Larry Ness

Bowl Preview Part II

2011-12-09T17:09:16Z

Seventy teams played in last year’s 35 bowls with only 8-4 Temple and 6-6 Western Michigan getting left out among bowl-eligible schools. This year’s bowl season again features 35 games and again, just two schools were left out of the mix among bowl-eligible teams. Miami-Florida was 6-6 but had a self-imposed bowl ban, leaving 6-6 Ball State and 7-4 Western Kentucky as the only two schools not going ‘bowling’ among teams which were eligible. Western Kentucky, the little school from Bowling Green, Ky, deserves special mention.

The Hilltoppers own a proud basketball tradition, reaching the Final Four back in 1971 led by Jim McDaniels, losing in double-overtime to Villanova in the semifinals. However, football is another story. The school was a transitional member of the FBS in 2007 and 2008 and became full members (as part of the Sun Belt) in 2009, a year in which the team went 0-12. Western Kentucky lost its final eight games in 2008, before going 0-12 in 2009. The team then lost its first six games of 2010 before winning 54-21 at Louisiana-Lafayette on October 23, ending a 26-game losing streak, the longest among all NCAA divisions. Almost exactly a year later (10/22/11), Western Kentucky snapped an 18-game home losing streak in a 42-23 win over again, Louisiana-Lafayette. Western Ky opened the 2011 season 0-4 but finished the season on a 7-1 run in SBC play to finish second in the conference. However, while both Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida International (Western beat BOTH schools) got bowl bids out of the SBC (as did league champions Arkansas St), the Hilltoppers got left out. In the name of James McDaniels, I cry foul!

A total of 13 schools with 6-6 records got bowl bids this year, plus UCLA got an invite after a loss in the Pac-12 championship game gave the Bruins a 6-7 record. Four bowl games will feature 6-6 opponents, including UCLA as a 6-6 team. I’ll touch on all of those four contests as I offer a few random thoughts on the 2011-12 bowl season. In Part II of my Bowl Preview, I’ll cover games through December 28.

The bowl season opens on Saturday December 17 with three games. Temple missed out last year despite an 8-4 record but this year the Owls’ 8-4 mark was good enough to meet 8-4 Wyoming (off a 3-9 year) in the New Mexico Bowl. It’s rare that this bowl features two 8-4 teams and Temple hopes for the school’s second-ever bowl win in the its fourth bowl appearance (beat Cal 28-17 in the 1979 Garden State Bowl). Ohio U (9-4) is ‘bowling’ for the fourth time in Frank Solich’s seven years but has yet to win one. That’s nothing new, as the Bobcats are 0-5 all-time in bowl games. They meet Utah State on the blue turf of Boise for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Aggies won their final five games to finish 7-5, the school’s first winning season since 1996. The New Orleans Bowl completes Saturday’s action with 8-4 UL-Lafayette (off a 3-9 season) playing in its first-ever bowl game against San Diego State (also 8-4). The Aztecs lost their coach (Brady Hoke) to Michigan but are playing in back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1966 and 1967, when the school beat Montana State and then San Francisco State in consecutive Camellia Bowls. Now you KNOW, I couldn’t have made that up!

The bowl season resumes on December 20 in Florida with the Beef ’0’ Brady’s Bowl in St Petersburg. Florida International (8-4), only a full FBS member since 2005, is playing in its second straight bowl game, after winning a thriller over Toledo last year in the Little Caesars Bowl, 34-32. The Golden Panthers’ opponent is 6-6 Marshall, whose claim to fame in 2011 was beating Southern Miss 26-20 back on September 10. Up next is the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego (Dec 21), where 10-2 TCU faces 8-4 La Tech. The Horned Frogs have fallen a long way in just one season, as just last year, TCU became the first school from a non-automatic qualifying conference to play in the Rose Bowl since the advent of the BCS. TCU beat Wisconsin 21-19 to finish 13-0 and become the eighth team in the BCS era to finish a season undefeated and not win a national championship. One wonders how motivated TCU will be here, after back-to-back BCS Bowl games (lost 17-10 to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago). The Horned Frogs better be careful, as the Bulldogs enter this game on a seven-game winning streak. Note that La Tech lost 19-17 at 11-2 Southern Miss, 35-34 at 12-1 Houston and 26-20 in OT at the SEC’s Mississippi State.

The MAACO Las Vegas Bowl follows on Thursday (12/22) with Boise State facing Arizona State. Since I wrote Part I of this article, Boise State has joined the Big East, so I guess the team’s head coach Chris Peterson is now in favor of the BCS, because his Broncos can now earn a BCS Bowl bid by winning the weakest of all the automatic qualifying leagues. I agree that Boise State got a raw deal again this year (see Part I for all the details) but I don’t believe Peterson or anyone at Boise State will be shedding any tears for a school which finds itself in a similar situation to Boise this year, now that the Broncos are part of a BCS conference. And so goes the hypocrisy.

The Hawaii Bowl is being played Christmas Eve, featuring 7-5 Nevada and 11-2 Southern Miss, fresh off its 49-28 win over Houston in the C-USA championship game. Talk about being delusional. Golden Eagles’ head coach Larry Fedora was being interviewed right after the game and the sideline reporter correctly noted that Southern Miss’ win over Houston, knocking the Cougars out of a BCS Bowl game, cost C-USA some $15 million. Fedora's response was that it shouldn’t have, as Southern Miss was worthy of a BCS spot. Really? Now I give Southern Miss its due, as the team just completed its 18th consecutive winning season but a BCS Bowl bid? Southern Miss lost 26-20 at 6-6 Marshall and if that’s not enough to disqualify the not-so Golden Eagles, how about the team's 34-31 loss at 3-9 UAB, a team which they were favored against by just over three TDs? I will agree that Southern Miss gets an unworthy opponent in Nevada, a team which followed last year’s record-breaking 13-1 season (Wolf Pack ended the year 11thin the final AP poll) by going 7-5 overall and not winning a Boise State-less WAC in 2011. The good news for Southern Miss is, it’s hard to beat the venue (Honolulu)!

The only football on Christmas Day will be the Bears at the Packers in the NFL but it’s back to ‘bowling’ on the 26th, as the Independence Bowl features a pair of non-descript 7-5 teams, North Carolina and Missouri (only bettors will have much interest in this one). December 27th’s Little Caesars Bowl will have a hard time matching last year’s game. FIU rallied from a 24-7 deficit against Toledo to take a 31-24 lead with just over three minutes to go. However, the Rockets re-took the lead with a TD and two-point conversion with 1:18 left, only to see FIU kick the game-winning FG from 34 yards with 0:00 left on the clock. Purdue and Western Michigan were both 6-6 this year (the first of four bowls between 6-6 teams) with Purdue coming off three consecutive losing seasons and Western Michigan getting a bowl bid at 6-6, after being denied one in 2010 with the same record. Note that this is WMU’s fifth bowl invite and the Broncos are still looking for their first-ever win (0-4 all-time).

The Belk Bowl, formerly the Meinke Car Care Bowl, will also be played on the 27th in Charlotte. Louisville, which like Cincinnati, lost the Big East’s tie-breaker to West Virginia. So instead of representing the conference in a BCS Bowl, the 7-5 Cardinals (winners of five of their last six), take on 7-5 North Carolina St, playing in its home state. The Wolfpack finished with five wins in their last seven, including beating then-No. 7 Clemson 37-13 and Maryland 56-41 in their last two games. You just may have heard about the team’s final regular season game vs Maryland. The Terps led 41-14 with six minutes left in the third quarter but NC State then scored the next six times it touched the ball, in what incredibly is only the second-biggest comeback in ACC history (Clemson trailed Virginia 28-0 back in 1992 before winning, 29-28!).

Wednesday, December 28 features the Military Bowl from Washington, D.C and the Holiday Bowl from San Diego. Toledo (8-4) averages 42.3 PPG (8th) and 7-5 Air Force 34.4 PPG (22nd), so expect a high-scoring Military Bowl, weather permitting. Mack Brown came to Texas in 1998 and the Longhorns never won less than nine games (won 10 or more in nine straight years from 2001-09) in a season before falling to 5-7 in 2010. The Longhorns are back ‘bowling’ in 2011 at 7-5 and will face California. Jeff Tedford took over a Cal program in 2002, which hadn’t had a winning season since 1993. He went 7-5 in 2002 and then led the Bears to seven consecutive bowl appearances before finishing 5-7 last year. However, like Texas, Cal went 7-5 this year and that sets the stage for what is hardly an inspiring Holiday Bowl matchup.

Part III of my 2011-12 Bowl Preview will be available on Christmas Day, covering the 11 bowl games from December 29-31.

