By Marc Lawrence
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let's examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks these days.
It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. For the most part it pertains largely to Ivy League games, noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
What we're looking to target on is how teams fare the second night of these affairs.
According to our powerful database the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 49-80-3 ATS overall since the 1990-91 season.
Digging deeper, if these tired hosts have lost two or more home games this campaign they dip to 30-48-2 ATS.
Worse, put these two-time losers up against a foe that was a dog of 16 or more points in its last game and they break out in hives real fast, going 6-22 ATS, including 0-12 ATS since 2003.
You will need to break out the calamine lotion whenever an unrested double-digit home favorite that owns a win percentage of less than .590 on the season takes the court. These irritated hosts, who have lost at least two home games and are taking on a team that took at least 16 points in its previous game, lose the scratch at an alarming rate, going 1-15 ATS.
Keep an eye on this theory throughout the end of the Ivy League season this year. And if by any chance you feel a sudden tingle coming on, don't scratch it. Simply apply the proper antidote.