The 2009 Heisman race was never expected to include more than three players, 2008 winner Sam Bradford, 2008 runner-up Colt McCoy and 2007 winner Tim Tebow (Tebow also received more first-place votes in 2008 than either Bradford or McCoy). Bradford basically dropped out on the season's first Saturday with an injury while McCoy has not quite matched his spectacular 2008 season with Tebow falling way short of the numbers he posted in winning the Heisman in 2007.
As the 2009 season enters its final regular season weekend, I have broken down the 2009 Heisman 'race' into three categories. There are "the preseason favorites," Colt McCoy (Texas) and Tim Tebow (Florida), then the preseason's long-shots, Case Keenum ((Houston) and Kellen Moore (Boise St) plus the "preseason unknowns," Toby Gerhart (Stanford) and Mark Ingram (Alabama). As I mentioned last week, I hope the actual voters hold their ballots until after December 5.
I will post my final Heisman Watch on Tuesday, December 8 with "my choice" and my predicted winner. It may not be "one in the same." My latest Heisman Watch is a little different than past editions this season, as I will wait until next week for a final full report.
Preseason Unknowns: How much of a long shot were both Ingram and Gerhart at the beginning of the year? Well consider that in Phil Steele?s CFB annual (page 328), he listed nine Heisman favorites, 11 more ?contenders,? 28 ?possibilities? and 19 ?darkhorses.? None of those 66 players were named Mark Ingram or Toby Gerhart. While Ingram likely played himself out of a trip to New York next weekend, Gerhart has run for an average of 185.5 YPG over his last four games, facing Oregon (No. 7 in the BCS), USC (18), Cal (19) and Notre Dame.
The Tide stayed perfect with a very imperfect 26-21 victory last Friday over Auburn. Auburn outgained Alabama 332-291 and dominated on the ground 151 yards to 73. However, Alabama took the lead with a final TD drive capped by QB McElroy's four-yard TD pass with 1:24 left. Ingram, who gained a pathetic 30 yards rushing (on 16 carries), remained on the bench for the Crimson Tide's final drive with what head coach Nick Saban said he believed was a bruised hip. It was his worst game of the season by far. Ingram's 30-yard effort moved his season total to 1,429 yards (6.5 YPC / 12 TDs), which leaves him just short of Bobby Humphrey's 1,471 yards in 1986, the single-season rushing record at Alabama. Ingram has a "chance at redemption" this Saturday in the Georgia Dome, when the 2nd-ranked Tide take on the No. 1 Gators in the SEC championship game.
To say Ingram entered the season "under the radar" is one thing. Gerhart of Stanford was "nowhere to be found" in August. However, the senior RB has arguably been 2009's best performer. As I wrote in last week's Heisman Watch, Gerhart carried defenders on a 29-yard reception that set up Stanford at the Cal 13 with less than two minutes left while trailing 34-28. It could have been a "Heisman moment" but QB Andrew Luck threw an incompletion on first down and was then intercepted with 1:36 to go. Gerhart had a second "Heisman moment" last Saturday night vs Notre Dame. Down 38-30 in the 4th quarter vs the Irish, Gerhart threw an 18-yard TD pass on a fourth-and-four play to help the Cardinal tie the game (after a two-point conversion). It was his first-ever pass attempt in four years!. After Stanford stopped Notre Dame on a third-and-two from the Irish 35 with less than six minutes left, Gerhart carried seven times for 54 yards on the game-winning drive, bowling over would-be tacklers before scoring his 26th rushing TD of the season on a four-yard run with 59 seconds left (ND let him score). He finished with 205 yards (second 200-yard game this year and third of his career) and has topped 100 yards in 10 of 12 games in 2009 (had 82 and 96 yards in his two other games), giving him 19 career 100-yard games in his career. He leads the nation with 1,736 yards (5.6 YPC) but is No. 2 in YPG with 144.7. His 26 TDs are the most in the nation and he's No. 1 in scoring at 13.3 PPG. Gerhart's season is over while all five of the remaining players on this list play on Saturday. Could Gerhart become Stanford's second Heisman winner? He surely deserves considerable consideration.
Preseason Long-shots: Houston was kept out of the C-USA championship game last season by cross-town rival Rice but with a trip to the league title game on the line this past Saturday vs the Owls, the Cougars put away Rice early and in record-breaking fashion. Case Keenum led Houston to a school-record-tying 59 first-half points and the Cougars went on to score more points than any major college team this season in a 73-14 rout. Keenum never played in the second half but completed 25-of-31 passes for 323 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (plus one rush TD). He's completing 70.5 percent of his throws in 2009 for 4,922 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs. He's thrown for at least 323 yards in all but one game in 2009, when he was held to 233 yards by SMU in a 38-15 win. Keenum saw his run of 18 consecutive 300-yard passing games in the regular season end vs SMU back on October 24 but he?s topped 300 yards in 24 of his last 26 games and has 11, 400-yard games in his career, tying him with David Klingler for the most in Houston history. His two-TD pass game vs Rice extended his school record to 28 straight games with a TD pass (1989 Heisman-winner Andre Ware owned the previous record with 18) and he now has 96 career TD passes at Houston, which breaks Klingler's school record. He also has 116 TDs accounted for (rushing, passing and receiving), extending the school record he already held at Houston. Houston leads the nation in total offense (583.3 YPG) and in scoring (44.9 PPG) with Keenum leading the nation in total offense (420.2 YPG), which is 96.3 YPG ahead of the player ranked second (Levi Brown of Troy, if you can believe that?). Houston will play at East Carolina on Saturday in the C-USA championship game.