Good luck...Larry

2011-12 Bowl Season Preview (Part I)

2011-12-06T16:21:34Z

Boise State coach Chris Petersen unleashed his frustration with the BCS on Monday. His 11-1 Broncos finished No. 7 in the final BCS standings but were left out of all five of the BCS Bowls (national championship game plus the Fiesta, Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls). "Everybody is just very tired of the BCS," Petersen said. "I think that's the bottom line. Everybody is frustrated. Everybody doesn't really know what to do anymore. It doesn't make sense to anybody. I don't think anybody is happy anywhere."

Many of the people who decry the BCS just don’t seem to get it. The idea that the BCS has somehow “messed up” college football is patently false. College football has NEVER had a playoff system and has always been decided by a vote (subjective by its very nature), rather than determined strictly by the results on the field. I remember back in my youngers years (1960s and 1970s) when the year’s final No. 1 team (or in some case teams) in what then the two major polls (AP and UPI) were appropriately referred to as “the mythical national champions.” The BCS is far from perfect but I believe it’s the best format the sport has ever had, since it continues to seem unlikely that a playoff system will be implemented.

I think it’s likely safe to say that even Democrats and Republicans will likely agree that LSU is deserving of its spot in the national championship game and I refuse to waste time any more time discussing whether Alabama or Oklahoma St is the most-deserving opponent for the Tigers. However, I will point out to the BCS ‘bashers’ that without the current BCS system, the bowl matchups would have looked remarkably similar to the ones we will see this bowl season. “In the good old days,” LSU would have been sent to the Sugar Bowl as winners of the SEC while Oklahoma St would have been sent to host the Orange Bowl as the Big Eight champ used to be (that was also the case for the first two seasons of the Big 12 in 1996 and 1997). When the BCS came into being in 1998, the Big 12 champ (if not in the BCS title game) became the host or “anchor team” of the Fiesta Bowl. So either way one wants to look at it, pre-BCS, LSU and Oklahoma St would NOT have met in a bowl game this year.

Without the BCS, we would have had Wisconsin vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl, with LSU hosting the Sugar, Oklahoma St hosting the Fiesta and Clemson (winners of the ACC and now that bowl’s anchor team), hosting the Orange. Those three bowl committees (Fiesta, Orange and Sugar) would then have "’battled it out’ for which teams to match against those three conference champions. Would the Sugar have opted for a Alabama/LSU rematch? We’ll never know but since LSU is No. 1 and Alabama No. 2 in both traditional polls (AP and Coaches’), why wouldn’t that have been the choice? If so, then why wouldn’t the Fiesta have chosen Stanford for a Luck vs Weeden showdown. Moving to the Orange, with no guarantee for the pathetic Big East, the Orange would have been free to choose Michigan.

So there you have what the four major bowls would have likely looked like, pre-BCS. Just in case I’ve lost you, I’ll recap it. Alabama/LSU in the Sugar, Oregon/ Wisconsin in the Rose, Oklahoma St/Stanford in the Fiesta and Clemson/Michigan in the Orange. Sorry BCS haters, that lineup seems very familiar to what we currently have. The biggest injustice of Sunday’s bowl announcements was not Alabama playing LSU nstead of Oklahoma St but rather that Virginia Tech somehow ”earned” its way into a Sugar Bowl date with Michigan by embarrassing itself in losing the ACC championship game 38-10 to Clemson.

Let’s look a little closer. For the first time in its 14 years in the Bowl Championship Series, the Atlantic Coast Conference has had two teams selected to participate in BCS Bowl games in the same year. A check of the history books reveals that since 2005, the ACC has had 58 teams invited to postseason games. The SEC, with 61teams, is the only conference that has had more bowl teams during that span. That being said, no conference, even the much criticized Big East, has done as poorly in BCS Bowl games as the ACC has.

Florida State joined the ACC in 1992 and dominated its new league. The BCS was formed prior to the 1998 season and the Seminoles made the first three BCS championship games. They lost to Tennessee in the 1998 game, beat Va Tech (then a member of the Big East) in 1999 and then lost to Oklahoma in 2000. No ACC team has made a BCS title game appearance since and over the entire previous 13-year history of the BCS, an ACC team has won just one other BCS Bowl appearance. That win came at the end of the 2008 season, when Va Tech beat Cincinnati 20-7 in the Orange Bowl. Doing the math, ACC schools are a horrific 2-11 in BCS Bowl games and for us sports bettors, a money-burning 4-9ATS, as well. In comparison, the much-maligned Big East (since Miami-Fla and Va Tech left after the 2003 season) has gone 3-4 in BCS Bowl games, including West Va beating No. 8 Georgia 38-35 in the 2005 Sugar Bowl and the Mountaineers taking down No. 3 Oklahoma 48-28 in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

I began this article with a quote from Boise State head coach Chris Peterson and while I disagree with his overall assessment of the BCS, his team got a raw deal again this year. The Broncos have gone a spectacular 49-3 in the four years in which QB Kellen Moore has led this team and in only ONE of those seasons have the Broncos gone to a BCS Bowl (beat TCU 17-10 in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl). Incredibly, the team’s three losses during Moore’s four-year career have come by a grand total of just FIVEpoints. Missed FGs have cost the Broncos in each of the last two seasons and both times, Boise St has gone from a likely BCS Bowl berth to an appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl. Last year, Boise State faced a 10-2 Utah team but this year, to insult in injury, the Broncos draw Arizona State. The Sun Devils opened this year 6-2 but lost their final four games and fired head coach Dennis Erickson.

How Va Tech was chosen over Boise State just makes no sense. Also on the outside looking in on the BCS Bowl ‘pool’ were 10-2 Kansas State, which finished No. 8 in the final BCS standings and No. 12 Baylor, which may feature a Heisman-winner in QB Robert Griffin III (Va Tech’s final ranking was 11).

Join me Friday, as I conclude my initial 2011-12 Bowl Season preview with some random thoughts on this year’s entire bowl schedule. Just a note, my therapist calls it “thoughtful commentary.”

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (June 12)

2011-06-12T11:01:00Z

Miami won 92-84 in Game 1 of this year’s NBA Finals but then the next three games were decided by three points or less. The last time three consecutive games of an NBA Finals had been decided by three points or less came way back in 1948. That the set the stage for Game 5 on Thursday night with the series tied at two-all. NBA playoff history says that the Game 5 winner of a series tied at 2-2 has gone on to win 134 of the 161 previous series or 83.2 percent of the time, so clearly Game 5 had more than a little significance (more on that later). For the fourth consecutive time in this year’s Finals, the outcome was decided in the fourth quarter and for the fourth straight game, the Mavs outscored the Heat in the final period.

Thursday’s game saw both teams shoot well, as the Heat connected on 52.9 percent of their FG attempts while the Mavs made 56.9 percent of theirs. Each team scored a series high in points but Miami's 103 points fell nine points shy of the 112 points ‘rang up’ by Dallas. Dwyane Wade battled through a sore left hip after a first-quarter collision, to finish with 23 points while Bosh added 19 & 10. The main focus of course was LBJ, who came into this game off a playoff career-low of eight points in Game 4. While LeBron finished with a triple double (17-10-10), all anyone was talking about was his “disappearing act” in the fourth quarter, once again. That’s what happens when one tweets "Now or Never!!" on his Twitter page while later calling Game 5 “the biggest game of his career.”

The Mavs outscored the Heat 17-4 over the final 4:23 of Game 5, controlling the final minutes just as they had in comeback wins in Games 2 and 4. Dallas outscored Miami 22-5 over the last 6:19 of Game 2 to win 95-93 and 21-9 over the final 10:12 of Game 4 to win 86-83. In Game 3, Dirk scored Dallas’ final 12 points to bring his team back from an 81-74 deficit to tie the game at 86-all with 1:40 to go. The game could have gone either way at that point but the game’s only basket in the final 1:40 was Bosh’s game-winner with 39.6 seconds to go. Getting back to Game 5, LBJ scored just two points in the fourth quarter, on a meaningless layup late in the game. The man who entered the Finals having scored at least 11 points in a 4th quarter five different times in his first three 2011 playoff series, has now scored a total of just 11 fourth quarter points through five games of this year’s Finals!

In stark contrast, Dirk has scored 52 fourth-quarter points while averaging 28.1 PPG this series, connecting on 43-of-44 FTs (24-of-24 in the 4th quarter). Terry shot poorly in the first three games of the series (38.2 percent, including 4-of-12 on threes) but has scored 17 and 21 points the last two games, making 14-of-27 shots (51.9%), including 4-of-9 threes. Barea was terrific off the bench in averaging 11.4 PPG vs the Lakers and Thunder but had scored 11 points through the first three games of this year’s Finals. However, Rick Carlisle inserted him into the starting lineup for Games 4 and 5 and he’s scored 25 points, including 17 during Game 5 in which he made 4-of-5 three-pointers. Will Erik Spoelstra be able to make some adjustments of his own in Game 6?

