Marc Lawrence

SUPER PROPS

Marc Lawrence — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 09:27:01 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

Super Bowl XLVI in
Indianapolis kicks off February 5 when New England meets the New York with the
Patriots looking to avenge losses to the Giants in Super Bowl XVII, and also a
24-20 defeat at Foxboro this season in a game which snapped a 20-game regular
season home win streak by New England.

Aside from betting the game
itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur
gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet more often this time of the
year than first-timers at a gay rally.

It’s important to remember
that when betting Super Bowl props the oddsmaker holds a huge edge as many of
the props carry as much of a 40-cent ‘juice’ edge in his favor. Thus, it’s critically important to make sure
you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking
the plunge.

In addition, the props are
designed to create more action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to
spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want
10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major
decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports
at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Furthermore, it’s important to realize that props are set for the
public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets),
most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay, this is the only NFL game of the year where
he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The
professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public
masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the
smart money.

Here are some “tips” on some of the more popular propositions when
it comes to prop wagering on this year’s Super Bowl.

1. The
Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that
fans love betting on is the Coin Toss.
It’s fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off. It has also seen
the NFC winning the pre-game coin flip each of the last 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing.
The odds on the NFC winning this year’s coin flip: 50/50.

2. We’ll Take The Ball

In addition, similar props
abound on which team will receive the ball first. The Giants are currently -180.

The reason being, as reported by Joe Fortenbaugh of NationalFootballPost.com is “On Sept 7, 2008, New England played the Kansas City
Chiefs, won the toss and elected to receive. That was the day Tom Brady
was lost for season with a torn ACL. Since that day, the Patriots
have played 65 games - playoffs included - and won the coin toss 28 times. On
all 28 occasions, New England elected to defer their choice to the second half
and started the game by kicking off.”

3. Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all
the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 24 times
in 45 previous Super Bowl games.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy
seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven
MVP’s.

New England’s Tom Brady and New York’s Eli Manning lead the charge
this year. In head-to-head proposition
competition the Hilton favors Brady by 11 yards over Manning. You also have to lay an extra -$1.10 more on
Brady than Manning in total TD passes for the contest.

4. When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the
over/under number of tackles it’s important to know that sacks are not recorded
as a tackle.

In addition, propositions
involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

5. Team Scoring Tendencies

Certain edges can be found when it
comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the
linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of
quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played
this season for both squads. Note the
Giants have played 19 games this campaign; the Patriots 18:

1Q – New York: 80-81 /
4.21-4.26

1Q – New England: 99-86 /
5.50-4.78

2Q – New York:
135-124 / 8.53–5.37

2Q – New England: 179-100 /
9.94-5.56

3Q – New York: 72-79 /
3.79-4.16

3Q – New England: 151-63 /
8.39-3.50

4Q – New York: 188-145 /
9.89-7.63

4Q – New England: 152-122/
8.44-6.78

Notice that both teams’
defense has been its stingiest in the 3Q this season.

On the flip side, the
Giants’ offense has performed at its best in the final stanza, whereas the
Pats’ attack tends to rev up in the 2Q of games.

Incidentally, New England’s
defense has been en fuego in the 3Q of its last 10 games, allowing just 20
points. The Patriots have also not
allowed a point in any of their last three games during the final quarter.

6. Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to
score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVI is New England TE Rob Gronkowski,
high ankle sprain and all. He led the
Patriots in touchdowns with 17 this season.

Behind Gronkowski is New York
WR Victor Cruz. New England’s other TE,
Aaron Hernandez and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis make up the leading four
candidates.

Over the previous 45 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade,
scoring the first touchdown 18 times. Green
Bay WR Jordy Nelson found the end zone first for the Packers against the
Steelers in Super Bowl XLV last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores.
Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and
defensive players two times each.

7. Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props
with other sports is another popular prop.

One personality prop that fans are sure to be attracted to is Eli
Manning completions versus LeBron James points. Manning goes up against the NFL’s 31st
ranked pass defense while James and the Miami Heat will be hosting a Toronto
Raptors defense that is surrendering less than 95 PPG on the season.

Meanwhile in a Beantown prop, Tom Brady’s touchdown tosses are
paired against total team goals scored by the Boston Bruins in their game
against the Washington Capitals.

One of our favorites, though, is who will the Super Bowl MVP thank
first - with the choices being Teammates, Coach, Family, God, Owner or no
one.

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the chances of
acknowledging owner Robert Kraft in memory of his recently departed wife
Myra. If you like the Giants it’s likely
the winner will acknowledge his teammates.

One thing is for sure. It’s
a good thing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos will be watching from the
sidelines. Otherwise God would have been
an odds-on favorite.

2012 College Football Conference Realignment

Marc Lawrence — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:37:28 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

As we begin preparation for the 20th anniversary edition of
the PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL HANDICAPPERS YEARBOOK magazine, the wild and wacky world
of College Football moves to the 2012 season with plenty of changes in
order. Here is your guide to what lies
ahead.

Aside from a highly anticipated BCS revision, and a few new
rules changes, the first task at hand is sorting through the realignment of the
conferences.

Listed below is a listing of addresses in which conference
teams will call home in the 2012 season, with pertinent notes.

ACC

Atlantic Division

Boston College

Clemson

Florida State

Maryland

NC State

Wake Forest

Coastal Division

Duke

Georgia Tech

Miami Florida

North Carolina

Virginia

Virginia Tech

No changes in 2012. Pittsburgh and Syracuse will join the
conference in 2014.

BIG EAST

Cincinnati

Connecticut

Louisville

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

South Florida

Syracuse

Gone: West Virginia to the Big 12. Soon to be gone: Syracuse and Pittsburgh to
the ACC in 2014.

Coming soon: Boise St, Houston, San Diego St, SMU and UCF in
2013. (Nothing says Big East like San Diego State)

BIG TEN

Leaders Division

Illinois

Indiana

Ohio State

Penn State

Purdue

Wisconsin

Legends Division

Iowa

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

Nebraska

Northwestern

No changes in 2012.

BIG 12

Baylor

Iowa St

Kansas

Kansas State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

TCU

Texas

Texas Tech

West Virginia

Additions: TCU and West Virginia.

Gone: Missouri and Texas A&M, both to the SEC.

CONFERENCE USA

East Division

East Carolina

Marshall

Memphis

Southern Mississippi

UAB

UCF

West Division

Houston

Rice

SMU

Tulsa

Tulane

UTEP

No changes for 2012.

Soon departing: Houston, SMU and UCF to the Big East in
2013.

Coming soon: will form a new conference with the remaining
members of the Mountain West in 2013.

INDEPENDENTS

Army

BYU

Navy

Notre Dame

No changes in 2012.

MAC

East Division

Akron

Bowling Green

Buffalo

Kent State

Miami Ohio

Ohio U

Temple

West Division

Ball State

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

Massachusetts*

Northern Illinois

Toledo

Western Michigan

New in 2012: Massachusetts.
*Note: division realignment pending

MOUNTAIN WEST

Boise St

Wyoming

San Diego St

Air Force

Colorado St

UNLV

New Mexico

Nevada

Fresno St

Hawaii

New additions: Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada from the WAC.

Gone: TCU to the Big 12.

Soon to be departed: Boise State and San Diego State to the
Big East in 2013.

Coming Soon: merger with Conference USA in 2013.

PAC 12

North Division

California

Oregon

Oregon State

Stanford

Washington

Washington State

South Division

Arizona

Arizona State

Colorado

UCLA

USC

Utah

No changes in 2102.

SEC

East Division

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Missouri

South Carolina

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

West Division

Alabama

Arkansas

Auburn

LSU

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Texas A&M

New additions: Missouri and Texas A&M from the Big 12.

Sun Belt

Arkansas State

Florida Atlantic

Florida International

Louisiana-Lafayette

Louisiana-Monroe

Middle Tennessee State

North Texas

Troy

South Alabama

Western Kentucky

New addition: South Alabama.

Note: South Alabama Jaguars will play a full Sun Belt
schedule in 2012 but will not be eligible to win the SBC title until 2013.

WAC

Idaho

Louisiana Tech

New Mexico State

San Jose State

Texas State

Utah State

UTSA

New additions: Texas State and UTSA (University of Texas-San
Antonio).

Gone: Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada to the MWC in
2012.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

Marc Lawrence — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 16:45:07 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

After expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. And while a Wild Card team has done so only seven times in Super Bowl history, five such winners have been crowned since 1997.

Last year witnessed the Packers hauling home the hardware. In 2007 it was the NY Giants, in 2005 the Pittsburgh Steelers, in 2000 the Baltimore Ravens and in 1997 the Denver Broncos.

Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? With both of the No.1 seeds owning the league’s worst defenses, a strong case might certainly be made for New Orleans to continue in red-hot mode. Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy. All results are since 1990 and are ATS, unless noted otherwise…

Top Seeds Generally Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 19-2 SU and 15-6 ATS, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS versus a foe off a spread win of more than 13 points in its Wild Card game.

Top seeds from the AFC have struggled, going 12-9 SU and 8-13 ATS, including 5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back wins.

Success Breeds Success

Rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 38-9 SU and 29-17-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 7-34 SU and 15-24-1 ATS in this round.

Put one up against the other – an 11-plus win home team against a losing team last year – and these hosts respond with aplomb, going an eye-opening 16-0 SU and 12-3-1 ATS.

Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky, especially if they grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 15-36 SU and 20-29-1 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a disgusting 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs.

There you have it. A trio of time-tested theories to help guide you through the NFL Divisional Round games this week. Do the math, figure them out and play accordingly. The exercise should help expand your mind and your bank account. Good luck as always.

NFL Wild Card Concepts

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:52:55 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs can be a bit tricky.

The knee-jerk reaction is to back home teams. After all, they have been a solid-moneymaker, going 161-131-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved faster than an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.

A closer look finds home teams just 108-98-5 ATS (52.4%) since 1990 and, even worse, 55-57-1 ATS (48.1%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

The key is breaking the playoffs down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the linemakers have made the visiting teams more attractive (read: value-laden) than ever before.

Let’s break down opening round games involving unrested, No. 3 or lower seeded teams, in opening round playoff games with these three time-tested theories. Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 20-10-1 ATS - including 0-2 ATS last year.

Better yet, dress them up as dogs and they improve to 14-5 ATS.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-36-1 ATS – including 3-1 ATS last year.

Bring these highwaymen in off a double-digit division loss and they drop to 2-11 ATS.

ATS Diabetes

NFL Wild Card teams off a season ending blowout win in which they beat the spread by 10 or points suffer from more than a sugar rush, going just 21-33-1 during this round – including 2-0 ATS last year.

These same unappealing teams are even less palatable when playing off a straight up underdog win, going 4-16-1 ATS.

Notice that all three of these Wild Card angles defied each theory in a major way last season. Will they revert back to form or continue their stubborn ways in 2011? Stay tuned.

There you have it. I’ll be back next week with a peek at the Divisional Round playoff matchups.

Good luck as always.

Stats Matter – A Guide to Handicapping the 2011 Bowl Games

Marc Lawrence — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 18:32:11 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

It’s unanimous. Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing – preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

With the 2011 College Bowl season now upon us, it’s time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist, one simple element is often overlooked and that is how a team is performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game. In other words, are they winning or losing that overall yardage on the playing field.

As handicappers we know better than most the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray, it’s critically important to look inside the patient and check out his vitals before rendering a diagnosis.

Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall and most recently this season, along with other notes of significance…

Air Force 8-4 overall

Alabama 12-0 overall / held 7 foes to season low yards

Arizona St 6-6 overall

Arkansas 7-5 overall / 1-4 away

Arkansas St 9-3 overall / 6-0 L6

Auburn 5-7 overall

Baylor 10-2 overall

Boise St 11-1 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

BYU 9-3 overall / 8-0 L8

California 8-4 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

Cincinnati 6-5-1 overall / 1-3-1 L5

Clemson 10-3 overall / 2-3 L5

Florida 7-5 overall

Florida Intl 5-7 overall / 1-3 L4

Florida St 8-4 overall / held 6 foes to season low yards

Georgia 12-1 overall

Georgia Tech 8-4 overall / 2-4 L6

Houston 11-2 overall / 6-0 away

Illinois 9-3 overall / 1-2 L3

Iowa 6-6 overall / 1-3 L4

Iowa St 5-7 overall / 4-1 L5

Kansas St 3-9 overall / 0-5 L5

La Lafayette 6-6 overall / 0-3 L3

La Tech 7-5 overall / 4-1 L5

Louisville 7-5 overall / 1-3 L4

LSU 9-4 overall / held 5 foes to season low yards

Marshall 4-8 overall / 3-1 L4

Michigan 10-2 overall / 5-0 L5

Michigan St 10-3 overall / held 5 foes to season low yards

Mississippi St 7-5 overall

Missouri 8-4 overall

NC State 6-6 overall / 4-0 L4

Nebraska 7-5 overall / 1-3 L4

Nevada 10-2 overall / 8-0 L8

North Carolina 6-6 overall / 3-1 L4

Northern Illinois 8-5 overall / 4-0 L4

Notre Dame 7-5 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

Ohio St 4-8 overall / 0-5 away

Ohio U 10-3 overall

Oklahoma 9-3 overall

Oklahoma St 10-2 overall

Oregon 11-2 overall

Penn St 8-4 overall

Pittsburgh 6-6 overall

Purdue 5-7 overall

Rutgers 7-5 overall

San Diego St 7-5 overall / 4-1 L5

SMU 7-5 overall

South Carolina 7-5 overall / 3-0 L3

Southern Miss 11-1-1 overall

Stanford 12-0 overall

TCU 7-5 overall

Temple 7-5 overall / 1-4 L5

Texas 8-4 overall / held 6 foes to season low yards

Texas A&M 10-2 overall / 7-0 L7

Toledo 10-2 overall / 7-0 L7

Tulsa 8-4 overall / 7-1 L8

UCLA 5-8 overall

Utah 4-8 overall / 0-4 L4

Utah St 10-2 overall

Vanderbilt 6-6 overall

Virginia 8-3-1 overall

Virginia Tech 9-4 overall

Wake Forest 5-7 overall / 1-6 L7

Washington 5-7 overall / 1-3 L4

West Virginia 9-2-1 overall

Western Michigan 7-5 overall

Wisconsin 10-3 overall / 1-2 L3

Wyoming 5-7 overall / 3-1 L4

Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 570-95-10 ATS - including 32-3 last season - since 1980, it’s crucial to your success when evaluating a team’s chance of winning the yardage wars.

Just another slant when it comes to handicapping the bowl contests. Add it to your arsenal and enjoy the games!

2011 NFC EAST DIVISION

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 16:12:00 GMT

Long considered the 'beast' of all NFL divisions, the NFC East features no less than three Pro Bowl quarterbacks.

The division is also the top-heavy favorite with an average 8.875 'win total' for the season per team. Does this mean all four teams are playoff bound in 2011? That's doubtful, but we just might find three's company by season's end.

No team appeared in more playoff games since 2000 than Philadelphia. The Eagles 19 post-season games tied New England for league honors. Together, the NFC East has combined to play 36 games in the playoffs in the 2000's, easily the best in the league.

These 'beasts' especially rewarded their backers this past decade whenever they went out as road dogs off a SU win, going 71-38-4 ATS, including 29-10-1 when taking six or more points.

While they may beat up on each other, these NFC East creatures of habit certainly command the respect of players alike.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

DALLAS
TEAM THEME: POCKET PRESSURE
Last year's 6-10 backward flip brought the critics out of the closet. It also sent owner Jerry Jones in search of a makeover. Aside from signing Jason Garrett on as the full-time head coach (the Cowboys were 5-3 under Garrett after an inglorious 1-7 start last season), Jones corralled Rex Ryan as his new defensive coordinator. The resulting change finds Dallas switching to a 3-4 attack. "We are going to find a way to get to the quarterback. He's the source of the passing game, as you guys know, and we want to attack him," insists Ryan. "We have the finest pass rusher in football in DeMarcus Ware. We look forward to hitting quarterbacks and getting after them." In addition, Hall of Game quarterback Roger Staubach is sick and tired of pundits casting aspersions and pointing the blame at QB Tony Romo, "He hasn't been the problem. He's done unbelievable. He's right at the top of the NFL as far as a quarterback. We've got a Super Bowl quarterback. With Jason (Garrett) they can be right there in the thick of it this year," said Staubach. We don't disagree.

PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (12/4)

FAST FACT: Dallas is 0-7 ATS as a Monday night favorite of 7 or less points.

NY GIANTS
TEAM THEME: TAKE MY BREATH AWAY
A 10-win season was not enough to earn a pass to the post-season, making it two straight years the Giants have not earned a bonus check. Unlike the heat Tom Coughlin endured after an 8-8 performance in 2009, last year's effort temporarily lowered the flames. A quizzical home loss to the Cowboys (as 12.5-point chalk) signaled the beginning of the end for Big Blue backers when a 6-2 SU start fizzled into a 2-6 ATS finish. They went to work on the draft and came away winners, filling needs with each of their first six picks, with 1st and 2nd-rounders, CB Prince Amukarmara (broken foot, out indefinitely) and DT Marvin Austin, hoping to contrinute. A super-soft schedule to start the season (one winning foe first seven games, and a one-month span of no road games) allows Coughlin plenty of time to take a deep breath and prepare for a demanding agenda to close the campaign. If there's one thing we've learned about this team it's that they know how win take care of business on the road, where they are 24-12 SU and 25-11 ATS in their last three-dozen games as a visitor.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. NY Jets (12/24)

FAST FACT: The Giants are 10-0 ATS as dogs of more than three points vs. AFC East division opposition.

PHILADELPHIA
TEAM THEME: THE PLAN
Andy Reid and the Philadelphia brass planned on being aggressive in free agency once the NFL Lockout was lifted. "Howie (General manager Roseman) and I got the plan together. It's a good, aggressive plan. When they say go, we're ready to go. It's just a matter of that time coming forward. If it happens (training camp) Day 1, that's great," Reid said. "We got a plan for that. Did they ever. The acquisition of eight former Pro Bowlers has completely redesigned the look of this team for the 2011 season ahead. In addition the the free agent signing blitz Philly also managed to address their weakest need - the offensive line - in the NFL draft. They realize they've become the 'Miami Heat of the NFL' and they're lovin' it. If QB Michael Vick lives up to his long-term contract signing, and the free agent signing pan out, they become the team to beat in the NFC. The Packers are on notice, for the time being, at least.

PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (11/13)

FAST FACT: The Eagles are 17-3 SU and ATS as a favorite or dog of less than three points vs. the NFC West since 1995.

WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: AS THE WORLD TURNS
Fortunatley, Mike Shanahan was able to pull the plug on the soap operas in the nation's capitol - namely the Donovan McNabb saga and the Albert Haynesworth nightmare - by disposing of the two immediately after the NFL lockout was lifted. Unfortunately, the melodrama continues in Shanahan's life. And life hasn't been too rosy for Mike lately as his NFL career has taken a huge downward turn of late. That's confirmed by Shanahan's 130-78 SU and 107-94-7 ATS record in games he's coached from 1998-2005 as opposed to his most recent 30-34 SU and 22-39-4 ATS since. And if his hair seems a bit grayer these days, it should. That's because his troops were involved in more close-call games (12 decisions decided by six or less points) than any last year. Fortunately, the Redskins will face 2nd easiest non-division opponent schedule in the league this year. Here's hoping they soon find an alternative to using a 30-year-old quarterback (John Beck) that hasn't thrown a pass in the league in over three years as their starter, or a bonafide retread in Rex Grossman. The bottom line is nothing good happens with this team until its defense mans up. Shanahan is on notice.

PASS

FAST FACT: Shanahan is 0-13 ATS in games off a SU underdog win when facing a sub .600 opponent

2011 AFC NORTH DIVISION PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 15:27:00 GMT

If you've ever wondered why it is Pittsburgh is pretty much a rival to every team in the AFC North, the answer is simple.

Three of the teams have connecting histories. Cincinnati and Cleveland were founded by Paul Brown, while the Baltimore Ravens and the city of Cleveland have their own unique relationship. Only the Steelers, who are older than the original Browns, have no direct history involving Paul Brown.

The AFC North is also the only division in the AFC that does not contain a charter team from the original American Football League.

While tons of history and pedigree abound in this division, it's been the Ravens and Steelers that have dominated of late. With only four losing seasons between the dynamic duo over the last decade, the two have combined to go 240-143-1 SU and 209-166-5 ATS (55.7%) this millennium.

On the flip side, the Bengals and Browns are 134-220-1 SU and 162-183-10 (46.5%) collectively over the same span.

And, for all intents and purposes, it appears there is no changing of the guard looming in the near future.

A word to the wise: teams from this division travel exceptionally well in competitive games, going 33-38 SU and 36-19-6 ATS as road dogs of three or less points since 2000.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: HIP DUO
The AFC's version of Atlanta's dynamic duo of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, Baltimore's terrific twosome of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco have been joined at the hip the last three years. And like the former, John and Joe have been busy winning games and making dough for their backers en route to three straight playoff appearances. Initial concern this season would normally be last year's declining numbers where the offense and defense performed like the economy when they both fell off on both sides of the ball clear across the board. However, the combination of a soft schedule (the league's 2nd easiest, with opponents combining for a 117-139 record last year) and decent draft (backup QB Tyrod Taylor at No. 6 was a steal) should keep the Black Birds resting on their perch for another season. And speaking of this year's agenda, the Ravens' road slate finds them taking on only two foes with winning records last season. That fits like a cape and mask with Harbaugh's gaudy 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS mark in games against losing teams.

PLAY ON: home vs. Pittsburgh (9/11)

FAST FACT: The Ravens are 5-0 SU and ATS home off a win vs. an opponent off a loss under Harbaugh.

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: BUCKLE UP
The roller coaster ride at King's Island Amusement Park outside Cincinnati has nothing on the ups and downs of this team. From last-to-first-to-last place finishes in the AFC North Division each of the last three seasons, the Bengals have added more grey onto the head of Marvin Lewis than jugs of Just For Men could ever handle. Still, a promising offensive draft has transformed this team as it prepares for life after Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco. As a result Lewis believes quarterback Andy Dalton, the team's second-round pick, has a good chance of starting at the beginning of the season. Especially Palmer's trade me-or-else edict delivered during the off-season. "I feel really good about Dalton," Lewis said. "If he ends up being the starter as a rookie, I think he can do that." New offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has raved about Dalton and his strengths. "What impresses me is the location of the throws. He gives his guy a chance to run after the catch," said Gruden. Fortunately the new young cast will face easiest non-division opponent schedule in the league this year as last year's foes were 63-97. Let the ride begin.

