We saw the home teams go 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS in the first set of 16 games (higher seeds at home) but in recapping a busy weekend (Fri-Sun) of NBA playoff action, we've also seen home teams continue to do well in this next set of 16 games. Home teams have gone 10-4 SU and ATS, with two more series being contested tonight (more on that later). Doing the math, home teams are 23-7 (.767) and 20-10 ATS (66.7 percent) through 30 games. There have been 15 'overs' and 13 'unders' with two 'pushes.' Those following the Zig Zag system are not surprisingly, just 11-11 ATS (see 4/20 journal).
The East has pretty much "played to form," as the top-seeded Cavs lead the Bulls 3-1, the Magic have a chance tonight to complete the lone first-round sweep by winning at Charlotte, the third-seeded Hawks lead the Bucks 2-1 and could make it 3-1 with a win tonight, plus the fourth-seeded Celtics lead the Heat 3-1. Only a loss by the Hawks tonight would leave any one of the East's top seeds in a vulnerable position and even that is somewhat of a stretch, as the Bucks hardly look as if they are capable of winning in Atlanta.
However, the West has been a completely different story. The Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed and the defending champs, find themselves tied two-all and just 1-3 ATS in their series with the Thunder (Lakers lone cover came by a half-point). So far, the series' two-best performers play for the Thunder. Durant is averaging 28.6 PPG and 9.3 RPG (including a career-high 19 in Game 3) and PG Westbrook looks un-guardable, averaging 21.8-6.5-5.3 while shooting 55.2 percent. The No. 2 seed in the West is Dallas but after winning Game 1, 100-94 (Nowitzki had 36 points on 12-of-14 FGs and 12-of-12 FTs), the Mavs have looked 'lost.'
The Spurs easily won Game 2 in Dallas 102-88, before winning 94-90 (minus-3 1/2) and 92-89 (minus-2 1/2) in Games 3 and 4 in San Antonio. The Spurs won Game 3 without making a three-point basket (0-of-7), becoming just the fourth team since 2000 to win a playoff game without making a three-pointer. Then in Game 4 last night, while the rest of his teammates were shooting 1-of-12 from behind the three-point line, George Hill made 5-of-6 three-pointers (11-of-16 shots, overall), to become the first Spur to lead the team in scoring in a playoff game outside of the "Big Three" since the first round of 2007 (a span of 41 games!).
The Mavs head back to Dallas down 3-1 and the franchise has never overcome such a deficit in its history (just eight teams all-time, have!). The Nuggets also return to Denver down 3-1 to the Jazz. Denver won its Game 1 impressively (126-113) but like Dallas, has managed to lose three in a row. However, unlike the Mavs, who were close in both losses in San Antonio, the Nuggets were totally outplayed by the Jazz in Salt Lake City, losing 105-93 and 117-106. Deron Willima has been the series' star, averaging 26.8 PPG and 12.0 APG.
The Suns are the West's third seed and return home tonight for Game 5 of their series with the Blazers, tied at two-all. Roy made a surprise return to the court in Game 4 for the Blazers, just eight days removed from arthroscopic knee surgery, helping Portland even the series with a 96-87 win on Saturday (Suns had won Games 2 and 3 by scores of 119-90 and 108-89). Can anyone identify the West's best team right now? This next week will be very interesting.
There are three games on tonight's card, two Game 4s in the East and the Por/Pho Game 5 in the West. Orlando/Charlotte is up first on TNT at 8:05 ET. The Magic are favored by four points with a total of 184. Atlanta/Milwaukee tips at 8:35 ET, with the Hawks favored by two points (total is 189 1/2). The second half of the TNT doubleheader is Portland/Phoenix at 10:35 ET, with the Suns favored by 6 1/2 points (total is 212 1/2).
Good luck...Larry