When Miami won Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in games, it was pointed out that in the history of the 2-3-2 format, the Game 3 winner in a tied finals had won the championship all 11 previous times. That can’t be much of a confront for Miami now that it has lost two straight games, including an all-important Game 5. I noted earlier that the Game 5 winner of a series tied at 2-2 has gone on to win 134 of the 161 previous series (83.2 percent) but I will also note that the Game 5 winner of an NBA Finals tied at 2-2 has gone on to win the title a more modest 19 times in 26 previous tries (that’s 73.1 percent). Also note that in this 2-3-2 format, the Game 5 winner of a series tied at two-all has won just SIX of nine previous times, or “just” 67%.

Breaking that down even further reveals that four of those six winners were road teams which won Game 5, meaning those teams returned home for Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) with a 3-2 lead. In contrast, the five home teams which won Game 5 to go up 3-2, were forced to go on the road to clinch the title. Just two of those five (40%) were able to do so. The 1985 Lakers won Game 6 in Boston 111-100 in the very first year of the 2-3-2 format and the 1998 Bulls won 87-86 at Utah in Game 6, a contest punctuated by MJ’s game-winning jumper and memorable pose over Byron Russell (no push-off, right?). Teams which were not able to win the title after taking a 3-2 lead in the 2-3-2 format were the 1988 Pistons (lost Games 6 and 7 in LA to the Lakers), the 1994 Knicks (lost Games 6 and 7 in Houston to the Rockets) and last year’s Celtics, who lost Games 6 and 7 in LA to the Lakers.

The above would indicate that the Mavs’ best chance to close out the series would be to win in Game 6. That fits well with this stat, as Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle is a perfect 3-0 this postseason and 10-3 in his career in potential series-clinching games. That’s a winning percentage of .769, tying him with Tommy Heinsohn for the best win percentage in NBA history. However, the Heat were 9-0 SU (7-2 ATS) in the postseason (two non-covers came in eight-point wins) prior to their Game 2 loss, one in which the team led by 15 points with under 6 1/2 minutes to go in the game (see above).

“Zig-Zaggers” were a perfect 3-0 in this year’s Finals before losing with Miami in Game 5. They have now guaranteed themselves another losing postseason, as they are 31-31-3 ATS this postseason (minus-3.1 net games) with just two possible games remaining and would be on Miami again in Game 6, which starts at 8:00 ET on ABC Sunday night (current line as of 2:00 ET on Saturday is Miami minus-5 with a total of 187). Home teams are 54-26 (.675) this postseason, going 37-39-4 ATS. The Game 5 total ‘flew’ over, leaving the over/under record at 38 overs and 41 unders and one ‘push’ through 80 postseason games.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (June 9)

2011-06-09T18:27:00Z

Game 5 of the NBA Finals is set for 9:00 ET on ABC. One could argue that the Heat look like the better team but Miami sure hasn’t been able to close out games. The Mavs outscored the Heat 21-9 over the final 10:12 of Tuesday’s Game 4, giving them an 86-83 win and tying the series at two-all. The Heat went 1-of-9 on FG attempts over the final 7:23 of the game and LBJ failed to score in double digits for the first time in his playoff career (90 games). He finished with eight points (3-of-11 on FGs), ending a run of 433 consecutive games in which he had reached double figures (regular and postseason, combined). LeBron was widely criticized for his play last year vs the Celtics in last season’s postseason (while with the Cavs) and he’s feeling the ‘heat’ again now. He blew off talk that he was taking a backseat to Wade during crunch time after Game 3 (a two-point Miami win) but there was no denying he made no impact at all offensively in Game 4.

Collapses in “crunch time” have been the norm for Miami in this year’s Finals, as the Heat saw the Mavs outscore them 22-5 to end Game 2 and almost let a seven-point lead get away late in Game 3 before collapsing again in the fourth quarter of Game 4. As for the Mavs, they have now won SIX games this postseason after entering the fourth quarter behind on the scoreboard (own two comebacks from 15 points down!). Dirk has played through a torn tendon in his middle finger of his left hand plus played Tuesday night with a fever of 101 degrees. He’s put all his playoffs ‘demons’ in the past this postseason and got enough help from the rest of his teammates Tuesday night to secure the win. Can he get enough help again in Game 5?

NBA playoff history says that the Game 5 winner of a series tied at 2-2 has gone on to win 134 of the 161 previous series or 83.2 percent of the time. In particular, in this 2-3-2 format in the NBA Finals, we’ve seen nine previous series tied at two-all but the Game 5 winner has gone on to win the series only six times (that’s just 67 percent). A closer look reveals that the road team has won a Game 5 four times, winning each series while home team winners of Game 5 are just 2-3 in those series. That makes perfect sense, as Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) are both played on the home court of the team which played the middle three games on the road (see last year when Boston won Games 4 and 5 at home but lost Games 6 and 7 in LA).

After Miami won 92-84 in Game 1, the next three games have been decided by three points or less. The last time three consecutive games of an NBA Finals were decided by three points or less came way back in 1948. Tuesday’s loss was Miami’s fifth this postseason and the Heat have followed each of the previous four losses with a win. “Zig-Zaggers” are a perfect 3-0 in this year’s Finals and Miami has gotten all the action so far, as the game is pick’em as of 1:00 ET (total is 184 1/2). “Zig-Zaggers” are now 31-30-3 ATS for the postseason but still minus-2.0 net games. Home teams are 53-26 (.671) this postseason, going 36-39-4 ATS. The Game 4 total stayed under leaving the over/under record at 37 overs and 41 unders and one ‘push’ through 79 postseason games.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (June 7)

2011-06-07T18:18:00Z

The Heat jumped out to a 14-point lead on the Mavs in the second quarter of Game 3 but the Mavs did close the margin to five points (47-42) at the half. The second half was close most of the way but the Heat did take an 81-74 lead with about 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, Dirk would score all of the Mavs’ next 12 points, tying the game at 86-all with 1:40 to go. The game could have gone either way down the stretch, as the Mavs missed a great opportunity to take the lead after LBJ’s 24-second violation but Terry missed the potential go-ahead shot. Bosh made a 16-footer with 39.6 seconds to go, which turned out to be the game-winner.

It had to be a huge confidence boost for Bosh, who finished with 18 points on 7-of-18 shooting, as he had gone an awful 9-of-34 (26.5 percent) in the first two games of the series. Wade had 29-11-3 to lead the way for Miami (29.0 PPG in the Finals) while LBJ had a ‘quiet’ 17-3-9 (“just” 20.3 PPG in the series). The Heat count on their “Big 3 to get most of their points but all season long, the team’s overall defense (three guys can’t guard five, so everyone’s been involved) has been outstanding. The Mavs entered the Finals averaging 99.7 PPG this postseason but the Heat have held them to 88.3 PPG in the first three games. The Dallas bench entered averaging a postseason-high 39.4 PPG while shooting 45.8 percent but the reserves have been held to just 21.7 PPG on a dreadful 28.8 percent shooting. Terry’s accounted for the bulk of the scoring (14.3 PPG) with Barea being the biggest flop. He’s scored a total of just 11 points in the three games on 5-of-23 shooting (21.7 percent), after averaging 11.4 PPG vs the Lakers and Thunder.

Dallas had expected to be able to count on more than just Dirk but that hasn’t been the case. Dirk scored 15 of the team’s 22 points in the fourth quarter on Sunday, as his teammates combined for just seven points on 3-of-11 shooting (Marion and Terry were scoreless). The Mavs are already ‘dead’ if one looks at the history of the 2-3-2 format, as the Game 3 winner in a tied finals has won the championship all 11 previous times. That being said, the series has not been cancelled. No one should have expected the Mavs to win all three home games (which would have have amounted to a four-game sweep, considering Dallas had won Game 2 in Miami) but clearly the Mavs have to win the next two games. Winning either Game 6 or Game 7 in Miami would be a tough enough task but winning BOTH seems highly improbable.

The Miami win in Dallas on Sunday night drops home teams to 52-26 (.667) this postseason, going 36-39-3 ATS. The Game 3 total stayed under leaving the over/under record at 37 overs and 40 unders and one ‘push’ through 78 postseason games. “Zig-Zaggers” are now 2-0 in the NBA Finals, climbing back to 30-30-3 ATS for the postseason but still minus-3.0 net games, overall. The play tonight would be on Dallas, in a game scheduled for 9:00 ET on ABC with the Mavs favored by three points with a total of 186 1/2.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (June 5)

2011-06-05T13:23:00Z

Dwayne Wade knocked down a three-pointer with just over seven minutes to go In Thursday’s Game 2, giving the Heat an 88-73 lead at the end of a 13-0 run. The basket gave Wade 36 points for the game but he never scored again and the Heat were outscored 22-5 the rest of the way, as the Mavs ‘stole’ Game 2 to make this NBA Finals a series. Wade would take just two shots in the game’s final seven minutes while Miami combined to convert just 1-of-10 FGs. Wade added five rebounds and six assists to his 36 points while LBJ had modest totals of 20-7-8. Bosh had 12 points and eight rebounds but while he has 31 points and 17 rebounds in the first two games of the Finals, he’s made just 9-of-34 FGs (26.5 percent) while getting ‘schooled’ on defense by Dirk in Game 2’s fourth quarter.

