Ready to middle some basketball?

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Ready to middle some basketball?

http://ballsiest.com/sportsblog/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/nba1.jpg

If you have enough outs (local and offshore) AND can get on the moves before they happen there is a lot of money that can be made. You always hear people talk about middling, but most of the time they really do not know what the hell they are talking about. When it comes right down to it, sports gambling is math. Almost everything has some type of value. There is a reason all books charge the same for buying 1/2 points. Everything has some type of percentage behind it and like the casino when buying insurance in BJ, the books/casino will ALWAYS make you pay more than the real assigned value.

If you can find a solid local who is old school, always keep them as an out. The advantages with them not moving lines is well worth it. Say a game is hit from 7 to 5 and your local still has the 7, you can middle it all day. One thing a lot of middlers do is lean with the move to cover the juice. So you would bet 1000 at +7 and 900 at -5. So if the middle does not hit and assuming the move is sharp, it will help offset some of the juice on the losers. This assumes the move is based off sharp action and there is no exact science behind it, but some people I respect follow this plan.

(the information below is data collected over the years from fellow middles and middlers who shared data on forums in the past)

Need at least a point and half in both college and NBA at -110.

This shows the number and % of time games fall within X # of points with the side/total and the cumulative percentage.

For example in the NBA 3.84% the result was one point off from the spread either way and 9.73% of the time it fell within one or less.

NBA Sides
0 60 2.28% 2.28%
0.5 95 3.61% 5.89%
1 101 3.84% 9.73%
1.5 95 3.61% 13.35%
2 110 4.18% 17.53%
2.5 86 3.27% 20.80%
3 95 3.61% 24.41%
3.5 85 3.23% 27.64%
4 95 3.61% 31.25%

NBA Totals
0 25 0.95% 0.95%
0.5 63 2.40% 3.35%
1 72 2.74% 6.08%
1.5 46 1.75% 7.83%
2 57 2.17% 10.00%
2.5 51 1.94% 11.94%
3 56 2.13% 14.07%
3.5 72 2.74% 16.81%
4 73 2.78% 19.58%

CBB Sides
0 117 2.04% 2.04%
0.5 210 3.67% 5.71%
1 223 3.89% 9.60%
1.5 206 3.60% 13.20%
2 231 4.03% 17.23%
2.5 215 3.75% 20.99%
3 224 3.91% 24.90%
3.5 226 3.95% 28.85%
4 210 3.67% 32.51%

CBB Totals
0 71 1.24% 1.24%
0.5 115 2.01% 3.25%
1 150 2.62% 5.87%
1.5 107 1.87% 7.74%
2 143 2.50% 10.23%
2.5 113 1.97% 12.21%
3 144 2.51% 14.72%
3.5 113 1.97% 16.69%
4 156 2.72% 19.42%

The data shows you will win 51.9% of the time if you get a half point from the pointspread. This equates to 8 cents on the moneyline. Use the 8 cents for a half point to determine the cut off for making money.

If you have a 1.5 point middle then you are gaining a value of 24 cents and it is a +ev play at -110 both sides (20 cent difference). You need a 1.5 point middle at -110 to cross the threshold for a +ev play. There are lines that aren't -110 so I think it is easiers to use the 8 cent moneyline value to determine a +ev play. For example, a 2 point middle at -120 one side and -110 other side has a 30 cent difference, but the value is worth about 32 cents (8 x 4) so this just barely crosses the value for a +ev play.

Remember, this is based off of -110, so you can gamble even more if you have -105 accounts available. I used to have a ton, but -105 shops are not big fans of people beating them by a few points per game.

If you had to ask me the easiest way to get middles if you only want to do it part-part-part time is be on top of key injuries. There is always going to be someone that breaks the news first on a guy like Tony Romo not playing. For example, I had an alert on Romo missing the four weeks and went in to grabs tons of +12 on the flip side. Before hitting submit, I called on my speakphone a friend in Vegas that is part of a middling team that terrorizes the books in town to let him know. The few minutes it took to call him before I hit submit cost me the bet (ugh). So think of the total effort it took to do this:

1) Breaking news on Tony Romo being out (obvious key player)
2) Check the line to see it has not moved and see it sitting at the +12 still
3) Bet AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE on the +12
4) Game is pulled once it becames news across the board
5) Game is now put back up at Dallas -7 (some places at 6.5)
6) Take the Cowboys -6.5

So you now have a HUGE MIDDLE that goes thru 7 and 10. Think of it as a free one team teaser! If you tried to buy that many points, it would cost you between -220 and -240. So think of that in this way, how rich would you be if you were able to bet -240 favorites at -110? Are all middles this extreme or easy, of course not, but this is an actual example that was readily available in the last day or so. Man, I can't wait for basketball season!

  • Heavy stuff thanks!  You just have to be on top of it 24/7 and thats not easy.

  • Might be worth a gamble on Cowboys -7 with the news Romo might play. Bookmaker already took it down. Possible buyback if the line moves enough. Sometimes on middles you need to take "flyers".

  • Good call RJ!

  • Remember, lots of outs available at http://PregameAction.com - including bonuses found nowhere else.

  • I don't have a ton of outs to use like this. I like using 2nd half lines on totals that I played. I know you know this JD, but for our friends learning about betting, here's an example.Say I have under 55 on a game and at half theres 14 points scored.I'll play the 2nd half total over, say it's 28. So if there is between 28 and 41 points scored in the 2nd half, I hit both. I'll play both for the same amount. To break even, you only need to hit 5% of them. There's not always lots of games that fall into the scenario, but I like to do it when there is a middle of at least 3.5+ points in football.  

  • I am no expert on all the math and follow basic rules learned over the years, but will try my best to answer any questions.