It's that time of the year where we head to the alleys and look to knock down anything in our path. No, we're not talking street gangs or the PBA. It's the last leg of the 2009 College Football season and with it the last chance to stuff the stockings for the holidays. With that, let spin through the college football games on tap this week. From the Playbook College Bowl Stat Report, here are some of the good, bad and ugly stats and trends. All records are ATS unless noted otherwise. We'll be back next Thursday with Round Two.
NEW MEXICO BOWL Wyoming: bowlers with 6-6 records are 20-10. 3-13 vs opponents with winning record Fresno State 3-2 ATS and In The Stats vs bowlers this season: double-digit WAC bowlers are 1-4
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL Central Florida: CUSA bowlers 11-2 vs opponent off SU and ATS loss 2-11 vs Big East opponents Rutgers: 18-7-1 off win vs opponent of win with Schiano. 1-4 SU and In The Stats vs fellow bowlers this season
NEW ORLEANS BOWL Middle Tennessee State: 3-0 SU and ATS vs CUSA opponents 0-2 SU, ATS and In The Stats vs bowlers this season Southern Mississippi: 5-1 bowl games vs opponent off BB SU and ATS wins 1-3 In The Stats vs bowlers this season
LAS VEGAS BOWL BYU: 9-4-1 dog or fav 4 or less points vs Pac 10 opponent's win-loss percentage .465 this season Oregon State: 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in bowl games L5Y PAC 10 bowl favorites 3-15 vs opponent of loss or win of 3 or less points
POINSETTIA BOWL Utah: 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS bowl games L9Y 1-4 vs fellow bowlers this season California: PAC 10 bowlers 10-2 SU and ATS L2Y 0-3 bowl favorite vs opponent off loss
HAWAII BOWL SMU: Jones 48-14 SU vs opponent off loss 1-4 SU and In The Stats vs fellow bowlers this season Nevada: 5-1 w/rest vs sub .666 opp with Ault DD WAC bowl favorites 1-4
bowl game trends in the o.u are pretty reliable because of the conference match-ups.for instance when always have a team from the mac playing a team from the sunbelt conf. you dont usually two dominating defenses hence the trend of high scoring games in that paticular bowl game year after year.the sun bowl is usually high scoring,this year,might be different with stanford,oklahoma.great offense in stanford,good defense in o.k.,o.u.56.5 because of its history of high scoring games i'd be inclined to play the over and stanford or ok and the under.pac 10 team trends are play on as a dog because of their wide open passing offenses so my best bet on that game would be stanford+9.5.i dont see o.k. coming with a all out defensive effort which is what it would take to keep a balanced offense like stanfords out of the end zone.conversely stanford defense is not going to shut down o.k.offense either so the trend of high scoring games in the sun bowl probably continues.in this case imo the pac tens trend of covering as a underdog is probably stronger than high scoring games in the sun bowl.that off a loss,off two wins all that other shit is just to complicated for me.bowl trends are strong but you still have to handicap the matchups,take stanford+9.5,yhey will be thrilled to be there,o.k. will be dissapointed to not be playing in a bigger bowl
Bowl game trends are useless IMO. Sales tactic.
What do you know about the PBA ;)
thanks Marc I have a question I know you have your hands on some awesome trends Have you studied turnover probability? We have a Championship game with a team that hasn't turned over the ball in 4 straight games. Or is this even worth a try to handicap turnovers. thanks