"Now I'm almost over you...I've almost shook the blues So when you come back around after painting the town You'll see I'm almost over you." We all know the value of a live home dog. Especially in college football. By definition, they are home teams in underdog roles with a strong edge in their favor. In the right match-up they are capable of pulling off an outright upset. In a majority of cases, in games in which they do not win, they have the ability to play close enough against their favored foe to at least bring home the bacon in the pointspread wars. On the other side of the table sits the dog with little-to-no bite. These are primarily teams that have little-to-no desire or reason to play, oftentimes found just playing out the string. They tend to come up flatter than the champagne at a John McCain post-election party. Disappointment can be a huge tool in one's handicapping arsenal, provided of course it's used in the right manner. Take, for instance, college football teams that are wrapping up a disappointing season. These teams take an unemotional approach, looking to wrap things up as quickly as possible. That, my friend, sounds an automatic death knell when it comes to handicapping college football games, as emotion is an absolute key ingredient in almost every team's path to success. One particular scenario I've found appealing is fading home teams in their 2nd-to-Last Home Game when they have a Last Home Game (LHG) scheduled next. Whether the focus is slanted more toward the LHG or simply the fact that they have little-to-nothing to play for, teams tend to come up empty more times than not in this situation. Even worse, bring them in off back-to-back losses and watch them 'go through the motions'. That's confirmed by the fact teams in this role lay down more often than senior citizens in a retirement home, going 140-164-6 ATS since 1980. Last week saw Colorado, Ohio U, UNLV and Washington struggle (1-3 ATS combined) in this role. This week finds Kansas State, Louisville, San Diego State and South Florida doing the honors. Now, if you really want to see them roll over and die, simply - PLAY AGAINST college football home dogs off BB losses in the 2nd LHG if their next game is their LHG and they lost by 10 > points ATS in their previous game . That's because these sick puppies are just 26-42-1 ATS, thus becoming a 62% 'play against' property. Let them come in off a pointspread loss of more than 17 points and become a 9-26 ATS mutt. And while we're at it, let me throw in this bone... when these toothless home pooches own a win percentage of .200 or greater on the season and are off an ATS loss of 17 or more points they are become a 3-17 ATS fade. This week we find LOUISVILLE as our home dog with no bite on Friday night. Remember, for the most part home dogs are the way to go, provided of course they have some bite left in their bark, if you know what I mean... > Get Marc's 7 Day All Access Football Pass at Pregame Pros!
"Now I'm almost over you...I've almost shook the blues So when you come back around after painting the town You'll see I'm almost over you."
We all know the value of a live home dog. Especially in college football. By definition, they are home teams in underdog roles with a strong edge in their favor. In the right match-up they are capable of pulling off an outright upset. In a majority of cases, in games in which they do not win, they have the ability to play close enough against their favored foe to at least bring home the bacon in the pointspread wars. On the other side of the table sits the dog with little-to-no bite. These are primarily teams that have little-to-no desire or reason to play, oftentimes found just playing out the string. They tend to come up flatter than the champagne at a John McCain post-election party. Disappointment can be a huge tool in one's handicapping arsenal, provided of course it's used in the right manner. Take, for instance, college football teams that are wrapping up a disappointing season. These teams take an unemotional approach, looking to wrap things up as quickly as possible. That, my friend, sounds an automatic death knell when it comes to handicapping college football games, as emotion is an absolute key ingredient in almost every team's path to success. One particular scenario I've found appealing is fading home teams in their 2nd-to-Last Home Game when they have a Last Home Game (LHG) scheduled next. Whether the focus is slanted more toward the LHG or simply the fact that they have little-to-nothing to play for, teams tend to come up empty more times than not in this situation. Even worse, bring them in off back-to-back losses and watch them 'go through the motions'. That's confirmed by the fact teams in this role lay down more often than senior citizens in a retirement home, going 140-164-6 ATS since 1980. Last week saw Colorado, Ohio U, UNLV and Washington struggle (1-3 ATS combined) in this role. This week finds Kansas State, Louisville, San Diego State and South Florida doing the honors. Now, if you really want to see them roll over and die, simply -
PLAY AGAINST college football home dogs off BB losses in the 2nd LHG if their next game is their LHG and they lost by 10 > points ATS in their previous game
.
That's because these sick puppies are just 26-42-1 ATS, thus becoming a 62% 'play against' property. Let them come in off a pointspread loss of more than 17 points and become a 9-26 ATS mutt.
And while we're at it, let me throw in this bone... when these toothless home pooches own a win percentage of .200 or greater on the season and are off an ATS loss of 17 or more points they are become a 3-17 ATS fade. This week we find LOUISVILLE as our home dog with no bite on Friday night.
Remember, for the most part home dogs are the way to go, provided of course they have some bite left in their bark, if you know what I mean...
> Get Marc's 7 Day All Access Football Pass at Pregame Pros!
Great info bro, that helps a lot. I had already gone against louisville this week and will look at the other games. Thanks for the great info.
140-164-6 ATS? What kind of a stupid worthless stat is that? Ok guys lets go out and bet 310 games and make 10 net units? This is the stupidest angle to date Marc Lawrence; you should be ashamed.
It's a historical trend dating back to 1980. That's the point, not so much that all 310 games were bet since then...
Cowboys...gotta agree with ya on this one. If we look at the trends, fading the dogs gets you 54% winners. If last week they went 3-1 ATS (75%), we are looking at 1-3 this week. While I understand this may not be the case and that isn't exactly how %'s work, it just is pretty meaningless...which I think you were trying to point out. Now if the dog's were 104-164, ok...we're looking at a little better number here but that's not the case. Louisville seems to have the best "trend" predictor so maybe there is the 1 win....pretty sure USF is a fave over Rutgers this week as well.