What JD! Are you crazy? Big Brown is a "mortal lock" to capture the Triple Crown and take home the Belmont Stakes. Well, you are probably right. Personally, it is difficult not to just concede the Triple Crown right now and hand over history to Mr. Big Brown. The problem is that I am one who tends to look at handicapping with a contrarian view. There is a reason that bookmakers tend to drive nicer cars than their clients and the owners of casino's in Las Vegas live in nicer homes than the people who play there. What is that reason? Favorites. It is in the gamblers mentality to bet on the favorite. Before jumping into a selection based off flashy ESPN stories about how dominant Big Brown is, maybe we should take a step back and look at reasons how to justify NOT to take the obvious choice in the Belmont Stakes.History: Despite all the dominant horses over the years, there has not been a Triple Crown winner since 1978 when Affirmed became only the 11th horse to complete the trifecta. The last horse to come close was Real Quiet who came up short to Victory Gallop back in 1998. Since 1989 there have been seven horses that have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes to come up a loser in the Belmont Stakes. Stamina: With three of the biggest races in horseracing within five weeks does Big Brown have what it takes to withstand the grueling 1 1/2 miles at the Belmont Stakes? At the Preakness, there was a lot of hype with Big Brown's speed advantage over the field and the fact he should win the race easily. Historically, a horse must be able to focus on maintaining themselves in the pack and making a perfect move late to take it home. Style and training should be more of a focus than speed in this one and even though Big Brown trumps the field yet again, in comparision to the speed needed in the Preakness, his opponents have more of a chance when comparing apples to oranges.Competition: Before we get out our Big Brown is #1 foam fingers, we should be realistic about his victory at the Preakness Stakes. Was the performance dominating? No question. But the fact remains almost across the board that the field he faced was one of the weakest in history (or at bare minimum, recent memory). There was not one Grade 1 horse in the Preakness Stakes. Only Gayego ever broke a Beyer rating over 100. The worst part is that a 3rd of the field was still eligible to race in an entry level allowance race! Don't forget despite Big Brown crushing the field, his Beyer Rating was anything but impressive and was the lowest at the Preakness since 1993.Does any of the above prove that we will go yet another year without a Triple Crown winner? Of course not. But, does it give us a chance to consider that Big Brown might become the 8th horse in history to come up short of the Triple Crown by failing at the Belmont Stakes? We shall see.
Love to see some thoughts from the resident forum horseracing experts.
Ruckus, no love from the horse guru?
I am certainly not an expert, but I will point out that Big Brown was being held back at the Preakness, and had he been allowed to give all he had, his speed rating would have been better, and the margin of victory would have doubled.
That said, Casino Drive had a Beyer rating of 101 in the Peter Pan race at Belmont earlier this year, and I hope he will win the Stakes. I don't know what Big Browns Beyer rating were for all of his races, and I don't know where to find them. (Though I probably could if I did a search) I had Big Brown to win the Preakness and won $26 on a $55 bet, but as you said, the competition was not there. I have $150+ to put on the Belmont, but I'm not as confident in Big Brown for this race due to the higher quality of competitors, and I wouldn't want to risk much for such a small payout. If it's a sure thing, it's free money, and risking $150 to win $50 is nothing, but I don't think the results are certain, so I'm leaning toward taking Casino Drive to place. My question is, how much better is Casino Drive than the rest of the field?
I will be playing Casino Drive to SHOW for as much money I can get out of my ATM in two weeks.
This is the toughest of them all .He already ran in both and now to run 1.5 miles his 3rd race in 5 weeks usually one of the fresh horses pull off the upset . Its just too much for them Now ive seen this trainer run a horse on a Friday (win ) run him right back in 3 days and Win again but with cheap claiming horses ,juice and at 6 furlongs . There will be no juice here (i assume ) but i say as he has the lead down the stretch and the crowd is going crazy im not sure yet but someone will be coming down the center of the track and catch him .T hat preakness field he couldve put one of his juiced up claimers in there and probably wouldve won . same way Oscar Barrera put Shifty Shiek (juiced ) against Slew of GOLD years back a claimer against a Grade 1 winner and the SLEW had to run his eyeballs out to win by a nose . (i believe that race was the met mile )
Shifty Shiek was like a 35 thous claimer at the time
Good point mike c. Horses on rest or fresh historically have done well here. I think that is the reason so many dominant horses over the years have come up short in the Belmont.
another thing is you have to remember these horses just turned 3 in January. They dont even run more mature horses that much. If it was that easy you would see trainers running their top stake horses every 2 weeks .its just to tough to do .they lose weight after every race and need time to get back to where they were at. Plus america is rooting for him. It would be nice to see but people who never bet a horse in their life are betting him and many wont even cash the ticket.Would it be nice to see a triple crown winner ? Yes, for the sake of the sport. Me im gamblingand i want value and if you like trends you have seen plenty of 2 of the 3 races won but not all 3.Besides if he beats me it wont be the 1st bet i lost (we all seen that )lol
When is the official field set?
JD they will draw next week. I have to admit from a guy who is best known for his knowledge of 2 legged fillies I am quite impressed with this read. I said in an earlier post Big Brown showed no signs of fatigue at the end of the Preakness. The big question will be how much the foot bothers him as foot injuries will hurt a horse late in the race and given the fact they will be going a mile and a half that's a huge factor. I'll have more next week on this matter.
Looking forward to your insight Marco once the field is determined.
the thing about big brown ,,,he has never been whipped from the jockey to pour it on ,,,,and if he has to get whipped from the jockey,,, good bye field
The drawing is wednesday and I will be there saturday afternoon. Can't wait
I think that I'll be playing the tri box BB,CD/BB,CD/All the rest.
Big Brown drew the #1 spot.