To follow up on an earlier blog post about understanding value when betting, we will look at NBA totals from yesterday and review the opening vs closing numbers and see if it mattered (if at all) what number you played at. Trying to understand many aspects of how this works and what it means can be confusing, so feel free to ask any questions you like. I spend tons of time reviewing past results and movements, so if there is anything you feel we should look at let me know and there should be no problem incorporating it into the daily updates.There are a few assumptions we need to make on the information below. The first being that in general, NBA total moves are based on sharper money and not the public. Obviously, I am not saying the public can't dictate movement, but considering the majority of the moves happen earlier in the day (long before Joe Public is betting), it can be assumed that the default choice for moves will be sharper bettors. Also, I am quite aware lineup changes or injuries an also dictate movements, but with enough volume of games to review, those isolated incidents that are because of Lebron getting sick before a game will not effect the end data.Even before we get to far into this study, I would be willing to bet we will have a few games per week that land in the middle of an opener and closer. What this means is that the person who is able to beat the closing number will cash a winner and the person betting off the worst number will be posting on a forum about a backdoor cover that cost him a big bet.
Game: Industry standard rotation numbers
Open: The first line released for the total
Close: The final number listed for the total before being closed for wagers
Result: Final score and over/under result
Move Result: Did the move beat the final score?
Open vs. Close: Did beating the closing number make you money? Meaning a game opens at 199.0 and closes at 202.0 and lands on 200.0. Getting the OVER before the closer of 202.0 makes you money, while betting a bad # (201.0/202.0) on the OVER cost you money.
Game: #751/752Teams: Sacramento/IndianaOpen: 204.5 Close: 207.5 (+3.0)Result: 197.0/Under BothMove Result: LOpen vs. Close: NAGame: #753/754
Teams: Oklahoma City/Philadelphia
Open: 195.0Close: 195.5 (+0.5)Result: 204.0/Over BothMove Result: NAOpen vs. Close: NAGame: #755/756
Teams: LA Clippers/Milwaukee
Close: 192.0 (+1.5)
Result: 196.0/Over BothMove Result: W
Open vs. Close: NA
Close: 213.5 (-4.0)
Result: 216.0/Under Open/Over CloseMove Result: W
Open vs. Close: This game landed right in the middle. Perfect example of why missing the right # is key. If you were able to beat the closing #, you picked up a nice winner. Also, nice to add that for you middlers you had a great score on this game with the 4 point move hitting both the UNDER 217.5 and OVER the 213.5.Game: #759/760
Result: 192.0/Under Both
Move Result: NA
Open vs. Close: NAReviewing the games above, you can see what I meant by beating the closing number in my "NBA Betting Theory" blog post.The two bigger moves of the day, the 3 and 4 pointers, basically split on the day, but getting down on the Phoenix/Chicago UNDER had EVERYTHING to do with the best number. The general rule is you want to try and beat the NBA closer by at least two points if that is your angle. Chasing steam AFTER the move usually equates to a losing season eventually. I can't stress enough the important of having multiple outs and always trying to get the best line. I will try and make this a daily update and if I can even have a few of the people who use this site start shopping for the best number I feel like I did the betting world a good deed. If you do bet the NBA offshore, a huge perk of doing so is the generous
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Also, my head and eyes get dizzy looking at all the grids for pulling this data, so if anything is incorrect or off, please do not hesitate to let me know.