PLAY ON: as a dog at home vs. Baltimore (1/1)

FAST FACT: The Bengals are 2-13-1 ATS as HF's under Marvin Lewis after allowing 20 > points.

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: ON THE FRITZ
When Cleveland GM, and former NFL head coach Mike Holmgren, pink-slipped Eric Mangini in favor of Pat Shurmur he had a plan. Along with himself, and with former head coach Dick Jauron added as the new defensive coordinator, Holmgren surrounded Shurmur, the nephew of former Green Bay Packer defensive coordinator Fritz Shurmur, with as much experience as a rookie head coach could possibly be afforded. Shurmur, a four-year letterman at Michigan State and co-captain of the 1988 winning Rose Bowl team, brings 12 years of NFL coaching experience, including the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams last year in their offensive renaissance. That's the good news. The bad news is the NFL lockout could prove especially harmful to promising young quarterback Colt McCoy, of whom Shurmur feels has it. "He's a leader. He's a guy that I think can be the guy to lead our organization, so I'm looking forward to getting to work with him." To no one's surprise Jauron added massive defensive tackle Phil Taylor and pass-rushing end Jabaal Sheard. Three straight 1-5 division finishes look to be a thing of the past, sooner than later.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oakland (10/16)

FAST FACT: Cleveland is 1-37 SU off a loss vs. greater than .666 opponents since returning to the NFL.

PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: THE COLOR OF MONEY
Remaining true to their colors, the Steelers selected defensive players with four of their first five picks in this year's NFL draft. It's been the benchmark of this team dating back to the 70's and the Steel Curtain defense. Many agree the 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers were the greatest team in NFL history. They didn't just dominate, they'd intimidate. They went 17-2 that year when they allowed 9.3 PPG during the regular season, with the losses by a total of 10 points. It's by design that Pittsburgh has allowed an average 282 YPG and 17.7 PPG this millennium. And it's also why they've managed to capture three Super Bowls last six years. Like the Steelers of yesteryear, Mike Tomlin's team plays a punishing brand of football. That's evidenced by the fact that teams in the league are a wobbly 28-33 SU and 22-39 ATS in games after squaring off against Tomlin's teams. Sure, they'll carry the moniker of Super Bowl loser this season and we'll play accordingly as these teams rarely make it back to the playoffs the following year, let alone prosper, going just 38-70-2 ATS as favorites since 2000. Ouch.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (10/9)

FAST FACT: Ben Roethlisberger is 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS vs. greater than .666 division opponents.

2011 AFC EAST DIVISION PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 15:25:00 GMT

With NFL 'EAST' division teams leading the charge with a combined total of 14 games played in Conference title tilts this new millennium, including a league high five championship game appearances games by squads located in the AFC EAST, it speaks to the strength of this group.

So does the division's 148-95-5 ATS mark away from home in games versus sub .667 opposition since 2000, including a sterling 17-5 ATS record in this role when taking eight or more points.

Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is creepy, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 21-3 SU and 20-4 ATS in his NFL career in these affairs.

The Jets went from the hunter to the hunted last year and managed to stay one step ahead of the posse in the process when they landed a spot in the AFC title game for the second-straight season. Interestingly, under head coach Rex Ryan, the Flyboys are 0-3 SU and ATS in games win which they've had a week off.

Meanwhile, Miami owner Stephen Ross' hiring of minority celebrity owners failed to improve the team on the field last year and it appears this may be Tony Sparano's swan song, especially if the Fish fail to improve on last year's eyebrow-raising 1-7 effort at Sun Life Stadium.

And then there's Buffalo, a team that has enjoyed only one winning season this millennium. The addition of solid defensive talent and the promise of improvement from last year's heralded first-round RB C.J Spiller lends hope to Chan Gailey's troops being a mild surprise in 2011, especially with all the buzz in this division pointed elsewhere.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: HANGING CHAN
For a team that has won three division games in three years, it wasn't exactly Christmas in April the day the 2011 NFL schedule was announced. Not when you're awarded the 2nd toughest opponent schedule (last year's foes were 137-119) in the league. Going right to work in the draft at that point, the Bills chose to pass over their future franchise quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) in favor of rebuilding with immediate-impact defensive players. DT Marcell Dareus has the look of a Pro Bowler and he'll be relied on heavily to plug a rush defense that ranked dead last (4.8 DYPR) last season. Meanwhile, head coach Chan Gailey will hang his hat on the arm of journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who did a nice job when pressed into duty last season. "We like our quarterback," said Bills GM Buddy Nix. "We think Fitz is a smart guy, he's a tough guy. He threw for 3000 yards and had a really good year. Our players believe in him. He's a leader for us, so he's our quarterback." Not exactly Tom Brady-like praise, but he'll have to do for now.

PLAY ON: vs. Washington (10/30)

FAST FACT: Gailey is 1-13 SU and 3-10 ATS away vs. non-division opponents.

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: FISH OUT OF WATER
Frustration is measured many ways. The disappointment that accompanies it lasts until it is detached. The 2010 season for the Dolphins was an anomaly, for sure, when they became the only team in NFL history to win five more road games than home games in the same season. As a result Miami was home for the holidays for the second straight year. Meanwhile, the resolve the Dolphins have in QB Chad Henne was expressed in this year's draft when they passed on the chance to select QB Ryan Mallett in the 2nd round, opting to trade up and land RB Daniel Thomas instead. Thomas, a former quarterback in high school and junior college, has a level of comfort with running the Wildcat offense. Tony Sparano, a noted offensive line guru before taking the reins in Miami, was able to fix the interior line that broke down in front of Henne last season when he selected C/G Mike Pouncey, the twin brother of Maurkice, a Pro-Bowl center as a rookie last season, in the first round. Remember, Sparano inherited a 1-15 team and has turned it into a playoff contender. Expect them to get back in their element this season.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego (10/2)

FAST FACT: Miami is 8-0 ATS as a road dog of less than four points under Sparano.

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: PATSIES
This much we know for sure. The playoff loss to the Jets last year showed nothing is more important than protecting the franchise, Tom Brady. When hurried he becomes merely mortal. The first step in that remedy was the selection of OT Nate Solder of Colorado. To their surprise Solder was the highest rated left tackle in the draft and they snagged him up with the 17th pick of the draft. They also reeled in troubled QB Ryan Mallett in the 3rd-round who will learn his craft from Brady. Mallett could be the quarterback of the future or swapped as a trade commodity. Rest assured, the 34-year old Brady plans on being under center for awhile, telling NFL Network analyst Kurt Warner that he was planning on playing 10 more years. Let's hope a case of Brett Favre Fever doesn't impair his thought process. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick's immediate cause of concern is that the Patsies haven't won a playoff game since the 2007 season and his troops have gone one-and-out two straight years in the playoffs. And most alarmingly, their stats went backwards last season despite 14 regular season wins. Uh oh.

PLAY ON: home vs. NY Jets (10/9)

FAST FACT: Tom Brady is 10-1 SU and ATS as a dog off a loss in his NFL career.

NY JETS
TEAM THEME: WTF
Would did the New York Jets and 'Hard Knocks' have in common with Arnold Schwarzenegger and 'True Lies'? The titles fit the two personalities to a tee. And speaking of personalities, there is perhaps none more brash than Jets' head coach Rex Ryan who admits that "I'm even more than I can stand." What Ryan can't stand is losing another conference championship game. There is no truth to the rumor that Ryan was more disappointed at falling one game short of the Super Bowl for the 2nd straight year last season than he was when he learned his wife had come down with a bad case of athlete's foot. Characters aside, Ryan upgraded an already dominant defense with DL Muhammad Wilkerson and Kendrick Ellis (a 3rd-round steal) with his first two selections in this year's draft. Remember this when evaluating teams from a defensive perspective: only three of them held foes to season low yardage four times last season - the Chargers, the Giants and the Jets. Only one of them made it to the playoffs. To which Ryan responded, "What the f**k!"

PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (9/25)

FAST FACT: The Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in road openers.

2011 WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 14:09:00 GMT

If ever there was a telling stat about a conference in decline it's this about the WAC: Of the 29 first-team all-WAC players in 2010, just five return for the 2011 season and none from the offensive side of the ball.

In fact, there were 30 second-team players, and only half of them are scheduled to return this year.

That's quite a dilution in talent and it's directly attributable to the loss of conference powerhouse Boise State to the Mountain West this season.

Making matters worse, Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada will be bolting at the conclusion of this season. And so far, they will be replaced by the likes of Texas State and UT San Antonio.

Confounding matters this year, of the WAC's 36 FBS non-conference matchups, 21 are against teams that played in a bowl game last season. Its top team (for the moment), Nevada, opens the season with four consecutive road games, including three versus non-conference bowlers.

The little bit left to cling to is the fact the league returns the nation's total offense leader from last season in QB Bryan Moniz from Hawaii.

Enjoy him, and what's left of this conference, while they last.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

FRESNO STATE - 4 / 5
TEAM THEME: BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO
The Bulldogs bid adieu to the WAC at the conclusion of this season and we have a sneaky suspicion that a few of those members will look to send the 'Dogs out on a short leash. With just nine overall starters returning, including just one lineman on each side of the ball, it appears as if veteran HC Pat Hill will be dealing with pups this season. His first order of business will be instilling some confidence in a team that suffered it worst bowl loss in team history (23-point loss to N. Illinois). No coaching changes for the first time in eight years will provide some stability as will the return of diminutive RB Robbie Rouse, the league's second-leading rusher.

Stat You Will Like: The Bulldogs 17 BCS wins since 2000 ties them with Utah for the most in the nation among non-BCS teams.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Utah State (10/15) - *KEY off SUATS loss

HAWAII - *3 / 6
TEAM THEME: MIGHTY MO
Thanks to the play of SR QB Bryant Moniz, the Warriors closed the 2010 regular season with plenty of 'mo.' The former walk-on, who led the nation in total passing yards (5,040), also tossed 39 TD's as the Warriors offense took giant strides (+17 PPG, +62 YPG) last season. The stop unit chipped in as well, holding opponents to four fewer points and 45 less yards. Like Fresno State and Nevada, Hawaii will be leaving the WAC at season's end and may face some bad blood along the way. Not to worry - Greg McMakin's formidable staff, which includes Mouse Davis, just got stronger with the addition of former head coach Dick Tomey. And, of course, there's always that funny thing called 'mo.'

Stat You Will Like: The Warriors led the nation in forced turnovers (38) last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Colorado (9/3)

IDAHO - 5 / 8
TEAM THEME: END OF THE LINE
It's not easy for a growing program to lose a four-year starter at quarterback, especially one that tossed for more than 10,000 yards in his career. However, that's the dilemma the Spuds face with the graduation of Nathan Enderle. Replacing Enderle behind center will be Brian Reader, who has played in 16 games, starting two. Meanwhile, John McDonnell, a long-time colleague of HC Robb Akey, has joined the team as it offensive line coach, hoping to improve a rushing attack that dropped 76 YPG and a head-turning 1.6 YPG. The eventual key to success, though, rests with a defense that returns eight starters and has shown steady improvement three years in a row.

