College Football Picks: Go against team in 2008?

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College Football Picks: Go against team in 2008?

http://bhorner3.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/ku-football.jpg

Last season they went 12-1.
Won the Orange Bowl 24-21 as 3.5 point dogs over Virginia Tech.
Went 11-1 against the spread, cashing 92% of their games for bettors who made college football picks.
+21 on turnovers
Return 6 starters on offense and 9 on defense in 2008

AND, they have a head coach that can "out-eat" any other coach in college football.

The Kansas Jayhawks shocked the college football world by going undefeated before losing 28-36 against MIssouri to end the regular season. Lindy's has them in their top 15 and finishing at 9-3. The Sporting News has the Jayhawks sitting at #12 to start the season. College Football News has Kansas coming in as the #13 team in the nation. So what does all this mean to the sports bettor? Well, in my opinion, fade and fade away. Historically, teams that sneek up on the public AND the oddsmakers tend to come back to reality in terms of the pointspread the following season. Am I saying Kansas is going to lose all their games? Of course not. But in our world, overall record has no meaning in comparision to how a team does against the pointspread. If you took all the teams from the 2006 season who hit 75% or higher against the number, in 2007 the group average was just above 50%. There are always exceptions to the rule, but with the magazines and T.V. shows calling Kansas a Top 15 school and strong contender in the Big 12, do not expect the same line value as you were able to get last season.

Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, but one game I look at is the September 12th game at South Florida. If Kansas can win there first two games in impressive fashion, it is more than likley that this will be their first loss. People will be calling Kansas a BCS contender despite the fact South Florida is going to very tough this year. Honestly, there even could be value in their opener as 38 point favorite against Florida International. Last season the Jayhawks were favored by 33.5 and won 55-3. Why is there value in a team getting 38 who was blasted by 52 the season before? Well, besides the fact Kansas is now getting the exposure from the powers that be and the line will relfect that, the Golden Panthers return 18 starters in 2008. So 18 starters are returning and Kansas is expected to be "not as good" this season but the line is 5 points higher? Sure, Kansas can blast them again, but (at least for me), value is more important than almost anything. I will toss out any handicapping, trends or expert opinion if there is value. To be successful in gambling, there is nothing more important than an edge that possibly has a positive expectation long term.

Could Kansas repeat and have a "sick" year against the number? Of course they could. That is why they call it gambling. This is why football is the "king of kings" when it comes to gambling. No other sport can you look at a full season schedule and pick out games to handicap in advance. This is the most exciting time of the year as you get ready for those opening season games.

God bless football.

  • hilarious blog posts though in here.....lol

  • ended up 50-50. nothing special, not for sure not a repeat.

  • Just wanted to thank Kansas for making me look smart for once.

  • KU was unreal vs Spread last year.....11-1?  I think...

    Phil Steele has a great read on T/O's, and close wins year to year....how a team with inordinate ratio almost always reverses themselves every single time the following year....remarkable trend that holds up amazingly well....

    KU fits this category to a 'T'

  • I agree with JD - Vegas will reflect the fall of the Hogs.

  • The Razorbacks will NOT be Competitive Against the Upper Echelon of the SEC. They Play the TOUGHEST SEC Schedule based on W/L %.  Vegas won't put Out a High Enough Number. IMO they WILL have a LOSING ATS.

  • Chuck,

    don't you think the line will reflect Arkansas not being as tough?

  • My Go Against Team:

    ARKANSAS....Went 8-5 last yr. This year 3-9?

    1) Switching from a RUNNING Team to a Passing Team.

    2) Casey Dick is the QB!

    3) Tough Schedule

  • Lamb chops at the Bellagio: Answer= NO

  • Question is Can Mangino OUT-EAT Marco?

  • LOL. No shit Matty. Hopefully he NEVER has a sex tape come out!

  • No kidding JD - everytime I watch their games I wonder if he is gonna tumble over.  Kinda reminds me of that blueberry girl from Willy Wonka with those KU colors LOL

  • I just realized I should have used a photo of Jabba the Coach....