7. Watch out for trends and tread lightly. Most preview magazine post these almost unbelievable trends. So and So State is 8-0 vs. John Doe U the last 8 years! That is incredible you say; well go back another 8 years and you see the series goes the other way and now you have an 8-8 trend. A good matchup analysis or power rating beats a trend almost every time. There are circumstances that work, but in general you should look at every week as a something new. 8. If you are going to do your research and find that surprise team, load up in the early season. I remember when Tulane was God's gift to the sharp handicapper until Vegas started adjusting their line. Tulane returned a defense that was incredible the year before, but they had no ESPN highlights or ink in the sports page. Look for the Tulane story of 2008-09 and ride that unknown pony until you have to get off when the lines are adjusted. 9. If you have a favorite team or player, stay away from their games unless you are betting against them. No matter what you try and believe, you can not reasonably handicap a team that you love to watch and root for. You will make yourself believe that they can win regardless if there are 100 angles pointing against it. The side note on this is the value from locals when betting AGAINST a local team. 10. Multiple outs. This could be the most important of all. Getting the best possible line is what makes a successful handicapper successful. Do the math: If you are paying -125 to go from 7 to 6.5, but can get a 6.5 at -110 you are saving .15 on every lose. Mind you, that does not factor in the $ won if the game lands on a 7. Those few seconds to check for the best line can be the difference in a losing or winning day.The dos and donts are endless, so by no means are these 10 commandments to gambling. Bottom line is to keep your money and heart separate and understand the fact of life that there is a reason your bookie has a much nicer car and house than you. Would love to hear some of the tips for the forum
Words of WISDOM!!!
Very good insights JD - I will be writing about another factor later today.