Stat You Will Like: Of the 24 seniors on this year's roster, 16 have been with the program since their freshman year.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Bowling Green (9/1)

LOUISIANA TECH - 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: SONNY DAYS NEAR AGAIN?
Sonny Dykes' squad took baby steps in his first year at the helm in Ruston, just missing bowl-eligibility as a 1-4 start proved too much to overcome. To Dykes credit, the Bulldogs enjoyed the top recruiting class in the WAC and all of his full-time assistant coaches are back. In addition, Tech set a single-season attendance record last year. In terms of total yards, the Bulldogs took to Dykes' wide-open offensive philosophy but the defense suffered miserably, falling 5 points and 94 yards per game. That must improve if the Bulldogs hope to overcome a tough seven-game road schedule. Will Sonny and company crawl or walk this year? Too early to tell.

Stat You Will Like: The Bulldogs' offense finished the season ranked 47th in the nation last year, up from 66th in 2009.

PASS

NEVADA - 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: BYE, BYE WAC
Like many FBS teams looking for a new home these days, the Wolves will be packing up and relocating to the Mountain West next season. Gone this year are five of nine all-WAC performers, including QB Colin Kaepernick, the first player in NCAA history to post three consecutive seasons of 2,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards. Also leaving Reno is RB Vai Tua, an all-WAC first-teamer each of the last two seasons. We're big fans of Chris Ault but it appears that the pistol he's been packing since 2008 (three straight years of 500+ YPG) is a lot like the WAC - a thing of the past. A four-game, season-opening road trek likely confirms that notion.

Stat You Will Like:
Last year's 11th ranked team was the lowest ranked one-loss team in the nation. It was also the highest Nevada has been ranked since 1948.

PLAY AGAINST: at New Mexico State (10/29)

NEW MEXICO STATE - 9 / *9
TEAM THEME: AT LAST
When you finish last in the conference in scoring offense, scoring defense, passing offense, rushing offense and total offense, you know there is not much good news to report. Ah, lo and behold, inside every black cloud is a silver lining. In the Aggies case, it starts in the trenches where every offensive and defensive linemen returns in 2011. That should have QB Matt Christian, one of 17 returning starters, sleeping a bit better at night. It hasn't been 'Good Times' for third-year head coach DeWayne (not Jimmy JJ) Walker as his defense has been anything but 'dynamite' in his two seasons in Las Cruces. Maybe the Aggies can improve on a pair of 10-loss seasons but the 'line' stops there.

Stat You Will Like:
The Aggies are 1-19 ATS as a favorite or a dog of four or less points vs. an opponent with revenge.

PLAY AGAINST: at San Jose State (9/24)

SAN JOSE STATE - 6 / 11
TEAM THEME: DRAWING UP NEW PLANS
With a 1-24 straight up mark against FBS teams since late 2008, even King Leonidas couldn't help these Spartans. Last year rookie coach Mike MacIntyre, a former Duke DC, engineered a scheme that promptly managed to slice a full yard off a hideous rush defense, but it was still like walking into the battle of Thermopylae with no weapons for MacIntyre as the Spartans managed only one non-FBS win in 2010. As a result, San Jose brings a nation-worst 10-game losing streak into the 2011 season - as well as a 1-18 conference mark. The good news is the return of 5th-year senior Duke Ihenacho, a two-time 1st-team all-WAC performer at safety, who missed 11 games last season. Other than that, it's back to the drawing board for McIntyre.

Stat You Will Like: The Spartans have suffered 14 consecutive road losses, by an average losing margin of 27.3 points per game. PASS

UTAH ST - 9 / 6
TEAM THEME: TURN TO TURBIN
What do you do when your offense looks to reclaim the 91 YPG it lost last season while having to replace (a) a record-setting quarterback that has piloted the team the last three years, and (b) two of your top running backs - including your leading rusher? If you're head coach Gary Andersen, you count heavily on the return of RB Robert Turbin, the team's leading ground gainer in 2009 who missed 2010 with a knee injury. Andersen will also take over DC duties in 2011 and welcomes back LB Bobby Wagner, the leading tackler in the WAC the last two years. But it's up to Turbin to deliver the goods, a la 'Forrest Gump.' Run, Robert, run!

Stat You Will Like: The Utes are 7-1 ATS as double-digit dogs under Andersen.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. New Mexico State (12/3)

2011 SUN BELT CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 14:06:00 GMT

Sure, they may be suffering from a bad case of sunspots but to a team they believe, sooner than later, a member of the Sun Belt Conference will someday be playing in a BCS bowl game.

By rule, if it can, the SBC champion will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if that team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or if that team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking is higher that that of a champion of a conference that has an automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

It was just two years ago Middle Tennessee State, concluded the season with 10 wins, marking the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to reach the 10-win mark.

To do so, though, they will need to begin knocking off more than fellow Sun Belt squads as the league has taken it on the chin in lined games outside the conference the past two seasons, going 10-61 SU and 28-41-2 ATS.

Still, they have never been shy about taking on the big boys, and this year is no exception as 22 of the league's 32 non-conference FBS game are against teams that appeared in a bowl game last season. In fact, Florida Atlantic opens the 2011 campaign against bowlers in each of its first three games - all on the road, no less.

Granted, they may be hands-down the weakest of the 11 BCS conference affiliates, and it's league champ won't be guaranteed a BCS bowl, but don't tell them. They've still having plenty of fun in the sun.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

ARKANSAS STATE - *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: DEEP FREEZE
Despite leading the Red Wolves to their most victories in an eight-year span since 1985-1992, a second straight eight-loss season put HC Steve Roberts on ice. Enter OC Hugh Freeze. The offense improved leaps and bounds in Freeze's first year as offensive coordinator and should continue in that direction with QB Ryan Aplin returning for his junior season. Freeze was the high school coach of Michael Oher and the 'Blind Side' star raved about his former mentor. "He's a player's coach," Oher said. "If he has anything, you can have it. That's the kind of guy he is." Judging by last year's improved attack, it looks to us like Mr. Freeze HAS a plan.

Stat You Will Like: After ranking No. 95 in total offense in 2009, the Red Wolves' spread offense ranked No. 43 last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Louisiana Monroe (10/8)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: HEADING HOME
A precipitous drop in offensive production last year (10 PPG, 129 YPG) found the Owls sleeping on the job in 2010 as they were outstatted in every game they played. The punishment is a season-opening five-game road trip (see 'Stat' below) as FAU awaits the opening of its brand, spanking new stadium. "The first five games demonstrates we will go anywhere to play the best teams in the nation," contends veteran Howard Schnellenberger, the wily veteran head coach who announced he will be heading home to retirement at season's end. We think what Howie's really saying is 'we'll do anything necessary to help fill the coffers and pad my IRA.' The upside to the early travel is that the Owls will close out the 2011 season in its new digs for five of the final seven games.

Stat You Will Like: Teams playing its 5th straight road game are 11-4 ATS since 1980, including 6-0 ATS when seeking revenge.

PLAY ON: at North Texas (10/8)

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: PUT IT IN REVERSE
Off the best season in FIU's short existence as an FBS school, it's time for us to put our MISSION REVERSE theory to work. Simply put, we look to fade teams off a winning year if they were a loser each of the previous three seasons. With nary a winning season in its history until last year, the Panthers fit the M.O. tighter than O.J.'s glove. With road games in five of its final seven contests, FIU will need to take advantage of an early-season home slate. The problem with that is since 2005 the Panthers are riding an 18-game losing streak during the first three game of the season and we want no part of that. Like we said, if the glove fits...

Stat You Will Like: The Panthers are 0-6 SU and ATS with rest vs. conference opponents under Mario Cristobal.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arkansas State (10/18)

LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE - *5 / 7
TEAM THEME: MOVIN' ON
The Cajuns hustled to find a replacement for HC Ricky Bustle after a 3-9 season lowered his bowl-less 10-year mark at Lafayette to 41-65. Enter Mark Hudspeth, most recently a WR coach at Mississippi State and former mentor at North Alabama for seven seasons, where he guided the Lions to five playoff appearances. Hudspeth will likely implement a two-quarterback offense, featuring classic passer Chris Masson (4,248 yards, 21 TD's last two seasons) and dynamic runner Blaine Gautier. A very young offensive line and seven road games likely means a slow start to a new era and another trip home for the holidays.

Stat You Will Like: The Cajuns' offensive line lost three seniors for the second straight season.

PLAY ON: vs. Florida Atlantic (10/1)

LOUISIANA MONROE - *11 / 8
TEAM THEME: BERRY CLOSE
Three losses to SEC powers by a combined 104-10 count denied Todd Berry a winning debut with the Warhawks last season. Replacing that triumvirate in 2011 will be Florida State, Iowa and TCU so they'll need to take care of business once the conference bell sounds. QB Kolton Browning, responsible for nearly 3,000 yards of total offense as a freshman last year and primary pitch-and-catch partner, WR Luther Ambrose headline an offense that welcomes back all 11 starters. The return of eight starters should bolster a defense that slipped in 2010. The key will be avoiding an early knockout as the Warhawks close out the campaign against six sub .500 opponents.

Stat You Will Like: The Warhawks are 17-3 ATS as conference dogs off an ATS loss.

PLAY ON: at LA-Lafayette (11/5)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE - 7 / 3
TEAM THEME: OVER KILL
After going to back-to-back bowl games for the first time ever in school history, Rick's 'Stock' has risen even faster than Barrack Obama's after the Bin Laden kill. However, for a second straight season there will a change in offensive and defensive coordinators. And for good reason as both the offense and defense took a step back last year. That won't be the only new components in Murfreesboro this season. According to their head coach, the Raiders will be looking for baby-sitters. "We are going to be a young team at nearly every position," said Stockstill. While another soft schedule could help the Raiders hit the alleys for a third straight 'campaign', we're not quite ready to cast a vote.

Stat You Will Like: For the second straight season, the Blue Raiders will face only two teams that owned a winning record last year.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Western Kentucky (10/6)

NORTH TEXAS - 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF DODGE(S)
An injury-ravaged season - especially at the quarterback position - spelled the inevitable in Denton. When the final dust settled, the Dodge era had come to a complete end as QB Riley put in his walking papers after his father, Todd, was canned seven games into the season, thanks to a lean 6-37 mark. Enter Dan McCarney, former 12-year head coach at Iowa State (56-85) and most recent defensive line coach at Florida. While McCarney inherits a strong running game, spearheaded by Lance Dunbar (1,553 yards, 13 TD's), his defensive prowess will be tested early with powerful offenses Houston, Alabama and Tulsa on the non-conference slate. It may be a good thing that Dodge got out of town.

Stat You Will Like: McCarney is 3-17 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 or more points.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Western Kentucky (11/19)

TROY - *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: LARRY THE ABLE GUY
The five-time defending Sun Belt champions will know early what kind of season is in store for 2011. Troy opens the season with a pair of roadies at Clemson and Arkansas, before hosting an annual grudge match with conference rival MTSU. Fourteen starters are back to 'protect' the Trojans title, including QB Corey Robinson, who threw for an impressive 3,707 yards as a freshman last season. Should the Trojans get through September unscathed, a less lubricating schedule awaits with only two squads owning winning records from last season. Meanwhile, HC Larry Blakeney enters his 22nd year on the Troy sidelines, currently the third longest tenure in the nation. And God knows we all trust the 'Trojan Man'.

Stat You Will Like: The Trojans are 87-13-1 at home under Blakeney.

PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/1)

WESTERN KENTUCKY - *7 / 10
Team Theme: TAG, YOU'RE IT
When the Hilltoppers hired Willie Taggert to stop the bleeding last year, he proclaimed that Western Kentucky was in his DNA. While a meager pair of wins by the former 8-year WKU assistant might not look like much, a deeper look inside the numbers confirms the team's progress. The Hilltoppers' defense improved nearly 100 YPG and 7 PPG, and they actually outstatted three opponents, snapping a 20-game stat losing skein. On offense, RB Bobby Rainey is back after rushing for 1,649 yards and 15 TD's. Taggert's success in Year Two will likely depend on the success of Rainey's legs but we think they're headed in the right direction.

Stat You Will Like: The Hilltoppers are 3-34 SU from Game Three out.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Louisiana-Monroe (10/29)

2011 SEC CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 14:53:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

“They ought to just rename the system, BC SEC.”

Those are the prophetic words from Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com. After all, “the SEC is now 7-0 in BCS title games. The conference has won more than half of the 13 BCS championships games,” said Dodd.

We couldn’t agree more.

Winning five national titles in a row and six of the last eight, the SEC might have padded the numbers even more had Auburn caught a break in 2004.

There is so much gridiron talent in this league its no surprise that, since 2006, the SEC has more players on NFL rosters than any other. A total of 45 first-round selections (nine this year have landed in the NFL the last six years, including the No. 1 overall pick of the draft each of the last three, cements their case.

So while saddling up with an SEC team to make it the BCS title game would appear to be the high percentage play, the tougher this year is question is ‘who’.

Five different teams have captured the SEC championship game the last seven years, with only Florida winning twice. Last year’s national champ, Auburn, will suffer from a depleted roster and the onus of being targeted in every contest this season.

Alabama is perched to reclaim the title but will have to do so minus the services of Heisman Trophy running back (Mark Ingram) and its national champion quarterback (Greg McElroy).

And then there’s LSU. Deeply talented as always, hoping its freewheeling coach doesn’t short-circuit its chances.

This is the SEC’s world. We just live in it.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division FLORIDA - *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: URBAN BAILOUT
The not-so-shocking news out of Gainesville was the early departure of HC Urban Meyer who resigned with a 65-15 record and two national titles. Enter Will Muschamp, the former Texas DC whose first task will be to shore up a defense that slipped 55 yards and nine points per game last season. Not to mention an offense that declined over 100 YPG in its first season sans his holiness, Tim Tebow. Muschamp brings along offensive guru Charlie Weis to work his magic but complicating matters was the dismissal of CB Janoris Jenkins, a sure-fire NFL shutdown corner, who was released from the team for repeated marijuana violations. Once again, probably no shock to Meyer. Stat You Will Like: The Gators played 31 freshmen last season, the most in the nation. PLAY ON: vs. Alabama (10/1) *KEY as dog

GEORGIA - *5 / 7
TEAM THEME: SLEEPING DAWGS
On the heels of its first losing season in 14 years, and first in the Mark Richt regime, the Bulldogs have their work cut out for them this year. Six players were lost to the NFL draft, including star WR A.J. Green. Also adding to the dilemma was the requested release of RB Washaun Ealey this spring. That puts the overland onus on Caleb King, who missed last year’s Liberty Bowl for academic reasons. The air attack is once again in the capable hands of QB Aaron Murray, who led all freshman passers in TD/INT ratio (24/8). With Richt on the hot seat for the first time in his career, look for a ‘MISSION YEAR’ effort from the Dawgs in 2011. Stat You Will Like: Georgia is 6-1 ATS with triple-revenge exact. PLAY ON: as dogs vs. Florida (10/29)

KENTUCKY – 6 / 9
TEAM THEME: DEEP SIX
If you’re into devil worship or like rolling boxcars on the dice table, then this is the team for you with Joker Phillips leading a squad that appears pitchfork deep in sixes. A quick scan of Kentucky’s 4-Year Statistical Review says it all – the Wildcats have gone 6-6 ATS each of the past four seasons, losing an average of six games on the SU scoreboard. And if that’s not enough, the ‘Cats will take on just six teams that ended 2010 with winning records as they shoot for a school-record sixth consecutive bowl appearance. Satanic curses aside, the fact of the matter is UK improved its offense 97 YPG in Phillips’ rookie season. With eight home games on the slate, the Devil may just have us rolling the dice with this bunch. Stat You Will Like: New starting QB Morgan Newton has started nine games for the Wildcats the last two seasons, including both the Music City and Papa Johns.com bowl games. PLAY ON: vs. Mississippi (11/5)

SOUTH CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: MORE LATTIMORE, LESS ATTITUDE.
Like last year, the Gamecocks will tackle 10 foes this campaign that were bowl teams last season, including nine in their first 10 games. And like 2010, HC Steve Spurrier has had his fill of troubled QB Stephen Garcia’s attitude and off-field antics. “We won’t throw a lot, anyway, as long as Marcus (Lattimore) is back there,” insisted Spurrier. Lattimore, the National Freshman of the Year (1,197 yards, 17 TD’s) bulked up in the off-season to 230 lbs. “I know what’s coming and I want to be durable,” said Lattimore. In addition, seven of the 10 players who started every game last season return to Columbia in 2011. Despite the rugged schedule, in the end, we’ll continue to ride these ‘Cocks. Metaphorically speaking, of course. Stat You Will Like: In an ‘Orange Crush’ last season, Carolina beat Clemson, Florida and Tennessee for the first time in the same season in school history. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Auburn (10/1)

TENNESSEE - *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOME
The Vols salvaged Derek Dooley’s first year in Knoxville when they rallied to win their final four games of the regular season and garner a bid to the Music City Bowl. We won’t look back and discount the fact that the teams Tennessee beat in the process were a combined 13-27. Nor will we focus on the teams (a collective 50-23 at season’s end) that they lost to. Instead, we’ll look ahead. Make no mistake about it, Dooley knows the task at hand. “I grew up in this conference. I grew up in the SEC,” says Dooley. Key returnees include QB Tyler Brady, who started all four of the season-ending victories. Eight home games should find Dooley feeling right at home. Stat You Will Like: Dooley is 5-1-1 ATS as a conference home dog. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. South Carolina (10/29)

VANDERBILT - *11 / 8

Team Theme: FRANKLIN SPEAKING
Two coaches in two years with 2-10 SU records each found the Commodores abandoning temp services and hiring a full-time coach during the off-season. Enter James Franklin, most recently an OC at Maryland, who ranked near the top of every assistant-coach-for-hire wish list. He prepped Josh Freeman at Kansas State and will work with QB Larry Smith at Nashville (Smith played in 11 games last season). “We plan to become a team with a positive attitude and a team that competes in everything we do,” insists Franklin. With 19 returning starters – including the entire offensive line – back in 2011, those words may carry some serious weight this year. Stat You Will Like: Vandy is 11-77 SU vs. .666 or greater opponents during the regular season since 1992, including 0-10 the last 10. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Wake Forest (11/26)

West Division

ALABAMA – 7 / 9
TEAM THEME: A FIGHTING CHANCE
Unlike last season when the then defending champion Tide was forced to perform against seven foes that all enjoyed the benefit of an extra week of rest (4-3 SU, 2-4 ATS), the Crimson crew will face that scenario just three times in 2011. The trade-off, though, is they’ll be doing it without QB Greg McElroy and four players who were swooped up in the first round of the NFL draft. However, with Alabama owning the No. 1 ranked defense over the past seven years (276.9 DYPG), there’s no need to shed any Tuscaloosa tears. The ‘Nictators’ streak of never having suffered a losing season on the college gridiron appears safe for another year. Stat You Will Like: Head coach Nick Saban is 17-0 SU and 12-5 ATS vs. sub .500 SEC opponents. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (10/22)

ARKANSAS
TEAM THEME: HOG TIED
A victory over Ohio State in last year’s Sugar Bowl would have matched the most wins in a season in Arkansas history. Despite the loss, there’s no reason to sling mud at that 10-win edition. Especially considering Petrino’s Porkers faced the second toughest schedule in the nation. It won’t get much easier this season as the Hogs will tackle eight bowlers – only this time sans Ryan Mallett. While new QB Tyler Wilson will have big shoes to fill, he will benefit by the return of the squad’s top four RB’s (3,450 yards, 37 TD’s) and top three WR’s (375 catches, 50 TD’s). The Razorbacks are also the only team in the SEC with no coaching changes. Stat You Will Like: Head coach Bobby Petrino is 36-6 SU and 28-10-1 ATS at home in his college career. PLAY ON: vs. Auburn (10/8) *KEY off BB losses

AUBURN
TEAM THEME: CAM SHAFT
With the departure of Heisman Trophy winner and top overall pick QB Cam Newton, along with fellow first-rounder DT Nick Fairley and four starting offensive linemen, it appears the Tigers have lost much of their roar. Add to that the bulls-eye that’s painted on their backs, as well as five tough roadies, and the student body may just be hanging around ‘Doomer’s Corner’ this fall. With only three starters returning on each side of the ball and eight bowl teams lining this season’s schedule, we’re certainly going to learn a little more about Gene Chizik’s coaching prowess. Like Cam, more times than not we may end up giving him the shaft. Stat You Will Like: HC Gene Chizik is 8-0 ATS versus a conference foe with revenge. PLAY AGAINST: at Clemson (9/17)

LSU - *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: ROLLING THE BONES
As one might expect, Les Miles was ever the riverboat gambler last season when his team led the nation in 4th-down percentage (11 of 12 for 92%). Not coincidentally, the Tigers were a confident 5-0 in games decided by six points or less. Miles will roll the dice this season with new OC Steve Kragthorpe, former Tulsa and beleaguered Louisville head coach, brought in to work with equally maligned QB Jordan Jefferson. A starter since his freshman season, Jefferson has struggled (No. 92 in pass efficiency) despite some improvement from the Tigers’ offense in 2010. The loss of star CB Patrick Peterson will likely have an impact early on. Stat You Will Like: LSU is 44-4 in night games and 18-13 in day games with Miles. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Florida (10/8)

MISSISSIPPI – 9 / 5
TEAM THEME: INFUSION
Houston Nutt was not a happy camper last season. Not after watching a pair of nine-win seasons go down the drain with a four-win effort in 2010. As a result, he hit the highway hard and reeled in the best recruiting class in a long time at Ole Miss. “We got the best athletes in Mississippi. It was an excellent class,” beamed Nutt. Headed to Oxford this season will be 22 heralded freshmen plus six JUCO transfers. Also on board is new offensive coordinator David Lee, QB coach with the Miami Dolphins last season. More importantly, the entire offensive line returns in tact, paving the way for all-SEC RB Brandon Bolden (2,132 career rushing yards). Stat You Will Like: Nutt is 15-3 ATS as a dog of 11 or more points, including 7-0 ATS off a win. PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (9/17)

MISSISSIPPI STATE - *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: JUST MULLEN AROUND
A 1-2 start to last season did not deter Dan Mullen from his mission, getting the Bulldogs back to a bowl game. A 7-2 finish accomplished the feat as MSU went on to whip Michigan, 52-14, in the Capital One Bowl in what proved to be the most lopsided bowl result for both teams in school history. Thus, it’s safe to say the Bulldogs have turned the corner in the Mullen era, thanks to an offense that continues to improve by leaps and bounds. Multi-dimensional QB Chris Relf (1,776 passing yards, 701 rushing yards) is back for his senior season as is top RB Vic Ballard and leading WR Chad Bumphis. Look for the Bulldogs to take an even bigger bite out of SEC foes (4-4 SU in 2010) this season. Stat You Will Like: Mullen is 13-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. sub .750 opponents. PLAY ON: at Arkansas (11/19)

2011 PAC 12 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 15:32:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

With a $3-billion TV contract freshly inked, the original PAC 8 moves into a third phase of expansion when Colorado and Utah join the newly minted conference this season.