Boise State ended Nevada's eight-game winning streak last Friday night with a 44-33 win. The Broncos moved to 12-0 in 2009 and sophomore QB Moore is now 24-1 in his 25 career starts. Boise State's win was its 15th straight WAC win. It marked the school's 25th straight home win and 55th straight regular-season home win. Moore completed 17-of-33 passes for 262 yards and five TDs (zero INTs). Moore has 38 TD passes this season (just three INTs), the most in school history. Boise St is the winningest team of the decade at 110-17 (.866) and with a win over New Mexico State this Saturday (Boise is an early 46-point favorite!), the Broncos have a great chance at getting an at-large BCS Bowl bid, assuming Texas (a two-TD favorite) doesn't lose to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. Moore leads the nation with a QB rating of 168.7 and while I seriously doubt he'll even get invited to New York, he deserves mention.
Preseason Favorites: Texas and Texas A&M combined for 88 points in the 116th meeting between the schools on Thanksgiving night, the most in series history. McCoy completed 18-of-26 for 222 yards with three TD passes in the first half and his career-best 65-yard run up the middle early in the second quarter was the third-longest rush by a Texas QB, all-time. McCoy had 111 yards rushing by that point, already a career high. He finished 24-of-40 passes for 304 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. McCoy ran for a career-high 175 yards (his third career 100-yard game) in the Longhorns' 49-39 win, which extended his NCAA record to 44 all-time wins as a starting QB (44-7). McCoy completed an NCAA single-season record 76.7 percent of his passes last year and this year is not far behind that mark, completing 71.8 percent. His four TD passes against the Aggies extended his school record to 28 straight games with at least one TD pass (has at least one TD pass in 37 of his last 38 games) giving him 108 TD passes in his career, the most of any active QB. He continues to extend his career record of TDs responsible for (passing, rushing, receiving) at Texas, as his total is now up 128 (in comparison, Young had 81 and former Heisman-winner Ricky Williams had 76). He now has 14 career 300-yard passing games, which includes two 400-yard passing performances, vs UCF three weeks ago and a 414-yard effort in last year's Fiesta Bowl win over Ohio State. Texas takes a 16-game winning streak into Saturday's Big 12 championship game vs Nebraska and a win will pit the Longhorns vs the winner of the SEC championship game in this year's BCS title game.
Tim Tebow threw for three TDs and ran for two more, helping Florida win its sixth straight game over Florida State, 37-10. In his three games against Florida State as a starter, Tebow has accounted for 14 total TDs (nine passing, five rushing). It was Senior Day for Tebow and the team's other seniors, as this class of Gators improved to 12-1 against their four traditional rivals, Tennessee (4-0), Georgia (3-1), Florida State (4-0) and Miami (1-0). Florida also extended the nation's longest winning streak to 22 games, outscoring opponents 907-to-246 in its current winning streak. Tebow has thrown 42 TDs with just six INTs during that stretch while adding 23 rushing TDs. He has thrown a TD pass in 38 of his last 40 games and as I say each week, his legend continues to grow. Florida has been No. 1 in all seven of the BCS standings which have been released and No. 1 in the AP in all but one week in 2009. Tebow broke the SEC's all-time record for rushing TDs against FIU and now has 56 after his two vs FSU. He became the SEC's all-time leader in rushing yards by a QB vs Georgia back on October 31 and with five more TDs accounted for (rushing and passing combined) vs FSU, extended his total TDs to 140 (also an SEC record). Last year No.2 Florida beat No.1 Alabama 31-20 in the SEC championship game, as Tebow led the Gators to two fourth-quarter TDs. It should be noted that the comeback victory over Alabama was the first time in his career that Tebow had led his team to a win after the Gators had trailed in the second half (Gators had been 0-5 prior to that).The Gators have trailed just once this season in the second half, October 17 at home vs Arkansas. In that game, Tebow directed a 69-yard drive beautifully in the final minutes, setting up Caleb Sturgis' 27-yard FG with nine seconds remaining. He threw for 30 yards and ran for 22 on the drive with three plays standing out, his 12-yard pass to Riley Cooper on third down (Cooper fell down, then caught the ball on one knee) plus consecutive runs that gained 16 yards and put Sturgis well within his comfort zone for the game-winning FG. If Tebow has an outstanding game and leads the Gators past the Tide on Saturday, he'll be the favorite of an awful lot of Heisman voters.
Good luck...Larry