Miami’s bench entered the Finals averaging only 18.1 PPG in the 2011 postseason but in Game 1, outscored the Dallas reserves 27-17. It marked just the 8th time in 98 games (including regular and postseason) that the Miami bench had outscored its opponents and the 10-point margin was the largest this season. However, Miami’s reserves scored only 11 points in Game 2, with Chalmers accounting for nine points (Haslem and Miller combined to play 44 minutes but made just 1-of-6 shots for two points). It’s hard to argue that Miami’s defense got shredded (Mavs scored 95 points but did convert 48%) but I will note that entering Game 2, the Heat had allowed an opponent to score more than 89 points without going into overtime just once in the previous eight games (lone exception was Game 1 of the Chicago series).

On to Dallas. The Mavs looked ‘dead in the water’ after Wade’s three-pointer but the team which has been best known for its playoff failures this past decade, is re-writing history this postseason. Dirk was terrific, making all the key plays down the stretch, including two left-handed layups despite his injured finger. Marion had 20 & 8, after getting 16 & 10 in Game 1. Chandler added 13 & 7 and Terry accounted for 16 of the team’s 23 bench points. The Dallas bench entered the Finals averaging a postseason-high 39.4 PPG while shooting 45.8 percent. The Dallas reserves were better in Game 2 (outscored its Miami counterparts 23-11) but after two games is averaging a modest 20.0 PPG on only 12-of-42 shooting (28.6 percent). The point being, the Mavs’ bench has yet to play a good game.

Dallas came back to win from 15 points down in the fourth quarter for the second time this postseason (the Mavs trailed the Thunder by 15 points with five minutes left in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, before winning in OT) and it marked the first time it’s happened in an NBA Finals since the Bulls did it against the Blazers in the 1992 Finals. The Dallas win makes the Mavs 11-2 SU (10-3 ATS) this postseason, since the team blew a 23-point lead to the Blazers in Game 4 of that first round series. The Mavs are 6-1 SU and ATS on the road in that span and Thursday’s win in Miami ended the Heat’s 9-0 (7-2 ATS) home winning streak this postseason. As I pointed out prior to Game 2, Game 1 winners under the current 2-3-2 format of the Finals (starting in 1985) have gone on to win 20 of the 26 titles. The Dallas win prevented the Mavs from falling into an 0-2 ‘hole,’ of which just one previous team had recovered from in 15 previous Finals since 1985.

The next three games are in Dallas but it should be noted that under the 2-3-2 format, just two teams have won all three “middle games” of the NBA Finals, the Pistons in 2004 and the Heat in 2006. Miami is a modest 4-3 SU this postseason away from home but did go 28-13 on the road during the regular season, tying Dallas for the NBA’s best away record. Sunday’s Game 3 is set for 8:00 ET on ABC. I’m sure you’ve read or heard this a million times by now but in the previous 11 times an NBA Finals has been tied at one-all in this 2-3-2 format, the Game 3 winner has gone on to capture the series each time. I guess that makes this game fairly significant.

The Mavs favored by 2 1/2 points and with a total of 188 1/2. Home teams are now 52-25 (.675) this postseason, going 36-38-3 ATS. I’m calling the Game 2 total a ‘push’ (first this postseason), so over/under bettors have seen 37 overs and 39 unders through 77 postseason games. “Zig-Zaggers” are 29-30-3 ATS (minus-4.0 net games) after winning with the Mavs in Game 2 and will have a play on the Heat in Game 3. However, a SEVENTH straight losing postseason ATS (last winning year was 2005, when it went 37-31-1 ATS), is all but assured.

Join me Monday for my next update, when I’ll ‘chime in’ on Shaq’s retirement and his place in NBA history. My next playoff journal will be Tuesday by 2:00 ET.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (June 2)

2011-06-02T18:30:00Z

Dallas and Miami opened the 2011 NBA Finals on Tuesday and after one quarter, the Mavs led 17-16. It was the lowest-scoring Game 1 first quarter of any NBA Finals in the shot clock era. It also tied as the fourth-lowest total for any Finals quarter since 1955. Dallas would lead 44-43 at the half and then score the first seven points of the second half to open a 51-43 advantage. However, the Heat would outscore the Mavs 22-10 over the remainder of the third quarter, with LBJ’s three-pointer at the buzzer giving Miami a 65-61 lead entering the final period. Miami would win the fourth quarter 27-23 and the game, 92-84. After averaging 105.2 PPG over five games while eliminating the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, the Mavs shot a postseason-low 37.3 percent. The 84 points were just two more than the team’s worst playoff effort this year, when the Mavs blew a 23-point lead in losing Game 4 of their first round series to the Blazers, 84-82.

Miami’s celebrated “Big 3” came through once again, as LBJ led with 24-9-5, Wade had 22-10-6 and Bosh chipped in 19 & 9. The team’s other two starters, Anthony and Bibby, did not score in a combined 32 minutes but reserves Chalmers (12), Haslem (7 & 6) and Miller (6 & 5) combined for 27 points, outscoring the Dallas bench by 10 points. It marks just the 8th time all season (over 98 regular and postseason games) in which Miami’s bench outscored its counterparts and the 10-point margin represents a season-high. While the Bosh, James and Wade trio again accounted for 71 percent of the Heat’s points, Miami’s team D was again a huge part of the story. Miami’s defense has been quite impressive, as only once in the last eight games have the Heat allowed an opponent to score more than 89 points without going into overtime (lone exception was Game 1 of the Chicago series).

Dirk had a ‘quiet’ 27 points, as he made a modest 7-of-18 FGs (was 12-of-12 from the FT line). Marion had 16 & 10 but the rest of the starters and particularly the team’s reserves, played way under par. The Dallas bench entered the Finals averaging 39.4 PPG (21.3 PPG more than Miami’s average of 18.1), but got outscored 27-17. Terry accounted for 12 of the 17 points but made just 3-of-10 FGs. The rest of the group added only five points and the unit which entered the game shooting 45.8 percent this postseason, combined to go 4-of-22 (18.2 percent) from the floor. Don’t tell me it was just bad shooting. To add insult to injury, Dirk tore the tendon on the middle finger of his left hand and he may have to wear a splint the rest of the series.

The Dallas loss ended the team’s five-game road winning streak this postseason and dropped the Mavs to 12-4 overall and 13-3 ATS. The Miami win ups the Heat’s postseason home record this year to 9-0 and 7-2 ATS while allowing 95 or fewer points in each game. Home teams are now 52-24 (.684) this postseason, going 36-37-3 ATS. Over/Under bettors have seen 37 overs and 39 unders through 76 postseason games in 2011 while “Zig-Zaggers” are 28-30-3 ATS (minus-5.0 net games), all but ensuring a SEVENTH straight losing postseason ATS (last winning year was 2005, when it went 37-31-1 ATS). Thursday’s play would be on Dallas. Game 2 is set for 9:00 ET on ABC with the Heat favored by 4 1/2 points and a total of 186 1/2.

Good luck...Larry

2011 NBA Finals and the 2-3-2 format

2011-05-31T15:01:00Z

The Spurs (the West’s No. 1 seed) got ‘bounced’ in the first round of this year’s postseason and the Bulls (the overall No. 1 seed) were eliminated in the conference finals by the Heat. That means that just two teams with the league’s best regular season record (the 2008 Celtics and the 2003 Spurs) have gone on to win the NBA title over the last 11 years, since the Shaq and Kobe-led Lakers of 1999-2000 won the first of three consecutive NBA championships after winning a league-high 67 games. However, it’s not as if the NBA playoffs have offered too many “surprise winners” as of late, or for that matter, since Bird and Magic entered the NBA for the start of the 1979-80 season. Of the 31 championship teams since that 1979-80 season, 15 (48.4 percent) have been teams which finished the regular season with the best regular season record (or tied for the best record). Nine champs have been teams which finished with its second-best mark and four others with its third-best record (including the Lakers last year).

