What are your betting tips going into football season?

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What are your betting tips going into football season?

With the clock ticking and football around the corner, why not bust open the notebooks and start talking some pigskin. What theories or guidelines do you attempt to follow every season betting football? Even though I feel the do's and don't could be endless, here are a couple of mine:

Due to Win will make you Due to Go Broke:

 

The Due to Win theory has sent more people to the poor house than the 1929 Stock Market Crash. One of my favorite lines of any handicapper is from Phil Steele and his famous You can lose many times betting against a streak but only lose once betting on one. Just because a team has lost 5 in a row against the number does not mean they HAVE (due)  to cover that sixth game. The Martingale System or any other system for progressive wagering whether used to play blackjack or bet on sports is doomed to fail. A team dropping 7 in a row for a $100 bettor: $110, $220, $440, $880, $1760, $3520, $7070. So besides being buried, try explaining to your book why a $100 bettor has to bet $7000+ on this weekend's big game!

 

Trends, Smends:

 Even though trends can be useful ammunition in a handicappers arsenal, most of the time it can do more damage than good. I was cleaning out some old files under the stairs and found a piece I did on the National Title Game between Ohio State and Miami. My research had the Hurricanes 6-1 ATS in non-conference road games the last 3 seasons and Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in Bowl Games since 1992. Miami is the play, right? But wait, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS when playing Big East opponents since 1992. But wait, Miami is 5-1 ATS against Big 10 opponents since 1992! There is not a game on the schedule this year that with enough research you could not come up with multiple high winning % trends for either side. Another set of notes from that year found the underdog in the Clemson/Virginia series is 10-1 ATS. The game being in Clemson that year, odds are Virginia would be getting points. Play Virginia right? Problem is the Clemson game is the week after they play North Carolina. So, why does that matter we have a 10-1 trend play? Because the game after playing North Carolina they are 1-8 ATS. If there is any advice I could give in regards to trends is narrow them down to the most basic reasoning that does not require 13 variables to give itself a 90% winning percentage. When you start seeing things like road teams on grass after a double digit loss in January before a bye week when getting double digits points with Venus aligned with Mars and a rerun of the Simpsons on at 6:30, it is time to sit back and follow the famous acronym, K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple Stupid!).  

Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust:

Passing is fun to watch, but running is the key. One of my all time favorite stats is back toward the end of the 90's when out of 276 games that had a line with an actual spread winner, the team that had more rushing yards covered 202 times. Look it up, 202 times!

As mentioned to start this piece I brought up the fact there are endless amounts of advice we can share with each other. So, the conch shell is pass. What is your tip going into football season?

  • Do not take the bears.... or falcons ever..... lol  ummmm but on a serious note.... Look for those BEST O vs the BEST D matchups and take that BEST D.....  as long as the their Offense can score.... Other wise take the best O.... as long as their D aint shit....  basically... take vikings for example if they face the worst Rush D in the NFL take them obviously..  and if the vikings play a RUSHING TEAM take the vikings obviously.... just look for matchups like that and follow games closely and look for mis matches.. if u put time in it and know your teams football is MONEY IN THE BANK! just dont get stupid

  • not stats for 1 and 2 weeks since have to wait for couple games to get some stats

  • here is record  from last yr.......combined record of both angles no game counted twice and any conflict thrown out

    week 3.........8-2-1

    week 4........4-1

    week 5..........5-2-1

    week 6.........4-2-1

    week 7.........5-4

    week  8.........4-2

    week 9...........3-3

    week 10..........1-4

    week 11.........4-3

    week 12..........6-4

    week  13.......5-2

    week 14........4-3

    week 15........2-3

    week 16........5-4

    =============

    .................60-39...........61%

    the above is combined record of 2 angles I mentioned from last yr.....throw out games that conflict  and only count once win both angles on same side......not bad for about 20 min of work per week!

  • interesting info dm3. i mentioned rushing above, so nice to do something similar.

  • used last yr and will this one too, did well in 06 also.....play on team that runs for avg 30 or more per game than opp  43-27  ats last yr....NFL.....hard look at HD on mon night......Balt vs Pats last yr, Ariz vs Bears   etc

    also teams that avg 1 or more LESS turnovers per game were 24-12 ats last yr in NFL

    also, check what Dommy has from the Bible

  • I love playing a powerhouse team coming off a big loss and facing a weak opponent----especially at home.

  • One other thing that I key  on early in the CFB season is offensive lines. Some teams will be replacing 4-5 starters on the offensive line. Sometimes the guys moving in have a lot of experience so it's not a big deal. But other times the new starters are young and inexperienced. If that's the case, the red flag goes up. A good example this year is Clemson. They have a good QB, a good WR and two good backs. So the offense should be unstoppable, right? Well, maybe not. They are replacing three starters on the line, including both tackles. During spring ball their tackles were a revolving door. The left tackles along gave up EIGHT sacks in the spring game and to this point, they still don't know who will start there. That's a big problem. You can have all the offensive firepower in the world but if Cullen Harper doesn't have time to throw and James Davis and CJ Spiller have no holes to get through, it's all a moot point. Ask the Patriots what happens when an offensive line can't block? Funny how a great offense turns into an average one very quick. Just some food for thought.

  • We've got some experienced, knowledgeable & SHARP Football Minds on this Forum.

  • Thanks Sweat Hog. I'll do my best to share my information with everyone. Like you said, no one should ever follow blindly. However, with the group we have here at Pregame and all the info that flows on this site, there is no reason why we shouldn't all make a lot of money this year.

  • Just thought of a new one that I will implement this year.  Listen to what Tommy Rider has to say.  I don't mean follow his picks without doing your own homework, but take note of his insights and comments, he seems to have vast knowledge of inside the game, and you can't have too much info when handicapping.

  • Good point JD. Trends are like the Bible. If you look hard enough, you'll find something to defend your play, regardless of which side you are on.

  • Not saying you can't use trends to your advantage, but it is too easy to try and find factors to make the trend look better than it should be.

  • I agree with you guys and also love taking home dogs playing in prime-time ESPN games.  I made most of my profit in college football last season doing just that, as those games are circled as soon as the schedules come out.

    Coaching and depth are also very critical factors.  Some teams like USC have so much depth at RB that it doesn't matter who they throw in there.  A new coach also has the ability to mold a program fairly quickly, which is why trends can be overrated.

  • my best advice (for NCAAF) is to stick with once conference, and master it! with like 50-60 games goin every week, the books can't keep track of all the conferences. try to go with the smaller conferences, since vegas doesnt pay much attention to those. if you stick to one conference, you'll be fine and turn a profit. good luck!

  • I mainly use Rushing Yards, Rushing D, SOS, Turnover Ratio, 3rd-down conversions, and Penalty Yards.  I use a coulple of other stats as well, but not so much weight, such as Time of Possession, and Passing Yards/Def.  I weigh it all into a formula to get my plays.  But don't force plays, only play the ones that make most sense with or without formulas.  After I get my formula data I also do adjustment for home-field and injuries as best as I can see.  I make almost enough money in the NFL to cover my loses in NHL and MLB, hahaha.  Seriously, I do very well with the NFL, especially in the 2nd-half of the season over the last 3 seasons, before that I was a 49-51% hacker with the sport.