The self-proclaimed ‘Conference of Champions’, the PAC 10 has won more NCAA National Team Championships (400) than any other conference in history. In fact, the top three schools with the most NCAA team championships on that list reside in this conference, namely UCLA, Stanford and USC – in that order.

Oregon and Oregon State joined in 1964 to form the PAC 8. In 1978, the conference added Arizona and Arizona State to create the PAC 10 in its most recent form.

Had Texas and other BIG 12 schools rumored as candidates to join the loop not decided to remain put, it would have likely been known as the PAC 16 this season. But that’s another story for another time.

Remaining true to its roots, the PAC 12 is home to notable football rivalries such as The Civil War (Oregon and Oregon State), The Duel in the Desert (Arizona and Arizona State), The Big Game (California and Stanford), the Apple Cup (Washington and Washington State) and The Battle of LA (UCLA and USC). As such, these traditional rivalries continue throughout a new alignment of two divisions, the North and the South.

Oregon remains the team to beat (despite impending sanctions), with Stanford breathing right down its neck. Meanwhile, because of ongoing NCAA suspensions, the University of Spoiled Children (USC) remains sidelined from bowl play and is ineligible to participate in the PAC 12 championship game. That makes the South Division a wide-open chase for the title.

Yes, it appears more so now than ever, money continues to do the talking – in more ways than one - in the new PAC 12 these days.

North Division

CALIFORNIA - 7 / 6
TEAM THEME: UNBEARABLE
Cal’s seven-year post-season run came to a stunning conclusion last year when a season ending three-game losing streak, in its own den, denied the Bears bowl-eligibility. That’s certainly surprising considering that the home team in California’s first eight games last year posted an 8-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark. “This is a new thing for us. It doesn’t feel good,” understated HC Jeff Tedford, the longest tenured coach in Cal history. Twenty-two losses, however, in four seasons is beginning to test the faithful. Look for Tedford to put the pedal to the metal early and often in 2011 to keep things ‘Bearable’ in Berkeley. Stat You Will Like: HC Jeff Tedford is an alumnus of Fresno State. PLAY ON: vs. Fresno State (9/3)

OREGON - *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: MEET THE YUCKERS
If they were an NFL team, the Ducks would be branded as Super Bowl losers this season. That’s the ignominy associated with choking in the BCS title game last January. The again, any team that allows 500-plus yards four times in the same season should likely not be mentioned in the same sentence with national champions. And if you think their uniforms are yucky, consider that the defense lost five pieces from last year’s front seven. The good news is that QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James, the two main weapons on a potent attack, are back. That, along with seeing what new dopey digs will come out of Eugene, make this team worth watching. Stat You Will Like: Last year was the first 7-0 start for the Ducks since 1933. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. USC (11/19)

OREGON STATE - *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: 2ND TIME A CHARM
Despite 17 starters back in 2010, Mike Riley’s bunch couldn’t overcome one of the nation’s toughest schedules as they suffered their first losing season since 2005. That makes the Beavers a MISSION TEAM in 2011 and we think they’ll do most of the gnawing this season. QB Ryan Katz, back as a starter for the second year, and fifth-year star senior WR/KR James Rodgers (5,784 career all-purpose yards), who sat out most of last season with a knee injury, will lead an offense looking to recoup the 8PPG and 84 YPG it lost last season. FYI: the last three seasons that OSU was playing on the heels of a losing effort, they have gone 10-4, 8-5 and 7-5 - bowling all three times. Stat You Will Like: The last three 2nd-year starting OSU quarterbacks went 9-4, 10-4 and 8-5, leading all three teams to a bowl game. PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (11/5) - *KEY off BB losses

STANFORD *5 / 6
TEAM THEME: HE GETS IT
The best move made by new head coach David Shaw was convincing Andrew Luck (3,338 yards, 32 TD’s last year) to return to Stanford for his junior season. Had he decided to come out, Luck was the sure-fire first-pick in this year’s NFL Draft. While our Playbook cover boy spurned the NFL, HC Jim Harbaugh did not. Stanford quickly branched out to Shaw, the Cardinal offensive coordinator the past four seasons, who has worked under Bill Walsh and Dennis Green, and knows offense. And while the offensive line returns only two starters, they are dandies, as both were named first team All-Pac 10 last season. The Tree’s top four rushers and top four tacklers also return from last 2010’s 12-win edition. Stat You Will Like: Stanford’s No. 4 finish in the final poll was its highest year-end ranking since 1940. PLAY AGAINST: at USC (10/29)

WASHINGTON – 7 / 8
TEAM THEME: U DUB MAN
After languishing in the loser’s lounge for each of the previous six years, it was mission accomplished for Steve Sarkisian last season when he took U Dub to its first bowl game since the 2002 Sun Bowl. That was a dramatic jump from the 0-12 team Sarkisian inherited when he came aboard two years ago. The bottom line is the Huskies have their growl back and with it, the new PAC 12 has elevated its game. The most critical aspect surrounding this year’s team will be finding a replacement for 1st-round NFL pick QB Jake Locker. Fortunately, WR Jermaine Kearse (1,005 yards, 12 TD’s) and RB Chris Polk (1,415 yards) each return to Seattle. Here’s hoping the Huskies are not lounging around at season’s end. Stat You Will Like: The Huskies are 5-0 ATS with rest under Sarkisian. PLAY ON: vs. Colorado (10/15)

WASHINGTON STATE - *9 / 8
TEAM THEME: HOWLING AT THE MOON
One would have to figure that, unless the Cougars are able to cross on over to the other side (read: a winning season), this is likely Paul Wulff’s last year under the stars in Pullman. That’s what five wins (3 FBS) in three years will do. Worse, 10-plus losses every year begins to wear on a person in more ways than one. The Cougars Achilles heel has been its rush defense - or lack of one – as they’ve allowed 5.6 or more yards per rush in all three seasons under Wulff. The good news is the numbers were finally up on both sides of the ball in 2010 and 17 returning starters, including nine on offense, are howling for more. A 7-3 ATS mark as double-digits dogs last season certainly has us doing the same. Stat You Will Like: The Cougars are 3-34 ‘In The Stats’ under Wulff. PASS

South Division

ARIZONA - *5 / 7
TEAM THEME: WOULDA, COULDA, SHOULDA
A promising 7-1 start to last season ended with a disastrous 5-game losing skein, including a bowl thumping at the hands of Oklahoma State. The silver lining, however, is 2010 marked a third straight bowl appearance for the Wildcats, a first since the 1992-1994 campaigns. More good news is Tucson is the return of QB Nick Foles and WR Juron Crinor, the bread-and-butter of the Arizona attack. If HC Mike Stoops can rebuild an offensive line that lost all five starters, look for these Wildcats to avenge some of those late season losses early this year, including a September showdown in Stillwater. Stat You Will Like: Three wide receivers that accounted for 176 catches, over 2,200 total yards and 18 TD’s return for their senior seasons. PLAY ON: at Oklahoma State (9/8)

ARIZONA STATE – 7 / 4
TEAM THEME: UNI DIVERSITY
New uniforms, new helmets and a new logo that is said to resemble a Chicago-based gang, ‘Satan’s Disciples’, have the Devils headed in a new direction as they seek their first bowl bid since 2007. Between the mix of 30 seniors and 26 players who saw their first action at Tempe last season, HC Dennis Erickson has a lot of diversity to work with in 2011. One of only two coaches in the nation to earn six ‘Coach of the Year’ trophies (Steve Spurrier is the other), Erickson must shore up a defense that fell 69 YPG last season if he expects to bowl in his new digs. It may not be this year, but it won’t take until Hell freezes over, either. Stat You Will Like: The Sun Devils have led the Pac 10 in rush defense each of the last two years. PLAY ON: at Oregon (10/15)

COLORADO - *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: EMBRACING EMBREE
A member of the Big 12 Conference since 1996, the Buffaloes will be roaming onto PAC 12 grounds this fall, taking new head coach John Embree along for what very well could be a nasty stampede. Only five home games dot the schedule as well as a tough non-conference slate. Embree, a Colorado alum and Redskins assistant last season, is set for the challenge. “Having coached in this conference before really opened my eyes to the strength of the PAC 12… from top to bottom, there aren’t going to be any weeks off,” insists Embree. Literally - as the Buffaloes play 13 straight games without a week of rest this season. Stat You Will Like: The Buffaloes are 3-9 SU and ATS vs. PAC 10 opponents since 1999, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 ATS at home. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Washington State (10/1)

UCLA - *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: STRENGTH IN NUMBERS
While the numbers appear to fall short, Rick Neuheisel remains relentlessly positive in rebuilding this program. That’s confirmed by two-straight top recruiting classes. In addition, a bevy of quality starters return this season, including QB’s Richard Brehaut and Kevin Prince (2009 starter). Joining them in the backfield are the top seven rushers from last season’s squad. On the defensive front, a total of six starting linemen are back. A relatively lightweight home schedule awaits UCLA this season but we’re guessing revenge from the Slickster’s worst home loss ever will find the Bruins banding together in Stanford. Stat You Will Like: Three starters from the 2009 squad that missed all or the majority of the season last year are back in 2011, including C Kai Maiava, G Jeff Baca and DE Datone Jones. PLAY ON: at Stanford (10/1)

USC - *6 / 7
Team Theme: LANE VIOLATION
The Trojans debuted at 8-5 under HC Lane Kiffin with two of those losses coming on a last-second field goal. While the offense improved (43 YPG) under Lane and two-time Davey O’Brien semi-finalist QB Matt Barkley, the defense backpedaled (59 YPG) under daddy, Monte, as it allowed the most yards ever in school history. The younger Kiffin, however, was impressed with the stop unit in this year’s spring game. And surprisingly, with news just out that the Trojans will be bowl-ineligible once again this season, word is team morale is still high. It better be as only 47 of 86 players on the spring roster have ever taken a collegiate snap due to those well-publicized school violations. Stat You Will Like: USC owns the best win percentage away from home (46-9, .836) over the last eight years. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Arizona (10/6)

UTAH - *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: CHOW TIME
After being one of the Mountain West Conference's founding members in 1999, the Utes said "ciao" and will move into the newly formatted Pac-12 in 2011. Though Utah's 21 wins in 33 game vs. BCS foes since 1998 tells us Kyle Whittingham's bunch should be competitive, there will be immediate pressure on new OC Norm Chow. Why? QB Jordan Wynn, 11-4 as a starter, missed spring camp with a shoulder injury, and the loss of RB’s Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata means Chow will ditch the Utes' spread offense in favor of his multiple attack scheme. He'll be tested early on the road against USC and Utah's blood-rival, BYU. Order up! Stat You Will Like: The Utes are 18-7-1 ATS as dogs and 2-6 ATS as favorites vs. PAC 10 opponents since 1982. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Arizona State (10/8)

2011 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 16:10:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

Like an aging Hollywood actor, the Mountain West adds a wrinkle or two this football season.

Checking out this year are BYU (Independent) and Utah (PAC 12). Checking in is Boise State. Next year's juxtaposition will find Hawaii entering the loop, while TCU heads to the BIG EAST.