That leaves just three champions from outside the top-three regular season records over the last 31 seasons (9.7 percent), although two of those champs have come in the last seven years. The 2003-04 Pistons finished at 54-28 (sixth-best mark) and the 2005-06 Heat owned a 52-30 mark that year, which represented the league’s fifth-best record that season. The 1994-95 Houston Rockets are the third team. The Rockets (the defending champs) finished with a record of 47-35, tied for the 10th-best mark during the regular season. However, they beat in order, the 60-22 Jazz, the 59-23 Suns and the 62-20 Spurs (owners of the league’s best record that season in David Robinson’s MVP year) in the Western Conference playoffs, to reach the NBA Finals. Waiting for them were the 57-55 Magic, led by Shaq and Penny. The Rockets swept the Magic in four games, giving Rudy T and Hakeem back-to-back titles and giving Clyde Drexler (who was acquired from Portland during the season in a trade), the lone NBA title of his Hall-of-Fame career. Houston’s ‘victims’ that postseason had a combined record of 238-90 (.726) during the regular season. No championship team, before or since, has beaten a more impressive group of challengers on its way to an NBA title.

The Heat and Mavericks have not exactly “come out of nowhere” this postseason. The Heat finished with the league’s third-best record (58-24) while the 57-24 Mavs tied with the Lakers for the NBA’s fourth-best mark. Both teams went 28-13 on the road, tying for the league’s best road record. Of course, “The Decision” made the Heat the team everyone loved to hate prior to the start of the season and while there have been plenty of ups and downs during the year, the Heat are right where they promised they would be. As for the Mavs, the team’s 57 wins were nothing new, as Dallas has won at least 50 games in each of the last 11 seasons. However, the Mavs have no titles and only one trip to the NBA finals to show for it. Worse yet, the Mavs lost that 2006 appearance against the Heat, after taking a 2-0 lead in games. The Mavericks led the Heat 89-76 with 6:30 remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 3 in that series as well, but Miami came back to win the game 98-96 and take the series with four straight wins. Dallas then went out the next season and after winning a league-best 67 games, became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 8 seed in the opening round since the league expanded those series to seven games. Dallas has not lived down those back-to-back seasons, since.

I guess it’s fitting that the Mavs draw the Heat in this year’s Finals. Let me also note that the Mavs are the only other team in the Western Conference to play in the NBA Finals since the strike-shortened 1998-99 season, other than the Lakers or the Spurs. The Lakers have made seven appearance (five wins), the Spurs four (four wins) and the Mavs two (‘06 and now 2011). Nowitzki entered this postseason as one of just four players in postseason history (Baylor, Hakeem and Pettit are the others) to have averaged at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in playoff history. He’s averaged 28.4 PPG (tied for his highest one year average) and 7.5 PPG (the lowest of his 11-year playoff career) this postseason, leaving him at 25.9-10.4, all-time. Terry is the team's second-leading scorer for Dallas this postseason (17.3) and while Marion (11.2) is the only other player averaging in double-figures, Dallas has gotten significant contributions from seven players (including Marion) other than Dirk and Terry.

The Mavs played excellent defense in eliminating the Blazers and Lakers (allowed just 88.2 PPG) and then needed to outscore the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, averaging 105.2 PPG to Oklahoma City’s 101.2. However, Dallas’ defense sure had something to do with the Thunder making just 7-of-46 three-pointers (15.2 percent) in Games 3-5, after they had tied the series at one-all with a Game 2 win in Dallas. Durant averaged 28.0 PPG and 9.4 RPG in the series but shot just 42.9 percent, including 7-of-30 (23.3 percent) on threes. Westbrook averaged 23.6-4.8-4.8 in the series but shot only 36.0 percent (2-of-10 on threes). By the way, Durant’s 28.6 PPG average this postseason, is just ahead of Nowitzki’s average, as the leading scorer of the 2011 playoffs. Durant was the NBA scoring champion this season (27.7 PPG) and with the Thunder eliminated it should be noted that no regular season scoring champion has won the NBA Finals championship in the same season since Shaq did so during the 1999-00 season.

Miami essentially sacrificed seasons for salary-cap space these last couple of seasons but that gamble paid off when LBJ and Bosh joined Wade last July (you may have heard about that?). The Heat were just 9-8 at Thanksgiving with speculation growing that head coach Erik Spoelstra could be fired plus criticism abounded that James' and Wade's styles couldn't work together. However, the Heat got it straightened out to finished the regular season 58-24 and the “Big 3” have led them in the postseason. James (26.0-8.9-5.5 APG) and Wade (23.7-7.2- 4.1) have alternated making big shots in the clutch while Bosh (18.6-8.9) has firmly grasped his role as the third scorer. Even scarier is that key reserves Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller are getting healthy at just the right time, after nearly season-long injuries. Miami held Boston to under 100 points in all five games of their semifinal series (an average of just 91.0 PPG) and then after losing 103-82 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference finals, won four in a row while holding Chicago to 83.3 PPG and 26.9 percent from beyond three-point range. It’s fair to say that three guys can’t guard five, so the rest of the Heat are contributing in ways other than scoring points.

Games 1 and 2 will be played in Miami on Tuesday and Thursday. Games 3, 4 and 5 will be in Dallas on June 5, June 7 and June 9 (more on the 2-3-2 format below). If necessary, Games 6 and 7 will be back in South Beach on June 12 and June 14. ABC televises all the games and tonight’s goes at 9:00 ET with the Heat favored by 4 1/2 points (total is 186 1/2). The Heat opened as a minus-$1.90 favorite to win the series and currently are about minus-$1.75. Dallas has won 10 of 11 games (5-0 on the road), since blowing a 23-point lead in the final 14 minutes of Game 4 of a first-round series against Portland. The Mavs are 12-3 SU and a remarkable 13-2 ATS this postseason plus have won 14 straight regular season games vs the Heat. In fact, Miami’s only wins vs the Mavs going back to 2004 have come in the 2006 NBA Finals, when the Heat won those four straight games, after Dallas had taken a 2-0 lead in that series. However, those were four “fairly important” victories, don’t you think? Home teams are 51-24 (.680) this postseason, going 35-37-3 ATS. Over/Under bettors have seen 37 overs and 38 unders through 75 postseason games in 2011 while “Zig-Zaggers” are 28-30-3 ATS (minus-5.0 net games), all but ensuring a SEVENTH straight losing postseason ATS (last winning year was 2005, when it went 37-31-1 ATS). That sets the stage.

2-3-2: Because of coast-to-coast travel in the early 80s (LA vs Boston or Philly was the matchup in FOUR of five NBA Finals from the 1979-80 season the 1983-84 season), the NBA changed its traditional 2-2-1-1-1 seven-game format in the Finals to the current 2-3-2 format for the 1984-85 postseason (also a Finals which featured Boston vs LA). The team with the home court advantage now opens and closes with two home games, while its opponent gets three consecutive home games in the middle (Games 3-5). At the time, the prevailing wisdom was that this new format could very possibly benefit the team without the home court edge. That hasn't been the case.

Over the last 26 NBA Finals, the team with the home court edge has won 20 of the 26 series played, or 76.9 percent. A closer look shows that over the last 26 years, teams playing Games 1 & 2 plus Games 6 & 7 at home are 50-20 or 71.4 percent in those contests. However, teams with Games 3 thru 5 at home have gone just 37-37 (50 percent) in that same span. Pointing out the disadvantage of this format even more to the team without the home court advantage, is this. Of the six teams which have won the title since 1985 without the home court edge in the Finals (the 1985 Lakers, the 1993 Bulls, the 1995 Rockets, the 1998 Bulls, the 2004 Pistons and the 2006 Miami Heat), history shows that those teams won not so much as a result of them winning their home games but rather by them being able to win their road games.

These six teams did go a combined 13-4 or .765 at home (just 7-4 prior to 3-0 sweeps by both Detroit in '04 and Miami in '06) but more importantly went 11-5 (.688) in their road games! What this points to is that having three consecutive home games in the middle of a seven-game series has certainly been no advantage and that makes sense. After playing Games 1 and 2 in Miami, the Heat and Mavs will head to Dallas for the next three games. The home court edge is mitigated, because the visiting team has almost an entire week in its opponent's city.

If Dallas is to win its first-ever NBA title (and avenge its loss in the 2006 Finals), history indicates that the Mavs will most likely have to do it by winning at least twice in Miami. It's not as if the Mavs can't win all three home games (remember, the Pistons did it in '04 and the Heat did it in '06) but it's highly unlikely that the Heat would lose three straight games in Dallas. After all, the Heat were 28-13 SU on the road during the regular season (NBA’s best mark) and have gone 4-2 away from home in the postseason. The good news here for Dallas fans is that like the Heat, the Mavs were 28-13 on the road during the regular season and after losing their first two road playoff games, have won five straight away games.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (May 27)

2011-05-27T18:16:00Z

The Bulls, like the Thunder vs the Mavs, were not able to match up with the Heat during ‘crunch time.’ The Bulls had EVERY chance to win Game 4, but eventually lost in OT. Then last night back home for Game 5, saw the Heat close with an 18-3 run in the final 3:03, closing out the series with an 83-80 victory. Miami made all six attempts from the floor (including three, three-pointers) in that stretch while the Bulls made 1-of-4 FG attempts with two turnovers during that span. Chicago was the NBA's best fourth quarter-team during the regular season with a plus-187 point differential in the final period and overtime but got outscored 106-73 by Miami in the fourth quarter (including an OT period in Game 4) of this series’ last four games.

