NBA Playoffs Betting Tip: Importance of Game #1

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NBA Playoffs Betting Tip: Importance of Game #1

With the first round of the NBA playoffs upon us, it is important to take a look at how important game #1 actually is. When comparing the NBA, MLB and NHL; the NBA seems to have the most direct correlation on how a team does in the first game of a seven game series in comparision to other sports afte winning game #1. Interesting to note that a visiting team that steals a game #1 on the road is only 2-12 in game #2.

round    site    Game 2 rec.    series rec.
Prelim    all    36-20 (.643)    44-12 (.786)
Prelim    H    34-6 (.850)    37-3 (.925)
Prelim    V    2-14 (.125)    7-9 (.438)

In baseball, once the series is at seven games, a visiting team who takes game #1 actually is 45.5% to win the second game, while in the NHL, they are close to 40%.

Rest of the NBA playoffs by round and overall:

round    site    Game 2 rec.    series rec.
all    all    223-170 (.567)    310-83 (.789)
all    H    198-91 (.685)    251-38 (.869)
all    V    25-79 (.240)    59-45 (.567)
Finals    all    31-32 (.492)    46-17 (.730)
Finals    H    28-19 (.596)    38-9 (.809)
Finals    V    3-13 (.188)    8-8 (.500)
Semis    all    60-46 (.566)    85-21 (.802)
Semis    H    49-24 (.671)    62-11 (.849)
Semis    V    11-22 (.333)    23-10 (.697)
Qtrs    all    96-72 (.571)    135-33 (.804)
Qtrs    H    87-42 (.674)    114-15 (.884)
Qtrs    V    9-30 (.231)    21-18 (.538)

As each series advances we can look at some possible angles based on historical facts on the NBA playoffs. For example, a few years back when the Celtics were up 2-0 on the Lakers I found Teams up 2-0 in the NBA, after winning the first 2 at home, are 170-10 94.4 % all time in 7 game series. Bookmaker had a series bet with the Celtics at -140. Even though I will never be teaching math at MIT, if you were told you have a 94.4% chance to win with a historicaly record of 170-10, how do you not lay -140?

So good luck on your first round wagers and we will report back once the first games are completed.
Regards,

Johnny Detroit, Co-Founder and Vice-President
Bettors get ready at Pregame.com

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  • Another set of game #1 kicking off....

  • It's jumping off Saturday!!!!!

  • bump for upcoming NBA Playoffs.

  • Just listened. Great stuff Gill.

  • interesting tidbit is if the home team in the 1st round takes game #1, they are 37-3 (.925) to win the series. regardless if 1st round or finals, 310-83 (.789).

  • Part of the zigg-zat concept. Here's a podcast with Gill Alexender discussing it with Yahoo's Marc Spears: http://bit.ly/bAfjkH