If you're scratching your head trying to rationalize the moves, don't. What matters is that the MWC is trying to position itself, or at the least hold serve, as a player in the FBS despite the aforementioned major defections.

Don't laugh. Here's a bar bet we'll bet you will win every time: Name the league that owns the best postseason record of any FBS Bowl Subdivision conference since the inception of the BCS in 1998. The answer: The Mountain West (29-17, .631, including 4-1 last season).

From Air Force to Wyoming, the new Mountain West Conference does more than just blanket the alphabetical world of college football. And with Boise State and TCU heading this year's class, there is no cosmetic surgery needed just yet.

The 8-team MWC is holding confidently firm - for the time being, at least.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

AIR FORCE - *5 / 8

TEAM THEME: FLYING HIGH

Troy Calhoun has taken the Falcons to four bowl games in his four years at the Academy. While a fifth straight trip to the alleys would be unprecedented in Colorado Springs, what really would have the Force flying to new heights would be a second straight Commander-in-Chief trophy. The pilot is in place as QB Tim Jefferson returns for his senior season. A defense that slipped 62 YPG last season also appears to be on solid ground as it welcomes back eight starters. While the Falcons may have to avoid a few bombs from TCU and Boise State, their 17-3 ‘In The Stats' mark over their last 20 contests will have us going to war with this bunch.

Stat You Will Like: Falcons are 18-8 straight up in the final six games of the season under Calhoun. They were 12-24 before his arrival.

PLAY ON: vs. San Diego State (10/15)

BOISE STATE - *8 / 8

TEAM THEME: MOUNTAIN HIGH

The Broncos leave the WAC for the Mountain West where a battle for conference bragging rights will likely be decided when TCU comes calling in mid-November. QB Kellen Moore, the nation's current leader in pass efficiency, heads a contingent of 16 returning starters from 12-1 team that was arguably better than the 14-0 perfect edition in 2009. Last year's group improved 71 YPG on offense and 45 YPG on defense, while scoring more and allowing fewer points per game in the process. Five bowlers will test Peterson's horses early but it's unlikely Boise's 69-2 SU mark on the blue stuff, including 40 wins in a row, will be in jeopardy until that TCU showdown

Stat You Will Like: Boise State is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS vs. Mountain West Conference opponents since 1999.

PLAY ON: vs. Nevada (10/1) - *KEY

COLORADO STATE - *6 / 6

TEAM THEME: FAIR TO MIDDLIN'

After a jubilant debut in which he led his team to a bowl win on the heels of inheriting a 3-9 squad, head coach Steve Fairchild has suffered his own ignominy of back-to-back 3-9 seasons. For that to change, the first order of business will be patching up a rush defense that surrendered nearly 200 YPG and 5.0 YPC. The offense appears to be in good hands, thanks to the play of sophomore QB Pete Thomas, the only freshman to start all of his team's games in 2010. Thomas broke the CSU single-season record for pass completion percentage while tossing for 2,662 yards. With only four winning teams lining the schedule, there's a "Fair' chance that the Rams taste some success this season.

Stat You Will Like: The home team is 23-8-1 ATS in Rams games with Fairchild.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego State (11/12)

NEW MEXICO - *6 / 9

TEAM THEME: DEUCES - THIS TIME - LOSES

It's strange but suddenly it looks like the job Rocky Long did with the Lobos during his 11-year tenure from 1998-2008 (65-69) looks like a work of art next to the 2-22 disaster in two seasons under Mike Locksley. That's what happens when you allow 24 PPG more than you score. We'd like to report that nine starters back on defense will help, but we can't. Not when the returning personnel allowed 5.3 YPR, 469 YPG and 44 PPG. If Locksley is going to avoid being booted out of Albuquerque - and that's a big if - he'll need to take advantage of a reasonable early-season slate. Road games in five of his final seven games will likely prove his Waterloo.

Stat You Will Like: The Lobos are winless without a touchdown in each of their last five season openers.

PLAY AGAINST: at Wyoming (11/19)

SAN DIEGO STATE - *7 / 5

TEAM THEME: ROCKY ROAD

When Brady Hoke answered the call at Michigan after a successful two-year stint in San Diego, the Aztecs needed to look no further than to SDSU assistant, and former New Mexico head coach, Rocky Long to fill the void. While Long's 11-year mark with the Lobos was hardly awe-inspiring (65-69), he did manage to take New Mexico bowling on five occasions. The skill positions are in good shape with the return of SR QB Ryan Lindley, the MWC's leading passer (3,830 yards) in 2010, and RB Ronnie Hillman, who led all freshmen in rushing (1,532 yards). While the road isn't ‘Long' this year (just five roadies), it could be a little ‘Rocky' early on with trips to West Point, Ann Arbor and Colorado Springs.

Stat You Will Like: Rocky Long is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS with rest in conference games.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. TCU (10/8)
　

TCU - 5 / 6

TEAM THEME: MOVIN' ON OUT

The best team in Texas - the last six years, at least - is headed out of the Mountain West and over to the Big East next season. While it was initially a surprising decision (Storrs and company are more than a stone's throw from Ft. Worth), it's a move that figures to put the Frogs on the big-time college football map. Winners of 25 regular season games in a row, TCU takes a hit on offense with the loss of QB Andy Dalton to the NFL. However, the sobering fact of the matter is the loss of C Jake Kirkpatrick and T Marcus Cannon might be felt more than Dalton. A couple of tough away games will also put the nation's longest road winning streak (11) in jeopardy.

Stat You Will Like: TCU is 33-1 in day games and 59-4 on Saturdays.

PASS

UNLV - 7 / 4

TEAM TEHME: YOUNG AND IN VEGAS

What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. Or so the saying goes. The same could be said for a Rebels' squad that was 0-7 SU and ATS on the road last season, being outscored 322-79. If the minimum drinking and gambling age is Las Vegas is 21, where does the UNLV football team go for a night out on the town? If second-year HC Bobby Hauck had his way, it would be the film room. Twenty-four sophomore lettermen return to a team that played 14 true freshmen last season. Gone is QB Omar Clayton whose 40 starts was the most in school history. The first order of business will be re-tooling an offense that slid 77 YPG and 7 PPG. It could be worse... you could be cold and in Cleveland

Stat You Will Like: The home team in UNLV games is 12-1 ATS under Hauck.

PLAY ON: vs. Wyoming (11/13)

WYOMING - 7 / 7

Team Theme: GET FRESH

Year Two of the Dave Christensen hire went south when the Cowboy offense and defense did the same. Even so, coach Christensen is doggedly optimistic about 2011. "I'm very excited about our team," he exclaimed. "We have a number of quality players who can contribute. I think the key is playing a lot of guys and keeping them fresh and being able to play 100 miles an hour every snap." Speaking of staying fresh, the new QB this year will be a freshman as three candidates competed for the job this spring. With new OC Greg Brandon bringing his spread-minded playbook to Laramie, look for the Pokes to 'freshen things up' a bit in 2011.

Stat You Will Like: The Cowboys are 8-1-1 ATS as dogs of less than 12 points under Christensen.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Colorado State (12/3)

Be sure to check back here next Monday, August 1st for Marc's PAC 12 CONFERENCE Football Preview!

2011 MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 15:47:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence •

Entering its 65th year of gridiron competition, the MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE will once again play a balanced schedule, meaning each team will play eight conference games in 2011.

Let’s hope the ledger is more balanced than its been the last two years when only two teams in the MAC West Division managed to finish the season with a winning record. This on the heels of the 2008 campaign when only Buffalo was on the plus side of the ledger inside the East Division.

Fifteen players from the MAC dotted Super Bowl rosters last year. Only the SEC (16) was better represented. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the most success using the MAC as a fertile breeding ground. Two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH) and Defensive MVP James Harrison (Kent State) hail from the MAC.

Amazingly, when traveling as favorites on the non-conference road the MAC is a staunch 20-4 SU and 16-7-1 ATS laying points, including 7-0 SU and ATS as non-conference road chalk when playing off a double-digit victory.

This is definitely a league that is wide open and one that likes to mix things up. Eight different teams have appeared in the last six MAC Championship games while 12 different MAC schools have appeared in a bowl game in the last six seasons.

And speaking of bowls, keep this note handy once the bowl games roll around: since the 2008 calendar year, MAC bowlers are 3-13 SU and 2-13-1 ATS!

East Division

AKRON – *6 / 7
Team Theme: BLOW OUT
Plain and simple, Ron Ianello's first season with the Zips was a disaster. Following a demoralizing double-overtime home loss to Gardner-Webb, the Rubbermakers proceeded to lose every game thereafter before fixing the flat with a season-ending win over Buffalo (a game in which Akron was outgained by 141 yards). The hiring of defensive coordinator Kevin Cosgrove is a major upgrade. The former DC for Nebraska and Wisconsin is an accomplished defensive mind and should make an immediate impact with a veteran defense. Thus the onus falls on an offense that finished 119th in the nation. Promising QB Patrick Nicely figures to improve. After five straight losing seasons, the bar has been set low. Stat You Will Like:The Zips are 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS away vs. greater than .400 conference opponents. PASS

BOWLING GREEN - *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: SOPHOMORE BLUES
The Falcons fell to 2-10 overall and 1-7 in conference play behind second-year coach Dave Clawson, after going 7-6 and 6-2 in his rookie campaign. The offense was the main culprit, slipping appreciably in 2010 (8 PPG, 108 YPG). The good news is 66 players with at least three years of eligibility return, including QB Matt Schilz, who started 10 games as a freshman last season. First-team all MAC WR Kamar Jorden (96 catches, 1109 yards) is also back. The Falcons aren’t so ‘Green’ this time around and if Clawson can address a rush defense that has allowed over 5.3 YPC the past two seasons, then this group could go ‘Bowling’ for the third time in five years. Stat You Will Like:The Falcons are 12-4 SU and ATS from Game Nine out during the regular season over the last four years, including 7-1 SU and ATS away. PLAY ON: as a dog at Buffalo (11/25)

BUFFALO - *9 / 3
THEME: KILLING ME SOFTYLY
It’s hard to find a lot to like about Buffalo’s 2010 performance, but the 332 YPG that the defense surrendered last season was the best since the Bulls roamed into Division I waters. Unfortunately, the offense slipped into a coma, declining 10 points and 108 yards per contest. And it may not get any better this year as we ‘herd’ the QB spot is unsettled. “It’s open competition at the quarterback position,” said HC Jeff Quinn. “We have four players that will be competing… the thing that really hampered us offensively was that we turned the ball over way too much and lacked the ability to score points.” Yep, that’s a problem… as well as having too many cooks in this kitchen. Stat You Will Like:The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as conference home favorites. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Akron (11/19)

KENT STATE - *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: PRESSURE. WHAT PRESSURE?
Doug Martin, and his 29-53 record, was tattooed when the Flashes reached out for new coach Darrell Hazell, a nine-year assistant at Ohio State. Hazell arrives with 25 years of college coaching experience and brings a staff that carries 142 years of collegiate expertise. The pressure of guiding the Flashes to their first winning season since 2001 falls in the hands of JR QB Spencer Keith. Keith knows all about pressure as his high school team never punted the ball or kicked a field goal, opting to go for it every time on 4th down. The defense will lean on DT Roosevelt Nix, the first true freshman ever to be named MAC Defensive Player of the Year. Heck, in Columbus that would have warranted a new car! Stat You Will Like:The Golden Flashes’ season opener is against Alabama’s Nick Saban, a KSU alum. PASS

