"The gypsy swore our future was
right.
But come the wee wee hours, well
maybe baby the gypsy lied.
So when you look at me, you better
look hard and look twice.
Is that me baby, or just a brilliant
disguise."
Deception can be a dangerous
thing. Superstar songwriter Bruce
Springsteen said it best when he penned these words... "God have mercy on
the man who doubts what he's sure of."
What a powerful phrase. To travel in
the shoes of a man whose most assured beliefs are lined with doubt would be to
talk the talk without walking the walk.
It just doesn't sell.
Neither does walking around with
your chest sticking out, while accepting accolades on an achievement that may
well have been clearly over one's head.
This especially holds true in college football where, often times these
types of teams carry a masquerade of being better than they are, albeit for the
sake of one positive performance.
To site the perfect example, last
season seven college football teams were fortuitous enough to knock off
opponents that had entered the contest sporting a 5-0 or better record. Collectively they combined to go just 2-5 ATS
in the following game. The beauty, though, occurred when Louisville
upended a then 7-0 Cincinnati
squad as 10-point dogs. The linemaker somehow became immediately infatuated
with the Cardinals when he installed them as a road favorite the next week at Connecticut. As
expected, Louisville
crapped their pants when the Cardinal lost, 21-17, in their brilliantly
disguised role as road chalk!
All of which leads us to the
following handicapping angle...
PLAY AGAINST any college football favorite who won SU as an
underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent
in their last game.
What we have here are the makings of
a letdown of major proportions. That's
evidenced by the fact that teams in this 'play against' role are 62-41 ATS,
including 49-29 ATS if they did not enjoy a week off after the big upset. Oklahoma State and
Texas will be in masquerade this week.
To make matters even more
interesting, if their opponent checks in with a win percentage of .600 or
greater we zoom to 20-4 ATS by
fading these brilliantly disguised conceal artists. Donning the facial mask
this week will be Texas, who upended previously unbeaten and
top-ranked Oklahoma
last week. Oh, and by the way, if our
puffed-up favorite happened to cover the spread by more than 14 points in its
upset win, we enter the NEAR-PERFECT ZONE, as these plays are 14-1 ATS since 1980. Can you say "Go, Tigers, go!"
It's like Bruce said about people in
these types of situations... "Now look at me baby, struggling to do
everything right. And then it all falls apart, when out go the lights. I'm just
a lonely pilgrim, I walk this world in wealth. I wanna, if it's you I don't trust,
cause I damn sure don't trust myself."
Pretty powerful stuff, to be sure. No disguises, just the
perfect twist to a brilliant handicapping angle...
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