School Is Back In Session

Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
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School Is Back In Session

Rested vs. Unrested

We rehash our rested vs. unrested teams dialogue in brief fashion this week, noting that the rested teams were a disappointing 5-7 (42%) ATS this past Saturday. This after cashing 14 of 21 tickets the two weeks prior (67% ATS). However, it is worth noting that rested DOUBLE-DIGIT favorites are now a perfect 8-0 ATS the past two weeks following impressive covers from Missouri, Georgia Tech and Arizona over the weekend. We used Mizzou as our 20* Primetime Bailout, which, oh by the way, are now a perfect 4-0 this year. We'll have another one this upcoming Saturday.

Here is a complete list of rested vs. unrested teams on this Saturday's slate:

Georgia (-12.5) vs. Tennessee
LSU (+4) at Florida
Miss St (+2.5) vs. Vanderbilt
Northwestern (+3) vs. Michigan State
Syracuse (+23.5) at West Virginia
ECU (-5) at Virginia
New Mexico State (+19) at Nevada
San Jose State (-15.5) at Utah State
Central Michigan (-9) vs. Temple
Buffalo (-1.5) vs. Western Michigan
Arkansas State (-12) vs. LA Monroe
Middle Tennessee State (+1) vs. Florida International

Note that Georgia, San Jose State and Arkansas State all fall into the rested double-digit favorite role. Central Michigan may make this a "party for four" by weeks end.

Undefeated Teams

Perhaps the biggest surprise from this past Saturday is that there weren't any major surprises. Only 3 of CFB's 18 undefeated teams fell and we were guaranteed one of those losers as Kentucky and Alabama were playing one another. The other two teams to fall from the ranks of perfection both come by way of the Big East. South Florida lost outright at home vs. Pitt on Thursday while UConn was simply overwhelmed by North Carolina. The top nine teams in the polls were all victorious.

Of the 15 remaining unbeatens, eight come from either the Big 12 or SEC. Before proclaiming that the Big 12 has surpassed the SEC on the CFB landscape, take note that none of the Big 12 powers have played against one another as of yet. That changes this weekend as there are two battles of undefeated teams on the schedule. Here's a quick look at what the rest of October holds for this group of perfectionists:

Alabama: (10/11) BYE, (10/18) vs. Ole Miss, (10/25) at Tennessee
LSU: (10/11) at Florida, (10/18) at South Carolina, (10/25) vs. Georgia
Vanderbilt: (10/11) at Miss State, (10/18) at Georgia, (10/25) vs. Duke

Oklahoma: (10/11) vs. Texas (at Dallas), (10/18) vs. Kansas, (10/25) at Kansas State
Missouri: (10/11) vs. Oklahoma State, (10/18) at Texas, (10/25) vs. Colorado
Texas: (10/11) vs. Oklahoma (Dallas), (10/18) vs. Missouri, (10/25) vs. Oklahoma State
Texas Tech: (10/11) vs. Nebraska, (10/18) at Texas A&M, (10/25) at Kansas
Oklahoma State: (10/11) at Missouri, (10/18) vs. Baylor, (10/25) at Texas

Penn State: (10/11) at Wisconsin, (10/18) vs. Michigan, (10/25) at Ohio State
Northwestern: (10/11) vs. Michigan State, (10/18) vs. Purdue, (10/25) at Indiana

BYU: (10/11) vs. New Mexico, (10/18) at TCU, (10/25) UNLV
Utah: (10/11) at Wyoming, (10/18) Colorado State, (10/25) BYE

Boise State: (10/11) at Southern Miss (10/17) vs. Hawaii (Fri), (10/24) at San Jose State (Fri)

Ball State: (10/11) at Western Kentucky, (10/18) BYE, (10/25) vs. Eastern Michigan

Tulsa: (10/11) at SMU, (10/18) UTEP, (10/26) Central Florida (Sun)

What's really surprising is that of the seven non-Big 12/SEC unbeatens, five come from non-BCS conferences. The Pac 10, ACC and Big East bring nothing to this group.


Although this article is titled "School Is Back In Session," there are a few handicapping trends we've noticed in the professional ranks that need to be discussed.


One is how horrible West Coast teams have performed on the road in 1:00 ET starts. Let's take a look at what happened on Sunday:

San Diego lost outright as a 6.5-point favorite at Miami
Seattle got crushed 44-6 at the Giants

How about the week prior?

Denver (-9.5) lost outright at Kansas City
Arizona got spanked by the Jets 56-35

How about the week before that?

Oakland (+10) did manage to cover at Buffalo
Arizona (+3) once again lost (this time to Washington, 24-17)

Note that nothing fit the bill in Week 2, but in Week 1, Seattle went to Buffalo and got hammered 34-10. Overall, that's a 1-6 pointspread mark by these road weary West Coast teams. Note that Oakland, with all the nonsense surrounding that franchise, is at New Orleans for an early start this week.

Ten Points Doesn't Mean What It Used To

Another group of teams you want to stay away from are double-digit favorites. On Sunday, Dallas failed to cover a monster 16.5-point spot at home against the Bengals. That really isn't that surprising considering that DD favorites are now 1-7 ATS this season! The lone cover was Carolina's (-10) 34-0 win over Kansas City. However, check out what happened prior to Week 5 when teams were laying ten or more points at the betting window.

New England (-16) beat KC, 17-10
Indianapolis (-10.5) LOST to Chicago, 29-13
NY Giants (-13) beat Cincinnati, 26-23 (needed OT)
New England (-12.5) LOST to Miami, 38-13
Buffalo (-10.5) beat Oakland, 24-23 (needed last second FG)
Dallas (-10.5) LOST to Washington, 26-24.

Incredibly, heading into Week 4, DD favorites were just 3-3 STRAIGHT UP! More stunning is the fact that all three SU winners needed to go the game's final play (New England made a goal line stand against KC). Yikes! Stay away from this group. In Week 6, red-hot Washington is a monster two-touchdown choice over the hapless Rams. Could Jim Haslett make a successful return to the head coaching fraternity? Not sure, but he could bring St. Louis backers some cash. At 0-4 ATS, they desperately need it.

We'll be back next week for another lesson!

Good Luck,

  • Solid info Lenny.

  • Really interesting stuff, Lenny.  Thanks.