Why Big Brown will lose the Belmont Stakes!

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Why Big Brown will lose the Belmont Stakes!

What JD! Are you crazy? Big Brown is a "mortal lock" to capture the Triple Crown and take home the Belmont Stakes. Well, you are probably right. Personally, it is difficult not to just concede the Triple Crown right now and hand over history to Mr. Big Brown. The problem is that I am one who tends to look at handicapping with a contrarian view. There is a reason that bookmakers tend to drive nicer cars than their clients and the owners of casino's in Las Vegas live in nicer homes than the people who play there. What is that reason? Favorites. It is in the gamblers mentality to bet on the favorite. Before jumping into a selection based off flashy ESPN stories about how dominant Big Brown is, maybe we should take a step back and look at reasons how to justify NOT to take the obvious choice in the Belmont Stakes.

History: Despite all the dominant horses over the years, there has not been a Triple Crown winner since 1978 when Affirmed became only the 11th horse to complete the trifecta. The last horse to come close was Real Quiet who came up short to Victory Gallop back in 1998. Since 1989 there have been seven horses that have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes to come up a loser in the Belmont Stakes.

Stamina: With three of the biggest races in horseracing within five weeks does Big Brown have what it takes to withstand the grueling 1 1/2 miles at the Belmont Stakes? At the Preakness, there was a lot of hype with Big Brown's speed advantage over the field and the fact he should win the race easily. Historically, a horse must be able to focus on maintaining themselves in the pack and making a perfect move late to take it home. Style and training should be more of a focus than speed in this one and even though Big Brown trumps the field yet again, in comparision to the speed needed in the Preakness, his opponents have more of a chance when comparing apples to oranges.

Competition: Before we get out our Big Brown is #1 foam fingers, we should be realistic about his victory at the Preakness Stakes. Was the performance dominating? No question. But the fact remains almost across the board that the field he faced was one of the weakest in history (or at bare minimum, recent memory). There was not one Grade 1 horse in the Preakness Stakes. Only Gayego ever broke a Beyer rating over 100. The worst part is that a 3rd of the field was still eligible to race in an entry level allowance race! Don't forget despite Big Brown crushing the field, his Beyer Rating was anything but impressive and was the lowest at the Preakness since 1993.

Does any of the above prove that we will go yet another year without a Triple Crown winner? Of course not. But, does it give us a chance to consider that Big Brown might become the 8th horse in history to come up short of the Triple Crown by failing at the Belmont Stakes? We shall see.

  • Nope not the whole field, just 2-3 horses needed to pin bb on the rail--where they knew he'd be with the #I slot, and not in the lead cause that's not his mo. Curious to know who won 38-1 and how much! JD you know where there's big bucks there's crooks. Zito had more than 1 horse in the race, Right? Why? Check @ see if one was a blocker. Anyways, thats what I see and I'm sticking to it.

  • I doubt that. So much money at stake. Plus, you are getting what to fix it? Unless you had the whole field in on it to let a 38-1 shot win. Reason it is going on 31 years. Three distinct races in less than 5 weeks. Very difficult to train and be prepared.

  • JD the Real reason----------Too much bet on Big Brown.  Books are not going to take a 30Mil hit, so the fix was in -----starting with the #1 draw, the best position to keep a horse back.

  • VIDEO OF THE BELMONT-- Big Brown craps out:

    youtube.com/watch

  • Another year to wait.....

  • LOL.  That is some funny ass shit JD.  I like the analogy.  LMFAO!!!!

  • Ruckus would know better than me, but I believe track conditions are factored into the rating. So you run on optimal conditions and get a 1:55 and I run barefoot in the rain and get a 1:59, my rating would be higher.

  • Answer this one then How could Smarty Jones run a time of 1:55 and change in the Preakness and get a Beyer rating of 118 but Big Brown runs a 1:54 and change (third fastest time in the preakness in the last 8 years beating out Smarty, FunnyCide and others) and only get a Beyer rating of 100?

  • I'm looking for  a twenty dollar tri. big brown, casino drive and denis of cork. I will lay even money on the fact that the program will have it that way too.  I may also throw in  macho again as the third horse for another bet.  Two dollar bet on big brown to staple in the program  and save as a token

  • I'm looking for  a twenty dollar tri. big brown, casino drive and denis of cork. I will lay even money on the fact that the program will have it that way too.  I may also throw in  macho again as the third horse for another bet.  Two dollar bet on big brown to staple in the program  and save as a token

  • Interesting note is the driver chosen to ride Casino Drive, Edgar Prado upset two Triple Crown hopes so far at Belmont (War Emblen, Smarty Jones) while on Sarava and Birdstone.

    I am no horse racing expert, but CD has the best trainer from Japan and a driver has proven himself here. Only horse who has a chance to upset BB.

  • Big Brown drew the #1 spot.

  • I think that I'll be playing the tri box BB,CD/BB,CD/All the rest.

  • The drawing is wednesday and I will be there saturday afternoon.  Can't wait

  • the thing about big brown ,,,he has never been whipped from the jockey to pour it on ,,,,and if he has to get whipped from the jockey,,, good bye field