MIAMI OH - *8 / 9
TEAM THEME: TREAD ON ME
In one of the most ill-fated moves witnessed in a long time, former RedHawks head coach Mike Haywood was signed by Pitt, and then fired just 16 days later due to an arrest for domestic violence. The short-lived celebration came on the heels of Miami’s 10-win season and nine-game improvement, the largest turnaround of any FBS team. As a result, Miami went from worst-to-first in the MAC. With Haywood gone, the keys to a well-stocked unit (17 returning starters, 51 letterman) have been handed to Don Treadwell, a Miami grad and recent OC at Michigan State. The QB spot, in particular, is strong with the return of both Zac Dysert and Austin Boucher. Stat You Will Like:Last year, Miami was the first team in NCAA history to go from 10 losses to 10 wins. PLAY AGAINST: at Minnesota (9/17)

OHIO UNIVERSITY – 7 / 3
TEAM THEME: 'O' YES, 'O' NO
It's not often you will find a team that returns a 100% compliment of its starting offensive linemen and 0% of its starting defensive linemen on the opposite side of the ball. So it is with the 2011 Bobcats as Frank Solich ushers in his seventh season on the sidelines in Athens. Thus, hopes for a third-straight bowl game hinge not only on the arm a tenuous quarterback situation (Boo Jackson departs with 38 TD's, 4,446 yards and a 136.3 career TD rating) but also a revamped stop-unit that has improved its numbers each of the last three seasons. Plugging the hole in the defensive-line dyke, while somehow reinvigorating a leaderless offense, is the double-tough task at hand. Stat You Will Like:The Bobcats are 20-3 SU and 17-4 ATS vs. .250 or less opponents under Solich. PASS

TEMPLE - *8 / 5
TEAM THEME: NO TEMPLE OF DOOM
How many licks can the Owls take in one season? Being the only eight-win team home for the holidays was hardly the worst news the Owls suffered last year. That paled in comparison to the loss of HC Al Golden, who was lured away by the babes on South Beach. However, insiders tell us that new coach Steve Addazio, former offensive coordinator at Florida State and QB coach to Tom Brady, feels confident his troops can win the MAC this season. While a QB battle ensues between Chester Stewart and Mike Gerardi, how well ‘Daz’ addresses the loss of four all-MAC performers on defense will likely determine the Owls fate in the post-Golden year. Stat You Will Like:The Owls are 6-0 ATS with revenge in Game Three of the season. PLAY ON: as a dog at Ohio U (11/2) - *KEY

West Division

BALL STATE
TEAM THEME: HANGING IN LEMBO
At Dave Letterman’s request, we promised ourselves not to make direct references to testicles in any form whatsoever in this prognosis and instead address the sad sack condition of the Cardinals ever since Brady Hoke bolted for sunny San Diego two years ago. The Stan Parrish experiment saw BSU’s win total shrink considerably more than showering in ice water and now the team’s fate rests in the hands of Pete Lembo. The former head coach at Elon and Lehigh, respectively, employs a unique no-huddle, non-spread offense. Before busting our nuts trying to figure that out, we’ll step back and observe for now. Sorry, but that’s as indirect as we can get. Stat You Will Like:Lembo is one of five new head coaches in the MAC this season. PASS

CENTRAL MICHIGAN - *8 /6
TEAM THEME: TOASTED CHIPS
A three-win season wasn’t quite what freshman coach Dan Enos had envisioned after taking over the reins from Butch Jones, who had garnered 28 victories in his three seasons at CMU. However, with no Dan LeFevour and only 13 seniors on the roster, Enos was forced to play 19 first-time starters. Thus, it was no surprise that the Chips ended the season much like fans at a Jimmy Buffet concert – toasted. Still, this season could be a ‘real beauty’ as more than half of the Chippewas losses (5) last year were by seven points or less and the combination of QB Ryan Radcliffe and WR Cody Wilson returns to Mt. Pleasant. No wasting away for this ‘Mission Team’ this season. Stat You Will Like:The Chippewas are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS over the last six years in games against an opponent off a SU underdog win. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Toledo (11/18)

EASTERN MICHIGAN – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: ENGLISH LESSON
Two wins in a season are hardly worth writing about. Unless, of course, you’re an English major looking to put a new spin on an old story. After going winless in 2009, the Eagles showed some fight last season, posting a pair of road victories as 14.5 and 7-point underdogs, snapping a 14-game road losing skein in the process. It might not be Shakespeare but HC Ron English, his staff and players, have taken the following oath: ‘I will hustle, I will display courage, I will know my assignment and I will care about my teammates.’ According to English, these qualities do not require physical ability but they do require great effort and discipline. Let’s hope it’s a lesson well learned. Stat You Will Like: The nine coaches on the Eagles staff bring 160 years of coaching experience with them. PLAY ON: at Northern Illinois (11/25)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS - *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: HARNISH RACER
In three short years in DeKalb, Jerry Kill rescued the Huskies program, turning them from two-win underdogs into 11-win wonder dogs. As a result, they are less-Kill and more-Doeren these days as Jerry was lured to Minnesota while Dave (Doeren) arrives from Wisconsin. The former Badgers’ defensive coordinator inherits an offense that is loaded with talent, headlined by three-year QB Chandler Harnish, a dual threat who passed for 2,530 yards while running for 830 more. Joining Harnish are his top three wide receivers from last season’s record-breaking squad, along with all five starting offensive lineman. More or less, the Huskies are the team to beat in the MAC. Stat You Will Like: The offensive line allowed just 13 sacks last season. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Wisconsin (9/17)

TOLEDO – 9 / 9
TEAM THEME: CHANGING OF THE GUARD
The Tim Beckman project appears to be taking off rather well as he has improved the Rockets’ fortune in each of his first two years on the job. And with 18 starters back from last year’s bowl squad, touch down brings us round to the Glass Bowl this season. The question becomes whether Toledo can handle the prosperity of this sudden loser-to-winner makeover. According to Beckman, they can. “We know we were successful last year… but the bottom line is we were not in the MAC championship game and we didn’t win the bowl game. The players understand that and they have not accomplished all their goals,” reminds the third-year head coach. Stat You Will Like: Toledo is 7-0 SU and ATS in games off a loss of 20-plus points under Beckman. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Western Michigan (11/8)

WESTERN MICHIGAN - *6 / 8
Team Theme: CUBIT’S CUBE
Last year's 6-6 effort was disappointing for Western Michigan fans but a closer look shows the Broncos’ numbers were up across the board in every offensive and defensive category. That’s what we call gently kicking up a storm, meaning the ingredients are in place for a profitable (read: $$$) season in 2011. QB Alex Carder (3,334 yards, 30 TD’s, 63.1 completion percentage) – who started every game last year – is back, along with his favorite WR Jordan White, the WMU record-holder for receiving yards. Tread carefully, though: head coach Bill Cubit needs to solve his puzzling 14-26-5 ATS run over the past four seasons with the Broncos. Stat You Will Like: Cubit is 1-9-1 ATS home vs. an opponent seeking revenge. PLAY ON: vs. Central Michigan (9/17)

Be sure to check back here next Monday, July 25th for Marc’s 2011 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE Football Preview!

2011 INDEPENDENT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 15:37:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

The world of college INDEPENDENTS expanded a whopping 25% when BYU declared its independence and joined Army, Navy and Notre Dame to form the FBS fighting four in 2011.

Once again, like last year, expect the fearsome foursome to have a say on the participants involved in the 2011 National Championship BCS game when these Indy’s take on no less than 27 combined opponents that landed bowl bids last season.

Rest assured, without a conference affiliation, this self-governing group holds plenty of veto power when it comes to dashing the dreams of many BCS Championship Game aspirants.

And keep this thought in mind when handicapping the chances of these four INDEPENDENTS this season: Collectively, under their current head coaches, this contingent shines in game against opponents that are off a SU and ATS loss, going 36-7 SU and 31-12 ATS overall.

Under the direction of their current mentors, as a pick or dog of less than 10 points in this role they are 11-1 SU and ATS; versus a foe off a SU favorite loss they check in at 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS; and when facing a greater than .333 opponent off a SU and ATS loss they a mind-boggling 19-5 SU and 20-4 ATS combined.

Sort of puts a new spin on INDEPENDENT thinking, if you know what I mean…

ARMY
TEAM THEME: BABY CADETS
It wouldn’t surprise us to hear more lullabies than reveilles at West Point this season. The Cadets graduated 13 senior starters, including both safeties and a defensive end that each started 36 games over the past three years. Also gone is the team’s leading tackler and all-time leader in sacks for a loss, along with a three-year starter at nose tackle. An offensive line, which allowed the third fewest sacks per game in the nation last season has also been ravaged, losing four starters. To further complicate matters, the young Knights tackle three bowlers to open the season while only four home games dot the 2011 schedule. Ellerson will need to sound the bugle early. Stat You Will Like: The Cadets are 1-15 straight up versus service academies since 2003. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tulane (10/1)

BYU - *10 / 9
TEAM THEME: INDEPENDENT THINKERS
Did the Cougars make the right move leaving the MWC for Independent status? Only time will tell but we do know that BYU is guaranteed to end its first season of football independence in the Armed Forces Bowl should they finish bowl eligible. That shouldn’t be a problem as 19 starters are back from a team that finished last season in a flurry, averaging 42.4 PPG and 469 YPG over its final five contests. Amongst the returnees are QB Jake Heaps, the top three RB’s from a backfield that produced BYU’s best ground game in 10 years and a mammoth offensive line that averages 6’5”, 320 pounds. Make no mistake about it – these Cats are coming ‘round the mountain. Stat You Will Like: Heaps had 1 TD and 6 INT’s in his first five starts last year; 13 TD’s and 2 INT’s in his last five starts. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. TCU (10/28)

NAVY – 8 / 3
TEAM THEME: DEPTH CHARGE
In military slang, it’s called a push or an assault. In college football, it’s what the Naval Academy has done on the playing field over the past eight seasons, with the prospects for another attack gearing up in 2011. The return of 53 of 67 players listed on the final 2010 depth charts, along with 11 of 13 specialists, figures to put Navy in prime position to win back the Commander-in-Chief trophy that it gave up for the first time in eight seasons. Additional ammo finds the senior class needing 10 wins to break the school record set in 1909 (36). If nothing else, we know Ken Niumatalolo’s team will be disciplined as they led the nation in fewest penalty yards (27.6 YPG) in 2010. Stat You Will Like: Navy is 15-1 vs. fellow service academies since 2003. PLAY ON: vs. Air Force (10/1)

NOTRE DAME - *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: CHRIST CROSS
When Brian Kelly decided to team up with Touchdown Jesus, he knew the challenge would be stern. Little did he realize he’d start out facing the toughest schedule in the nation last year, only to follow it up against 10 opponents with winning records this year. To which Kelly calmly responded, “We built a strong foundation last year and now it’s time to grow.” An interesting battle takes place under center between a pair of QB’s who both saw significant playing time last season, JR Dayne Crist and SO Tommy Rees. After Crist injured his knee, Rees led the Irish to a season-ending four-game winning streak. With a completely different energy level from the Irish defense this spring, look for huge strides from that unit this fall. Stat You Will Like: Kelly is the 3rd active winningest coach the last 10 years (102-29), trailing only Bob Stoops and Mack Brown. PLAY ON: as dog at Michigan (9/10)