The saying goes "home is where the heart lies." Home teams have sure taken that to 'heart' in this year's postseason. The first set of 16 games saw the higher-seeded teams at home and they went 13-3 (10-6 ATS). Change of venues for the next set of 16 games (now teams at home were the lower-seeded clubs) didn't much change things, as home teams went 11-5 (11-5 ATS). Throw in last night's Por/Pho Game 5 (win and cover by the Suns) and home teams are off to a terrific 25-8 start this postseason (.758), while going a "money-making" 22-11 (67%) ATS.
The Magic became the only team to sweep a first round series, when they finished off the Bobcats last night, 99-90. Dwight Howard was in foul trouble for the fourth straight game (fouled out after playing just 23 minutes). It marked the second straight game in which he fouled out (had five fouls in each of the series' first two games) and Howard ended the series averaging modest 26.5 MPG (career average is 35.7 MPG). While the defensive player of the year blocked 20 shots in his limited action, he was held to 9.8 PPG and 9.3 RPG plus was an awful 13-of-35 (37.1 percent) from the FT line (career mark is 59.9 percent). Can the Magic continue to advance with Howard playing like this?
Up next for the Magic will be the winner of the Hawks/Bucks series, which is all of a sudden tied at two-all. The Bucks averaged a modest 89.0 PPG while shooting 43.0 percent from the floor in falling behind 0-2 in Atlanta. However, a return to Milwaukee saw them shoot a blistering 53.0 percent from the floor and average 109. PPG (won last night, 111-104). Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. The Hawks ended an eight-year playoff drought three years ago but over that span, have gone 1-10 on the playoff road, getting outscored on average 100.6-to-80.8 PPG while getting out-shot 48.2-to-38.7 percent.
NBA history tells us that when a best-of-seven series is tied at two-all, the winner of Game 5 eventually wins the series 83 percent of the time. That spells good news for Phoenix fans, as the Suns took a 3-2 lead in their series over the Blazers last night, winning 107-88. Brandon Roy played just 19 minutes (was 2-of-7 for five points) and the Blazers were no match for the Suns. Phoenix was led by Channing Frye's 20 points and eight rebounds (Frye had scored just 14 points the previous three games) and Dudley's 19 points (he had scored just 13 points the entire series!). The Suns have won games by 29, 19 and 19 points, while the Blazers' two wins have been by five points (Game 1) and nine points (Game 4).
Two of last night's three games went 'over,' leaving over bettors slightly ahead through 33 games, at 17-14-2. Those following the Zig Zag theory fell to 12-13 ATS to-date, after dropping two of three games. Four more games are on tap tonight, including another TNT doubleheader. Boston, Cleveland and San Antonio all lead 3-1 in their respective series with NBA history telling us that teams with 3-1 leads in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win that series 181 of 189 times (that's 95.8 percent!). The Thunder and Lakers are tied at two-all and I've already mentioned how important Game 5 is in that scenario.
The Cavs host the Bulls in the first game of the TNT doubleheader at 8:05 ET, with Cleveland a 12-point favorite (total is 199). The Lakers host the Thunder in the nightcap at 10:35 ET. LA is favored by six points with a total of 193. In the other two games, the Celtics are favored by six points (total of 188) over the Heat in Boston while the Mavs are favored by five points over the Spurs (total is 193) in Dallas.
Good luck...Larry