The Bulls opened this series with a 103-82 victory but then never won another game. Coming back from a 20-point loss in Game 1 of a series to win, does not happen often. In fact, the Heat are the first team to do it since the Houston Rockets dropped Game 1 at Phoenix 130-108 in the 1995 Western Conference semifinals but rebounded to win that series in seven games. Twenty-three teams had lost Game 1 by at least 20 points since then without coming back to take a series. What makes Miami’s series win even more impressive is that the Bulls had entered the Eastern Conference finals without a three-game losing streak all season, yet Miami would beat them four straight times. Also note the Bulls had been 53-0 (regular season and postseason combined) in games in which they had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter this season, before last night’s collapse.

Miami’s “Big 3” did it again, accounting for 83.1 percent of the Heat’s points (69 of 83). LBJ led the way with 28 points (11 rebounds and six assists), Wade had 21 points and six rebounds (but NINE turnovers!) and Bosh 20 & 10. The other two starters (Anthony and Bibby) combined for three points while Miller (seven) and Chalmers (four) were the only players to score off the bench. Haslem went scoreless for the second straight game (played just under 26 minutes), after scoring 21 points in Games 2 and 3. However, he did grab 14 rebounds in Games 4 and 5. As for the Bulls, Rose had 25-5-8 but again made just 9-of-29 shots (2-of-8 on threes). The Bulls made 7-of-22 three-pointers last night, finishing 21-of-78 (26.9 percent) on threes in their four losses (made 10-of-21 in Game 1).

The Miami win and cover means home teams finished 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS in the conference finals. Home teams are 51-24 (.680) this postseason, going 35-37-3 ATS. The game went under, giving us 37 overs and 38 unders through 75 postseason games in 2011. “Zig-Zaggers” lost on Chicago, falling to 28-30-3 ATS (minus-5.0 net games) and all but ensuring a SEVENTH straight losing postseason ATS (last winning year was 2005, when it went 37-31-1 ATS). I’ll be back with my NBA Finals preview on Monday.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (May 26)

2011-05-26T19:02:00Z

The Mavs came from 15 points down with just under five minutes to go to win Game 4 in OT vs the Thunder and last night, closed out Oklahoma City with another late surge, outscoring the Thunder 14-4 in the last 4:37, turning a six-point deficit into a 100-96 win. Nowitzki hit a HUGE three with 1:14 left that put the Mavericks ahead for good and then made the game-clinching free throws. Since blowing a 23-point lead in the final 14 minutes of Game 4 of a first-round series against Portland, Dallas has won 10 of 11 games (5-0 on the road) to advance to the franchise’s second-ever NBA Finals. Don’t think it’s not a big deal. The Mavs are the only other team in the Western Conference to play in the NBA Finals since the strike-shortened 1998-99 season, other than the Lakers or the Spurs. The Lakers have made seven appearance (five wins), the Spurs four (four wins) and the Mavs two (‘06 and now 2011).

Dallas won but didn’t cover last night, breaking a stretch of 34 consecutive ATS wins by the SU winner this postseason. The Mavs are now 12-3 SU and a remarkable 13-2 ATS this postseason. Dirk had 26 points last night and has averaged 28.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG this postseason. Marion had a HUGE game (26 points and eight rebounds) while Barea (14-4-5) and Terry (12) added 26 points off the bench. Terry is the team's second-leading scorer for Dallas this postseason (17.3) and while Marion (11.2) is the only other player averaging in double-figures, Dallas has gotten significant contributions from seven players (including Marion) other than Dirk and Terry (more on that in my NBA Finals preview). One quick shout out to head coach Rick Carlisle. The Mavs are a perfect 3-0 this postseason in games in which they have had a chance to clinch a playoff series, giving Carlisle a 10-3 (.769) mark in potential series clinching games during his career. That ties him with Tommy Heinsohn for the best win percentage in such situations in NBA history. This guy is very underrated.

As for the Thunder, while Westbrook had 31 points (eight rebounds and five assists) and Durant 23, the other three starters (Ibaka, Perkins and Sefolosha) made a combined 1-of-8 shots for just two points while playing 56 minutes. Harden had 23 off the bench plus Collison added 12 points and 12 rebounds but the Thunder were again just awful from three-point range. In losing three straight games in this series to Dallas (after tying the series at one-all with a Game 2 win in Dallas), the Thunder made 7-of-46 three-pointers (15.2 percent) in Games 3-5. Durant averaged 28.0 PPG and 9.4 RPG this series but shot just 42.9 percent, including 7-of-30 (23.3 percent) on threes. Westbrook averaged 23.6-4.8-4.8 in the series but shot only 36.0 percent (2-of-10 on threes).

The Dallas win and non-cover makes home teams 5-4 SU but 4-5 ATS in the conference finals. Home teams are now 51-23 (.689) this postseason, going 35-36-3 ATS. The game went under, giving us exactly 37 overs and 37 unders through 74 postseason games in 2011. “Zig-Zaggers” ended a three-game losing streak with an ATS win on the Thunder but remain sub-.500 this postseason at 28-29-3 ATS (minus-3.9 net games). The play tonight would be on the Bulls, who host the Heat in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals at 8:30 ET on TNT. Chicago is favored by three points and the total is 180.

The Bulls had EVERY chance to win Game 4, despite once again, playing far from a perfect game. However, the team which was the NBA's best fourth quarter-team during the regular season with a plus-187 point differential in the final period and overtime, failed down the stretch on Tuesday night. Miami outscored Chicago 22-17 in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and then 16-8 in the OT, to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. I say commanding because in NBA playoff history, just EIGHT teams have overcome 3-1 deficits in a a best-of-seven series to come back and win. The Bulls have been outscored 80-55 by the Heat over the last three games in the fourth quarter (plus Game 4’s OT).

The Heat are just one win away from the team’s second-ever appearance in the NBA Finals and that was “the plan” when LeBron made “The Decision.” LeBron and Bosh joined Wade in Miami and the team's “Big 3” has been just that this postseason. LBJ has averaged 25.9-8.7-5.4, Wade 23.9-7.3-4.2 and Bosh 18.5-8.9. The team’s fourth-best scorer is Jones at 6.5 PPG. However, the guy who stunned the Celtics with 25 points in Game 1 of the Boston series, has totaled a modest 15 points the last eight games, not even being used in the last two. However, while Miami’s supporting cast has not contributed all that much offensively, the Heat have continued their excellent team defense this postseason (have allowed 88.9 PPG) and that takes more than just three players.

However, the Bulls hadn’t lost three straight all season until this series and let’s not forget this team was a league-best 36-5 SU at home during the regular season. The Bulls have remained the NBA’s stingiest defensive team in this year’s postseason, as no team is allowing less than the 86.8 PPG that they are. Only Miami owns a better defensive FG percentage than the Bulls (just barely, 42.3 to Chicago’s 42.5) and the Bulls own the top rebounding margin of any postseason team at plus-6.27 per game (more than double that of Miami’s 3.07). That sets the stage for tonight’s game.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Journal - Wed May 25

2011-05-25T16:31:00Z

The Thunder closed as four-point favorites in Game 4 and could have easily won and not covered Monday night. However, the Mavs not only came all the way back from 15 points down with under five minutes to go by ending regulation on a 17-2 run but also went on to win outright in OT, 112-105. Last night’s game saw a 19-4 run by the Bulls, followed by a 29-9 spurt for the Heat and then another 18-7 run by the Bulls, all in just the first half. Chicago led 46-44 at the half and while the Bulls led by as many as eight in the third, never pulled away, entering the final quarter with a five-point lead. Both teams had chances to win at the end of regulation but the game went into OT, where the Heat won and COVERED, 101-93! We’ve now gone 34 consecutive postseason games in which the SU winner has also been the ATS winner (last team to win and not cover was Oklahoma City in its Game 5 win over Denver back in the first round).

