First off, everyone loves to be a square at one time or another. Personally, I have been booted from close to 10 offshore sportsbooks. At BetUS, they deal me different lines and will only allow me to RISK $500.00 per bet. Bodog will also deal me a sharp line and not allow me to bet the line the majority of their audience is allowed to use. My friend over at Bet Jamaica will allow me to play there, but not credit me any bonuses on a deposit. It is nearly impossible for me to get a local to let me play once I bet a total and it moves 3 points by the time the game kicks. Despite all this, I bet a parlay on the lottery a few weeks back. While in Vegas I love "Wheel of Fortune" slot machines and will toss a $20.00 on the "Big Wheel" despite a house edge of 11-24% (11% for the 1-1 and 25% for the logo/40-1 bets). When bored at home I will always toss in some prop bets on Monday Night Football. Honestly, I have even played blackjack using an online casino (junkie alert). There is nothing wrong with having some fun with gambling, but you should learn there is a difference in fun and wrongly thinking you are making a sharp play.Bad weather means under: This is one of my favorite ones. A guy betting $100.00 on a football game is the only person on the planet who is aware of wind and rain that is going to hit the area around game time. I mean, why would the people making the lines or the sportsbooks adjusting them (lines) based off six figures of action not know this? The thing is, everything from public perception to weather conditions is already factored into any line or total. If a fluke storm suddenly is coming, the total will move based of the new valuations based on the new information. Just a quick FYI, your house is not the only place that has the Weather Channel.Defense wins championships: ESPN did a great study a while back looking at the "Big Dance". The findings showed that a potent offense and possession was more of a factor than a "solid defense". In football, who cares if you have a great defense if you can't score? Remember Vanderbilt a few years back? Great defense but could not ever score. Give me a potent offense with great ball control over a great defense any day. A solid offense can dominate the time of possession, which is one of the main things people tend to not factor in when handicapping sports. If you look at the NFL last season, the team with the better quarterback tended to have a common correlation with covering the spread. There are numerous obvious reasons why this would be the case, but a good QB has the ability to lead the OFFENSE and control the clock AND put up points. If you take the time to break it down, there are many times the GREAT defensive stats are not due to a GREAT defense but rather that the GREAT offense held the ball most of the game and the defenders were able to spend most of the game on the sideline acting like fools everytime the camera is on them.Bet on Monday Night Football home underdogs: If you bet on the home underdog last season on MNF you would have won an amazing 33% of your wagers. See, one of the BIGGEST mistakes people make is thinking no one knows something but them. If there is an edge or flaw in the lines, due to the money involved, this will eventually be corrected. From the 1970's to around 2000, following this the dog on Monday was hitting close to 60%. Over the past eight years? A coin flip at best. Actually, over the past few seasons, is actually BELOW 50%. Out of all the edges I have seen over the years, this probably could be the longest one to adjust (probably due to the lack of the internet in mass for people and sites to point out flaws in lines). For example, there were some great 2nd half NBA trends involving the Kings a couple years ago, but about a month and a half in, the lines were adjusted and even the juice was inflated to offset the edge. It seemed every single forum on the planet was talking about it and the books saw a huge influx of 2nd half wagers all of a sudden. They put the clamp down on this right away.I am sure all of us have been at a bar or with friends when someone starts spouting some gambling theory that you know is 100% nonsense. Would love to hear some of your favorite gambling tall tales.
He probably bet the "dome dog": back in the day when the Lions were AMAZING home in the Barry era. Obviously now, well....
I remember a buddy who use to always say go with the Home Dome Dog. This was back when Seattle played in the Kingdome. I think it worked well for a while. The Detroits and St. Louis squads amongst have ruined that one :)
Well the Grand Daddy of them all, it's on TV....
Betting with your heart and not your head.
Johnny agreed with weather yet if you have watched enough football once in a blue moon the rain will be so strong combined with wind the under is good. Remember the miami , pitt (hurricane)game a couple years ago. Once or twice a year in football there will be a combination of wind and rain so hard combined with a soaked natural grass field offense is impossible. Also certain stadiums in baseball with wind ie: the cubs and a strong wind in or out. Certain baseball stadiums in dead of summer ball pops. Just my opinion
Wish it were football season so I could go to town! But off the top of my head:
Key players, such as a QB or RB in football. People get all riled up over an injury and will drop big money if a key guy goes out with an injury. In these cases, it's probably best to stay away from the game OR bet the side with the injury! In a lot of cases, it's not going to make that big of a difference, and after the line is adjusted, you are getting a lot of value in the side with the player that is out or injured.
On the flip side: Squares don't look into stuff like a key offensive lineman being out, especially if it's a guy blocking the QBs blind side. That will make more of a difference than the example given above. --- Also, the weather thing is a HUGE one. "Oh, it's snowing or raining out! I'm loading up on the Under!" Ok, but you will lose big time money.
Tons of new sharp guys on the forum, so any new tips would be nice to see discussed.
I used to feel that way when Dick Vitale announces. I never win. Remember I put everything I was down on Kansas when they played Oklahoma State. I was at work and this we pre-phones that went on the web, etc. So I call a friend to get an update and he was telling me how this big white guy called "Big Country" was dominating and Vitale would not shut up about him. That game started my 0-forever on Vitale games.
"This team has killed that team for the last 10 years" Who cares what that team did against this team 10 years ago...? None of today's players or coaches were on either team 10 years ago.
How about "MUST WIN" Games......College & Pro.
Thanks for sharing altham :)
I am glad you agree Johnny. You bring up some very good points. Great Blog.
Basing too much emphasis on common opponents, for example, Chiefs beat the Broncos, Panthers killed the Chiefs, Broncos beat the Bucs, therefore the Bucs should have no chance vs Panthers.
Because, think of it. The books hold say 5% of every bet. So you fade those bets, but you are paying 10% extra on losers, while the books is only paying even money on the losses.
AMEN altham. The public is not that bad. The house holds 5-7% of every wager WITH the -110 juice. Where the public gets into trouble is with chasing and doubling up when down. You can't fade the public and win.