"Now I'm almost over you...I've almost shook the blues
So when you come back around after painting the town
You'll see I'm almost over you."
We all know the value of a live home dog. Especially in college football.
By definition, they are home teams in underdog roles with a strong edge
in their favor. In the right match-up they are capable of pulling off
an outright upset. In a majority of cases, in games in which they do
not win, they have the ability to play close enough against their
favored foe to at least bring home the bacon in the pointspread wars.
On the other side of the table sits the dog with
little-to-no bite. These are primarily teams that have little-to-no
desire or reason to play, oftentimes found just playing out the string.
They tend to come up flatter than the champagne at a John McCain
post-election party.
Disappointment can be a huge tool in one's handicapping arsenal,
provided of course it's used in the right manner. Take, for instance,
college football teams that are wrapping up a disappointing season.
These teams take an unemotional approach, looking to wrap things up as
quickly as possible. That, my friend, sounds an automatic death knell
when it comes to handicapping college football games, as emotion is an
absolute key ingredient in almost every team's path to success.
One particular scenario I've found appealing is fading home teams in
their 2nd-to-Last Home Game when they have a Last Home Game (LHG)
scheduled next. Whether the focus is slanted more toward the LHG or
simply the fact that they have little-to-nothing to play for, teams
tend to come up empty more times than not in this situation.
Even worse, bring them in off back-to-back losses and watch them 'go
through the motions'. That's confirmed by the fact teams in this role
lay down more often than senior citizens in a retirement home, going
140-164-6 ATS since 1980. Last week saw Colorado, Ohio U, UNLV and
Washington struggle (1-3 ATS combined) in this role. This week finds Kansas State, Louisville, San Diego State and South Florida doing the honors.
Now, if you really want to see them roll over and die, simply -
PLAY AGAINST college football home dogs off BB losses in the
2nd LHG if their next game is their LHG and they lost by
10 > points ATS in their previous game
.
That's
because these sick puppies are just 26-42-1 ATS, thus becoming a 62% 'play against' property. Let them come in off a pointspread loss of
more than 17 points and become a 9-26 ATS mutt.
And while
we're at it, let me throw in this bone... when these toothless home
pooches own a win percentage of .200 or greater on the season and are
off an ATS loss of 17 or more points they are become a 3-17 ATS fade. This week we find LOUISVILLE as our home dog with no bite on Friday night.
Remember, for the most part home dogs are the way to go, provided of course they have
some bite left in their bark, if you know what I mean...
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