College Football PIcks: What is your LOCK for Week #1?

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College Football PIcks: What is your LOCK for Week #1?

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The clock is ticking and we are just over a week away from the opening week of college football. I already have that uneasy knot in my stomach of joy knowing that within a couple days I can start making college football picks. Some of the bigger games to watch are:

NC State
South Carolina -12

Oregon State -3
Stanford

Utah
Michigan -4

Syracuse
Northwestern -12

Oklahoma State -6.5
Washington State

Hawaii
Florida -34.5

Illinois
Missouri -9

Michigan State
California -5

Alabama
Clemson -5

Kentucky
Louisville -4

Tennessee -7
UCLA

The one game that makes me nervous is the Michigan-Utah game. Everything I am hearing out of the Michigan camp is pretty positive. Word is many of the young kids are shining and the speed factor is something the Wolverines have not had pushed in practice probably in a long time if EVER. The practices would make even Bo cringe as Coach Rich is running these kids hard. He is not a big believer in running practices without pads. The strength side of the equation is also something people will shocked to see. If you do not know, Michighan brought in a top notch "strength coach" and totally changed up the gym equipment for the first time in over 30 years. Does it matter? Well, considering there are NFL players training with this guy and using the Michigan facility, I would say yes. This line opened at -7 and was bet down by the professional gamblers to 4. Does this mean they like Utah to win? Of course not, it just means they like the 7 points. Now we have a mystery Michigan team with 3 points of value off the opening number. This is a tough one, but as I hear more out of camp it will be easier for me to decide on whether to take the home team or pass all together. Considering you can't get the 7 now, not sure how anyone can take Utah since they missed the chance to play the 7. So the play as of now is Michigan or pass. No matter how much someone likes Utah, you can't win long term playing numbers 3+ points off the opener.

When I look at the rest of the board, my initial thoughts (with no serious handicappoing or offshore tips) lean toward Michigan State, Alabama and Florida. Michigan State because I think they are going to be very much improved and that number on paper makes you want to take the home team laying less than a full TD. I picture a game decided by 3 or 4. On the Alabama side, it is hard to go against any SEC team getting points. Until the other conferences can start beating the SEC, give me the points. Finally, as of now, I like Florida to kill Hawaii. Florida is already trying to play catch-up to Georgia since they are sitting at the #5 spot. Toss in the fact the winner of Ohio State/USC depending on the type of win (close or blowout) is going to get some extra credit, DESTROYING Hawaii might be a must for the Tebow led Florida offense.

Curious on what games the forum has circled for week #1? Who are your "locks" the opening weekend of college football?

  • WELL I KNEW I LIKED COLORADO FOR A REASON!

  • my lockof the week is ; under troy and mid tennesee

  • Memphis ML

  • adding tenn....

    word from a source at UCLA is their line is HORRIBLE and they might get destroyed by the VOLs.

    also, on the Florida game, the Rainbows QB is questionable.

  • Bama Ml

  • Miss St -7 1/2: While they have started out slow in Aug, managable # against Lous Tech

  • Meeeeechigan spanks Utah....come on JD.....you see this coming!!!!!!

  • I finally grabbed Hawaii at +36.5.  Harvin should play but will sit late in the game if UF has a nice lead, same goes for Brandon Spikes.  If the Gators have a 5 td lead in the 4th quarter, does Meyer leave his starters in and risk injury or give his backups some garbage time PT?  That may be what it comes down to.

    Also, Gators have a weak pass rush and a young secondary (3 sophs and a junior) with even younger players backing them up.  Hawaii may have a new QB and a new coach, but they are still using the same offensive game plan this year.

  • TR,

          I liked your Pick of UAB+14 so much, I've got them on my Card this Weekend!

  • I can't believe my UAB +14 got no response from Chuck. He must be slipping in his old age. lol

    By the way Steve, great reasoning on Florida. Plus, the QB that won the starting job for Hawaii is now questionable. Hawaii has to make a awful trip for a noon start. Gators roll on Saturday.

  • I can't believe my UAB +14 got no response from Chuck. He must be slipping in his old age. lol

    By the way Steve, great reasoning on Florida. Plus, the QB that won the starting job for Hawaii is now questionable. Hawaii has to make a awful trip for a noon start. Gators roll on Saturday.

  • This Hawaii line up to 36 is looking more and more attractive to me - but, staying w/low unit (1/2) ONLY for FLA Defense Factor - they cut their teeth as the youngest Defense anywhere - and improved after getting smacked around by UGa...

    FLA D-B's are STILL very young and raw - THREE FRESHMAN STARTERS last season, TWO TRUE FRESHMAN - often got abused even in wins - and got torched by Michigan for 41, UGa for 42, Ky in winning 45-37, and even gave up 31 pts at HOME TO TROY, and 31 to S Car.

    BUT can HI get anything done vs this fast, athletic dominant D-line and LB's of FLA?  

    The real question is:  IS FLA that much better than last year - AND is HI that far below TROY?

    FLA did top this 36 number ...against Tenn,, 59-20

    and beat Fla Atl - a pretty fair comparison to HI, talent wise, by the same 59-20 score.

    LAST year's HI team probably covers this spread - this years squad, a shell of last year's team with new coach and 14 starters and a porous D might not - but I think they will put up at least 3 TD's with young FLA DB's and I AM on the over, 1.5 units and HI to cover, just Half Unit.  

  • IMO the TOTALS are ALL Inflated.

  • Damn, the totals just came out.  Folks get the UK/UL Under 58.5 while you can.  IMO, this won't get close.  UK will establish the run as will the Cards behind their big OLine.  I'd be surprised if this gets to 40.

  • miami ohio-4over vandy.lock