CFB: School Is Back In Session

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CFB: School Is Back In Session

Rested vs. Unrested

Prior to last week's (9/20) games, we reported the ATS results of teams playing off a bye week against an opponent that is not. For this little "system" to work, note that it must be a weekend game, no weekday affairs allowed. On September 20th, taking rested vs. unrested foes yielded a 6-3 (67%) pointspread record. Here are the results from last Saturday.

Kentucky (-19) over Western Kentucky 41-3
Illinois (+15.5) over Penn State 21-35
Oklahoma (-18.5) over TCU 35-10
Oklahoma State (-17.5) over Troy 55-24
Nebraska (-7) lost to Virginia Tech 30-35
Cal (-25.5) over Colorado State 42-7
Washington (-3.5) lost to Stanford 28-35
San Diego State (-12.5) over Idaho 45-17
Nevada (+3.5) over UNLV 49-27
Hawaii (-3) lost to San Jose State 20-17
Bowling Green (-3) over Wyoming
North Texas (+15.5) lost to Rice 20-77

That's an 8-4 ATS record, equalling the percentage of rested vs. unrested teams the week prior. So, over the last two weeks, we are looking at a 14-7 ATS (67%) mark. Of the four teams that did not cover, three lost outright as favorites, all at home no less. North Texas was the only rested underdog could not take care of an unrested favorite. Both Illinois and Nevada did, but only Nevada won outright. That means of the eight teams that did cover, six were favored. Five of those teams played at home, the exception being Bowling Green. Rested double-digit favorites outperformed all other subgroups at a perfect 5-0 ATS.

Who is on tap for this situation this week? Twelve more games to look at. Here's a complete listing:

Vanderbilt (+3.5) vs. Auburn
Arkansas (+22) vs. Florida
Missouri (-10) at Nebraska
Texas Tech (-6.5) at Kansas State
Baylor (+27) vs. Oklahoma
Arizona State (+9.5) at California
Arizona (-19) vs. Washington
Georgia Tech (-14) vs. Duke
Miami (OH) (-7) vs. Temple
Air Force (-6) vs. Navy
Southern Miss (-8) vs. UTEP
LA Monroe (+1.5) vs. LA Lafayette

First thing that jumps out is that nine of the teams are playing at home this week. Last week, that number was eight. Only seven of the teams are favored, which is down from last week. There's only three of the "precious" double-digit favorites, two of which play at home. Arkansas might be one to stay away from as they will be hosting a Florida team off an embarrassing 31-30 loss to Ole Miss as 23.5-point favorites, a game which we had as our #1 College Football Underdog of the Month.


Let's change gears for a second and take a look at the remaining undefeated teams in the country. As we prepare to turn the calendar to October, 18 teams can still boast about having unblemished records. Surprisingly, none of them come from either the ACC or Pac 10. The most potential unbeaten teams that could be left at the end of the regular season and conference championships is nine, but that potential BCS mess is nothing more than a pipe dream after witnessing a weekend where six ranked teams lost to unranked opposition. Five of the teams hail from the Big 12, four of whom (Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech) rank in the top 7 in the country in the latest AP poll. Oklahoma and Missouri could potentially both be unbeaten and meet in the Conference Championship. The fifth team, Oklahoma State, just moved its way into the rankings.

The SEC, not surprisingly, ranks second with four remaining unbeaten teams. However, 50% of the quartet is a bit of a shocker. #2 Alabama, fresh off its destruction of Georgia, heads the list. After the Tide, its Kentucky, Vanderbilt and defending National Champion LSU. Before you ask, Alabama plays LSU in Baton Rouge on November 8th. But first, Nick Saban's team must host another of the unbeatens, Kentucky, this week.

No other conference has more than two unbeatens with the Big 10, Mountain West and Big East all making multiple contributions. Penn State has emerged as the team to beat in the Big 10 for now, but has a daunting upcoming schedule (see below). No one really believes in unranked 5-0 Northwestern. As always, the Big 10 screws things up and these two teams will not meet this year. The Mountain West would love nothing more than to have an unbeaten BYU squaring off against an unbeaten Utah in its regular season finale, with a potential BCS Bowl berth hanging in the balance. The Big East has both South Florida and Connecticut, who will meet on Sunday November 23rd.

Of the other three unbeatens, two are unranked (Tulsa and Ball State), joining Northwestern and Kentucky on that particular subgroup. The last remaining unbeaten we've failed to mention is Boise State, and we all know what the Broncos can do.

Here is what the 18 unbeatens have on tap for October. We'll be back later in the week with a more comprehensive breakdown of this week's matchups.

Alabama: (10/4) vs. Kentucky, (10/11) BYE, (10/18) vs. Ole Miss, (10/25) at Tennessee

LSU: (10/4) BYE, (10/11) at Florida, (10/18) at South Carolina, (10/25) vs. Georgia

Kentucky: (10/4) at Alabama, (10/11) vs. South Carolina, (10/18) vs. Arkansas, (10/25) at Florida

Vanderbilt: (10/4) vs. Auburn, (10/11) at Miss State, (10/18) at Georgia, (10/25) vs. Duke

Oklahoma: (10/4) at Baylor, (10/11) vs. Texas (at Dallas), (10/18) vs. Kansas, (10/25) at Kansas State

Missouri: (10/4) at Nebraska, (10/11) vs. Oklahoma State, (10/18) at Texas, (10/25) vs. Colorado

Texas: (10/4) at Colorado, (10/11) vs. Oklahoma (Dallas), (10/18) vs. Missouri, (10/25) vs. Oklahoma State

Texas Tech: (10/4) at Kansas State, (10/11) vs. Nebraska, (10/18) at Texas A&M, (10/25) at Kansas

Oklahoma State: (10/4): vs. Texas A&M, (10/11) at Missouri, (10/18) vs. Baylor, (10/25) at Texas

Penn State: (10/4) at Purdue, (10/11) at Wisconsin, (10/18) vs. Michigan, (10/25) at Ohio State

Northwestern: (10/4) BYE, (10/11) vs. Michigan State, (10/18) vs. Purdue, (10/25) at Indiana

South Florida: (10/2) vs. Pitt (Thurs), (10/11) BYE, (10/18) vs. Syracuse, (10/25) at Louisville

Connecticut: (10/4) at North Carolina, (10/11) BYE, (10/18) at Rutgers, (10/25) vs. Cincinnati

BYU: (10/3) at Utah State (Fri), (10/11) vs. New Mexico, (10/18) at TCU, (10/25) UNLV

Utah: (10/2) vs. Oregon State (Thurs), (10/11) at Wyoming, (10/18) Colorado State, (10/25) BYE

Boise State: (10/1) vs. Louisiana Tech (Wed), (10/11) at Southern Miss (10/17) vs. Hawaii (Fri), (10/24) at San Jose State (Fri)

Ball State: (10/4) at Toledo, (10/11) at Western Kentucky, (10/18) BYE, (10/25) vs. Eastern Michigan

Tulsa: (10/4): Rice, (10/11) at SMU, (10/18) UTEP, (10/26) Central Florida (Sun)

  • Good Stuff.  Another reason to stay off Arkansas for the rested vs. unrested is they didn't actually have a bye last week because they made up their Texas game last week.  Good Luck.