, when the cookie doesn't crumble your way...
hey dan. the bit.ly link on pregamenow isn't work. says account suspended. using direct link on this page to listen.
Cause people like stuff to be easy, and they think a team winning 75% of their games will always beat a team ATS winning 50% or less of the time. Spread be damned. In the end players that use this mentality through out a season will lose money. The better team does not always or even comes close to always winning ATS. Hey but what do I know I've only been doing this over 20 years.
Listening to the NBA part of the show now.
Peace
Doc
I used to paint the broadest strokes with huge oversimplifications...
Wrote in one your daily blogs about a month ago how I thought you could win long term by always backing the Celtics and fading the Kings, haha. I feel like my old theory on Boston was the definition of what you mentioned in your podcast. The growth I've made in the short-term (1-2months), and prob for many others who begin to get serious and put in the daily hours, has been exponential. Last night for example: took all underdogs in Nets, Grizzlies, Bobcats and went 2-1... at the beginning of the NBA season I can guarantee you that I would have looked at same card and taken all favorites (leaning Nuggets, Magic, Jazz and lost money on the night).
Celtics are a team that I have found success with lately (backed em at Portland, faded at Phnx, and capitalized in LA). Completely agree w/ you about tonight though, don't imagine a letdown spot for Boston on both bookends of the Lakers game: expect them to finish road trip with a cover.
Also heard you mention something about turning off ESPN and picking up a book: does this mean your going to give MoneyBall (Michael Lewis) a shot? LOL
I don't think this is a "Favorite won" rant. I think this is more of a "a lot of cappers took the less 'sexy' team and lost" rant. It's also not that they lost, it's that Texas absolutely destroyed A&M and A&M never had a chance.
As you alluded to Dan, it's easy TODAY to sit and say "wow, that was such an easy game to cap, how could anyone have taken A&M." As Mike said, if A&M had won, there would be no thread (as there aren't for all of the consensus winners). But when you see a blowout and you see so many cappers on A&M, the questions will come.
Yesterday's result is just what plants seeds of doubts in people's mind about handicapping and following pros. But as Griff said, IT'S GAMBLING.
Paying to get sports picks is a beast of thing. Normally when you make a purchase, you are exactly what you wanted, you know it works, you have no problems with it, and you are fine with spending your hard earned money on it because you just got what you wanted. But when you pay for capper's plays, a very large percentage of the time you will not be receiving what you want, which is a winning play. So then it's "I just wasted my money, plus the money I wagered on the game, and I didn't get a god damn thing to show for it!" I guess it's just the nature of the game and most people don't understand that. But then when you throw in a large number of people who are supposed to be the best of the best and they all come to the same conclusion on a play and somehow fail miserably, it makes it that much worse. Maybe compare it to somebody paying mathmaticians who are supposed to be the best, and who they are trying to learn from, to solve a problem for them, and then they not only come up with the wrong answer, but it turns out they weren't even close to the right answer, which makes it worse in their minds. (of course there is always a right answer in math, but it was the first metaphorical example that popped in my head.) So maybe the real question should be "Why all the post-fuss about the initial fuss?" Yeah. Sink your brain into that one for a minute.
Fixed the dead TiSB link -- just tweeted a new one!
Wow, GREAT response so far...
What actually put the idea for this concept in my head was a remark that a new-ish poster made in my NBA blog back on Sunday...
When the Hornets went up on Phoenix by 10 points, he sort of flippantly noted that "the lesson to be learned here is to take the better team.."
Of course, Phoenix went on to win that game, and it just hit me that you always hear people say, "Take the better team..." after an easy favorite covers, but when an underdog covers, you very rarely see that same RISING UP of voices.
It's an interesting phenomenon, and a big reason why I believe the "old school" of capping was based far too largely on emotions and not enough on long term winning. This is a great thread so far - let's keep it going!
look at Gamers41, trying to tell it like it is...
Side note - who likes the idea of an "Interactive Day" of the show moving forward?
If a person says something like "Take the better team..." then they have zero business being in the world of sports betting. Apparently they don't understand the purpose of a point spread, amongst numerous other things they should learn before putting money down on a play.
Oh, and when I say "old school" please don't misconstrue my point -- I'm talking about OLD school, not older new school. I just think this is an interesting topic.
Haha, Hags, no, I just leave the TV off this week, but no time to read for me! :)
Oh, and the new podcast link is:
http://bit.ly/iegJkF
Tweet it, tell a friend, let's try to get 10 new listeners today!
Trying, just trying. If you read Sac's post in the "Why did so many people have A&M" thread on the forums, he articulates my thoughts on the matter a lot better than I could (as I said he would!).