College Football PIcks: What is your LOCK for Week #1?

The clock is ticking and we are just over a week away from the opening week of college football. I already have that uneasy knot in my stomach of joy knowing that within a couple days I can start making college football picks. Some of the bigger games to watch are:

NC State
South Carolina -12

Oregon State -3
Stanford

Utah
Michigan -4

Syracuse
Northwestern -12

Oklahoma State -6.5
Washington State

Hawaii
Florida -34.5

Illinois
Missouri -9

Michigan State
California -5

Alabama
Clemson -5

Kentucky
Louisville -4

Tennessee -7
UCLA

The one game that makes me nervous is the Michigan-Utah game. Everything I am hearing out of the Michigan camp is pretty positive. Word is many of the young kids are shining and the speed factor is something the Wolverines have not had pushed in practice probably in a long time if EVER. The practices would make even Bo cringe as Coach Rich is running these kids hard. He is not a big believer in running practices without pads. The strength side of the equation is also something people will shocked to see. If you do not know, Michighan brought in a top notch "strength coach" and totally changed up the gym equipment for the first time in over 30 years. Does it matter? Well, considering there are NFL players training with this guy and using the Michigan facility, I would say yes. This line opened at -7 and was bet down by the professional gamblers to 4. Does this mean they like Utah to win? Of course not, it just means they like the 7 points. Now we have a mystery Michigan team with 3 points of value off the opening number. This is a tough one, but as I hear more out of camp it will be easier for me to decide on whether to take the home team or pass all together. Considering you can't get the 7 now, not sure how anyone can take Utah since they missed the chance to play the 7. So the play as of now is Michigan or pass. No matter how much someone likes Utah, you can't win long term playing numbers 3+ points off the opener.

When I look at the rest of the board, my initial thoughts (with no serious handicappoing or offshore tips) lean toward Michigan State, Alabama and Florida. Michigan State because I think they are going to be very much improved and that number on paper makes you want to take the home team laying less than a full TD. I picture a game decided by 3 or 4. On the Alabama side, it is hard to go against any SEC team getting points. Until the other conferences can start beating the SEC, give me the points. Finally, as of now, I like Florida to kill Hawaii. Florida is already trying to play catch-up to Georgia since they are sitting at the #5 spot. Toss in the fact the winner of Ohio State/USC depending on the type of win (close or blowout) is going to get some extra credit, DESTROYING Hawaii might be a must for the Tebow led Florida offense.

Curious on what games the forum has circled for week #1? Who are your "locks" the opening weekend of college football?