Wisconsin fits my system this week against Penn State

LEAN ON ME

"I just might have a problem that you'll understand

We all need somebody to lean on... lean on me

When you're not strong I'll be your friend

I'll help you carry on... lean on me."

Make no mistake about it. There are times in college football when quantity outweighs quality. Especially when the subject matter involves returning starters. Let me explain, if I may.

According to our database, entering the 2008 season, and since 1990, a total of 207 different 'lined' teams started the season with 17 or more returning starters from the previous season.  On the blind these teams held their own against the oddsmaker's impost, combining for an aggregate ATS win-loss record of 1282-1156-30.  That equates to a 52.5% ATS winning log on nearly 2500 results over an 18-year span.

As you might believe, there are a myriad of winning situations within the numbers above. For instance, whenever a 17-returning starter team failed to get the money in each of their previous two contests they tend to focus more than ever on making amends. Like a guard who's allowed a pair of invaders to breach the fortress, these teams are 219-158-4 ATS. That represents a nifty 58% winning angle, or an increase of 5.5% winners from our 'on the blind' numbers above.

We can really begin to tighten things up with these teams simply by making sure we are taking points, rather than laying them. That's because if we were to...

PLAY ON any college football underdog with 17 or more returning starters if they lost ATS in each of their previous two games

we would own a rather glossy 124-86-2 ATS winning record in all games since 1990.  FYI: two teams qualify on this week's card - Miami Ohio and Wisconsin. By melding in two other parameters we can improve our W-L percentage dramatically.  First, simply make sure our 17-returning starter team allows less than 33 points per game on the season (the RedHawks and Badgers both qualify as dogs this week).  These teams are 96-61-2 ATS.

Looking to improve an already solid winning angle, we solidify our position by fading opponents that are off a loss.  That's because 17-returning starter dogs who lost each of their last two games against the spread and allow less than 33 points per game, are 28-10-1 ATS  when facing an opponent that is off a loss. Put them on the road in this role and they ratchet up to 17-4 ATS. Miami Ohio meets our needs this week.

Just in case you're wondering, according to the 2008 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL HANDICAPPERS' YEARBOOK magazine, these are the 17-returning starter teams, entering the 2008 season, that you can 'lean on' this season. Keep them handy, as most are not your normal 'muscle-man-material', if you know what I mean... Bowling Green, Buffalo, Connecticut, Duke, Florida Atlantic, Miami Ohio, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, Stanford, Temple, Texas Tech, UAB, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.  Enjoy...

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