Rose led Chicago with 23 points, Boozer added 20 & 11, Deng had 20 points plus Noah had 14 rebounds. However, Rose shot poorly again (8-of-27), including 1-of-9 on threes. The Bulls had made just 8-of-32 three-pointers in Games 2 and 3 and again shot just 25.0 percent from beyond the arc, making 6-of-24 for the game. LBJ was great for the Heat, scoring 35 points while going 13-for-13 from the free-throw line (his best playoff showing ever), Bosh made 10 of his 11 free throws (had 22 points and has averaged 24.0 PPG this series) and Miami made its final 24 free throws of the game (finished 32-of-38). Wade shot poorly (5-of-16) and scored 14 points with five rebounds and only one assist but Chalmers had nine points off the bench and Mike Miller, who entered last night’s game with a total of seven points this entire postseason, scored 12 points and added nine rebounds in 26 minutes (now how is that possible?).

The Bulls won Game 1 of this series 103-82 but have now lost three straight, the first time all season they’ve done so. The Bulls were the NBA's best fourth quarter-team during the regular season with a plus-187 point differential in the final period and overtime but have been outscored 80-55 by the Heat over the last three games in the fourth quarter (plus last night’s OT). The Miami win makes home teams 4-4 SU and ATS in the conference finals Home teams are now 50-23 (.685) this postseason, going 35-35-3 ATS. The game went over, giving us 37 overs and 36 unders through 73 postseason games in 2011. “Zig-Zaggers” lost for a third straight time (had been on a 5-0 run, prior to that), leaving them 27-29-3 ATS (minus-4.9 net games) this postseason. The play tonight would be on the Thunder, who visit the Mavs in Dallas for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals at 9:00 ET on ESPN. Dallas is favored by 6 1/2-points and the total is 198 1/2.

Both Miami and Dallas now lead their respective series three games to one and since only eight teams in NBA postseason history have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a best-of-seven series, it sure looks as if it’s going to be Dallas/Miami in the NBA Finals, a rematch of the 2006 Finals (more on that, if and when, it occurs).

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (May 24)

2011-05-24T19:24:00Z

The Mavs have won at least 50 games in 11 straight seasons but have no titles and only one trip to the NBA finals to show for it. Worse yet, the Mavs lost that 2006 appearance against the Heat, after taking a 2-0 lead in games. The Mavericks led the Heat 89-76 with 6:30 remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 3 in that series as well, but Miami came back to win the game 98-96 and take the series with four straight wins. Dallas then went out the next season and after winning a league-best 67 games, became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 8 seed in the opening round since the league expanded those series to seven games. Dallas has not lived down those back-to-back seasons, since.

Could this be the year that all changes? The Mavs (and in particular Dirk), are sure giving us plenty of reasons to think that this is the team's year. The Thunder opened last night’s game by making their first nine shots (Durant opened 5-of-5) and when Durant nailed a three-pointer with 5:06 remaing in the game, Oklahoma City led 99-84. However, the Thunder would convert just one basket the rest of the way, as the Mavs outscored them 17-2, sending the game into OT at 101-all. Dallas’ first lead of the game wasn’t until Nowitzki hit two free throws, 16 seconds into overtime. The Mavericks never let the Thunder back in, winning 112-105.

The Mavericks are the only team in the last 15 seasons to win a playoff game in which it trailed by 15 or more points with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Amazingly, the Thunder outrebounded the Mavericks 55-33 (plus-22) in the Game 4 loss, the largest rebounding advantage in a postseason loss since the 76ers lost to the Bullets (now Wizards) April 18, 1986 despite outrebounding them by 58-29 (plus-29). It marked the Thunder’s first consecutive losses this postseason and the team’s first back-to-back home losses in six months. The Mavs now lead 3-1 in games and the Thunder face the realization that only eight teams in NBA postseason history have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit, including just two teams having done so without the benefit of home court advantage in Game 7 (Houston did it in the 1995 Western Conference semifinals vs the Suns and Boston in the 1968 Eastern Conference finals vs the 76ers).

Nowitzki scored 12 points during the Mavs' closing 17-2 run, including the game-tying free throws with 6.4 seconds left in regulation. He finished with 40 points, the seventh 40-point game of his postseason career. Terry added 20 points (has averaged 22.0 PPG in Games 1 & 4 but has scored a total of just 21 points in games 2 & 3) and Kidd added 17 ( has averaged 14.3 PPG the last three games). Durant finished with 29 points and 15 rebounds for the Thunder while Ibaka had his best game in a quite awhile (18 & 10) and Westbrook added 19-8-8. However, the Thunder made just 2-of-13 threes, following their Game 3 effort in which the they made only 1-of-17. That won’t cut it. The Mavs are now a remarkable 13-1 ATS this postseason.

The Dallas win dropped home teams in the second round to 3-4 SU and ATS. Home teams are now 49-23 (.681) this postseason, going 34-35-3 ATS. The game went over, giving us 36 overs and 36 unders through 72 postseason games in 2011. “Zig-Zaggers” lost with the Thunder, leaving them 27-28-3 ATS (minus-3.8 net games) this postseason. The play tonight would be on the Bulls, who visit the Heat in Miami for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals at 8:35 ET on TNT. Miami is favored by five points and the total is 179. The Thunder could have easily won and not covered last night but Dallas, which closed as a four-point underdog, did win outright in OT. We’ve now gone 33 consecutive postseason games in which the SU winner has also been the ATS winner (last team to win and not cover was Oklahoma City in its Game 5 win over Denver back in the first round). That streak has to end sometime, right?

We expected Miami/Chicago to be a defensive-oriented series, as the Bulls (43.0) were No. 1 in FG percentage allowed and the Heat No. 2 (43.4), during the regular season. Chicago won Game 1 by the impressive score of 103-82 but Chicago has managed just 160 points in Games 2 and 3, its lowest two-game total of the season. The Bulls led 26-19 at the end of the first quarter of Game 2 but over the next seven quarters, have been held to an average of just 19.1 points per quarter by the Heat ‘D.’ It’s true that the Heat rely almost exclusively on their “Big 3” to score the points but Miami’s team D has been outstanding all season. Rose, the regular season MVP and easily Chicago’s leading scorer this postseason at 27.6 PPG, has made just 15-of-42 (35.7%) from the floor in the last two games, as Miami’s defensive schemes have really bothered him while the Bulls just haven’t found “other scoring options” since the first quarter of Game 2. Boozer had his best numbers of this postseason with 26 points and 17 rebounds in Game 3 but couldn’t contain Bosh (34 points), who has been outstanding during the Eastern Conference finals, shooting 65.9 percent and averaging 24.7 PPG.

Is it good news or bad news that Chicago held LBJ and Wade to a combined 12-of-30 from the floor in Game 3? It was clearly an outstanding effort but the Heat won by 11, despite their best scorers NOT playing their best. Are the Bulls in trouble here?The Heat are the only unbeaten team at home in these playoffs, having won all seven games while going 5-2 ATS. However, both non-covers were eight-point wins, a margin which would be enough to cover this number. The Bulls lost back-to-back games for just the 5th time this season on Sunday night. However, they have yet to lose three in a row. Chicago has won the next game following a two-game losing streak the previous four times. That sets the stage.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (May 23)

2011-05-23T19:07:00Z

The Bulls did a good job against LBJ and Wade last night, holding that pair to a combined 12-of-30 (40 percent) from the floor. However, Chicago could not do anything with the third member of Miami’s “Big 3,” Chris Bosh. Bosh did miss his first three shots but then connected on 13 of his final 15, on the way to a 34-point night. LBJ finished with 22 points, six rebounds and 10 assists while Wade added 17 points, nine rebounds and three assists. Anthony and Bibby (the other two starters) combined for nine points with only Haslem (eight) and Chalmers (six) scoring off the bench. Again, Miami’s “Big 3” accounted for 73 of Miami’s 96 points (76 percent).

The Heat made 50.7 percent of their shots against the team which owned the NBA’s lowest FG percentage against (43.0) this regular season. Haslem has now scored 21 points while grabbing nine rebounds the last two games, which may not be a good sign for the remaining teams in this year’s postseason. Miami is now 7-0 SU at home in the playoffs and handed the Bulls their first back-to-back losses since February 5-7. Boozer (26 & 17) had his best game of the postseason but Rose had a ‘quiet’ 20 points (8-of 19 FGs) while Noah was a non-factor, scoring one point and grabbing only five rebounds in 29 minutes. Chicago shot only 41.6 percent as a team, including 2-of-12 on threes. The Bulls made 10-of-21 threes in Game 1 but have now made only 8-of-32 (25.0 percent) the last two games.

The Miami win evened the record of home teams in the second round to 3-3 SU and ATS. Home teams are now 49-22 (.690) this postseason, going 34-34-3 ATS. Sunday’s game went over, giving us 35 overs and 36 unders through 71 postseason games in 2011. “Zig-Zaggers” lost with the Bulls, ending a five-game winning streak and leaving them 27-27-3 ATS (minus-2.7 net games) this postseason. The play tonight would be on the Thunder, who host the Mavs in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals at 9:00 ET on ESPN. Oklahoma City is favored by four points and the total is 195 1/2.

