The entire NBA 'world' (but of course NOT, David Stern and the NBA brass) was rooting for and expecting a Finals showdown last June between the Cavs and Lakers (LeBron vs Kobe). After all, for the first time in NBA history, two teams had won 65 games or more in the same season in 2008-09, the Cavs winning 66 games and the Lakers winning 65. As every NBA fans knows, Kobe and the Lakers kept their share of 'the bargain' by advancing to The Finals, but LeBron and the Cavs did not. After rolling through their first two series with an 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS mark (outscoring their opponents on average, 94.9-to-78.1 PPG), the Cavs were totally outplayed by the Magic in the Eastern Conference finals, losing in six games (Cavs were 1-5 ATS in the series).
The 2010 NBA postseason began this past weekend and once again, the Cavs (owners of the NBA's best record at 61-21) and the Lakers (West's No. 1 seed with a 57-25 record) are expected to meet in The Finals. The Cavs were the first tem to take the floor on Saturday, hosting the Bulls. They led after one quarter 32-18 and although the Bulls trimmed a 22-point deficit to seven in the fourth quarter, the Cavs eventually wore them down in winning by 13 points (laying 11 1/2). LeBron entered the game averaging 31.6 PPG all-time in first round games but had a 'quiet' game for him, totaling 24 points, six rebounds and five assists. The really good news for the Cavs is that Shaq looked "10 years younger," with 12 points, five rebounds, four assists and three blocks in 24 minutes, playing for the first time since tearing a thumb ligament on February 25. Jamison had 15 points and 10 rebounds while Mo Williams added 19 points plus 10 assists. This is the kind of balance the Cavs will need to beat the Magic and possibly the Lakers.
That game jump-started a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record for home teams on Saturday and it also started a trend of close pointspread decisions that continued into Sunday. The Lakers were the first game on Sunday and like the Cavs, jumped out to an early lead (27-13 at the end of the first quarter) but wound up winning by just eight (laying 7 1/2). Also like the Cavs, LA was buoyed by the return of its starting center. Bynum returned from a 13-game absence because of a strained right Achilles' tendon to score 13 points, grab 12 rebounds and make four blocks. The league's top-two teams weren't alone in games that fell "right around the number."
The Hawks were an 8 1/2-point favorite on Saturday and won by 10, while the Magic (9 1/2-point favorites) won by nine on Sunday over Charlotte. The Celtics were 4 1/2-point choices over the Heat on Saturday and won by nine but that's hardly the whole story. Boston trailed by 14 points mid-way through the third quarter but used a 21-10 fourth quarter advantage to get the win and cover. On Sunday, the Spurs rode Dirk Nowitzki's 36 points to a 100-94 win over the hated-Spurs, covering as four-point favorites. Just two of the eight games saw clear-cut ATS winners. The Nuggets (minus-6) beat the short-handed Jazz 126-113 on Saturday night and then the Blazers (plus-8) upset the Suns in Phoenix on Sunday night, 105-100.
When the dust had settled for the weekend, home teams finished 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Blazers (without Roy) were the lone road team to win SU and according to ESPN (don't we HAVE to trust "the leader in sports programming," just like we trust FOX News to be "fair and balanced?"), Portland ended a streak of having lost its previous five opening playoff games. More incredibly, the Blazers had lost their last 18 playoff openers on the road. Wow! For those playing totals, there were two 'overs' and two 'unders' on Saturday, before Sunday caused bookmakers and bettors to 'sweat' three of the four games to the final seconds.
With the Lakers holding Kevin Durant to 7-of-24 shooting on Sunday, the OKC/LAL game stayed comfortably under the total. However, the Cha/Orl total was 187 and the final score was 98-89. The SA/Dal total was 194 and the final was 100-94. As for the Por/Pho game, the total opened 205 and closed 204 1/2, with the final being 105-100. You can't make this stuff up. I'm calling two of the games a 'push' and the Por/Pho game a win (was less than 205 almost all of Sunday).
The playoff schedule resumes tonight with two games, Chicago at Cleveland (Cavs minus-10 1/2 and a total of 191 1/2) and Utah at Denver (Nuggets minus-7 and a total of 212 1/2). Tomorrow's journal will focus on the "Zig-Zag theory," in which a bettor simply plays on the team off the SU loss. Tonight's plays would be the Bulls and Jazz but as I'll detail tomorrow, it hasn't proved very profitable to 'blindly' play this theory for quite awhile now.
Good luck...Larry