The Mavs took a 2-1 lead in this series by winning Saturday night, 93-87. After seeing the Thunder score 112 and 106 points in the first two games, the Mavericks intensified their defense in Game 3. Despite shooting a modest 43.9 percent themselves, they allowed the Thunder to shoot only 36.5 percent, including 1-of-17 on threes. Durant scored 24 points but made just 7-of-22 FGs (hit 10 of 11 FTs), including 0-of-8 on three-pointers. Westbrook scored 30 points for Oklahoma City but the team's bench, which outscored Dallas’ 50-29 in Game 2, contributed only 16 points, as only Collison (nine) and Harden (seven) scored. Harden had 23 points in Game 2, Maynor had 13 but went scoreless in Game 3, as did Cook, who had chipped in eight points in Game 2.

Nowitzki made just 7-of-21 shots for the Mavs and finished with 18 points. The only other postseason game in which he has finished with fewer points, came in the team's 122-86 blowout loss in eliminating the Lakers in Game 4 of that series. His four rebounds were a playoff-low this postseason. Marion also had 18 points while Chandler’s eight points and 15 rebounds were huge. Kidd and Terry each had 13, although Kidd made just 4-of-10 FGs and Terry just 3-of-9. It’s now Oklahoma City’s turn to bounce back in Game 4. Can the Thunder pull it off? The Mavs are 12-1 ATS this postseason but let’s also note how well this Oklahoma City team has played after March 1. The Thunder went 19-5 to close the regular season (13-4 in games played with Perkins) and in the postseason, have rebounded from each previous loss by winning their next game. In fact, the Thunder have lost back-to-back games only once (April 1 and 2) since March 1. The again, Chicago hadn’t lost consecutive games since early February, before last night.

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (May 19)

2011-05-19T18:13:00Z

Miami’s “Big 3” accounted for 83 points in its Game 4 win at Boston and when the Heat closed out the Celtics back in Miami in Game 5, the “Big 3” accounted for 81 points. Bosh, LBJ and Wade accounted for a total of just 63 points in Game 1 vs Chicago, as the Bulls routed the Heat 103-82. Miami's “Big 3” again scored 63 points in Game 2 last night but so many other things were different. First off, it was LBJ and Bosh leading the way, not Bosh. Bosh had 30 & 9 in Game 1 but just 10 & 8 last night. LBJ and Wade rebounded from shooting a combined 37.5 percent in Game 1 (while combining for just 33 points) by converting 20-of-37 FGs last night (54.1 percent) while scoring 53 points and adding 19 rebounds.

The Miami defense also rose to the challenge last night, holding the Bulls to just 75 points, after allowing 103 in Game 1. The Bulls converted 10-of-21 three-pointers in Game 1 but just 3-of-20 last night, while also ‘shooting themselves in the foot’ by missing 10 of 26 free throws. Rose scored 21 points but made just 7-of-23 FGs while both Deng (13 points on 5-of-15 shooting) and Boozer (seven points on 3-of-10 shooting) had “off nights.” The ‘hidden story’ may have ben the play of Udonis Haslem. He was injured back on November 20 and had played just three minutes in Game 4 of the Boston series and four minutes in Game 1 of this series (zero points) before last night. Haslem played 23 minutes in Game 2, making 5-of-10 FGs for 13 points while adding five rebounds. If he’s healthy and can contribute like last night, he could be the “X-factor” for Miami. We’ll see.

The 75 points was Chicago's lowest output of this postseason and the teams combined to score only 24 points in the fourth quarter (Miami, 14-10). The 24 points is tied for the third-fewest points in any fourth quarter in NBA history since the introduction of the shot-clock for the 1954-55 season. Miami’s win drops home teams to 2-1 SU and ATS in this round and to 48-20 (.706) this postseason (33-32-3 ATS). The 85-75 final easily stayed under, making it 33 overs and 35 unders through 68 postseason games in 2011. “Zig-Zaggers” won with the Heat (and will have the Thunder tonight) but remain a losing proposition this postseason, at 25-26-3 ATS (minus-3.6 net games).

Game 2 of the Western Conference finals is tonight at 9:00 ET on ESPN. The Mavs are favored by 5 1/2 points and the total is currently 200 1/2. Will we ever see a chink in the armor of the Mavs this postseason? The Mavs took care of Portland in six games (6-0 ATS), swept the Lakers (4-0 ATS) and then Dirk provided everyone with one of the NBA playoffs’ greatest-ever shooting performances (48 points on 12-of-15 FGs and 24-of-24 FTs), as the Mavs opened the Western Conference finals with a 121-112 Game 1 win on Tuesday. That’s SEVEN straight postseason wins for Dallas, which has gone 9-2 this postseason, including 11-0 ATS (Dallas have covered 15 straight going back to the last four games of the regular season). It’s almost impossible to believe. NBA postseason series are all about making adjustments and we saw that last night with the Heat, who after allowing the Bulls to score 103 points in Game 1, held Chicago to just 75 points in a 10-point win in Game 2. Can the Thunder do the same?

Good luck...Larry

NBA Playoffs Journal (May 18)

2011-05-18T18:20:00Z

The Memphis/Oklahoma City series was the only one of this postseason’s first two rounds (12) to go the distance. The Thunder won that game 105-90, as home teams moved to 86-21 in Game 7s all-time in NBA playoff history (58-14 since the ABA/NBA merger in 1976-77). The Thunder had a quick turnaround, as they opened the Western Conference finals against the Mavs last night, who hadn’t played since ‘sweeping’ the Lakers out of this year’s postseason back on May 8. The Mavs beat the Lakers 122-86 in that game, converting 60.3 percent from the floor, including making a record-tying 20 three-pointers (on 32 attempts). The Mavs were 9-of-23 from behind the arc last night but made 53.4 percent of their shots overall plus 34-of-36 FTs to score 121 points (not much rust, after all).

Dirk Nowitzki scored 48 points, converting 12-of-15 FGs plus 24-of-24 free throws, which set an NBA playoff record for most consecutive FTs made without a miss in a single game (Pierce was 21-of21 for the Celtics back in 2003 vs the Pacers). The 48 points is the most by any player this postseason and two shy of his own personal playoff high. Terry, the team's second-leading scorer in both the regular and postseason, added 24 while Barea, showing no ill-effect from Bynum’s “cheap shot,” scored 21. Kevin Durant, who scored 39 points in Oklahoma City’s Game 7 win last Sunday, scored 40 points (he was 18-of-19 on FTs), joining Nowitzki in becoming just the third set of opposing players to have scored at least 40 points in Game 1 of a playoff series in NBA history. Westbrook, the second-half of the Thunder’s “Dynamic Duo” had 20 points but made only 3-of-15 FGs while adding just three rebounds and three assists.

Dallas’ 121-112 win was its seventh consecutive postseason win this year, upping the team's record to 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS in this year’s playoffs. The Mavs are actually on a 15-game ATS winning streak, if one goes back to the end of the regular season. Home teams were 46-19 SU and 31-31-3 ATS through the first two rounds of this postseason but have opened 2-0 SU and ATS in the conference finals with wins by Chicago and Dallas in their respective Game 1s. Both of the Game 1s went over, as overs are now just one behind unders (33-34), through this year’s 67 postseason games. Those following the Zig-Zag Theory are 24-26-3 ATS (minus-4.6 net games) so far, and have a play on Miami tonight.

The Eastern Conference finals resume tonight with the Miami in Chicago at 8:35 ET on TNT. Game 1 winners have won 78.6 percent of all best-of-7 series in NBA playoffs history, so both the Heat and Thunder will have their work cut out for themselves. The Bulls dominated the Heat on the boards 45-33 in Game 1 of the series, grabbing 19 on the offensive end which led to them outscoring the Heat 31-8 on second-chance points. Rose led with 28 points, Deng added 21, Boozer 14 & 9 and Noah 9 & 14. The Chicago bench scored 28 points.

Miami’s “Big 3” accounted for 83 of the team's 98 points (84.7 percent) in its Game 4 win at Boston and when the Heat closed out the Celtics back in Miami in Game 5, the “Big 3” accounted for 81 of Miami’s 97 points (83.5 percent). Bosh, LBJ and Wade accounted for a total of just 63 points in Game 1 vs Chicago, as the team’s other two starters (Anthony and Bibby) added four points in 54 minutes while the bench contributed 15 points (13 less than Chicago’s). Bosh had by far the best game (30 & 9) while LBJ made 5-of-15 shots (15-6-6) and Wade 7-of 17 (18-3-3). We hear all the time about making adjustments in postseason series and clearly Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will have to come up with something new both offensively and defensively. The Bulls are favored by 2 1/2 points and the total is 181 1/2.

Good luck...Larry